Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 28.6 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 6.7 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.2 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.2

Total Won: 254.4

Total Profit: +154.2

Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship presented by EGA

16/01/2020 - 19/01/2020

Up to date as of: 4 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 USA Patrick Cantlay 10 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 9.09% 6.96% 4.44% -2.52% T34
2 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 10 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 9.09% 6.96% 4.37% -2.58% T2
3 USA Brooks Koepka 11 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 8.33% 6.38% 1.42% -4.95% T34
4 RSA Louis Oosthuizen 16 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 5.88% 4.5% 3.7% -0.8% 5
5 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 20 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.64% 2.73% -0.91% T2
6 IRL Shane Lowry 20 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 4.76% 3.64% 1.23% -2.41% MC
7 BEL Thomas Pieters 25 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.94% 2.45% -0.5% T30
8 USA Bryson DeChambeau 25 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.94% 1.61% -1.33% MC
9 NOR Viktor Hovland 28 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 3.45% 2.64% 1.79% -0.85% MC
10 RSA Branden Grace 28 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 3.45% 2.64% 0.94% -1.7% T17
11 AUT Bernd Wiesberger 33 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.25% 2.01% -0.24% T8
12 ESP Sergio Garcia 33 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.25% 1.83% -0.42% T8
13 ENG Danny Willett 35 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.13% 2.33% 0.21% MC 9.6
14 AUT Matthias Schwab 40 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.87% 2.95% 1.08% T42 8.43
15 ESP Rafael Cabrera Bello 45 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.66% 1.71% 0.04% T12 7.51
16 NED Joost Luiten 45 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 2.17% 1.66% 1.24% -0.43% T42
17 ENG Tom Lewis 45 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.66% 0.69% -0.98% MC
18 GER Martin Kaymer 45 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.66% 0.59% -1.07% T8
19 RSA Erik van Rooyen 50 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.5% 1.76% 0.26% T12 6.78
20 ENG Matt Wallace 50 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.5% 1.13% -0.37% 64
21 BEL Thomas Detry 50 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.5% 1.01% -0.49% T55
22 FRA Victor Perez 66 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.14% 1.38% 0.24% T2 (tied w/3) 5.16 +45.2
23 ESP Pablo Larrazabal 66 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.14% 0.49% -0.66% MC
24 ENG Paul Waring 75 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.32% 1.01% 1.25% 0.25% T12 4.55
25 ENG Ian Poulter 80 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.94% 1.38% 0.43% MC 4.27
26 CHN Li Haotong 80 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.94% 0.9% -0.04% 41 4.27
27 RSA Charl Schwartzel 80 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.94% 0.83% -0.11% MC 4.27
28 ESP Adria Arnaus 80 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.94% 0.82% -0.13% T51 4.27
29 ENG Lee Westwood 80 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.94% 0.76% -0.18% 1 4.27 +209.2
30 RSA George Coetzee 90 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.84% 1.04% 0.2% MC 3.8
31 USA Kurt Kitayama 100 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.76% 1.31% 0.55% T34 3.43
32 ENG Andrew Johnston 100 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.76% 1.28% 0.52% T69 3.43
33 ENG Andy Sullivan 100 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.76% 0.83% 0.08% T21 3.43
34 FRA Benjamin Hebert 100 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.76% 0.77% 0.01% MC 3.43
35 ITA Guido Migliozzi 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.61% 1.16% 0.55% MC 2.75
36 AUS Wade Ormsby 125 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.61% 0.98% 0.37% T51 2.75
37 AUS Jason Scrivener 125 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.61% 0.65% 0.05% T59 2.75
38 FRA Romain Langasque 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.61% 0.58% -0.03% T34 2.75
39 ENG Eddie Pepperell 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.61% 0.48% -0.12% MC 2.75
40 NZL Ryan Fox 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.61% 0.41% -0.2% MC 2.75
41 ENG Jordan L Smith 125 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.61% 0.39% -0.21% T21 2.75
42 MAS Gavin Green 140 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.71% 0.54% 0.58% 0.04% T21
43 THA Kiradech Aphibarnrat 140 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.71% 0.54% 0.45% -0.1% T42
44 ESP Jorge Campillo 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.51% 0.69% 0.19% T34
45 ENG Ross Fisher 150 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.51% 0.64% 0.13% T6
46 RSA Richard Sterne 150 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.51% 0.54% 0.04% MC
47 RSA Christiaan Bezuidenhout 160 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.62% 0.48% 0.94% 0.46% T59
48 ITA Andrea Pavan 175 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.43% 1.4% 0.97% MC
49 ITA Renato Paratore 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.43% 0.84% 0.41% T21
50 FIN Mikko Korhonen 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.43% 0.81% 0.38% MC
51 BEL Nicolas Colsaerts 175 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.43% 0.46% 0.02% T42
52 RSA Shaun Norris 200 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.38% 2.2% 1.82% T6
53 ENG Aaron Rai 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.38% 1.04% 0.66% MC
54 FIN Kalle Samooja 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.87% 0.49% MC
55 RSA Zander Lombard 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.83% 0.45% T34
56 ENG Matthew Southgate 200 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.38% 0.54% 0.16% MC
57 RSA Brandon Stone 200 (William Hill: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.44% 0.06% T21
58 KOR Jeunghun Wang 200 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.38% 0.37% -0.01% MC
59 FRA Victor Dubuisson 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.22% -0.16% T69
60 SCO Richie Ramsay 225 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.44% 0.34% 0.65% 0.32% T42
61 RSA Justin Harding 225 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.44% 0.34% 0.48% 0.14% T51
62 FRA Alexander Levy 225 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.44% 0.34% 0.34% 0% MC
63 ENG Sam Horsfield 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.3% 1.11% 0.8% T12
64 IND Shubhankar Sharma 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.73% 0.42% T59
65 ENG Ashley Chesters 250 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.3% 0.51% 0.21% T42
66 ENG Chris Paisley 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.51% 0.21% MC
67 RSA Haydn Porteous 250 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.3% 0.32% 0.01% T59
68 USA David Lipsky 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.3% 0.31% 0.01% T30
69 SWE Joakim Lagergren 275 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.36% 0.28% 1.11% 0.84% T21
70 SCO Scott Jamieson 275 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.36% 0.28% 0.6% 0.32% T8
71 SWE Alexander Bjork 275 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.36% 0.28% 0.43% 0.15% T69
72 PAR Fabrizio Zanotti 275 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.36% 0.28% 0.41% 0.13% MC
73 DEN Soren Kjeldsen 300 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.61% 0.35% T51
74 IRL Padraig Harrington 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.25% 0.6% 0.34% MC
75 ENG Jack Singh Brar 300 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.25% 0.47% 0.22% T12
76 WAL Jamie Donaldson 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.43% 0.17% MC
77 CHN Wu Ashun 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.37% 0.11% MC
78 DEN Jeff Winther 300 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.25% 0.37% 0.11% T59
79 RSA Thomas Aiken 300 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.25% 0.26% 0% MC
80 AUS Scott Hend 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.22% 0.76% 0.54% T17
81 FIN Tapio Pulkkanen 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.22% 0.65% 0.44% MC
82 RSA Dean Burmester 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.22% 0.56% 0.35% MC
83 ITA Nino Bertasio 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.22% 0.56% 0.34% MC
84 AUS Lucas Herbert 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.22% 0.43% 0.21% T67
85 SCO Grant Forrest 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.22% 0.28% 0.06% 66
86 GER Maximilian Kieffer 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.22% 0.26% 0.04% MC
87 ENG Richard Bland 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.22% 0.25% 0.04% MC
88 ENG David Horsey 350 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.22% 0.25% 0.03% MC
89 ESP Adrian Otaegui 350 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.22% 0.13% -0.09% MC
90 ENG Robert Rock 350 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.22% 0.13% -0.09% MC
91 SWE Sebastian Soderberg 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.19% 0.91% 0.72% T42
92 ITA Francesco Laporta 400 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.66% 0.47% T17
93 ENG Steven Brown 400 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.58% 0.39% MC
94 ENG Marcus Armitage 400 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.51% 0.32% MC
95 JPN Masahiro Kawamura 400 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.49% 0.3% T17
96 FRA Matthieu Pavon 400 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.48% 0.29% T55
97 ITA Edoardo Molinari 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.19% 0.38% 0.19% T21
98 ESP Nacho Elvira 400 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.38% 0.19% T67
99 FRA Julien Guerrier 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.19% 0.32% 0.13% MC
100 ESP Alvaro Quiros 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.19% 0.28% 0.09% MC
101 USA Sean Crocker 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.19% 0.25% 0.06% T42
102 ENG Chris Wood 400 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.19% 0.24% 0.05% MC
103 GER Sebastian Heisele 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.15% 0.61% 0.46% T21
104 ENG James Morrison 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.15% 0.34% 0.19% MC
105 SCO Stephen Gallacher 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.31% 0.16% MC
106 THA Thongchai Jaidee 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.28% 0.13% MC
107 ENG Oliver Fisher 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.28% 0.12% T42
108 ENG Callum Shinkwin 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.15% 0.23% 0.07% MC
109 ENG Oliver Wilson 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.13% 0.27% 0.14% MC
110 FIN Roope Kakko 600 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.13% 0.23% 0.1% MC
111 AUS Zach Murray 600 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.13% 0.17% 0.05% T21
112 IND Gaganjeet Bhullar 600 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.13% 0.15% 0.02% MC
113 POL Adrian Meronk 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.13% 0% -0.13% MC
114 SCO Calum Hill 750 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.1% 0.71% 0.61% MC
115 RSA Justin Walters 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% T55
116 ITA Lorenzo Gagli 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% MC
117 SWE Robert Karlsson 750 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.23% 0.12% MC
118 ENG Graeme Storm 750 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.1% 0.14% 0.04% MC
119 USA Josh Hill 750 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.14% 0.04% MC
120 SCO David Drysdale 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% 0.26% 0.18% T55
121 DEN Thomas Bjorn 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% 0.15% 0.07% 65
122 ENG Richard McEvoy 1000 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.15% 0.07% MC
123 SCO Paul Lawrie 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.14% 0.07% MC
124 CHN Lin YuxinAm) 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% 0.14% 0.06% T30
125 SCO David Law 1500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.05% 0.15% 0.1% T69
126 FRA Raphael Jacquelin 1500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.05% 0.14% 0.08% MC
127 ENG David Howell 2000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.23% 0.19% 73
128 FRA Michael Lorenzo-Vera 0% 0% 0% 0% T34
129 ENG Jack Senior 0% 0% 0% 0% T30
130 DEN Rasmus Hojgaard 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
131 UAE Ahmed Skaik 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 28.6 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 6.7 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Sportingbet 6 @ 1/4 46.8% 18.3%
2 Skybet 7 @ 1/5 44.2% 20.9%
3 Betfair Sportsbook 8 @ 1/5 60.4% 24.4%
4 Paddy Power 8 @ 1/5 61% 24.9%
5 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 40.9% 25.8%
6 Betfred 7 @ 1/5 50.9% 26.5%
7 Betway 7 @ 1/5 53.4% 28.6%
8 Boyle Sports 8 @ 1/5 65.9% 28.6%
9 Coral 7 @ 1/5 54.7% 29.7%
10 Ladbrokes 5 @ 1/4 45.4% 29.8%
11 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 43.6% 30.9%
12 Redzone 5 @ 1/4 48.5% 32.5%
13 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 48.5% 32.5%
14 MoPlay 5 @ 1/4 48.5% 32.5%
15 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 48.5% 32.5%
16 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 51% 37.7%
17 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 52.9% 39.5%
18 VBet 5 @ 1/4 56.8% 40%
19 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 54.1% 40.6%
20 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 54.1% 40.6%