Open d'Italia 2026 - Betting Preview, Odds and Result
See what we tipped for the Open d'Italia
Below you can see our model's numbers in full for the top three in the market. Members see them for every player, plus the bets we actually advised, the stake for each one, and the bookmaker with the best each-way terms - in their inbox every Tuesday morning.
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Every tip published since 2020, settled and shown in full on the track record page.
Open d'Italia 2026 at a glance
The market, read in numbers
The bookmakers made Joaquin Niemann favourite for the Open d'Italia at 14/1. That is an implied 6.7% before the margin comes out, and 5.0% once the book is normalised back to 100%. On that number no player is anywhere near a standout, and the market is wide open, with David Puig next in at 16/1.
The five shortest players in the market share 19.4% of the win chance between them, which leaves 80.6% spread across the other 149 priced players. That is an unusually flat market. When no small group of players dominates, a model that prices the whole field has more room to disagree with the bookmakers. 111 players are priced at 100/1 or bigger.
Take the best price available on every player and the overround on this market is 31.5%, or 16.7% once the each-way terms are valued properly. The cheapest single bookmaker on this event is Boyle Sports at 39.6% (6 @ 1/5), so taking the best price player by player is worth 8.1 points of margin before a single selection is made. We explain how the number is built in what are the bookies' margins on golf, and which books are worth having an account with in which bookie is best for golf.
Our model prices every player in the field from world ranking points, recent form and the strength of the field, then compares that price against the market. Where our number is higher than the bookmakers', there is an edge - that is the Discrepancy column in the table below. Picks are the players with the biggest edge once the each-way terms on offer are taken into account, which is why a 150/1 shot at 1/5 odds and 8 places can be a better bet than the same player at 150/1 and 5 places elsewhere.
Open d'Italia 2026 odds
Best available outright prices across the bookmakers we track, with the implied chance each price carries. Normalised probability removes the bookmakers' margin so the column sums to 100%.
| # | Player | Odds | ImpliedImpl. | NormalisedNorm. | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Joaquin Niemann
|
14/1 | 6.7% | 5.0% | 3rd |
| 2 |
David Puig
|
16/1 | 5.9% | 4.4% | 48th |
| 3 |
Patrick Reed
|
18/1 | 5.3% | 3.9% | 45th |
| 4 |
Thomas Detry
|
22/1 | 4.3% | 3.2% | 114th |
| 5 |
Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra
|
25/1 | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1st |
| 6 |
Angel Ayora
|
28/1 | 3.4% | 2.6% | 5th |
| 7 |
Daniel Hillier
|
30/1 | 3.2% | 2.4% | 78th |
| 8 |
Branden Grace
|
33/1 | 2.9% | 2.2% | 155th |
| 9 |
Matt Wallace
|
33/1 | 2.9% | 2.2% | 2nd |
| 10 |
Tom McKibbin
|
33/1 | 2.9% | 2.2% | 25th |
| 11 |
Oliver Lindell
|
35/1 | 2.8% | 2.1% | 6th |
| 12 |
Bernd Wiesberger
|
45/1 | 2.2% | 1.6% | 126th |
| 13 |
Mikael Lindberg
|
45/1 | 2.2% | 1.6% | 110th |
| 14 |
Julien Guerrier
|
50/1 | 2.0% | 1.5% | - |
| 15 |
Casey Jarvis
|
50/1 | 2.0% | 1.5% | 115th |
| 16 |
Kota Yuta Kaneko
|
50/1 | 2.0% | 1.5% | 11th |
| 17 |
Francesco Molinari
|
55/1 | 1.8% | 1.3% | 127th |
| 18 |
Francesco Laporta
|
55/1 | 1.8% | 1.3% | 108th |
| 19 |
Antoine Rozner
|
55/1 | 1.8% | 1.3% | 60th |
| 20 |
Dan Bradbury
|
55/1 | 1.8% | 1.3% | 41st |
Prices were recorded before the tournament started and are not live. Always check the current price with your bookmaker.
How the Open d'Italia 2026 finished
Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra won the Open d'Italia, having started the week at 25/1 - an implied 3.8% chance. The favourite, Joaquin Niemann, finished 3rd.
| Pos | Player | Starting odds | Implied chanceImpl. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra
|
25/1 | 3.8% |
| 2 |
Matt Wallace
|
33/1 | 2.9% |
| 3 |
Joaquin Niemann
|
14/1 | 6.7% |
| 4 |
Joakim Lagergren
|
200/1 | 0.5% |
| 5 |
Angel Ayora
|
28/1 | 3.4% |
| 6 |
Richie Ramsay
|
350/1 | 0.3% |
| 6 |
Jeff Winther
|
250/1 | 0.4% |
| 6 |
Oliver Lindell
|
35/1 | 2.8% |
| 6 |
Daniel Da Costa Rodrigues
|
200/1 | 0.5% |
| 10 |
Nicolai Von Dellingshausen
|
350/1 | 0.3% |
Our model's numbers for the Open d'Italia
The top of the market, with our model's win probability (Predicted) and how far it disagrees with the bookmakers (Discrepancy). The first three rows are shown in full so you can see exactly what the model produces. Odds and implied probabilities are public - the two green columns are ours.
Bookmaker margins and each-way terms
What each bookmaker is charging on this market, and the each-way terms they are offering. True overround values the extra places properly, so it is the number to compare - the lower it is, the more the bookmaker is giving back. How we calculate it.
| # | Bookie | Terms | Overround | True Overround |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boyle Sports | 6 @ 1/5 | 55.2% | 39.6% |
| 2 | Bet365 | 5 @ 1/4 | 59% | 40.3% |
| 3 | Betfred | 5 @ 1/4 | 60.1% | 41.3% |
| 4 | Ladbrokes | 7 @ 1/5 | 72.2% | 42.1% |
| 5 | Coral | 7 @ 1/5 | 72.2% | 42.1% |
| 6 | BetVictor | 5 @ 1/4 | 61% | 42.1% |
| 7 | 888Sport | 5 @ 1/4 | 63.5% | 44.3% |
| 8 | Skybet | 5 @ 1/4 | 66.6% | 47% |
| 9 | Paddy Power | 5 @ 1/4 | 66.6% | 47% |
| 10 | BetMGM UK | 6 @ 1/5 | 64.1% | 47.5% |
| 11 | William Hill | 5 @ 1/4 | 68.1% | 48.4% |
| 12 | BetGoodwin | 5 @ 1/4 | 71.2% | 51.1% |
| 13 | BetAhoy | 5 @ 1/4 | 71.2% | 51.1% |
| 14 | Spreadex | 6 @ 1/5 | 68.6% | 51.8% |
| 15 | Sporting Index | 6 @ 1/5 | 68.6% | 51.8% |
| 16 | Betway | 6 @ 1/5 | 69.9% | 52.7% |
| 17 | Unibet | 1 @ 1/1 | 54.1% | 54.1% |
| 18 | QuinnBet | 6 @ 1/5 | 73.3% | 55.8% |
Open d'Italia 2026 betting FAQ
Who was favourite for the Open d'Italia 2026?
Joaquin Niemann was the outright favourite at 14/1, which is an implied chance of 6.7% before the bookmakers' margin is removed and 5.0% after. David Puig was next in the market at 16/1.
Who won the Open d'Italia 2026?
Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra won the Open d'Italia 2026, starting the week at 25/1.
When was the Open d'Italia 2026 played?
The Open d'Italia started on Thursday 25 June 2026 and finished on Sunday 28 June 2026. It is a DP World Tour event.
How big was the Open d'Italia field?
164 players were in the field, 154 of them priced by the bookmakers. 111 of those were 100/1 or bigger, which is where most each-way value is found.
What margin do the bookmakers take on the Open d'Italia?
Taking the best price available on every player cuts the overround to 31.5%, against 39.6% at Boyle Sports, the cheapest single bookmaker on this market. Shopping the whole market is worth more than most tips are.
Where can I get Open d'Italia betting tips?
GolfForecast publishes its Open d'Italia picks each Tuesday morning, with the stake for each bet and the bookmaker offering the best each-way terms. The 30-day trial is free.
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