Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 32.1 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 15.2 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.1 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 73.9

Total Profit: -26.2



# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 ENG Justin Rose 8 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 11.11% 8.4% 3.54% -4.86% T21
2 USA Patrick Reed 11 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) 8.33% 6.3% 5.93% -0.37% T10
3 IRL Shane Lowry 16 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 5.88% 4.45% 4.69% 0.24% T62
4 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 16 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 5.88% 4.45% 2.8% -1.65% 1
5 ENG Matt Wallace 20 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 4.76% 3.6% 4.32% 0.72% T50
6 AUT Bernd Wiesberger 22 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 4.35% 3.29% 5.44% 2.15% 49 14.89
7 ITA Francesco Molinari 22 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.29% 1.89% -1.4% T44
8 ENG Danny Willett 28 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 3.45% 2.61% 3.35% 0.74% T38 11.81
9 SCO Robert MacIntyre 28 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 3.45% 2.61% 2.43% -0.18% T7
10 AUT Matthias Schwab 28 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 3.45% 2.61% 2.26% -0.34% T2
11 CHN Li Haotong 28 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 3.45% 2.61% 0.99% -1.62% T46
12 RSA Erik van Rooyen 30 (Marathon Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 3.23% 2.44% 3.36% 0.92% T2 (tied w/5) 11.05 +37.6
13 BEL Thomas Pieters 33 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.22% 2.06% -0.16% T17
14 SWE Alexander Noren 33 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.22% 1.59% -0.63% T28
15 RSA Christiaan Bezuidenhout 40 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.84% 2.47% 0.63% T56 8.35
16 ENG Paul Waring 40 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.84% 1.92% 0.08% 16
17 FRA Victor Perez 40 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.84% 1.09% -0.75% T2
18 RSA George Coetzee 40 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.84% 0.97% -0.88% 66
19 ENG Eddie Pepperell 40 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.84% 0.91% -0.93% DQ
20 NED Joost Luiten 45 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.17% 1.64% 1.9% 0.25% T25 7.45
21 THA Kiradech Aphibarnrat 45 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.17% 1.64% 1.27% -0.37% T56
22 ITA Andrea Pavan 50 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.48% 2.58% 1.1% T28 6.72
23 ESP Adria Arnaus 50 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.48% 1.81% 0.33% 65 6.72
24 USA Kurt Kitayama 50 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.48% 1.81% 0.32% T2 (tied w/5) 6.72 +36.3
25 GER Martin Kaymer 50 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.48% 1.27% -0.21% T38
26 ENG Jordan L Smith 55 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.35% 0.95% -0.4% T46
27 ENG Tom Lewis 55 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.35% 0.78% -0.57% T32
28 SWE Marcus Kinhult 60 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.24% 2.13% 0.89% T17 5.62
29 BEL Thomas Detry 60 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.24% 1.04% -0.2% T32
30 ENG Chris Paisley 66 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.13% 0.94% -0.19% T62
31 DEN Lucas Bjerregaard 66 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.13% 0.58% -0.55% 72
32 ENG Sam Horsfield 80 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.93% 1.25% 0.31% T53 4.23
33 SWE Joakim Lagergren 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.93% 1.11% 0.18% T53 4.23
34 DEN Joachim B Hansen 80 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.93% 0.95% 0.02% T10
35 SCO Richie Ramsay 80 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.93% 0.81% -0.12% T32
36 BEL Nicolas Colsaerts 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.93% 0.81% -0.12% T38
37 IND Shubhankar Sharma 80 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.93% 0.67% -0.26% T7
38 ENG Lee Westwood 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.93% 0.66% -0.27% T10
39 FRA Romain Langasque 90 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.83% 1.38% 0.55% 9 3.77
40 ITA Guido Migliozzi 90 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.83% 0.82% -0.01% T10
41 NZL Ryan Fox 90 (Betfred: 6 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.83% 0.58% -0.25% T21
42 ENG Ross Fisher 100 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.75% 0.86% 0.11% T10
43 ENG Matthew Southgate 100 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.75% 0.73% -0.01% T21
44 ESP Pablo Larrazabal 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.68% 0.85% 0.16% 69 3.09
45 RSA Justin Harding 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.68% 0.57% -0.11% T25
46 TPE C.T. Pan 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.6% 0.86% 0.26% T56 2.72
47 AUS Jason Scrivener 125 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% 0.78% 0.18% T21 2.72
48 MAS Gavin Green 125 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.6% 0.71% 0.11% T50
49 ENG Aaron Rai 125 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.6% 0.4% -0.2% T44
50 FRA Benjamin Hebert 140 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.71% 0.54% 1.39% 0.85% T2
51 ENG Steven Brown 150 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.5% 1.27% 0.77% T70
52 AUS Wade Ormsby 150 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.5% 1.15% 0.64% T38
53 FIN Kalle Samooja 150 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% 0.8% 0.3% T17
54 RSA Justin Walters 150 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.5% 0.78% 0.28% T67
55 ESP Jorge Campillo 150 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.5% 0.55% 0.05% T28
56 SWE Sebastian Soderberg 175 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.43% 1.3% 0.87% T53
57 IRL Padraig Harrington 175 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.43% 0.61% 0.18% T62
58 RSA Richard Sterne 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.43% 0.58% 0.15% T50
59 JPN Masahiro Kawamura 175 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.43% 0.51% 0.08% T46
60 ITA Edoardo Molinari 200 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.38% 0.96% 0.58% T38
61 ITA Nino Bertasio 200 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.38% 0.86% 0.48% T28
62 PAR Fabrizio Zanotti 200 (Betfred: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.81% 0.43% T38
63 SCO Scott Jamieson 200 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.45% 0.08% T10
64 USA David Lipsky 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.38% 0.41% 0.04% T32
65 RSA Zander Lombard 250 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.3% 0.81% 0.51% T17
66 ESP Alvaro Quiros 250 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.56% 0.25% T56
67 AUS Scott Hend 250 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.3% 0.39% 0.09% T36
68 ESP Nacho Elvira 250 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.3% 0.38% 0.08% T67
69 USA Sean Crocker 250 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.25% -0.05% T25
70 ENG Oliver Wilson 350 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.22% 0.5% 0.28% T56
71 JPN Hideto Tanihara 400 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.19% 0.42% 0.23% T70
72 SCO David Drysdale 400 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.22% 0.03% 73
73 TUR Taner Yamac 3000 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.03% 0.03% 0.19% 0.16% 74
74 ESP Adrian Otaegui 0% 0% 0% 0% T56
75 ITA Renato Paratore 0% 0% 0% 0% T36

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 32.1 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 15.2 %

Key


Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Betfair Sportsbook 7 @ 1/5 50% 25.8%
2 Boyle Sports 7 @ 1/5 52.5% 27.9%
3 Paddy Power 7 @ 1/5 52.5% 27.9%
4 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 43.6% 28.2%
5 Skybet 5 @ 1/4 45% 29.5%
6 William Hill 5 @ 1/4 46.2% 30.5%
7 Bet Victor 5 @ 1/4 48.5% 32.6%
8 Sportingbet 5 @ 1/4 50% 33.9%
9 Ladbrokes 5 @ 1/4 50.1% 33.9%
10 Coral 5 @ 1/4 50.1% 33.9%
11 SportPesa 5 @ 1/4 50.2% 34.1%
12 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 50.2% 34.1%
13 MoPlay 5 @ 1/4 50.2% 34.1%
14 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 50.2% 34.1%
15 Betfred 6 @ 1/5 47.5% 34.6%
16 Unibet 5 @ 1/4 51.5% 35.4%
17 Betway 6 @ 1/5 51.1% 37.9%