Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 28.5 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 9.7 %

Total Probability Staked: 23.1 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 111.5

Total Profit: +11.4

Alfred Dunhill Links Championship

30/09/2021 - 03/10/2021

Up to date as of: 2 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 USA Billy Horschel 14 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 6.67% 5.03% 2.61% -2.42% T36
2 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 14 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 6.67% 5.03% 1.61% -3.42% T7
3 IRL Shane Lowry 16 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 5.88% 4.44% 3.03% -1.4% T4
4 SWE Alexander Noren 16 (888sport: 7 @ 1/5) 5.88% 4.44% 2.63% -1.8% T12
5 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 18 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 5.26% 3.97% 1.5% -2.47% T2
6 RSA Branden Grace 28 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 3.45% 2.6% 2.14% -0.46% T27
7 SCO Robert MacIntyre 33 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.22% 1.4% -0.82% MC
8 BEL Thomas Pieters 33 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.94% 2.22% 0.86% -1.36% T39
9 FRA Victor Perez 33 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.94% 2.22% 0.36% -1.86% MC
10 BEL Thomas Detry 40 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.84% 1.2% -0.64% MC
11 ENG Sam Horsfield 40 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.84% 0.83% -1.01% MC
12 USA Johannes Veerman 50 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.48% 1.63% 0.15% MC 6.42
13 SCO Calum Hill 50 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.48% 1.08% -0.4% T17
14 ITA Guido Migliozzi 55 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.35% 1.69% 0.34% T17 5.84
15 USA Sean Crocker 55 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.35% 1.64% 0.3% WD 5.84
16 ENG Richard Bland 60 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.24% 2.02% 0.78% T4 (tied w/2) 5.36 +34.8
17 GER Martin Kaymer 60 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.24% 1.32% 0.08% T45 5.36
18 JPN Masahiro Kawamura 60 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.24% 1.05% -0.19% MC
19 RSA Dean Burmester 66 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.13% 1.51% 0.38% T7 (tied w/2) 4.88 +34.7
20 WAL Jamie Donaldson 66 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.13% 1.11% -0.02% WD 4.88
21 ENG Laurie Canter 66 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.13% 0.78% -0.34% MC
22 ENG Matthew Jordan 70 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.06% 0.91% -0.15% MC
23 DEN Nicolai Hojgaard 80 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.93% 1.38% 0.44% T14 4.04
24 USA Troy Merritt 80 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.93% 1.34% 0.41% T27 4.04
25 RSA Justin Harding 80 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.93% 1.3% 0.37% T54 4.04
26 ENG Jordan L Smith 80 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.93% 0.79% -0.14% MC
27 NED Joost Luiten 80 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.93% 0.73% -0.2% MC
28 FRA Antoine Rozner 80 (Bet Victor: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.93% 0.67% -0.26% MC
29 NZL Ryan Fox 80 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.93% 0.65% -0.28% T54
30 ENG Andy Sullivan 80 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.93% 0.62% -0.32% T54
31 USA John Catlin 85 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 1.16% 0.88% 0.88% 0.01% T54 3.81
32 ENG Marcus Armitage 90 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.83% 1.2% 0.37% T51 3.6
33 AUS Minwoo Lee 90 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.83% 1.01% 0.18% 58 3.6
34 GER Marcel Siem 90 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.83% 0.75% -0.08% T45
35 SCO Richie Ramsay 90 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.83% 0.63% -0.19% T17
36 ENG Ross Fisher 90 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.83% 0.44% -0.39% MC
37 RSA Jacques Kruyswijk 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.75% 1.12% 0.38% MC 3.24
38 AUS Jason Scrivener 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.75% 1.09% 0.35% MC 3.24
39 POL Adrian Meronk 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.75% 1.07% 0.33% MC 3.24
40 GER Matthias Schmid 100 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.75% 0.9% 0.15% T9 3.24
41 IND Shubhankar Sharma 100 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.75% 0.83% 0.08% MC 3.24
42 SWE Alexander Bjork 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.75% 0.81% 0.06% T45 3.24
43 SWE Vincent Norrman 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.75% 0.76% 0.01% MC 3.24
44 ENG Danny Willett 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.75% 0.7% -0.05% 1
45 ENG Tom Lewis 100 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.75% 0.59% -0.16% T45
46 ESP Rafael Cabrera Bello 100 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.75% 0.51% -0.24% MC
47 SWE Joakim Lagergren 120 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.83% 0.62% 0.75% 0.13% T2 (tied w/2) 2.71 +42
48 FIN Tapio Pulkkanen 125 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% 1.24% 0.64% MC 2.6
49 ITA Edoardo Molinari 125 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% 1.14% 0.55% MC 2.6
50 FIN Kalle Samooja 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% 0.84% 0.24% MC 2.6
51 FRA Alexander Levy 125 (William Hill: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% 0.67% 0.07% MC 2.6
52 ESP Pablo Larrazabal 125 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% 0.58% -0.01% MC 2.6
53 ENG Eddie Pepperell 125 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% 0.56% -0.04% T17
54 FRA Victor Dubuisson 125 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% 0.51% -0.09% MC
55 RSA George Coetzee 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% 0.5% -0.09% MC
56 NED Wil Besseling 125 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% 0.5% -0.1% MC
57 ENG Callum Shinkwin 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% 0.44% -0.15% T39
58 RSA Brandon Stone 140 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.71% 0.54% 0.42% -0.11% MC
59 GER Maximilian Kieffer 150 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% 1.23% 0.73% MC
60 ENG David Horsey 150 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% 0.92% 0.42% T39
61 ITA Francesco Laporta 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% 0.88% 0.38% MC
62 ENG Matthew Southgate 150 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% 0.87% 0.37% MC
63 SWE Kristoffer Broberg 150 (888sport: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% 0.6% 0.1% T9
64 THA Jazz Janewattananond 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.5% 0.58% 0.08% MC
65 ENG James Morrison 150 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% 0.54% 0.04% MC
66 ESP Adrian Otaegui 150 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% 0.5% 0% T27
67 ESP Adria Arnaus 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% 0.44% -0.06% T24
68 RSA Darren Fichardt 150 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% 0.39% -0.11% MC
69 ESP Alejandro Canizares 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.43% 0.93% 0.51% MC
70 SCO David Law 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.43% 0.78% 0.35% MC
71 SCO Grant Forrest 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.43% 0.65% 0.23% T27
72 IRL Padraig Harrington 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.43% 0.59% 0.16% MC
73 DEN Thorbjorn Olesen 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.43% 0.32% -0.1% MC
74 AUS Maverick Antcliff 200 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.75% 0.38% MC
75 ENG Ashley Chesters 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.63% 0.26% MC
76 DEN Soren Kjeldsen 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.48% 0.1% MC
77 DEN Lucas Bjerregaard 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.46% 0.09% T51
78 RSA Wilco Nienaber 200 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.38% 0.44% 0.06% T36
79 BEL Nicolas Colsaerts 200 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.31% -0.06% T27
80 FRA Michael Lorenzo-Vera 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.38% 0.29% -0.09% MC
81 ENG Luke Donald 225 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.44% 0.33% 0.5% 0.17% T27
82 ENG Jack Senior 250 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 1.08% 0.78% MC
83 FRA Romain Langasque 250 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.6% 0.3% MC
84 SCO Connor Syme 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.57% 0.27% MC
85 ESP Nacho Elvira 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.53% 0.23% MC
86 ESP Jorge Campillo 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% T17
87 ITA Renato Paratore 250 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.47% 0.17% MC
88 FRA Benjamin Hebert 250 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.39% 0.09% T45
89 SCO Scott Jamieson 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.3% 0.29% -0.01% MC
90 RSA MJ Daffue 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.18% -0.12% T27
91 SCO Ewen Ferguson 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.15% -0.15% T17
92 RSA Justin Walters 275 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.36% 0.27% 0.98% 0.71% MC
93 FRA Matthieu Pavon 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.59% 0.34% T12
94 ITA Nino Bertasio 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.52% 0.27% MC
95 DEN Jeff Winther 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.42% 0.17% T14
96 FRA Julien Guerrier 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.39% 0.14% MC
97 SCO David Drysdale 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.33% 0.08% 59
98 RSA Louis de Jager 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.26% 0.01% MC
99 ENG Robert Rock 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.18% -0.07% MC
100 SCO Marc Warren 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.18% -0.07% MC
101 RSA Jaco Ahlers 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.16% -0.09% MC
102 SCO Stephen Gallacher 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.21% 0.41% 0.2% T39
103 USA Julian Suri 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.21% 0.39% 0.18% T36
104 FIN Sami Valimaki 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.21% 0.35% 0.13% MC
105 ENG Paul Waring 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.21% 0.31% 0.1% MC
106 ENG Steven Brown 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.21% 0.31% 0.09% MC
107 ENG Chris Wood 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.21% 0.3% 0.09% MC
108 ENG Chris Paisley 350 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.21% 0.24% 0.02% MC
109 SWE Marcus Kinhult 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.21% 0.2% -0.01% MC
110 POR Ricardo Santos 500 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.88% 0.73% MC
111 ENG Oliver Fisher 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.58% 0.43% 60
112 ENG Daniel Gavins 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.53% 0.38% 6
113 ENG Ross McGowan 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.52% 0.37% MC
114 AUS Bryden MacPherson 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.43% 0.28% MC
115 SWE Sebastian Soderberg 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.37% 0.21% T39
116 AUS Scott Hend 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.36% 0.21% MC
117 MAS Gavin Green 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.33% 0.18% MC
118 RSA Zander Lombard 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.32% 0.17% MC
119 WAL Rhys Enoch 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.31% 0.16% T39
120 KOR Yikeun Chang 500 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.31% 0.16% T17
121 ENG Richard McEvoy 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.3% 0.15% MC
122 NZL Josh Geary 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.29% 0.14% MC
123 ESP Alvaro Quiros 500 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.27% 0.12% T27
124 ENG Oliver Wilson 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.23% 0.08% MC
125 FRA Robin Roussel 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.22% 0.07% MC
126 NIR Jonathan Caldwell 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.19% 0.04% MC
127 IRL Paul Dunne 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.18% 0.03% MC
128 BRA Adilson da Silva 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.15% 0% MC
129 RSA Neil Schietekat 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.15% 0% MC
130 AUS Travis Smyth 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.15% 0% MC
131 NZL Denzel Ieremia 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.15% 0% MC
132 IRL John Murphy 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.15% 0% T9
133 NIR Michael Hoey 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.15% -0.01% T24
134 ENG Ben Schmidt 500 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.15% -0.01% MC
135 CHN Li Haotong 500 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.11% -0.04% T14
136 KOR Taehee Lee 600 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.13% 0.38% 0.25% MC
137 NIR Cormac Sharvin 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.13% 0.34% 0.21% MC
138 SWE Peter Hanson 600 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.13% 0.22% 0.1% MC
139 RSA Thriston Lawrence 600 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.13% 0.15% 0.02% MC
140 RSA Ruan Conradie 600 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.13% 0.15% 0.02% MC
141 RSA Thomas Aiken 750 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% T24
142 ITA Lorenzo Gagli 750 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.17% 0.07% MC
143 DEN Thomas Bjorn 750 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.15% 0.05% MC
144 ENG Graeme Storm 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.28% 0.21% MC
145 ITA Andrea Pavan 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.27% 0.2% MC
146 IND Ajeetesh Sandhu 1000 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.27% 0.2% MC
147 USA Berry Henson 1000 (888sport: 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.26% 0.19% MC
148 ENG David Howell 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.26% 0.18% MC
149 FRA Joel Stalter 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.2% 0.13% MC
150 ENG Joe Long 1000 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.17% 0.09% MC
151 AUS Brett Rankin 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.15% 0.07% T51
152 RSA Martin Rohwer 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.15% 0.07% MC
153 RSA Haydn Porteous 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.15% 0.07% MC
154 ENG Angus Flanagan 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.14% 0.07% MC
155 AUS Deyen Lawson 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% 0.13% 0.05% T27
156 FRA Raphael Jacquelin 1500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.05% 0.31% 0.26% MC
157 ENG Matty Lamb 1500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.05% 0.15% 0.09% MC
158 THA Suradit Yongcharoenchai 2000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.12% 0.08% MC
159 ESP Javier Ballesteros 3000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.03% 0.03% 0.15% 0.12% MC
160 RSA Danie van Tonder 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
161 AUS Dimi Papadatos 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
162 ESP Pablo Martin Benavides 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
163 RSA Toto Thimba 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
164 USA McClure Meissner 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
165 ENG Benjamin Jones 0% 0% 0% 0% T45
166 ENG Jack Dyer 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
167 ENG Russell Chrystie 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 28.5 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 9.7 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Skybet 8 @ 1/5 55.6% 18.7%
2 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 39.7% 23.3%
3 888Sport 7 @ 1/5 52.4% 25.9%
4 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 43.3% 29%
5 Parimatch 6 @ 1/5 43.3% 29%
6 Betfair Sportsbook 7 @ 1/5 56.5% 29.3%
7 Paddy Power 7 @ 1/5 56.5% 29.3%
8 Betfred 7 @ 1/5 56.5% 29.3%
9 Betway 7 @ 1/5 57.2% 29.8%
10 Sporting Index 5 @ 1/4 47.6% 30.4%
11 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 49.2% 31.7%
12 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 49.2% 31.7%
13 Mansion Bet 5 @ 1/4 49.2% 31.7%
14 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 47.9% 33.1%
15 VBet 5 @ 1/4 53.3% 35.4%
16 Boyle Sports 7 @ 1/5 64.5% 35.9%
17 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 52% 36.9%
18 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 56% 40.4%