Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 37.3 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 12.9 %

Total Probability Staked: 23.0 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.2

Total Won: 296.7

Total Profit: +196.5

THE NORTHERN TRUST

08/08/2019 - 11/08/2019

Up to date as of: 4 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 USA Brooks Koepka 8 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 11.11% 7.92% 4.82% -3.1% T30
2 NIR Rory McIlroy 11 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 8.33% 5.94% 3.91% -2.03% T6
3 USA Dustin Johnson 16 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 5.88% 4.19% 2.11% -2.09% T24
4 ESP Jon Rahm 16 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 5.88% 4.19% 1.48% -2.71% T3
5 ENG Justin Rose 20 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.39% 1.64% -1.76% T10
6 USA Justin Thomas 20 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.39% 1.5% -1.89% T12
7 USA Patrick Cantlay 22 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.1% 1.9% -1.2% T12
8 USA Rickie Fowler 22 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.1% 1.71% -1.39% MC
9 USA Webb Simpson 25 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.74% 2.6% -0.14% T18
10 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 25 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.74% 1.87% -0.87% T43
11 USA Tiger Woods 28 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.46% 2.04% -0.42% WD
12 USA Xander Schauffele 33 (Sportingbet: 7 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.1% 1.26% -0.83% MC
13 ITA Francesco Molinari 40 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.74% 1.26% -0.48% 82
14 USA Patrick Reed 45 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.55% 1.61% 0.06% 1 6.75 +189
15 AUS Adam Scott 45 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.55% 1.44% -0.11% 5 6.75 +33.8
16 USA Tony Finau 45 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.55% 1.17% -0.38% T30
17 USA Collin Morikawa 45 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.55% 0.49% -1.05% T52
18 USA Matt Kuchar 50 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.4% 1.61% 0.21% MC 6.09
19 AUS Jason Day 50 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.4% 1.05% -0.35% MC
20 USA Bryson DeChambeau 50 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.4% 0.95% -0.44% T24
21 USA Jordan Spieth 55 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.27% 1.9% 0.63% T6 (tied w/4) 5.54 +24.9
22 JPN Hideki Matsuyama 55 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.27% 1.65% 0.37% T30 5.54
23 USA Billy Horschel 60 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.17% 1.37% 0.2% T21 5.09
24 IRL Shane Lowry 66 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.06% 1.93% 0.86% T52 4.64
25 RSA Louis Oosthuizen 66 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.06% 1.58% 0.52% T6 (tied w/4) 4.64 +24.7
26 USA Gary Woodland 66 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.06% 0.77% -0.29% T52
27 AUS Marc Leishman 80 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.88% 1.27% 0.39% MC 3.83
28 SVK Rory Sabbatini 80 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.88% 1.18% 0.3% T43 3.83
29 ENG Ian Poulter 80 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.88% 1.11% 0.24% T10 3.83
30 KOR Byeong Hun An 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.88% 1.06% 0.18% T38 3.83
31 USA Brandt Snedeker 90 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.78% 1.24% 0.45% T6 (tied w/4) 3.41 +24.3
32 ESP Sergio Garcia 100 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.71% 1.04% 0.33% MC 3.08
33 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 100 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.71% 1% 0.29% T59 3.08
34 USA Jason Kokrak 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.71% 0.96% 0.26% T12 3.08
35 USA Kevin Kisner 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.71% 0.9% 0.19% T12 3.08
36 USA Bubba Watson 100 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.71% 0.88% 0.18% MC 3.08
37 KOR Sungjae Im 100 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.71% 0.87% 0.16% T38 3.08
38 USA Charles Howell III 100 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.71% 0.75% 0.05% MC 3.08
39 USA Chez Reavie 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.71% 0.57% -0.13% T38
40 CHI Joaquin Niemann 100 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.71% 0.57% -0.14% T30
41 AUS Cameron Smith 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.71% 0.53% -0.17% T59
42 USA Matthew Wolff 100 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.71% 0.44% -0.27% T71
43 USA Jim Furyk 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.57% 1.19% 0.63% T52 2.47
44 USA Lucas Glover 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.57% 0.85% 0.28% T43 2.47
45 USA Ryan Moore 125 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.57% 0.66% 0.1% T18 2.47
46 USA Andrew Putnam 125 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.57% 0.64% 0.08% T12 2.47
47 USA JT Poston 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.57% 0.52% -0.05% T59 2.47
48 KOR Siwoo Kim 125 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.57% 0.51% -0.06% 84 2.47
49 USA Brian Harman 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.95% 0.48% T52
50 ENG Danny Willett 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.87% 0.4% T24
51 USA Scott Piercy 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.81% 0.34% T67
52 USA Phil Mickelson 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.7% 0.23% T71
53 USA Kyle Stanley 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.69% 0.21% T71
54 USA Keegan Bradley 150 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.67% 0.2% T64
55 USA Aaron Wise 150 (William Hill: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.65% 0.18% T43
56 ARG Emiliano Grillo 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.47% 0.63% 0.16% MC
57 USA Russell Henley 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.62% 0.15% T59
58 USA Ryan Palmer 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.51% 0.04% T77
59 CAN Adam Hadwin 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.43% -0.04% T43
60 MEX Abraham Ancer 175 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.4% 1.07% 0.66% 2
61 USA Kevin Na 175 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.4% 0.93% 0.53% T77
62 USA Kevin Streelman 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.4% 0.56% 0.15% MC
63 SCO Martin Laird 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.4% 0.52% 0.11% 83
64 RSA Dylan Frittelli 175 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.4% 0.41% 0.01% T43
65 USA Bud Cauley 175 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.4% 0.4% -0.01% WD
66 RSA Branden Grace 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.4% 0.32% -0.09% T30
67 SCO Russell Knox 200 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.75% 0.4% MC
68 USA Vaughn Taylor 200 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.71% 0.35% T30
69 USA Cameron Tringale 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.63% 0.28% MC
70 USA Nate Lashley 200 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.51% 0.16% MC
71 AUT Sepp Straka 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.48% 0.13% MC
72 USA Brice Garnett 200 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.44% 0.08% MC
73 USA Denny McCarthy 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.32% -0.04% MC
74 USA Nick Watney 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.27% -0.08% T59
75 USA Keith Mitchell 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.92% 0.64% T64
76 NIR Graeme McDowell 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.69% 0.4% MC
77 USA Troy Merritt 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.68% 0.4% T12
78 USA J.B. Holmes 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.67% 0.38% T52
79 USA Charley Hoffman 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.65% 0.37% T77
80 THA Kiradech Aphibarnrat 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.56% 0.28% T71
81 CAN Corey Conners 250 (Marathon Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.28% 0.47% 0.18% T21
82 USA Mackenzie Hughes 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.44% 0.16% T67
83 VEN Jhonattan Vegas 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.42% 0.13% T38
84 USA Andrew Landry 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.39% 0.1% T30
85 USA Brian Stuard 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.55% 0.32% T52
86 USA Ryan Armour 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.5% 0.26% T43
87 USA Wyndham Clark 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.49% 0.25% T18
88 CAN Roger Sloan 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.44% 0.21% T64
89 USA Peter Malnati 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.43% 0.19% MC
90 USA Luke List 300 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.35% 0.12% T77
91 USA J.J Spaun 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.34% 0.1% MC
92 USA Harold Varner III 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.29% 0.05% T3
93 CAN Nick Taylor 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.29% 0.05% MC
94 USA Sam Ryder 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.23% 0% MC
95 TPE C.T. Pan 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.2% 0.61% 0.41% T24
96 AUS Matt Jones 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.2% 0.54% 0.33% T30
97 USA Patton Kizzire 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.2% 0.35% 0.14% MC
98 USA Joel Dahmen 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.2% 0.32% 0.11% T67
99 USA Matt Every 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.2% 0.31% 0.11% MC
100 USA Adam Schenk 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.2% 0.26% 0.06% T24
101 USA Scott Stallings 400 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.47% 0.29% MC
102 MEX Carlos Ortiz 400 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.45% 0.27% T67
103 USA Scott Brown 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.37% 0.19% 76
104 USA Michael Thompson 400 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.33% 0.15% MC
105 NZL Danny Lee 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.18% 0.32% 0.14% 81
106 USA Pat Perez 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.18% 0.3% 0.13% MC
107 USA Kevin Tway 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.24% 0.06% T24
108 USA Chesson Hadley 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.24% 0.06% T43
109 USA Max Homa 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.53% 0.38% T38
110 USA Brian Gay 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.14% 0.44% 0.3% MC
111 AUS Aaron Baddeley 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.44% 0.29% WD
112 USA Kelly Kraft 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.43% 0.29% MC
113 SWE Jonas Blixt 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.14% 0.41% 0.27% MC
114 USA Chris Stroud 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.36% 0.22% WD
115 KOR Kyounghoon Lee 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.14% 0.35% 0.21% MC
116 USA Cameron Champ 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.22% 0.08% T21
117 USA Talor Gooch 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.21% 0.07% T71
118 USA Patrick Rodgers 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.14% 0.21% 0.07% MC
119 USA Adam Long 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.12% 0.44% 0.32% MC
120 KOR Sunghoon Kang 0% 0% 0.57% 0% MC
121 COL Sebastian Munoz 0% 0% 0.3% 0% T43

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 37.3 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 12.9 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Betfair Sportsbook 8 @ 1/5 54.6% 19.9%
2 Skybet 8 @ 1/5 55.4% 20.5%
3 Paddy Power 8 @ 1/5 58.2% 22.7%
4 Boyle Sports 8 @ 1/5 64.6% 27.7%
5 Betfred 7 @ 1/5 56.7% 31.3%
6 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 47.9% 32%
7 Sportingbet 7 @ 1/5 59.4% 33.6%
8 Marathon Bet 5 @ 1/4 52% 35.6%
9 Betway 7 @ 1/5 62.8% 36.4%
10 Coral 7 @ 1/5 65.9% 39.1%
11 Redzone 5 @ 1/4 58.8% 41.7%
12 SportPesa 5 @ 1/4 58.8% 41.7%
13 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 58.8% 41.7%
14 Bethard 5 @ 1/4 58.8% 41.7%
15 MoPlay 5 @ 1/4 58.8% 41.7%
16 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 55.9% 42.2%
17 Ladbrokes 5 @ 1/4 59.5% 42.3%
18 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 59.5% 45.4%
19 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 59.5% 45.4%
20 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 60.9% 46.8%
21 Black Type 5 @ 1/4 64.5% 46.8%