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Every tip published since 2020, settled and shown in full on the track record page.
The bookmakers made Lee Westwood favourite for the D+D Real Czech Masters at 14/1. That is an implied 6.7% before the margin comes out, and 5.0% once the book is normalised back to 100%. On that number no player is anywhere near a standout, and the market is wide open, with Bernd Wiesberger next in at 14/1.
The five shortest players in the market share 23.8% of the win chance between them, which leaves 76.2% spread across the other 143 priced players. That is an unusually flat market. When no small group of players dominates, a model that prices the whole field has more room to disagree with the bookmakers. 113 players are priced at 100/1 or bigger.
Take the best price available on every player and the overround on this market is 33.8%, or 14.2% once the each-way terms are valued properly. The cheapest single bookmaker on this event is Betfred at 29% (7 @ 1/5), so taking the best price player by player is worth -4.8 points of margin before a single selection is made. We explain how the number is built in what are the bookies' margins on golf, and which books are worth having an account with in which bookie is best for golf.
Our model prices every player in the field from world ranking points, recent form and the strength of the field, then compares that price against the market. Where our number is higher than the bookmakers', there is an edge - that is the Discrepancy column in the table below. Picks are the players with the biggest edge once the each-way terms on offer are taken into account, which is why a 150/1 shot at 1/5 odds and 8 places can be a better bet than the same player at 150/1 and 5 places elsewhere.
Best available outright prices across the bookmakers we track, with the implied chance each price carries. Normalised probability removes the bookmakers' margin so the column sums to 100%.
| # | Player | Odds | ImpliedImpl. | NormalisedNorm. | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Lee Westwood
|
14/1 | 6.7% | 5.0% | 114th |
| 2 |
Bernd Wiesberger
|
14/1 | 6.7% | 5.0% | 30th |
| 3 |
Eddie Pepperell
|
14/1 | 6.7% | 5.0% | 100th |
| 4 |
Erik van Rooyen
|
14/1 | 6.7% | 5.0% | 5th |
| 5 |
Thomas Pieters
|
18/1 | 5.3% | 3.9% | 1st |
| 6 |
Andrea Pavan
|
25/1 | 3.8% | 2.9% | 3rd |
| 7 |
Tom Lewis
|
25/1 | 3.8% | 2.9% | - |
| 8 |
Robert MacIntyre
|
25/1 | 3.8% | 2.9% | 23rd |
| 9 |
Gavin Green
|
30/1 | 3.2% | 2.4% | 58th |
| 10 |
Julian Suri
|
33/1 | 2.9% | 2.2% | 74th |
| 11 |
Adria Arnaus
|
45/1 | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2nd |
| 12 |
Victor Dubuisson
|
50/1 | 2.0% | 1.5% | 39th |
| 13 |
Lee Slattery
|
50/1 | 2.0% | 1.5% | 39th |
| 14 |
Matthias Schwab
|
50/1 | 2.0% | 1.5% | 5th |
| 15 |
Aaron Rai
|
50/1 | 2.0% | 1.5% | 39th |
| 16 |
Scott Jamieson
|
55/1 | 1.8% | 1.3% | 39th |
| 17 |
Padraig Harrington
|
55/1 | 1.8% | 1.3% | 58th |
| 18 |
Haydn Porteous
|
55/1 | 1.8% | 1.3% | 11th |
| 19 |
Alexander Bjork
|
55/1 | 1.8% | 1.3% | 23rd |
| 20 |
George Coetzee
|
60/1 | 1.6% | 1.2% | 128th |
Prices were recorded before the tournament started and are not live. Always check the current price with your bookmaker.
Thomas Pieters won the D+D Real Czech Masters, having started the week at 18/1 - an implied 5.3% chance. The favourite, Lee Westwood, finished 114th.
| Pos | Player | Starting odds | Implied chanceImpl. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Thomas Pieters
|
18/1 | 5.3% |
| 2 |
Adria Arnaus
|
45/1 | 2.2% |
| 3 |
Andrea Pavan
|
25/1 | 3.8% |
| 3 |
Sam Horsfield
|
110/1 | 0.9% |
| 5 |
Rikard Karlberg
|
100/1 | 1.0% |
| 5 |
Erik van Rooyen
|
14/1 | 6.7% |
| 5 |
Hugo Leon
|
200/1 | 0.5% |
| 5 |
Matthias Schwab
|
50/1 | 2.0% |
| 5 |
Liam Johnston
|
500/1 | 0.2% |
| 10 |
Robert Karlsson
|
150/1 | 0.7% |
Every player we priced for the D+D Real Czech Masters, with the model's win probability and the edge against the market. The players at the top of the market are locked, and so are the bets we advised.
What each bookmaker is charging on this market, and the each-way terms they are offering. True overround values the extra places properly, so it is the number to compare - the lower it is, the more the bookmaker is giving back. How we calculate it.
| # | Bookie | Terms | Overround | True Overround |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Betfred | 7 @ 1/5 | 54% | 29% |
| 2 | Boyle Sports | 7 @ 1/5 | 54.2% | 29.1% |
| 3 | Skybet | 5 @ 1/4 | 46.7% | 30.8% |
| 4 | Coral | 7 @ 1/5 | 56.3% | 30.9% |
| 5 | Sportingbet | 5 @ 1/4 | 47.4% | 31.4% |
| 6 | Ladbrokes | 5 @ 1/4 | 47.7% | 31.7% |
| 7 | Betfair Sportsbook | 7 @ 1/5 | 61.3% | 35.1% |
| 8 | Bet365 | 5 @ 1/4 | 51.8% | 35.4% |
| 9 | Black Type | 5 @ 1/4 | 53% | 36.4% |
| 10 | Paddy Power | 7 @ 1/5 | 63.5% | 36.9% |
| 11 | Redzone | 5 @ 1/4 | 56.2% | 39.2% |
| 12 | SportPesa | 5 @ 1/4 | 56.2% | 39.2% |
| 13 | 10Bet | 5 @ 1/4 | 56.2% | 39.2% |
| 14 | Bethard | 5 @ 1/4 | 56.2% | 39.2% |
| 15 | MoPlay | 5 @ 1/4 | 56.2% | 39.2% |
| 16 | Betway | 5 @ 1/4 | 57.9% | 40.8% |
| 17 | 888Sport | 6 @ 1/5 | 55.5% | 41.8% |
| 18 | Unibet | 6 @ 1/5 | 55.7% | 41.9% |
| 19 | Marathon Bet | 5 @ 1/4 | 63.7% | 46% |
| 20 | Bet Victor | 6 @ 1/5 | 63.6% | 49.1% |
| 21 | William Hill | 6 @ 1/5 | 65% | 50.4% |
Lee Westwood was the outright favourite at 14/1, which is an implied chance of 6.7% before the bookmakers' margin is removed and 5.0% after. Bernd Wiesberger was next in the market at 14/1.
Thomas Pieters won the D+D Real Czech Masters 2019, starting the week at 18/1.
The D+D Real Czech Masters started on Thursday 15 August 2019 and finished on Sunday 18 August 2019. It is a DP World Tour event.
155 players were in the field, 148 of them priced by the bookmakers. 113 of those were 100/1 or bigger, which is where most each-way value is found.
Taking the best price available on every player cuts the overround to 33.8%, against 29% at Betfred, the cheapest single bookmaker on this market. Shopping the whole market is worth more than most tips are.
GolfForecast publishes its D+D Real Czech Masters picks each Tuesday morning, with the stake for each bet and the bookmaker offering the best each-way terms. A 30-day trial costs £1.
Every Tuesday we publish the shortlist for that week's event, the stake for each bet, and the bookmaker with the best each-way terms. £1 covers your first 30 days.
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