Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 31.2 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 12.7 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.7 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 78.8

Total Profit: -21.3



# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 ENG Matt Wallace 10 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 9.09% 6.87% 3.42% -3.45% T48
2 GER Martin Kaymer 12 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 7.69% 5.81% 4.93% -0.88% T5
3 FRA Victor Perez 12 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 7.69% 5.81% 2.68% -3.13% MC
4 AUT Bernd Wiesberger 16 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 5.88% 4.44% 2.1% -2.35% T16
5 ENG Lee Westwood 18 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 5.26% 3.98% 2.92% -1.05% T30
6 ENG Jordan L Smith 22 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.28% 2% -1.28% MC
7 ESP Adria Arnaus 25 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.91% 1.5% -1.4% T5
8 ITA Renato Paratore 28 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.6% 3.26% 0.65% T65 11.47
9 ESP Adrian Otaegui 28 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.6% 2.34% -0.27% T22
10 AUT Matthias Schwab 28 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.6% 1.43% -1.17% T30
11 RSA Wilco Nienaber 28 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.6% 1.32% -1.29% MC
12 NED Joost Luiten 28 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.6% 0.66% -1.95% T10
13 ENG Matthew Jordan 33 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.22% 1.6% -0.62% T30
14 ENG Laurie Canter 45 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.64% 2.6% 0.96% T2 (tied w/2) 7.24 +36.2
15 ENG David Horsey 45 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.64% 1.91% 0.26% T48 7.24
16 ENG Chris Paisley 45 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.17% 1.64% 1.7% 0.06% T39 7.24
17 DEN Joachim B Hansen 45 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.64% 1.2% -0.45% WD
18 DEN Thorbjorn Olesen 45 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.64% 0.75% -0.9% MC
19 FRA Antoine Rozner 50 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.48% 1.21% -0.27% T10
20 ITA Guido Migliozzi 50 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.48% 0.6% -0.88% T22
21 ESP Jorge Campillo 55 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.35% 1.76% 0.42% T48 5.94
22 ENG Marcus Armitage 60 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.24% 1.84% 0.6% T10 5.46
23 USA Johannes Veerman 60 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.24% 1.45% 0.21% T46 5.46
24 FRA Adrien Saddier 60 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.24% 1.13% -0.11% MC
25 WAL Jamie Donaldson 60 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.24% 1.04% -0.2% T39
26 AUS Jason Scrivener 66 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.13% 1.78% 0.65% MC 4.97
27 SCO Marc Warren 66 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.13% 1.27% 0.14% T39 4.97
28 NED Wil Besseling 66 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.13% 1.19% 0.06% T16 4.97
29 SCO Scott Jamieson 66 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.13% 0.89% -0.24% T48
30 ENG Jack Senior 75 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.32% 0.99% 0.45% -0.54% T63
31 ENG Steven Brown 80 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.93% 1.79% 0.85% MC 4.11
32 ENG Richard Bland 80 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.93% 1.25% 0.32% T16 4.11
33 AUS Maverick Antcliff 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.93% 1.13% 0.2% T55 4.11
34 RSA Dean Burmester 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.93% 0.96% 0.03% T5
35 SWE Rikard Karlberg 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.93% 0.76% -0.17% MC
36 FRA Matthieu Pavon 90 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.83% 1.13% 0.3% T30 3.66
37 POL Adrian Meronk 90 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.83% 0.6% -0.23% T22
38 ZIM Scott Vincent 100 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.75% 1.01% 0.26% MC 3.3
39 BEL Nicolas Colsaerts 100 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.75% 0.73% -0.02% T2
40 ITA Lorenzo Gagli 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.6% 1.24% 0.64% T55 2.64
41 AUS Wade Ormsby 125 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% 1.06% 0.46% MC 2.64
42 RSA Justin Walters 125 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% 0.94% 0.34% MC 2.64
43 GER Sebastian Heisele 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.6% 0.84% 0.24% 4 2.64 +42.6
44 FRA Clement Sordet 125 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% 0.77% 0.17% MC 2.64
45 ENG Matthew Baldwin 125 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% 0.7% 0.1% MC 2.64
46 ESP Nacho Elvira 125 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% 0.61% 0.01% MC
47 RSA Bryce Easton 125 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% 0.57% -0.03% T16
48 FRA Robin Sciot-Siegrist 125 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% 0.4% -0.2% MC
49 SWE Oscar Lengden 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.5% 1.22% 0.72% T30
50 NIR Jonathan Caldwell 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.5% 0.8% 0.3% T5
51 RSA Louis de Jager 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.5% 0.63% 0.13% T22
52 CHN Wu Ashun 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.5% 0.48% -0.02% MC
53 GER Hurly Long 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% 0.46% -0.04% T16
54 ESP Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 160 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.62% 0.47% 0.35% -0.12% T39
55 ESP Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez 175 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.43% 0.93% 0.5% MC
56 NED Darius Van Driel 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.43% 0.75% 0.32% T30
57 ENG Toby Tree 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.43% 0.63% 0.2% T46
58 ENG David Coupland 175 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.43% 0.53% 0.1% T55
59 ITA Francesco Laporta 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.43% 0.33% -0.1% T30
60 CAN Aaron Cockerill 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.38% 0.96% 0.58% T22
61 SWE Niklas Lemke 200 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.48% 0.1% T30
62 ITA Edoardo Molinari 200 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.4% 0.03% MC
63 ESP Alejandro Canizares 200 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.36% -0.01% MC
64 ITA Matteo Manassero 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.38% 0.3% -0.08% MC
65 SWE Jens Fahrbring 225 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.44% 0.33% 0.85% 0.51% T48
66 FIN Tapio Pulkkanen 225 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.44% 0.33% 0.47% 0.14% T39
67 ITA Nino Bertasio 225 (VBet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.44% 0.33% 0.32% -0.01% MC
68 ENG Dale Whitnell 250 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.84% 0.54% T22
69 NED Daan Huizing 250 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.67% 0.36% MC
70 ENG Ben Evans 250 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% MC
71 ESP Alvaro Quiros 250 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.39% 0.09% MC
72 GER Marcel Schneider 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.25% 1.04% 0.79% T39
73 FRA Joel Stalter 300 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.69% 0.43% T22
74 FRA Robin Roussel 300 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.65% 0.4% T53
75 ESP Carlos Pigem 300 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.56% 0.31% MC
76 NED Lars Van Meijel 300 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.34% 0.09% T53
77 FRA Romain Wattel 300 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.31% 0.06% MC
78 ITA Enrico Di Nitto 300 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.31% 0.06% MC
79 RSA JC Ritchie 300 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.3% 0.05% MC
80 NIR Cormac Sharvin 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.22% 0.62% 0.4% T60
81 SCO David Drysdale 350 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.22% 0.43% 0.22% MC
82 POR Pedro Figueiredo 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.22% 0.38% 0.16% MC
83 POR Ricardo Santos 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.22% 0.36% 0.14% MC
84 FRA Damien Perrier 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.22% 0.31% 0.1% T10
85 ITA Lorenzo Scalise 400 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.49% 0.3% T63
86 FRA Julien Quesne 400 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.32% 0.13% T14
87 NOR Kristoffer Reitan 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.19% 0.31% 0.12% T5
88 FRA Jean-Baptiste Gonnet 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 1.02% 0.87% WD
89 FRA Mathieu Fenasse 500 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.58% 0.43% MC
90 SWE Joel Sjoholm 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.5% 0.35% T22
91 SCO Liam Johnston 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.46% 0.31% MC
92 IMN Tom Gandy 500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.43% 0.28% MC
93 SCO Daniel Young 500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.33% 0.18% T60
94 KOR Yikeun Chang 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.3% 0.15% T39
95 ESP Eduardo De la Riva 500 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.3% 0.15% T60
96 DEN Benjamin Henry Poke 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.3% 0.15% MC
97 IND Gaganjeet Bhullar 500 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.3% 0.15% T55
98 GER Nicolai Von Dellingshausen 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.13% 1.03% 0.9% T55
99 ENG Steven Tiley 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.13% 0.52% 0.4% T65
100 IRL Gavin Moynihan 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.13% 0.34% 0.21% MC
101 ENG Ross McGowan 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.1% 0.62% 0.52% 1
102 ITA Federico Maccario 750 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.31% 0.21% T30
103 ITA Aron Zemmer 750 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.31% 0.21% MC
104 FRA Raphael Jacquelin 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% 0.33% 0.25% WD
105 ESP Emilio Cuartero Blanco 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% 0.31% 0.24% T14
106 ITA Andrea Saracino 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% 0.3% 0.22% MC
107 ITA Giulio Castagnara 1000 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.3% 0.22% MC
108 ITA Stefano Mazzoli 1000 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.3% 0.22% MC
109 ITA Filippo Bergamaschi 1500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.05% 0.32% 0.27% MC
110 IND S.S.P. Chawrasia 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
111 SCO Craig Howie 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
112 DEN Nicolai Hojgaard 0% 0% 0% 0% T16
113 ITA Andrea Romano(June2000) 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
114 ITA Tommaso Perrino 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 31.2 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 12.7 %

Key


Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 39.6% 24.6%
2 Boyle Sports 8 @ 1/5 64.5% 27.6%
3 Betfred 7 @ 1/5 53.9% 29.1%
4 Skybet 6 @ 1/5 41.9% 29.5%
5 Betfair Sportsbook 7 @ 1/5 55.4% 30.2%
6 Betway 7 @ 1/5 56.3% 31.1%
7 Paddy Power 7 @ 1/5 56.9% 31.4%
8 VBet 5 @ 1/4 47.9% 32%
9 Redzone 5 @ 1/4 51.9% 35.6%
10 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 52.2% 35.9%
11 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 50% 36.8%
12 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 50.4% 37.2%
13 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 54.1% 40.6%
14 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 54.1% 40.6%
15 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 60% 45.9%