Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 9.3 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 4.6 %

Total Probability Staked: 25.8 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.2

Total Won: 27.9

Total Profit: -72.3



# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 RSA Dean Burmester 21 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 4.55% 3.89% 2.06% -1.83% T40
2 ENG Jordan L Smith 22 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 4.35% 3.72% 2.12% -1.6% MC
3 ESP Adria Arnaus 23 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 4.17% 3.57% 1.77% -1.8% MC
4 RSA George Coetzee 23 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 4.17% 3.57% 0.86% -2.71% T35
5 FRA Romain Langasque 28 (Ladbrokes: 7 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.95% 0.9% -2.05% T21
6 RSA Oliver Bekker 33 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.94% 2.52% 1.82% -0.7% MC
7 FRA Matthieu Pavon 40 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 2.44% 2.09% 2.28% 0.19% T27 9.17
8 RSA Wilco Nienaber 40 (Ladbrokes: 7 @ 1/5) 2.44% 2.09% 1.49% -0.6% T12
9 ENG Callum Shinkwin 40 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 2.44% 2.09% 0.69% -1.4% T67
10 POL Adrian Meronk 41 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 2.38% 2.04% 1.34% -0.7% T3
11 RSA Justin Harding 41 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 2.38% 2.04% 0.87% -1.17% T5
12 KOR Joohyung Kim 45 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 2.17% 1.86% 1.33% -0.54% MC
13 ESP Pablo Larrazabal 45 (10Bet: 1 @ 1/1) 2.17% 1.86% 0.62% -1.24% T5
14 FRA Antoine Rozner 50 (Ladbrokes: 7 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.68% 0.95% -0.73% T73
15 ENG Laurie Canter 50 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.68% 0.69% -0.99% T12
16 ENG Marcus Armitage 51 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 1.92% 1.65% 1.46% -0.18% T5 3.62
17 FRA Julien Brun 55 (Betfred: 6 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.53% 1.46% -0.07% T35 6.72
18 ESP Jorge Campillo 55 (Ladbrokes: 7 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.53% 1.02% -0.51% T65
19 DEN Thorbjorn Olesen 60 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.4% 1.11% -0.29% T12
20 SWE Marcus Kinhult 60 (Betfred: 6 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.4% 0.87% -0.54% T3
21 RSA Hennie Du Plessis 66 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.28% 1.9% 0.63% T27 5.61
22 GER Hurly Long 66 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.28% 1.77% 0.5% MC 5.61
23 RSA Thriston Lawrence 66 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.28% 1.34% 0.06% T21 5.61
24 RSA Brandon Stone 66 (Ladbrokes: 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.28% 0.5% -0.77% T40
25 ESP Adrian Otaegui 75 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 1.32% 1.13% 0.91% -0.22% T5
26 ENG Ross Fisher 75 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 1.32% 1.13% 0.62% -0.51% T49
27 AUS Jason Scrivener 75 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.32% 1.13% 0.43% -0.7% T27
28 ENG Daniel Gavins 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 1.06% 1.02% -0.03% T62 4.64
29 FIN Mikko Korhonen 80 (10Bet: 1 @ 1/1) 1.23% 1.06% 0.62% -0.44% T67
30 USA John Catlin 85 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 1.16% 1% 0.61% -0.38% MC
31 SCO Calum Hill 85 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 1.16% 1% 0.57% -0.42% WD
32 CHN Wu Ashun 89 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 1.11% 0.95% 1.94% 0.98% T49 2.09
33 JPN Masahiro Kawamura 89 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 1.11% 0.95% 0.68% -0.27% MC
34 FRA Julien Guerrier 90 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.94% 1.53% 0.59% T62 4.13
35 ENG Matthew Jordan 90 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.94% 0.92% -0.02% T5 (tied w/7) 4.13 +11.2
36 THA Jazz Janewattananond 94 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 1.05% 0.9% 0.7% -0.2% MC 1.98
37 DEN Jeff Winther 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.85% 1.77% 0.92% 3.73
38 SWE Sebastian Soderberg 100 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.85% 1.09% 0.24% MC 3.73
39 SCO Grant Forrest 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.85% 0.96% 0.11% T49 3.73
40 SWE Joakim Lagergren 100 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.85% 0.77% -0.07% 72 3.73
41 RSA Jacques Kruyswijk 100 (Betfred: 6 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.85% 0.7% -0.15% T27 3.73
42 RSA Louis de Jager 100 (Ladbrokes: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.85% 0.69% -0.15% T27 3.73
43 SWE Niklas Lemke 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.85% 0.65% -0.2% MC 3.73
44 ESP Nacho Elvira 104 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.95% 0.82% 0.6% -0.21% T40
45 ENG Eddie Pepperell 110 (Ladbrokes: 7 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.77% 0.44% -0.33% MC
46 FIN Tapio Pulkkanen 123 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.81% 0.69% 1.15% 0.46% T49 1.52
47 NED Wil Besseling 123 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.81% 0.69% 0.45% -0.24% T21
48 USA Sihwan Kim 123 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.81% 0.69% 0.2% -0.49% T49
49 ENG Oliver Wilson 125 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.68% 0.81% 0.13% T12 2.99
50 AUS Wade Ormsby 125 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.68% 0.73% 0.05% T12 2.99
51 FIN Kalle Samooja 125 (Ladbrokes: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.68% 0.71% 0.03% T5 (tied w/7) 2.99 +16.7
52 ITA Edoardo Molinari 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.68% 0.67% -0.01% T40 2.99
53 FIN Sami Valimaki 125 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.68% 0.49% -0.19% T40 2.99
54 NZL Daniel Hillier 125 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.68% 0.22% -0.46%
55 ENG David Horsey 132 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.75% 0.64% 1.01% 0.37% MC 1.42
56 USA Sean Crocker 132 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.75% 0.64% 0.83% 0.19% MC 1.42
57 ENG Andy Sullivan 132 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.75% 0.64% 0.82% 0.18% MC 1.42
58 DEN Niklas Norgaard Moller 140 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.71% 0.61% 0.43% -0.17% T49
59 IND Shubhankar Sharma 142 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.7% 0.6% 2.93% 2.33% T49
60 AUT Lukas Nemecz 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.57% 1.3% 0.73% T27
61 ITA Nino Bertasio 150 (Ladbrokes: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.57% 0.59% 0.03% T21
62 GER Yannik Paul 150 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.57% 0.52% -0.05% T69
63 ZIM Scott Vincent 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.57% 0.27% -0.3%
64 RSA Zander Lombard 151 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.66% 0.56% 0.68% 0.11% T35
65 ITA Guido Migliozzi 151 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.66% 0.56% 0.52% -0.04% MC
66 SWE Kristoffer Broberg 160 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.62% 0.53% 0.82% 0.29% WD
67 ENG Garrick Porteous 160 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.62% 0.53% 0.65% 0.12% MC
68 AUS Zach Murray 160 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.62% 0.53% 0.22% -0.31%
69 ENG Jack Senior 161 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.62% 0.53% 0.86% 0.34% 75
70 DEN Marcus Helligkilde 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.49% 0.45% -0.03% T12
71 IRL Niall Kearney 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.49% 0.26% -0.23% T49
72 SCO Craig Howie 189 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.53% 0.45% 0.53% 0.08% T12
73 ESP Angel Hidalgo Portillo 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.43% 0.73% 0.31% MC
74 ITA Renato Paratore 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.43% 0.72% 0.29% MC
75 SCO Ewen Ferguson 200 (10Bet: 1 @ 1/1) 0.5% 0.43% 0.71% 0.28% 1
76 ESP Alfredo Garcia-Heredia 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.43% 0.62% 0.2% MC
77 ENG Matthew Southgate 200 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.43% 0.52% 0.09% MC
78 GER Maximilian Kieffer 200 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.43% 0.42% 0% T40
79 RSA Justin Walters 225 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.44% 0.38% 0.64% 0.26% T12
80 CHI Hugo Leon 225 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.44% 0.38% 0.26% -0.12% MC
81 ENG Paul Waring 237 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.42% 0.36% 0.59% 0.23% T12
82 FRA Frederic LaCroix 237 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.42% 0.36% 0.48% 0.12% MC
83 NOR Espen Kofstad 246 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.4% 0.35% 0.48% 0.13% MC
84 ESP Santiago Tarrio 246 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.4% 0.35% 0.22% -0.13%
85 DEN Lucas Bjerregaard 275 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.36% 0.31% 0.84% 0.53% T73
86 ESP Alejandro Canizares 275 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.36% 0.31% 0.72% 0.41% MC
87 ENG Dale Whitnell 275 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.36% 0.31% 0.4% 0.09% MC
88 GER Max Schmitt 284 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.35% 0.3% 0.62% 0.32% MC
89 CAN Aaron Cockerill 294 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.34% 0.29% 0.92% 0.63% T21
90 ENG Robert Rock 300 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.28% 1.12% 0.84% T27
91 CZE Ondrej Lieser 300 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.28% 0.26% -0.03% T69
92 DEN Soren Kjeldsen 350 (10Bet: 1 @ 1/1) 0.28% 0.24% 0.48% 0.23% T65
93 USA Chase Hanna 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.24% 0.39% 0.15% 2
94 ESP Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.24% 0.21% -0.03% MC
95 RSA Darren Fichardt 360 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.28% 0.24% 0.42% 0.19% T49
96 ENG Steven Brown 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.21% 0.8% 0.59% MC
97 ITA Andrea Pavan 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.21% 0.43% 0.22% T35
98 WAL Rhys Enoch 400 (Bet Victor: 6 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.21% 0.43% 0.21%
99 ENG Ross McGowan 400 (10Bet: 1 @ 1/1) 0.25% 0.21% 0.4% 0.19% T27
100 ENG David Coupland 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.21% 0.32% 0.1% MC
101 GER Nicolai Von Dellingshausen 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.21% 0.32% 0.1% T21
102 ENG Andrew Wilson 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.21% 0.26% 0.05% MC
103 RSA Bryce Easton 408 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.24% 0.21% 0.83% 0.62% MC
104 ITA Lorenzo Gagli 408 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.24% 0.21% 0.47% 0.26% T49
105 SWE Jens Dantorp 408 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.24% 0.21% 0.33% 0.12% T62
106 AUS Maverick Antcliff 427 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.23% 0.2% 0.38% 0.18% MC
107 POR Ricardo Santos 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.17% 0.89% 0.72% T49
108 ESP Pep Angles Ros 500 (Ladbrokes: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.17% 0.85% 0.68% MC
109 SCO David Drysdale 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.17% 0.38% 0.21% T40
110 AUS Scott Hend 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.17% 0.37% 0.2% MC
111 ENG Oliver Fisher 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.17% 0.31% 0.14% MC
112 GER Marcel Schneider 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.17% 0.25% 0.08% MC
113 ENG Ashley Chesters 503 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.2% 0.17% 0.53% 0.36% MC
114 MAS Gavin Green 503 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.2% 0.17% 0.48% 0.31% T5
115 ENG Chris Wood 512 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.19% 0.17% 0.28% 0.12% T49
116 WAL Oliver Farr 588 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.17% 0.15% 0.31% 0.16%
117 ENG Chris Paisley 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.14% 0.42% 0.28% MC
118 SCO Marc Warren 664 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.15% 0.13% 0.27% 0.14% MC
119 GER Bernd Ritthammer 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.11% 0.24% 0.13% T35
120 FRA Robin Roussel 759 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.13% 0.11% 0.39% 0.28% T69
121 RSA Haydn Porteous 800 (10Bet: 1 @ 1/1) 0.12% 0.11% 0.52% 0.41% MC
122 NED Daan Huizing 800 (10Bet: 1 @ 1/1) 0.12% 0.11% 0.41% 0.3% WD
123 NIR Cormac Sharvin 800 (10Bet: 1 @ 1/1) 0.12% 0.11% 0.23% 0.12% MC
124 ENG Jack Singh Brar 883 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.11% 0.1% 0.49% 0.39% MC
125 ENG Richard McEvoy 883 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.11% 0.1% 0.39% 0.29% MC
126 SWE Joel Sjoholm 883 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.11% 0.1% 0.29% 0.19% T40
127 RSA Jovan Rebula 949 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.11% 0.09% 1.3% 1.21% MC
128 NIR Jonathan Caldwell 949 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.11% 0.09% 0.39% 0.3% T40
129 ENG David Howell 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.09% 0.39% 0.31% MC
130 FRA Joel Stalter 1000 (10Bet: 1 @ 1/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.39% 0.31% MC
131 KOR Taehee Lee 1000 (10Bet: 1 @ 1/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.23% 0.14% WD
132 SCO Euan Walker 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.09% 0.22% 0.14% MC
133 JOR Shergo Kurdi 1250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.08% 0.07% 0.22% 0.15% MC
134 SWE Jesper Kennegard 1500 (10Bet: 1 @ 1/1) 0.07% 0.06% 0.33% 0.28% MC
135 THA Suradit Yongcharoenchai 1500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.06% 0.23% 0.17% MC
136 ENG Graeme Storm 2000 (10Bet: 1 @ 1/1) 0.05% 0.04% 0.58% 0.54% MC
137 ESP Carlos Pigem 2000 (10Bet: 1 @ 1/1) 0.05% 0.04% 0.24% 0.2% T49
138 MAR Ahmed Marjane 2000 (10Bet: 1 @ 1/1) 0.05% 0.04% 0.22% 0.18% MC
139 CHN Zhang Huilin 2500 (10Bet: 1 @ 1/1) 0.04% 0.03% 0.23% 0.2% MC
140 QAT Saleh Musbah Al Kaabi 2500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% 0.22% 0.19% MC
141 KSA Faisal Mohammed Al Salhab 2500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% 0.22% 0.19% MC
142 ESP Pablo Martin Benavides 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
143 CHN Backjun Bobby An 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
144 GER Matthias Schmid 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
145 QAT Ali Abdullah Rahman Al Shahrani 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
146 DEN Mikkel Mathiesen 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 9.3 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 4.6 %

Key


Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Betfair Exchange 1 @ 1/1 12.4% 12.4%
2 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 36.7% 20.4%
3 QuinnBet 6 @ 1/5 38.3% 24.1%
4 Coral 7 @ 1/5 57.3% 29.5%
5 Betway 7 @ 1/5 57.6% 29.8%
6 Ladbrokes 7 @ 1/5 58.1% 30.2%
7 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 46.8% 31.7%
8 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 47% 31.9%
9 Skybet 6 @ 1/5 48.9% 33.6%
10 10Bet 1 @ 1/1 34.1% 34.1%
11 Boyle Sports 6 @ 1/5 50.1% 34.8%
12 Sporting Index 5 @ 1/4 53.2% 35%
13 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 51.2% 35.8%
14 Betfair Sportsbook 7 @ 1/5 65.2% 36%
15 Paddy Power 7 @ 1/5 65.2% 36%
16 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 52% 36.4%
17 Parimatch 6 @ 1/5 52% 36.4%
18 Betfred 6 @ 1/5 53.3% 37.6%
19 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 58.8% 42.6%
20 VBet 6 @ 1/5 72.9% 55.2%