Magical Kenya Open presented by absa 2026 - Betting Preview, Odds and Result
See what we tipped for the Magical Kenya Open presented by absa
Below you can see our model's numbers in full for the top three in the market. Members see them for every player, plus the bets we actually advised, the stake for each one, and the bookmaker with the best each-way terms - in their inbox every Tuesday morning.
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Every tip published since 2020, settled and shown in full on the track record page.
Magical Kenya Open presented by absa 2026 at a glance
The market, read in numbers
The bookmakers made Angel Ayora favourite for the Magical Kenya Open presented by absa at 11/1. That is an implied 8.3% before the margin comes out, and 7.3% once the book is normalised back to 100%. On that number this is a moderate favourite rather than a standout, with Mikael Lindberg next in at 33/1.
The five shortest players in the market share 17.5% of the win chance between them, which leaves 82.5% spread across the other 132 priced players. That is an unusually flat market. When no small group of players dominates, a model that prices the whole field has more room to disagree with the bookmakers. 101 players are priced at 100/1 or bigger.
Take the best price available on every player and the overround on this market is 11.2%, or 4.7% once the each-way terms are valued properly. The cheapest single bookmaker on this event is Skybet at 14.3% (1 @ 1/1), so taking the best price player by player is worth 3.1 points of margin before a single selection is made. We explain how the number is built in what are the bookies' margins on golf, and which books are worth having an account with in which bookie is best for golf.
Our model prices every player in the field from world ranking points, recent form and the strength of the field, then compares that price against the market. Where our number is higher than the bookmakers', there is an edge - that is the Discrepancy column in the table below. Picks are the players with the biggest edge once the each-way terms on offer are taken into account, which is why a 150/1 shot at 1/5 odds and 8 places can be a better bet than the same player at 150/1 and 5 places elsewhere.
Magical Kenya Open presented by absa 2026 odds
Best available outright prices across the bookmakers we track, with the implied chance each price carries. Normalised probability removes the bookmakers' margin so the column sums to 100%.
| # | Player | Odds | ImpliedImpl. | NormalisedNorm. | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Angel Ayora
|
11/1 | 8.3% | 7.3% | 9th |
| 2 |
Mikael Lindberg
|
33/1 | 2.9% | 2.6% | 30th |
| 3 |
Ewen Ferguson
|
33/1 | 2.9% | 2.6% | 107th |
| 4 |
Casey Jarvis
|
33/1 | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1st |
| 5 |
Alex Fitzpatrick
|
33/1 | 2.9% | 2.6% | 27th |
| 6 |
Dan Bradbury
|
33/1 | 2.9% | 2.6% | 83rd |
| 7 |
Calum Hill
|
35/1 | 2.8% | 2.4% | 101st |
| 8 |
Jorge Campillo
|
40/1 | 2.4% | 2.1% | 26th |
| 9 |
Antoine Rozner
|
40/1 | 2.4% | 2.1% | 18th |
| 10 |
Ding Wenyi
|
40/1 | 2.4% | 2.1% | 23rd |
| 11 |
Jacob Skov Olesen
|
40/1 | 2.4% | 2.1% | 5th |
| 12 |
Nathan Kimsey
|
45/1 | 2.2% | 1.9% | 4th |
| 13 |
JC Ritchie
|
45/1 | 2.2% | 1.9% | 96th |
| 14 |
Jacques Kruyswijk
|
45/1 | 2.2% | 1.9% | 20th |
| 15 |
Niklas Norgaard Moller
|
45/1 | 2.2% | 1.9% | 98th |
| 16 |
Alejandro Del Rey
|
45/1 | 2.2% | 1.9% | 61st |
| 17 |
Francesco Laporta
|
50/1 | 2.0% | 1.7% | 3rd |
| 18 |
Frederic LaCroix
|
50/1 | 2.0% | 1.7% | 10th |
| 19 |
Todd Clements
|
55/1 | 1.8% | 1.6% | 112th |
| 20 |
Daniel Vancsik
|
60/1 | 1.6% | 1.4% | - |
Prices were recorded before the tournament started and are not live. Always check the current price with your bookmaker.
How the Magical Kenya Open presented by absa 2026 finished
Casey Jarvis won the Magical Kenya Open presented by absa, having started the week at 33/1 - an implied 2.9% chance. The favourite, Angel Ayora, finished 9th.
| Pos | Player | Starting odds | Implied chanceImpl. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Casey Jarvis
|
33/1 | 2.9% |
| 2 |
Hennie Du Plessis
|
- | - |
| 3 |
Francesco Laporta
|
50/1 | 2.0% |
| 4 |
Nathan Kimsey
|
45/1 | 2.2% |
| 5 |
Jacob Skov Olesen
|
40/1 | 2.4% |
| 6 |
Matthew Jordan
|
66/1 | 1.5% |
| 7 |
Ben Schmidt
|
80/1 | 1.2% |
| 8 |
Davis Bryant
|
250/1 | 0.4% |
| 9 |
Angel Ayora
|
11/1 | 8.3% |
| 10 |
Frederic LaCroix
|
50/1 | 2.0% |
Our model's numbers for the Magical Kenya Open presented by absa
The top of the market, with our model's win probability (Predicted) and how far it disagrees with the bookmakers (Discrepancy). The first three rows are shown in full so you can see exactly what the model produces. Odds and implied probabilities are public - the two green columns are ours.
Bookmaker margins and each-way terms
What each bookmaker is charging on this market, and the each-way terms they are offering. True overround values the extra places properly, so it is the number to compare - the lower it is, the more the bookmaker is giving back. How we calculate it.
| # | Bookie | Terms | Overround | True Overround |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Skybet | 1 @ 1/1 | 14.3% | 14.3% |
| 2 | Paddy Power | 1 @ 1/1 | 14.3% | 14.3% |
| 3 | Ladbrokes | 7 @ 1/5 | 45.5% | 19.9% |
| 4 | Coral | 7 @ 1/5 | 45.5% | 19.9% |
| 5 | Bet365 | 5 @ 1/4 | 37.9% | 21.6% |
| 6 | Boyle Sports | 6 @ 1/5 | 35.6% | 21.8% |
| 7 | Spreadex | 6 @ 1/5 | 36% | 22.2% |
| 8 | Sporting Index | 6 @ 1/5 | 36% | 22.2% |
| 9 | BetMGM UK | 6 @ 1/5 | 41.3% | 26.9% |
| 10 | Virgin Bet | 6 @ 1/5 | 41.3% | 26.9% |
| 11 | William Hill | 5 @ 1/4 | 46.4% | 29.1% |
| 12 | 888Sport | 5 @ 1/4 | 46.8% | 29.4% |
| 13 | QuinnBet | 6 @ 1/5 | 44.9% | 30.2% |
| 14 | Betway | 6 @ 1/5 | 48.4% | 33.3% |
| 15 | Star Sports | 1 @ 1/1 | 37.6% | 37.6% |
| 16 | AK Bets | 1 @ 1/1 | 37.6% | 37.6% |
| 17 | PricedUp | 1 @ 1/1 | 37.6% | 37.6% |
| 18 | BresBet | 1 @ 1/1 | 37.6% | 37.6% |
| 19 | Unibet | 1 @ 1/1 | 40.7% | 40.7% |
Magical Kenya Open presented by absa 2026 betting FAQ
Who was favourite for the Magical Kenya Open presented by absa 2026?
Angel Ayora was the outright favourite at 11/1, which is an implied chance of 8.3% before the bookmakers' margin is removed and 7.3% after. Mikael Lindberg was next in the market at 33/1.
Who won the Magical Kenya Open presented by absa 2026?
Casey Jarvis won the Magical Kenya Open presented by absa 2026, starting the week at 33/1.
When was the Magical Kenya Open presented by absa 2026 played?
The Magical Kenya Open presented by absa started on Thursday 19 February 2026 and finished on Sunday 22 February 2026. It is a DP World Tour event.
How big was the Magical Kenya Open presented by absa field?
149 players were in the field, 137 of them priced by the bookmakers. 101 of those were 100/1 or bigger, which is where most each-way value is found.
What margin do the bookmakers take on the Magical Kenya Open presented by absa?
Taking the best price available on every player cuts the overround to 11.2%, against 14.3% at Skybet, the cheapest single bookmaker on this market. Shopping the whole market is worth more than most tips are.
Where can I get Magical Kenya Open presented by absa betting tips?
GolfForecast publishes its Magical Kenya Open presented by absa picks each Tuesday morning, with the stake for each bet and the bookmaker offering the best each-way terms. The 30-day trial is free.
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