Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 22.4 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 8.2 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.7 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 94.9

Total Profit: -5.2

DP WORLD TOUR CHAMPIONSHIP, DUBAI

21/11/2019 - 24/11/2019

Up to date as of: 4 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 NIR Rory McIlroy 4 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 20% 16.34% 6.68% -9.66% 4
2 ESP Jon Rahm 6 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 14.29% 11.67% 5.62% -6.05% 1
3 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 16 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 5.88% 4.81% 4.02% -0.78% 2
4 ENG Justin Rose 18 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 5.26% 4.3% 4.51% 0.21% T20
5 USA Patrick Reed 18 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 5.26% 4.3% 3.57% -0.73% T28
6 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 20 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.89% 3.95% 0.05% 46
7 RSA Louis Oosthuizen 22 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.55% 3.2% -0.35% T20
8 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 22 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 4.35% 3.55% 3.12% -0.43% 9
9 SWE Henrik Stenson 28 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 3.45% 2.82% 3.45% 0.63% T44 12.44
10 ENG Paul Casey 28 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 3.45% 2.82% 3.14% 0.32% T18 12.44
11 AUT Bernd Wiesberger 30 (SportPesa: 5 @ 1/4) 3.23% 2.64% 4.21% 1.58% T28 11.64
12 IRL Shane Lowry 33 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.94% 2.4% 3.36% 0.96% T12 10.61
13 AUT Matthias Schwab 33 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.94% 2.4% 2.5% 0.09% T20
14 SCO Robert MacIntyre 35 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 2.78% 2.27% 2.52% 0.25% T14
15 ENG Danny Willett 40 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.99% 3.36% 1.37% 5 8.8 +48.4
16 RSA Erik van Rooyen 45 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 2.17% 1.78% 3.21% 1.43% T28 7.85
17 ESP Rafael Cabrera Bello 50 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.6% 2.35% 0.74% T20 7.08
18 USA Kurt Kitayama 50 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.6% 1.57% -0.03% 48
19 ITA Francesco Molinari 50 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.6% 1.22% -0.38% T40
20 ESP Sergio Garcia 50 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.6% 1.07% -0.53% T6
21 ENG Matt Wallace 55 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.46% 1.69% 0.23% T28
22 FRA Victor Perez 55 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.46% 1.44% -0.02% T20
23 BEL Thomas Pieters 55 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.46% 0.91% -0.55% T6
24 ENG Lee Westwood 60 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.34% 1.67% 0.33% T38 5.92
25 NED Joost Luiten 60 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.34% 1.47% 0.13% T20
26 SWE Marcus Kinhult 66 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.22% 2.49% 1.28% T16 5.39
27 BEL Thomas Detry 66 (Black Type: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.22% 1.33% 0.11% T28
28 ENG Tom Lewis 66 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.22% 1.06% -0.16% T6
29 ENG Paul Waring 70 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.41% 1.15% 1.23% 0.08% T14
30 ENG Ian Poulter 90 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.9% 1.08% 0.18% T44
31 FRA Michael Lorenzo-Vera 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.81% 2.06% 1.25% 3 3.58 +46.5
32 AUS Jason Scrivener 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.74% 0.6% -0.14% T10
33 ITA Andrea Pavan 125 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.65% 2.14% 1.49% T49 2.87
34 RSA Christiaan Bezuidenhout 125 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.65% 1.54% 0.89% T12 2.87
35 ESP Adria Arnaus 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.65% 1.17% 0.52% T28 2.87
36 FRA Romain Langasque 125 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.65% 1.1% 0.45% T40 2.87
37 ENG Jordan L Smith 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.65% 0.97% 0.32% 47 2.87
38 FRA Benjamin Hebert 150 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.54% 1.69% 1.15% T38
39 ITA Guido Migliozzi 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.54% 1.37% 0.83% T16
40 ESP Jorge Campillo 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.54% 1.02% 0.48% T18
41 ENG Aaron Rai 150 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.54% 1% 0.46% T40
42 FIN Mikko Korhonen 175 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.46% 0.95% 0.48% T28
43 RSA Justin Harding 175 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.46% 0.5% 0.04% T36
44 ENG Andy Sullivan 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.41% 1.02% 0.61% T10
45 ENG Matthew Southgate 250 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.33% 0.53% 0.2% T28
46 RSA Richard Sterne 300 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.27% 0.61% 0.34% T20
47 USA David Lipsky 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.23% 0.35% 0.11% T20
48 AUS Scott Hend 500 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.16% 0.37% 0.21% T49
49 CHN Li Haotong 0% 0% 0% 0% 43

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 22.4 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 8.2 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Ladbrokes 5 @ 1/4 34.4% 20.6%
2 Coral 5 @ 1/4 34.4% 20.6%
3 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 35% 21.2%
4 William Hill 5 @ 1/4 35.7% 21.8%
5 Sportingbet 5 @ 1/4 36.2% 22.2%
6 Skybet 5 @ 1/4 37% 22.9%
7 Bet Victor 5 @ 1/4 37.8% 23.4%
8 Black Type 5 @ 1/4 38.3% 24.1%
9 Betfred 6 @ 1/5 36.5% 24.9%
10 SportPesa 5 @ 1/4 39.4% 25.1%
11 Betfair Sportsbook 7 @ 1/5 48.3% 25.3%
12 Paddy Power 7 @ 1/5 49.3% 26.2%
13 Betway 5 @ 1/4 41.1% 26.6%
14 Unibet 5 @ 1/4 41.7% 26.9%
15 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 42.2% 27.6%
16 MoPlay 5 @ 1/4 42.2% 27.6%
17 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 42.2% 27.6%
18 Boyle Sports 6 @ 1/5 39.8% 28.1%
19 Marathon Bet 5 @ 1/4 43.8% 29%