Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 12.0 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 3.2 %

Total Probability Staked: 27.3 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.2

Total Won: 35.9

Total Profit: -64.3



# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 AUT Bernd Wiesberger 18 (Ladbrokes: 8 @ 1/5) 5.26% 4.35% 1.48% -2.87% T24
2 BEL Thomas Pieters 22 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.59% 2.8% -0.8% T10
3 POL Adrian Meronk 22 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.59% 2.41% -1.18% 3
4 NZL Ryan Fox 22 (Ladbrokes: 8 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.59% 2.23% -1.36% 2
5 DEN Rasmus Hojgaard 25 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 3.85% 3.18% 0.91% -2.27% T10
6 ENG Jordan L Smith 28 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 3.45% 2.85% 2.31% -0.54% T24
7 DEN Thorbjorn Olesen 33 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.94% 2.43% 1.21% -1.22% MC
8 RSA Oliver Bekker 35 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.3% 2.9% 0.6% MC 9.64
9 ESP Adrian Otaegui 35 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.3% 1.54% -0.75% 65
10 DEN Nicolai Hojgaard 40 (Ladbrokes: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 2.02% 1.7% -0.32% MC 8.46
11 RSA Hennie Du Plessis 40 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 2.02% 1.39% -0.62% T56
12 FRA Romain Langasque 45 (Ladbrokes: 8 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.8% 1.44% -0.35% T31
13 RSA Dean Burmester 45 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.8% 1.04% -0.76% MC
14 BEL Thomas Detry 45 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.17% 1.8% 0.7% -1.1% MC
15 ENG Richard Mansell 50 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.62% 0.58% -1.04% 9
16 FRA Victor Perez 50 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.62% 0.51% -1.11% 1
17 RSA George Coetzee 55 (Ladbrokes: 8 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.48% 0.57% -0.91% MC
18 FRA Julien Brun 60 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.36% 1.43% 0.07% MC 5.69
19 ITA Edoardo Molinari 60 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.36% 1.12% -0.23% T37 5.69
20 CHN Li Haotong 66 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.23% 1.72% 0.49% T37 5.18
21 ENG Callum Shinkwin 66 (Ladbrokes: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.23% 0.79% -0.44% T37
22 ENG Marcus Armitage 66 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.23% 0.65% -0.58% T31
23 USA Johannes Veerman 70 (Ladbrokes: 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.16% 0.6% -0.57% MC
24 SWE Alexander Bjork 70 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.41% 1.16% 0.59% -0.58% T7
25 DEN Joachim B Hansen 70 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.41% 1.16% 0.46% -0.71% MC
26 FIN Mikko Korhonen 73 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 1.35% 1.12% 1.07% -0.04% T14 2.35
27 ENG Matthew Jordan 75 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.32% 1.09% 1.67% 0.58% T51 4.57
28 RSA JC Ritchie 75 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 1.32% 1.09% 0.7% -0.39% T24
29 USA John Catlin 77 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 1.28% 1.06% 0.41% -0.65% MC
30 SCO Richie Ramsay 80 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 1.02% 1.57% 0.55% T43 4.29
31 USA Chase Hanna 80 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.02% 1.35% 0.33% MC 4.29
32 GER Yannik Paul 80 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 1.02% 0.95% -0.07% MC 4.29
33 RSA Thriston Lawrence 80 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 1.02% 0.95% -0.07% MC 4.29
34 ENG Matt Wallace 80 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.02% 0.31% -0.72% T5
35 NED Wil Besseling 92 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 1.08% 0.89% 0.57% -0.32% MC 1.87
36 ESP Rafael Cabrera Bello 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.82% 1.68% 0.86% MC 3.44
37 USA Sean Crocker 100 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.82% 0.38% -0.44%
38 THA Kiradech Aphibarnrat 100 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.82% 0.33% -0.49% MC
39 CHN Wu Ashun 107 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.93% 0.77% 1.24% 0.47% T47 1.61
40 SCO Connor Syme 107 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.93% 0.77% 1.13% 0.36% MC 1.61
41 THA Jazz Janewattananond 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.74% 0.82% 0.08% T31 3.13
42 JPN Masahiro Kawamura 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.74% 0.58% -0.16% T47 3.13
43 ENG Ross Fisher 110 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.74% 0.57% -0.17% T51 3.13
44 NED Joost Luiten 117 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.85% 0.7% 0.6% -0.1% T43 1.47
45 FRA Victor Dubuisson 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.66% 2.02% 1.36% 2.76
46 SWE Marcus Kinhult 125 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.66% 0.99% 0.33% MC 2.76
47 RSA Wilco Nienaber 125 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.66% 0.97% 0.32% MC 2.76
48 RSA Justin Walters 125 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.66% 0.87% 0.22% MC 2.76
49 SCO Ewen Ferguson 125 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.66% 0.86% 0.21% T37 2.76
50 SWE Sebastian Soderberg 125 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.66% 0.76% 0.1% T5 (tied w/2) 2.76 +35.9
51 GER Hurly Long 126 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.79% 0.65% 0.88% 0.23% T10 1.37
52 AUS Jason Scrivener 126 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.79% 0.65% 0.82% 0.17% MC 1.37
53 SCO Grant Forrest 126 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.79% 0.65% 0.65% 0% T43 1.37
54 ESP Jorge Campillo 126 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.79% 0.65% 0.57% -0.08% T21 1.37
55 SCO Scott Jamieson 136 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.73% 0.6% 1.34% 0.74% MC
56 AUT Lukas Nemecz 136 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.73% 0.6% 1.03% 0.43% MC
57 FRA Antoine Rozner 136 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.73% 0.6% 0.44% -0.17% T21
58 FRA Julien Guerrier 146 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.68% 0.56% 0.91% 0.34% MC
59 ENG Andy Sullivan 146 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.68% 0.56% 0.6% 0.03% MC
60 ENG David Horsey 150 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.55% 0.83% 0.28% MC
61 ITA Francesco Laporta 150 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.55% 0.76% 0.21% T56
62 DEN Niklas Norgaard Moller 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.55% 0.4% -0.15% T31
63 ARG Daniel Vancsik 156 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.64% 0.53% 0.2% -0.33%
64 ESP Nacho Elvira 175 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.57% 0.47% 0.92% 0.45% MC
65 IND Shubhankar Sharma 175 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.47% 0.64% 0.17% T14
66 FIN Kalle Samooja 175 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.57% 0.47% 0.49% 0.02% MC
67 SCO David Law 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.47% 0.45% -0.02% T37
68 FRA Michael Lorenzo-Vera 175 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.47% 0.45% -0.02% MC
69 DEN Jeff Winther 175 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.57% 0.47% 0.39% -0.08% T47
70 ENG Eddie Pepperell 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.47% 0.26% -0.21% T14
71 ESP Santiago Tarrio 185 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.54% 0.44% 0.2% -0.24%
72 SWE Kristoffer Broberg 195 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.51% 0.42% 0.43% 0% T14
73 RSA Brandon Stone 200 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.41% 0.55% 0.14% MC
74 ITA Guido Migliozzi 200 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.41% 0.37% -0.04% T10
75 ENG Paul Waring 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.41% 0.29% -0.12% MC
76 GER Maximilian Kieffer 200 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.41% 0.2% -0.21% T14
77 SCO Craig Howie 205 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.49% 0.4% 0.54% 0.14% MC
78 ENG Daniel Gavins 215 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.46% 0.38% 0.95% 0.56% MC
79 GER Marcel Schneider 244 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.41% 0.34% 0.8% 0.46% 4
80 MAS Gavin Green 244 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.41% 0.34% 0.65% 0.31% MC
81 FIN Sami Valimaki 244 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.41% 0.34% 0.62% 0.29% MC
82 ESP Alfredo Garcia-Heredia 250 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.33% 0.57% 0.24% T24
83 ENG James Morrison 250 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.33% 0.5% 0.17% MC
84 NOR Espen Kofstad 250 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.33% 0.49% 0.16% MC
85 ENG Oliver Wilson 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.33% 0.34% 0.01% 64
86 ESP Alejandro Canizares 250 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.33% 0.32% -0.01% MC
87 DEN Lucas Bjerregaard 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.33% 0.31% -0.02% MC
88 ENG Jack Senior 273 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.36% 0.3% 0.69% 0.39% T31
89 ITA Nino Bertasio 273 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.36% 0.3% 0.42% 0.12% MC
90 GER Marcel Siem 283 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.35% 0.29% 0.5% 0.21% MC
91 ENG Dale Whitnell 300 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.27% 1.05% 0.77% T14
92 ESP Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez 300 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.27% 0.93% 0.65% MC
93 ENG Robert Rock 300 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.27% 0.67% 0.4% MC
94 GER Nicolai Von Dellingshausen 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.27% 0.58% 0.31% MC
95 ENG Chris Wood 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.27% 0.4% 0.12% MC
96 GER Sebastian Heisele 300 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.27% 0.29% 0.02% 62
97 RSA Zander Lombard 300 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.27% 0.26% -0.02% MC
98 ESP Angel Hidalgo Portillo 313 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.32% 0.26% 0.37% 0.1% MC
99 FRA Frederic LaCroix 313 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.32% 0.26% 0.27% 0% T24
100 RSA Darren Fichardt 350 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.24% 0.4% 0.16% T37
101 NED Darius Van Driel 350 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.24% 0.34% 0.1% MC
102 SWE Joakim Lagergren 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.24% 0.3% 0.06% MC
103 FRA Benjamin Hebert 381 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.26% 0.22% 0.27% 0.05% MC
104 AUS Maverick Antcliff 400 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.21% 0.51% 0.3% MC
105 POR Ricardo Santos 400 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.21% 0.48% 0.28% MC
106 ENG Matthew Southgate 411 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.24% 0.2% 0.39% 0.19% MC
107 WAL Oliver Farr 420 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.24% 0.2% 0.36% 0.17% T51
108 POR Ricardo Gouveia 430 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.23% 0.19% 0.26% 0.07% T7
109 ITA Renato Paratore 489 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.2% 0.17% 0.29% 0.12% MC
110 CHI Hugo Leon 489 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.2% 0.17% 0.29% 0.12% MC
111 ENG Ashley Chesters 489 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.2% 0.17% 0.29% 0.12% T21
112 ENG Jack Singh Brar 500 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.17% 0.72% 0.56% MC
113 ITA Lorenzo Gagli 500 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.17% 0.31% 0.14% T24
114 NED Lars Van Meijel 600 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.14% 0.56% 0.42% T56
115 ENG Richard McEvoy 600 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.14% 0.42% 0.29% MC
116 AUS Scott Hend 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.14% 0.33% 0.19% T14
117 USA Julian Suri 600 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.14% 0.21% 0.07% MC
118 NED Rowin Caron 600 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.14% 0.2% 0.06%
119 ENG Andrew Wilson 636 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.16% 0.13% 0.38% 0.25% MC
120 SCO David Drysdale 636 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.16% 0.13% 0.25% 0.12% MC
121 ENG Steven Brown 685 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.15% 0.12% 0.31% 0.19% MC
122 ESP Alvaro Quiros 734 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.14% 0.11% 0.2% 0.08% 63
123 ITA Andrea Pavan 800 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.12% 0.1% 0.52% 0.42% T51
124 FRA Robin Roussel 800 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.12% 0.1% 0.48% 0.37% MC
125 ENG Ross McGowan 800 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.12% 0.1% 0.41% 0.31% T56
126 SWE Rikard Karlberg 800 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.12% 0.1% 0.33% 0.23% MC
127 FRA Raphael Jacquelin 800 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.12% 0.1% 0.25% 0.15% T43
128 SCO Stephen Gallacher 800 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.12% 0.1% 0.24% 0.14% T24
129 NED Daan Huizing 800 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.12% 0.1% 0.23% 0.13% MC
130 NED Koen Kouwenaar 800 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.12% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% MC
131 IND Gaganjeet Bhullar 979 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.1% 0.08% 0.2% 0.12% MC
132 NED Kiet Van Der Weele 979 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.1% 0.08% 0.2% 0.12% MC
133 SCO Marc Warren 1000 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% 0.39% 0.31% MC
134 ESP Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 1000 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% 0.33% 0.24% T56
135 NIR Jonathan Caldwell 1000 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% 0.32% 0.24% MC
136 AUS Zach Murray 1000 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% 0.27% 0.18% MC
137 FRA Joel Stalter 1000 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% 0.23% 0.14% T56
138 UKR Lev Grinberg 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% 0.21% 0.12% MC
139 FRA Romain Wattel 1000 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% 0.2% 0.12% MC
140 DEN Thomas Bjorn 1500 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.06% 0.4% 0.34% T51
141 ENG Oliver Fisher 1500 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.06% 0.32% 0.27% WD
142 NIR Cormac Sharvin 1500 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.06% 0.32% 0.27% MC
143 RSA Haydn Porteous 2500 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% 0.31% 0.27% MC
144 IND S.S.P. Chawrasia 2500 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% 0.27% 0.23% MC
145 ENG David Howell 2500 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% 0.23% 0.19% WD
146 ENG Graeme Storm 2500 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% 0.23% 0.19% MC
147 NED Robbie Van West 2500 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% 0.2% 0.17% MC
148 ESP Javier Ballesteros 2500 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% 0.2% 0.17% MC
149 NED Dario Antonisse 2500 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% 0.2% 0.17% MC
150 CHN Zhang Huilin 5000 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.02% 0.02% 0.27% 0.26% MC
151 RSA Danie van Tonder 0% 0% 0% 0% T47
152 USA Sihwan Kim 0% 0% 0% 0% T31
153 ENG David Coupland 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
154 ESP Pablo Martin Benavides 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
155 ESP Pep Angles Ros 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
156 NED Rowin Caron 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
157 GER Matthias Schmid 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
158 NED Mats Markovits 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
159 NED Jerry Ji 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
160 NED Jack Ingham 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
161 NED Thijmen Batens 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 12.0 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 3.2 %

Key


Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 26.5% 11.5%
2 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 28.8% 13.6%
3 Betfair Exchange 1 @ 1/1 17.1% 17.1%
4 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 34% 18.1%
5 Boyle Sports 8 @ 1/5 65.6% 26.1%
6 Ladbrokes 8 @ 1/5 66.2% 26.5%
7 Coral 8 @ 1/5 66.2% 26.5%
8 Betway 7 @ 1/5 59.4% 31.3%
9 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 47.2% 32.3%
10 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 49% 33.8%
11 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 51.1% 35.8%
12 Betfred 6 @ 1/5 51.5% 36.1%
13 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 51.5% 36.1%
14 Sporting Index 5 @ 1/4 54.6% 36.3%
15 QuinnBet 6 @ 1/5 51.8% 36.4%
16 Skybet 6 @ 1/5 52.7% 37.2%
17 Betfair Sportsbook 7 @ 1/5 68.9% 39.2%
18 Paddy Power 7 @ 1/5 68.9% 39.2%
19 VBet 6 @ 1/5 64.1% 47.4%