Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: -22.3 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 2.4 %

Total Probability Staked: 29.0 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 49.0

Total Profit: -51.1

Dubai Championship

11/11/2021 - 14/11/2021

Up to date as of: 6 months ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 ENG Paul Casey 11 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 8.33% 7.18% 3.95% -3.23% T31
2 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 11 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 8.33% 7.18% 2.63% -4.55% T13
3 AUT Bernd Wiesberger 16 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 5.88% 5.07% 2.11% -2.95% T2
4 AUS Minwoo Lee 22 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.75% 2.67% -1.07% T4
5 ENG Matt Wallace 22 (Bet Victor: 6 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.75% 1.96% -1.78% MC
6 BEL Thomas Detry 28 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.97% 2.71% -0.26% MC 12.93
7 RSA Dean Burmester 28 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.97% 1.25% -1.73% T44
8 ENG Sam Horsfield 35 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.39% 1.61% -0.78% T44
9 FRA Victor Perez 40 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 2.44% 2.1% 0.86% -1.24% T24
10 FRA Antoine Rozner 40 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 2.44% 2.1% 0.55% -1.55% T4
11 ESP Rafael Cabrera Bello 47 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 2.08% 1.79% 1.31% -0.48% MC
12 USA Johannes Veerman 50 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.69% 1.93% 0.24% MC 7.36
13 DEN Joachim B Hansen 50 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.69% 1.22% -0.47% 1
14 SCO Robert MacIntyre 50 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.69% 1.12% -0.57% T24
15 USA Sean Crocker 55 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.54% 2.38% 0.84% T8 6.7
16 ITA Guido Migliozzi 55 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.54% 1.51% -0.03% T44 6.7
17 SCO Grant Forrest 55 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.54% 1.32% -0.22% T51 6.7
18 ENG Tom Lewis 55 (Betfred: 6 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.54% 0.53% -1.01% MC
19 ENG Jordan L Smith 66 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 1.49% 1.29% 1.65% 0.36% T24 2.8
20 ITA Francesco Laporta 66 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.29% 1.39% 0.1% T2 (tied w/2) 5.6 +49
21 ENG Matthew Jordan 66 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.29% 1.36% 0.07% T31 5.6
22 POL Adrian Meronk 66 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.29% 0.77% -0.52% T8
23 FRA Romain Langasque 66 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.29% 0.53% -0.76% T31
24 GER Martin Kaymer 66 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.29% 0.52% -0.76% T13
25 USA John Catlin 70 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 1.41% 1.21% 1.3% 0.09% T31 2.64
26 JPN Masahiro Kawamura 70 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 1.41% 1.21% 1.19% -0.02% T59 2.64
27 ENG Callum Shinkwin 70 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.41% 1.21% 0.94% -0.27% T31
28 DEN Lucas Bjerregaard 70 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 1.41% 1.21% 0.88% -0.33% MC
29 ENG Andy Sullivan 75 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 1.32% 1.13% 0.56% -0.58% T4
30 FIN Mikko Korhonen 80 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.06% 1.32% 0.25% T24 4.63
31 PAR Fabrizio Zanotti 80 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.06% 1.3% 0.23% T31 4.63
32 DEN Thorbjorn Olesen 80 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 1.06% 0.35% -0.71% T8
33 SWE Alexander Bjork 94 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 1.05% 0.91% 1.3% 0.4% T19 1.98
34 RSA Justin Harding 94 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 1.05% 0.91% 1.05% 0.14% T55 1.98
35 SWE Joakim Lagergren 94 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 1.05% 0.91% 0.99% 0.08% T64 1.98
36 ENG Marcus Armitage 100 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.85% 1.08% 0.22% T19 3.72
37 FRA Matthieu Pavon 104 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.95% 0.82% 1.29% 0.47% T19 1.79
38 FIN Tapio Pulkkanen 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.78% 1.24% 0.47% T44 3.38
39 ENG David Horsey 123 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.81% 0.69% 1.61% 0.92% MC 1.52
40 ITA Renato Paratore 123 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.81% 0.69% 1.09% 0.4% MC 1.52
41 ENG Jack Senior 123 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.81% 0.69% 1.08% 0.38% T44 1.52
42 IND Shubhankar Sharma 123 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.81% 0.69% 0.96% 0.27% MC 1.52
43 ESP Adrian Otaegui 123 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.81% 0.69% 0.89% 0.2% MC 1.52
44 SWE Kristoffer Broberg 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.68% 0.97% 0.29% T51 2.98
45 FRA Michael Lorenzo-Vera 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.68% 0.53% -0.15% T44 2.98
46 FRA Alexander Levy 132 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.75% 0.65% 0.81% 0.16% MC 1.41
47 ITA Nino Bertasio 132 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.75% 0.65% 0.8% 0.16% MC 1.41
48 ITA Edoardo Molinari 142 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.7% 0.6% 1.22% 0.62% T17
49 DEN Jeff Winther 142 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.7% 0.6% 0.9% 0.3% 69
50 SWE Sebastian Soderberg 142 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.7% 0.6% 0.83% 0.23% T31
51 NED Joost Luiten 151 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.66% 0.57% 0.97% 0.41% MC
52 ESP Jorge Campillo 151 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.66% 0.57% 0.96% 0.4% 63
53 THA Jazz Janewattananond 151 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.66% 0.57% 0.72% 0.15% T4
54 SWE Niklas Lemke 151 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.66% 0.57% 0.51% -0.05% T51
55 AUS Jason Scrivener 161 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.62% 0.53% 0.77% 0.24% T31
56 FIN Kalle Samooja 170 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.58% 0.5% 0.49% -0.01% T8
57 FRA Julien Guerrier 170 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.58% 0.5% 0.48% -0.03% T31
58 ENG James Morrison 180 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.55% 0.48% 0.9% 0.42% T64
59 SCO Richie Ramsay 180 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.55% 0.48% 0.8% 0.33% MC
60 ENG Eddie Pepperell 180 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.55% 0.48% 0.73% 0.25% MC
61 ENG Ross Fisher 189 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.53% 0.45% 0.41% -0.05% MC
62 ESP Alejandro Canizares 199 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.5% 0.43% 0.89% 0.46% T19
63 RSA Justin Walters 199 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.5% 0.43% 0.75% 0.32% MC
64 SCO Connor Syme 208 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.48% 0.41% 0.63% 0.22% MC
65 ENG Daniel Gavins 218 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.46% 0.39% 1.25% 0.85% T44
66 IRL Padraig Harrington 218 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.46% 0.39% 0.92% 0.52% T8
67 ESP Alvaro Quiros 218 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.46% 0.39% 0.7% 0.31% T55
68 ENG Oliver Wilson 225 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.44% 0.38% 0.71% 0.33% MC
69 BEL Nicolas Colsaerts 227 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.44% 0.38% 0.63% 0.25% T31
70 SCO Scott Jamieson 227 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.44% 0.38% 0.55% 0.17% T13
71 ENG Steven Brown 237 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.42% 0.36% 0.22% -0.14% MC
72 SCO David Law 256 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.39% 0.34% 0.87% 0.54% T61
73 SCO Stephen Gallacher 265 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.38% 0.32% 0.42% 0.09% T61
74 ENG Dale Whitnell 275 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.36% 0.31% 0.97% 0.65% MC
75 FRA Benjamin Hebert 275 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.36% 0.31% 0.68% 0.37% MC
76 FIN Sami Valimaki 275 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.36% 0.31% 0.54% 0.23% T64
77 RSA Darren Fichardt 284 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.35% 0.3% 0.41% 0.11% T59
78 ENG Paul Waring 294 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.34% 0.29% 0.75% 0.46% T13
79 ESP Nacho Elvira 294 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.34% 0.29% 0.59% 0.3% T55
80 ESP Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez 294 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.34% 0.29% 0.56% 0.27% MC
81 GER Maximilian Kieffer 294 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.34% 0.29% 0.46% 0.17% T17
82 ENG Garrick Porteous 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.29% 0.46% 0.17% MC
83 ENG Ashley Chesters 322 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.31% 0.27% 0.89% 0.63% T31
84 MAS Gavin Green 322 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.31% 0.27% 0.56% 0.3% MC
85 CAN Aaron Cockerill 341 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.29% 0.25% 0.76% 0.5% MC
86 SCO Marc Warren 389 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.26% 0.22% 0.76% 0.54% MC
87 NED Lars Van Meijel 400 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.21% 0.48% 0.27% MC
88 FRA Robin Sciot-Siegrist 400 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.21% 0.36% 0.14% MC
89 SWE Rikard Karlberg 408 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.24% 0.21% 0.48% 0.27% MC
90 NIR Jonathan Caldwell 417 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.24% 0.21% 0.42% 0.21% T55
91 RSA Zander Lombard 427 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.23% 0.2% 0.31% 0.11% T24
92 SWE Marcus Kinhult 455 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.22% 0.19% 0.25% 0.06% T24
93 WAL Oliver Farr 493 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.2% 0.17% 0.59% 0.41% T51
94 ENG Chris Wood 493 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.2% 0.17% 0.26% 0.08% T24
95 ENG Ross McGowan 500 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.17% 1.36% 1.18% MC
96 AUS Scott Hend 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.17% 0.69% 0.52% MC
97 DEN Benjamin Henry Poke 500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.17% 0.39% 0.22% MC
98 SCO David Drysdale 541 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.18% 0.16% 0.38% 0.22% MC
99 USA Julian Suri 560 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.18% 0.15% 0.25% 0.1% MC
100 POR Ricardo Santos 588 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.17% 0.15% 0.8% 0.66% MC
101 ENG Chris Paisley 674 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.15% 0.13% 0.32% 0.19% MC
102 FRA Robin Roussel 807 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.12% 0.11% 0.57% 0.46% T31
103 ENG David Coupland 949 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.11% 0.09% 0.55% 0.46% T31
104 FRA Joel Stalter 949 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.11% 0.09% 0.45% 0.36% 68
105 ENG Oliver Fisher 949 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.11% 0.09% 0.32% 0.23% MC
106 ENG Richard McEvoy 949 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.11% 0.09% 0.25% 0.16% MC
107 DEN Thomas Bjorn 1000 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.37% 0.29% MC
108 ENG David Howell 1000 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.32% 0.23% MC
109 POR Pedro Figueiredo 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.09% 0.31% 0.22% MC
110 RSA Haydn Porteous 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.09% 0.3% 0.22% T64
111 UAE Ahmed Skaik 2500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.04% 0.03% 0.2% 0.17% MC
112 RSA Danie van Tonder 0% 0% 0% 0% T19
113 ESP Carlos Pigem 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
114 FRA Clement Sordet 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: -22.3 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 2.4 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Betfair Exchange 1 @ 1/1 16.3% 16.3%
2 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 41.3% 24.3%
3 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 41.3% 24.3%
4 Mansion Bet 5 @ 1/4 41.3% 24.3%
5 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 39.3% 24.6%
6 Betfair Sportsbook 7 @ 1/5 53.5% 26.1%
7 Paddy Power 7 @ 1/5 53.5% 26.1%
8 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 44.2% 26.8%
9 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 41.9% 27%
10 Boyle Sports 8 @ 1/5 68.6% 27.9%
11 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 43.2% 28.2%
12 Parimatch 6 @ 1/5 43.2% 28.2%
13 Betfred 6 @ 1/5 47% 31.5%
14 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 48.2% 32.6%
15 Skybet 6 @ 1/5 48.8% 33.2%
16 Betway 6 @ 1/5 49.7% 34%
17 Sporting Index 5 @ 1/4 54.6% 36%
18 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 52.2% 36.3%