Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 28.4 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 10.6 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.1 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 221.6

Total Profit: +121.5



# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 ESP Jon Rahm 8 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 11.11% 8.64% 3.4% -5.24% T17
2 USA Justin Thomas 10 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 9.09% 7.07% 3.96% -3.11% T12
3 USA Xander Schauffele 12 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 7.69% 5.98% 2.99% -2.99% 2
4 NIR Rory McIlroy 12 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 7.69% 5.98% 2.69% -3.3% T21
5 USA Matthew Wolff 18 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 5.26% 4.09% 3.54% -0.56% 73
6 USA Collin Morikawa 22 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.38% 4.56% 1.18% T12 15.28
7 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 22 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.38% 3.26% -0.12% T3
8 USA Patrick Cantlay 22 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.38% 2.13% -1.25% T38
9 JPN Hideki Matsuyama 25 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.99% 2.43% -0.57% T21
10 USA Daniel Berger 28 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 3.45% 2.68% 3.6% 0.92% T28 12.12
11 USA Brooks Koepka 28 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.68% 1.44% -1.24% T28
12 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 33 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.94% 2.29% 1.41% -0.88% T59
13 NOR Viktor Hovland 35 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.78% 2.16% 2.68% 0.52% T12 9.77
14 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 40 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.9% 2.94% 1.04% T12 8.58
15 USA Scottie Scheffler 40 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.9% 1.79% -0.1% T52
16 RSA Louis Oosthuizen 40 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.9% 1.59% -0.31% T48
17 KOR Sungjae Im 40 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.9% 1.43% -0.47% T45
18 USA Harris English 45 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.17% 1.69% 2.24% 0.55% 10 7.64
19 CHI Joaquin Niemann 45 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.69% 1.26% -0.43% 6
20 MEX Abraham Ancer 50 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.53% 1.7% 0.17% T28
21 ESP Sergio Garcia 50 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.53% 1.06% -0.46% T21
22 AUS Jason Day 55 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.39% 1.31% -0.08% WD
23 ENG Paul Casey 60 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.28% 1.76% 0.48% T69 5.77
24 USA Gary Woodland 60 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.28% 0.77% -0.51% 72
25 ENG Ian Poulter 66 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.16% 1.94% 0.78% T12 5.25
26 USA Brendon Todd 66 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.16% 1.59% 0.43% T52 5.25
27 USA Bubba Watson 66 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.16% 1.33% 0.17% T7
28 USA Rickie Fowler 66 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.16% 0.82% -0.34% T28
29 ENG Justin Rose 70 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.41% 1.1% 1.16% 0.07% T52
30 USA Billy Horschel 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.96% 2.34% 1.38% T28 4.34
31 KOR Siwoo Kim 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.96% 1.51% 0.55% T17 4.34
32 USA Kevin Kisner 90 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.85% 2.2% 1.34% T45 3.87
33 SWE Alexander Noren 90 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.85% 1.85% 1% 76 3.87
34 USA Jason Kokrak 90 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.85% 1.27% 0.42% 1 3.87 +221.6
35 USA Russell Henley 90 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.85% 1.05% 0.19% T3
36 IRL Shane Lowry 90 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.85% 0.85% 0% T28
37 AUS Cameron Smith 90 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.85% 0.66% -0.2% 11
38 USA Mackenzie Hughes 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.77% 2% 1.23% T65 3.48
39 USA Brian Harman 100 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.77% 1.32% 0.55% T28 3.48
40 USA Matt Kuchar 100 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.77% 0.58% -0.2% T52
41 CAN Corey Conners 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.7% 0.95% 0.25% T61 3.17
42 USA Kevin Na 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.7% 0.91% 0.21% T45
43 USA Jordan Spieth 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.7% 0.5% -0.2% T38
44 AUS Marc Leishman 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.62% 0.32% -0.3% T52
45 CAN Adam Hadwin 140 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.71% 0.55% 0.68% 0.13% T28
46 KOR Byeong Hun An 140 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.71% 0.55% 0.56% 0.01% T42
47 USA Ryan Palmer 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.52% 1.32% 0.81% T17
48 USA JT Poston 150 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.52% 0.99% 0.48% 51
49 USA Cameron Champ 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.52% 0.84% 0.33% T42
50 USA Kevin Streelman 160 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.62% 0.48% 1.13% 0.65% T21
51 USA Brendan Steele 160 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.62% 0.48% 0.77% 0.29% T65
52 RSA Dylan Frittelli 175 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.44% 1% 0.56% T69
53 USA Adam Long 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.44% 0.68% 0.24% 74
54 USA Lanto Griffin 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.39% 1.22% 0.84% T7
55 USA Keegan Bradley 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.39% 0.79% 0.4% T42
56 USA Joel Dahmen 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.39% 0.67% 0.29% T38
57 USA Harry Higgs 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.31% 0.49% 0.18% T21
58 USA Talor Gooch 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.26% 0.62% 0.37% 5
59 USA Tom Hoge 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.26% 0.61% 0.35% T38
60 USA Andrew Landry 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.26% 0.38% 0.12% T61
61 MEX Carlos Ortiz 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.26% 0.37% 0.11% T48
62 NZL Danny Lee 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.26% 0.35% 0.09% T21
63 USA Tyler Duncan 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.22% 1% 0.77% T28
64 USA Michael Thompson 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.22% 0.71% 0.49% T65
65 KOR Joohyung Kim 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.22% 0.12% -0.11% 64
66 USA Richy Werenski 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.19% 0.83% 0.64% T28
67 USA Mark Hubbard 400 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.72% 0.52% T17
68 USA Robby Shelton 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.19% 0.36% 0.17% T21
69 KOR Sunghoon Kang 400 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.25% 0.06% 75
70 USA Jim Herman 500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.73% 0.58% T65
71 KOR Kyounghoon Lee 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.26% 0.11% T52
72 CAN Nick Taylor 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.16% 0.22% 0.07% T61
73 KOR Taehee Lee 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.11% -0.05% 77
74 KOR Jaekyeong Lee 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.11% -0.05% T59
75 KOR Jeongu Ham 0% 0% 0% 0% 71
76 COL Sebastian Munoz 0% 0% 0% 0% 9
77 KOR Seonghyeon Kim 0% 0% 0% 0% T52
78 KOR Hanbyeol Kim 0% 0% 0% 0% T48

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 28.4 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 10.6 %

Key


Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 31.6% 17.6%
2 Skybet 7 @ 1/5 43.7% 20.7%
3 William Hill 7 @ 1/5 44.4% 21.2%
4 Boyle Sports 7 @ 1/5 46.7% 23.2%
5 Betfair Sportsbook 7 @ 1/5 49% 25.1%
6 Paddy Power 7 @ 1/5 49% 25.1%
7 Betfred 6 @ 1/5 38.6% 26.4%
8 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 41.2% 28.9%
9 Redzone 5 @ 1/4 46.8% 31.1%
10 SportPesa 5 @ 1/4 46.8% 31.1%
11 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 46.8% 31.1%
12 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 46.8% 31.1%
13 VBet 6 @ 1/5 44.8% 32.1%
14 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 49.5% 36.5%
15 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 49.7% 36.6%
16 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 52.9% 39.6%
17 Betway 6 @ 1/5 57.7% 44%