Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 37.9 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 13.7 %

Total Probability Staked: 23.0 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.2

Total Won: 31.6

Total Profit: -68.5

Waste Management Phoenix Open

30/01/2020 - 02/02/2020

Up to date as of: 4 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 ESP Jon Rahm 6 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 14.29% 10.04% 4.46% -5.58% T9
2 USA Justin Thomas 9 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 10% 7.03% 4.26% -2.77% T3
3 USA Webb Simpson 14 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 6.67% 4.69% 3.08% -1.6% 1
4 JPN Hideki Matsuyama 16 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 5.88% 4.13% 2.22% -1.91% T16
5 USA Rickie Fowler 16 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 5.88% 4.13% 1.92% -2.21% T37
6 USA Xander Schauffele 18 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 5.26% 3.7% 1.81% -1.88% T16
7 USA Gary Woodland 28 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.42% 1.9% -0.52% T40
8 USA Bryson DeChambeau 28 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.42% 1.45% -0.97% T52
9 USA Matt Kuchar 28 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.42% 0.57% -1.86% T16
10 USA Tony Finau 30 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.27% 1.75% -0.52% 2
11 USA Bubba Watson 30 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.27% 0.71% -1.55% T3
12 KOR Sungjae Im 33 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.07% 2.5% 0.43% T34 8.98
13 USA Brandt Snedeker 33 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.07% 1.76% -0.3% MC
14 USA Collin Morikawa 33 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 2.94% 2.07% 1.16% -0.9% T25
15 RSA Branden Grace 45 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 2.17% 1.53% 1.38% -0.15% T9
16 USA Scottie Scheffler 50 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.38% 1.77% 0.39% MC 5.99
17 USA Jordan Spieth 50 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.38% 1.05% -0.33% MC
18 NOR Viktor Hovland 50 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.38% 0.93% -0.45% MC
19 USA Matthew Wolff 60 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.15% 1.04% -0.11% MC 5.01
20 USA Ryan Moore 66 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.05% 1.66% 0.61% MC 4.56
21 AUS Cameron Smith 66 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.05% 1.49% 0.44% MC 4.56
22 USA Ryan Palmer 66 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.05% 1.41% 0.36% MC 4.56
23 USA Jason Kokrak 66 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.05% 0.96% -0.09% MC 4.56
24 KOR Byeong Hun An 66 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.05% 0.92% -0.13% T9 4.56
25 CAN Corey Conners 70 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 1.41% 0.99% 2.08% 1.09% T45 4.3
26 USA JT Poston 80 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.87% 2.1% 1.23% T37 3.77
27 USA Brian Harman 80 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.87% 1.19% 0.32% T49 3.77
28 SCO Russell Knox 80 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.87% 0.84% -0.03% T16 3.77
29 USA Keegan Bradley 80 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.87% 0.65% -0.22% T49
30 USA Billy Horschel 90 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.77% 2.83% 2.06% T9 3.36
31 USA Andrew Putnam 90 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.77% 1.6% 0.83% MC 3.36
32 CAN Adam Hadwin 90 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.77% 1.59% 0.82% T40 3.36
33 USA Tom Hoge 90 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.77% 0.89% 0.12% T25 3.36
34 USA Daniel Berger 90 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.77% 0.78% 0.01% T9 3.36
35 USA Brendan Steele 90 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.77% 0.78% 0% MC 3.36
36 USA Kevin Na 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.7% 2.03% 1.34% MC 3.03
37 USA Chez Reavie 100 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.7% 0.84% 0.14% MC 3.03
38 USA Vaughn Taylor 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.63% 1.76% 1.12% MC 2.75
39 USA Bud Cauley 110 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.63% 0.76% 0.13% T25 2.75
40 USA Max Homa 110 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.63% 0.69% 0.05% T6 (tied w/2) 2.75 +31.6
41 USA Andrew Landry 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 1.21% 0.66% T45 2.43
42 USA Denny McCarthy 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 0.68% 0.12% T59 2.43
43 USA J.B. Holmes 125 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 0.51% -0.05% T16 2.43
44 SCO Martin Laird 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 0.16% -0.4% T55
45 ARG Emiliano Grillo 140 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.71% 0.5% 0.48% -0.01% MC
46 USA Lanto Griffin 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 1.73% 1.27% MC
47 USA Harris English 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 1.03% 0.57% T16
48 USA Joel Dahmen 150 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.68% 0.21% WD
49 USA Charley Hoffman 150 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.63% 0.17% T40
50 SVK Rory Sabbatini 150 (VBet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.47% 0.62% 0.15% MC
51 USA Harry Higgs 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.59% 0.12% T25
52 USA Beau Hossler 150 (VBet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.47% 0.54% 0.07% 66
53 USA Zach Johnson 150 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.34% -0.13% MC
54 USA Scott Piercy 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.33% -0.14% T6
55 USA Aaron Wise 150 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.19% -0.28% MC
56 RSA Dylan Frittelli 175 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.4% 0.83% 0.43% T63
57 KOR Sunghoon Kang 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.4% 0.61% 0.21% T52
58 USA Russell Henley 175 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.4% 0.19% -0.21% MC
59 AUS Matt Jones 200 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.35% 0.78% 0.43% MC
60 USA Cameron Tringale 200 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.35% 0.7% 0.35% MC
61 USA Harold Varner III 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.66% 0.31% MC
62 MEX Carlos Ortiz 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.35% 0.57% 0.22% T25
63 RSA Charl Schwartzel 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.55% 0.2% MC
64 USA Adam Schenk 200 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.54% 0.19% MC
65 USA Brian Stuard 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.52% 0.17% MC
66 USA Chesson Hadley 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.4% 0.05% T59
67 AUT Sepp Straka 200 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.39% 0.04% MC
68 THA Kiradech Aphibarnrat 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.39% 0.04% MC
69 USA Kevin Streelman 200 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.36% 0.01% MC
70 USA Jimmy Walker 200 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.31% -0.04% T63
71 USA Kyle Stanley 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.21% -0.14% MC
72 USA Grayson Murray 225 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.44% 0.31% 0.33% 0.02% T55
73 USA Patrick Rodgers 225 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.44% 0.31% 0.23% -0.09% T16
74 USA Kevin Tway 250 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.69% 0.41% T37
75 NZL Danny Lee 250 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.58% 0.3% T25
76 USA Nate Lashley 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.52% 0.24% T3
77 USA Adam Long 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.49% 0.21% 8
78 CAN Nick Taylor 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.4% 0.12% T49
79 USA Sam Burns 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.28% 0.39% 0.11% MC
80 USA Talor Gooch 250 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.37% 0.09% T61
81 USA Sam Ryder 250 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.37% 0.09% T55
82 DEN Sebastian Cappelen 250 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.34% 0.06% MC
83 USA Luke List 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.23% -0.05% T25
84 KOR Siwoo Kim 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.76% 0.53% MC
85 USA Tyler Duncan 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.55% 0.32% MC
86 USA Brian Gay 300 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.46% 0.22% MC
87 USA Doc Redman 300 (VBet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.23% 0.45% 0.22% T34
88 USA Ryan Armour 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.4% 0.17% MC
89 USA Brice Garnett 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.23% 0.36% 0.13% T52
90 AUS Aaron Baddeley 300 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.31% 0.08% T40
91 USA Austin Cook 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.31% 0.07% MC
92 USA John Huh 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.24% 0.01% T40
93 USA Kevin Chappell 300 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.18% -0.06% MC
94 USA J.J Spaun 300 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.14% -0.09% T47
95 CHN Zhang Xinjun 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.2% 0.52% 0.32% T25
96 USA Troy Merritt 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.2% 0.41% 0.21% MC
97 USA Wyndham Clark 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.2% 0.36% 0.16% T34
98 TPE C.T. Pan 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.2% 0.32% 0.12% T63
99 USA Chris Kirk 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.2% 0.25% 0.05% MC
100 USA Mark Hubbard 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.18% 0.55% 0.37% T9
101 USA Keith Mitchell 400 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.41% 0.23% T16
102 USA Patton Kizzire 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.34% 0.16% T61
103 USA Zack Sucher 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.3% 0.12% MC
104 USA Jamie Lovemark 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.25% 0.07% MC
105 USA Chris Stroud 400 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.24% 0.06% MC
106 DEN Lucas Bjerregaard 400 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.19% 0.01% MC
107 USA Trey Mullinax 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.12% -0.06% MC
108 AUS Greg Chalmers 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.6% 0.46% MC
109 KOR Kyounghoon Lee 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.55% 0.41% MC
110 USA Ted Potter-jr 500 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.47% 0.32% MC
111 USA Scott Harrington 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.14% 0.36% 0.22% MC
112 USA Peter Malnati 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.29% 0.15% MC
113 CAN Roger Sloan 500 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.14% 0.25% 0.11% MC
114 USA Matt Every 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.14% 0.24% 0.1% MC
115 USA James Hahn 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.17% 0.03% T25
116 ENG Luke Donald 500 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.14% 0% MC
117 USA Hudson Swafford 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.12% -0.02% T9
118 JPN Satoshi Kodaira 600 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.12% 0.44% 0.33% MC
119 KOR K.J. Choi 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.12% 0.43% 0.31% T55
120 USA Brandon Hagy 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.12% 0.13% 0.01% T16
121 KOR Seungyul Noh 600 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.12% 0.12% 0.01% MC
122 USA Mackenzie Hughes 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.09% 0.27% 0.17% MC
123 USA Bo Van Pelt 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.11% 0.04% MC
124 USA Kevin Stadler 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.11% 0.04% MC
125 USA Colt Knost 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.07% 0.11% 0.04% MC
126 USA Martin Trainer 1500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.05% 0.24% 0.19% MC
127 USA Kyle Westmoreland 1500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.05% 0.11% 0.06% MC
128 USA Marty Jertson 1500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.05% 0.11% 0.06% MC
129 COL Sebastian Munoz 0% 0% 0% 0% T47
130 USA Robby Shelton 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
131 USA Patrick Flavin 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
132 USA Alex Smalley 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 37.9 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 13.7 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Skybet 8 @ 1/5 57.1% 22%
2 Betfair Sportsbook 8 @ 1/5 60.5% 24.7%
3 Paddy Power 8 @ 1/5 62.1% 25.9%
4 Sportingbet 6 @ 1/4 59.9% 28.9%
5 Betway 7 @ 1/5 56.2% 31%
6 Betfred 7 @ 1/5 56.5% 31.3%
7 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 48.7% 32.8%
8 Boyle Sports 8 @ 1/5 71.3% 33%
9 VBet 5 @ 1/4 52.7% 36.4%
10 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 51.5% 38.3%
11 Ladbrokes 5 @ 1/4 56.6% 39.8%
12 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 53.3% 39.9%
13 Redzone 5 @ 1/4 57.5% 40.6%
14 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 57.5% 40.6%
15 MoPlay 5 @ 1/4 57.5% 40.6%
16 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 57.5% 40.6%
17 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 54.7% 41.2%
18 Coral 7 @ 1/5 69.7% 42.6%
19 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 56.8% 43.1%
20 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 58.7% 44.9%