Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 30.2 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 5.3 %

Total Probability Staked: 23.6 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 334.6

Total Profit: +234.5

Valspar Championship

29/04/2021 - 02/05/2021

Up to date as of: 2 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 USA Justin Thomas 8 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 11.11% 8.16% 3.27% -4.89% T13
2 USA Dustin Johnson 10 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 9.09% 6.68% 3.38% -3.3% T48
3 CAN Corey Conners 20 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.5% 3.32% -0.18% T21
4 USA Patrick Reed 20 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.5% 3% -0.5% MC
5 NOR Viktor Hovland 22 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.19% 3.39% 0.2% T3 (tied w/2) 13.55 +36.6
6 ENG Paul Casey 22 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.19% 2.32% -0.88% T21
7 KOR Sungjae Im 30 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.37% 2.75% 0.38% T29 10.06
8 RSA Louis Oosthuizen 30 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.37% 1.58% -0.79% T8
9 MEX Abraham Ancer 33 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.16% 2.27% 0.11% 5 9.17 +34.9
10 USA Scottie Scheffler 33 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 2.94% 2.16% 2.26% 0.1% T29 9.17
11 CHI Joaquin Niemann 33 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.16% 2.19% 0.03% T8
12 USA Jason Kokrak 33 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.16% 1.39% -0.77% T13
13 ENG Justin Rose 33 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.16% 1.36% -0.8% MC
14 USA Russell Henley 33 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.16% 1.28% -0.88% MC
15 USA Charley Hoffman 40 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.79% 1.09% -0.71% T18
16 USA Ryan Palmer 45 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.6% 2.94% 1.34% T63 6.78
17 USA Cameron Tringale 45 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.6% 1.66% 0.06% T3 (tied w/2) 6.78 +33.9
18 USA Bubba Watson 45 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.6% 0.65% -0.95% T13
19 USA Chris Kirk 50 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.44% 2.42% 0.98% MC 6.12
20 ARG Emiliano Grillo 50 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.44% 1.3% -0.14% MC
21 USA Kevin Na 55 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.31% 1.88% 0.57% T29 5.57
22 USA Max Homa 66 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.1% 1.45% 0.35% T6 (tied w/2) 4.66 +33.1
23 USA Kevin Streelman 66 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.1% 0.87% -0.22% MC
24 USA Talor Gooch 70 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.03% 0.81% -0.23% MC
25 USA Lucas Glover 70 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.03% 0.75% -0.28% T48
26 USA Keegan Bradley 70 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.03% 0.71% -0.32% 2
27 USA Gary Woodland 70 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.03% 0.47% -0.56% MC
28 USA Charles Howell III 90 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.81% 0.92% 0.11% T39 3.43
29 CAN Adam Hadwin 90 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.81% 0.56% -0.25% MC
30 USA Denny McCarthy 90 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.81% 0.55% -0.26% T39
31 USA Brandt Snedeker 90 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.81% 0.54% -0.27% T11
32 USA Kevin Kisner 100 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.73% 1.4% 0.67% MC 3.09
33 USA Sam Burns 100 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.73% 0.91% 0.18% 1 3.09 +196.2
34 USA Lanto Griffin 100 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.73% 0.82% 0.09% MC 3.09
35 ENG Danny Willett 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.73% 0.55% -0.17% MC
36 USA Mackenzie Hughes 110 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.66% 1.59% 0.93% MC 2.81
37 USA Doug Ghim 110 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.66% 0.81% 0.14% MC 2.81
38 AUS Cameron Davis 110 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.66% 0.57% -0.09% MC
39 RSA Branden Grace 125 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.58% 1.66% 1.07% T54 2.48
40 ENG Ian Poulter 125 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.58% 0.81% 0.22% T21 2.48
41 ENG Sam Horsfield 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.58% 0.76% 0.18% MC 2.48
42 RSA Erik van Rooyen 125 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.58% 0.75% 0.17% MC 2.48
43 SWE Alexander Noren 125 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.58% 0.53% -0.05% T21
44 RSA Charl Schwartzel 125 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.58% 0.5% -0.08% T21
45 SWE Henrik Stenson 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.58% 0.22% -0.36% T63
46 USA Patton Kizzire 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.49% 1.01% 0.52% T60
47 USA Matthew NeSmith 150 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.49% 0.86% 0.37% T21
48 USA Tom Hoge 150 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.49% 0.8% 0.31% MC
49 SVK Rory Sabbatini 150 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.49% 0.58% 0.09% MC
50 USA Zach Johnson 150 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.49% 0.55% 0.07% T29
51 USA James Hahn 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.49% 0.52% 0.03% MC
52 USA John Huh 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.49% 0.51% 0.03% MC
53 USA Keith Mitchell 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.49% 0.41% -0.08% 69
54 USA Phil Mickelson 150 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.49% 0.35% -0.13% MC
55 USA Ryan Moore 150 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.49% 0.33% -0.16% T39
56 USA Peter Uihlein 150 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.49% 0.23% -0.26% T57
57 USA Luke List 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.42% 0.51% 0.09% MC
58 USA Richy Werenski 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.42% 0.47% 0.05% MC
59 USA Sam Ryder 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.42% 0.43% 0.01% MC
60 ENG Tom Lewis 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.42% 0.38% -0.04% T48
61 VEN Jhonattan Vegas 200 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.37% 0.7% 0.33% T48
62 USA Chase Seiffert 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.37% 0.66% 0.3% MC
63 COL Camilo Villegas 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.37% 0.52% 0.15% T11
64 USA Wyndham Clark 200 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.37% 0.47% 0.1% T60
65 SCO Martin Laird 200 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.37% 0.45% 0.09% MC
66 USA JT Poston 200 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.37% 0.45% 0.08% T54
67 KOR Kyounghoon Lee 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.37% 0.43% 0.06% T29
68 USA Adam Schenk 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.37% 0.35% -0.02% T18
69 SCO Russell Knox 200 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.37% 0.35% -0.02% T21
70 KOR Byeong Hun An 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.37% 0.27% -0.09% 67
71 USA Doc Redman 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.37% 0.17% -0.19% T39
72 USA Adam Long 250 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.29% 0.73% 0.43% MC
73 USA Andrew Putnam 250 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.29% 0.7% 0.41% MC
74 USA Kyle Stanley 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.67% 0.38% T39
75 USA Wesley Bryan 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.66% 0.37% T48
76 CAN Roger Sloan 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.5% 0.21% MC
77 CAN Nick Taylor 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.47% 0.18% MC
78 ESP Rafael Cabrera Bello 250 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.29% 0.41% 0.12% MC
79 NIR Graeme McDowell 250 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.29% 0.27% -0.03% MC
80 USA Scott Piercy 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.26% -0.03% MC
81 USA Joseph Bramlett 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.24% -0.05% T63
82 USA Pat Perez 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.24% -0.05% T29
83 USA Scott Stallings 250 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.24% -0.05% T29
84 USA Tyler Duncan 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.22% -0.07% T39
85 USA Jamie Lovemark 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.18% -0.11% MC
86 NOR Kristoffer Ventura 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.14% -0.16% MC
87 USA Andrew Landry 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.66% 0.41% MC
88 USA Brandon Hagy 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.58% 0.33% T60
89 USA Brian Stuard 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.49% 0.25% MC
90 AUS Cameron Percy 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.24% 0.45% 0.21% MC
91 USA Grayson Murray 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.42% 0.17% MC
92 USA Patrick Rodgers 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.24% 0.4% 0.16% MC
93 SWE Henrik Norlander 300 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.24% 0.35% 0.1% T48
94 USA Chesson Hadley 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.32% 0.08% MC
95 USA Chez Reavie 300 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.24% 0.29% 0.04% MC
96 USA Jason Dufner 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.23% -0.01% T57
97 USA Vincent Whaley 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.22% -0.02% T29
98 USA J.B. Holmes 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.15% -0.1% 68
99 USA Bo Hoag 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.21% 0.68% 0.47% MC
100 PUR Rafael Campos 350 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.21% 0.59% 0.38% MC
101 USA Mark Hubbard 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.21% 0.49% 0.28% MC
102 USA Troy Merritt 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.21% 0.34% 0.13% T8
103 USA Ryan Armour 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.21% 0.27% 0.06% MC
104 NZL Danny Lee 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.21% 0.25% 0.04% T21
105 AUS Aaron Baddeley 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.21% 0.23% 0.02% MC
106 USA Vaughn Taylor 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.37% 0.19% T6
107 USA Austin Cook 400 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.28% 0.1% MC
108 USA Peter Malnati 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.18% 0.28% 0.1% MC
109 USA Hudson Swafford 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.25% 0.06% MC
110 USA Bronson Burgoon 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.23% 0.05% T13
111 USA Brian Gay 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.17% -0.01% MC
112 CAN David Hearn 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.17% -0.02% MC
113 USA Kramer Hickok 500 (GentingBet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.4% 0.25% T57
114 USA Scott Harrington 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.33% 0.19% DQ
115 JPN Satoshi Kodaira 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.3% 0.15% MC
116 USA Jimmy Walker 500 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.3% 0.15% T29
117 USA Jim Herman 500 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.28% 0.13% MC
118 USA Scott Brown 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.28% 0.13% T39
119 USA Robby Shelton 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.27% 0.12% MC
120 CAN Michael Gligic 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.25% 0.1% T29
121 USA Rob Oppenheim 500 (GentingBet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.24% 0.1% MC
122 USA Kevin Tway 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.2% 0.05% MC
123 USA Sean O'Hair 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.18% 0.03% MC
124 USA D.J. Trahan 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.15% 0% MC
125 ENG Luke Donald 500 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.14% -0.01% T54
126 USA Beau Hossler 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.12% -0.02% T39
127 SWE Jonas Blixt 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.1% -0.05% MC
128 USA Chase Koepka 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.12% 0.38% 0.25% T63
129 USA Ted Potter-jr 600 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.12% 0.22% 0.1% T18
130 USA Kelly Kraft 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.12% 0.11% -0.02% MC
131 USA Hank Lebioda 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.1% 0.29% 0.2% T13
132 USA Ryan Brehm 750 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.26% 0.16% MC
133 USA Nick Watney 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.1% 0.14% 0.04% MC
134 DEN Sebastian Cappelen 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.1% 0.13% 0.03% MC
135 USA William McGirt 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.1% 0.09% -0.01% MC
136 USA Michael Kim 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.07% 0.13% 0.06% MC
137 CHN Zhang Xinjun 1000 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.1% 0.02% MC
138 SWE Daniel Chopra 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.07% 0.09% 0.02% MC
139 USA John Augenstein 1250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.08% 0.06% 0.47% 0.41% MC
140 USA Bo Van Pelt 1250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.08% 0.06% 0.29% 0.23% T39
141 USA Hunter Mahan 1250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.08% 0.06% 0.11% 0.05% MC
142 USA Martin Trainer 1500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.05% 0.17% 0.12% MC
143 USA Kevin Stadler 1500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.05% 0.12% 0.07% MC
144 USA Brad Adamonis 1500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.05% 0.1% 0.05% MC
145 USA D.A. Points 2000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.15% 0.11% MC
146 USA Rod Perry 2500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.04% 0.03% 0.1% 0.07% MC
147 KOR K.J. Choi 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
148 THA Kiradech Aphibarnrat 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
149 KOR Sunghoon Kang 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
150 NZL Tim Wilkinson 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
151 AUS Rhein Gibson 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
152 ARG Nelson Ledesma 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
153 USA J.J Spaun 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
154 DEN Rasmus Hojgaard 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
155 USA Michael Visacki 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
156 USA Jordan Hahn 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 30.2 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 5.3 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 William Hill 8 @ 1/5 54.1% 19.3%
2 Betfred 8 @ 1/5 56% 20.9%
3 Skybet 8 @ 1/5 60% 24.1%
4 Betfair Sportsbook 8 @ 1/5 61.1% 24.8%
5 Paddy Power 8 @ 1/5 61.1% 24.8%
6 VBet 5 @ 1/4 43.9% 28.3%
7 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 43.9% 28.4%
8 Boyle Sports 10 @ 1/5 92.5% 29.7%
9 Betway 7 @ 1/5 59.8% 33.9%
10 Sporting Index 5 @ 1/4 52.9% 36.4%
11 888Sport 5 @ 1/4 57.6% 40.5%
12 Redzone 5 @ 1/4 58.3% 41.3%
13 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 58.3% 41.3%
14 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 58.3% 41.3%
15 Mansion Bet 5 @ 1/4 58.3% 41.3%
16 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 59.7% 45.6%
17 GentingBet 6 @ 1/5 60.2% 46%
18 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 61.2% 47%