Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 27.1 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 4.9 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.1 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 292.6

Total Profit: +192.5

ITALIAN OPEN

10/10/2019 - 13/10/2019

Up to date as of: 4 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 ENG Paul Casey 10 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 9.09% 7.03% 4.08% -2.95% MC
2 ENG Justin Rose 12 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 7.69% 5.95% 4.16% -1.79% T15
3 ITA Francesco Molinari 14 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 6.67% 5.15% 1.17% -3.98% MC
4 IRL Shane Lowry 18 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 5.26% 4.07% 3.91% -0.16% MC
5 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 25 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.97% 3.39% 0.42% 2 13.49 +40.5
6 ENG Danny Willett 25 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.97% 3.24% 0.26% T18 13.49
7 ENG Matt Wallace 25 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.97% 2.76% -0.22% T7
8 ITA Andrea Pavan 30 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.49% 2.01% -0.48% T10
9 RSA Erik van Rooyen 33 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.27% 4.16% 1.88% T10 10.32
10 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 33 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.27% 1.6% -0.67% T18
11 AUT Bernd Wiesberger 35 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.15% 3.89% 1.75% 1 9.74 +214.3
12 BEL Thomas Pieters 35 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.15% 2.22% 0.07% 68 9.74
13 SWE Alexander Noren 35 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.15% 1.07% -1.08% T34
14 CHN Li Haotong 40 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.89% 1.16% -0.73% MC
15 ENG Ian Poulter 40 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.89% 1.01% -0.88% MC
16 SCO Robert MacIntyre 50 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.52% 1.76% 0.24% T4 (tied w/3) 6.88 +37.8
17 ESP Adria Arnaus 50 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.52% 1.5% -0.02% T48
18 AUT Matthias Schwab 50 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.52% 1.2% -0.31% T4
19 NED Joost Luiten 50 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.52% 0.92% -0.59% T25
20 ENG Jordan L Smith 50 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.52% 0.9% -0.61% 24
21 SVK Rory Sabbatini 66 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.15% 2.95% 1.8% T10 5.24
22 ENG Eddie Pepperell 66 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.15% 1.2% 0.05% T48 5.24
23 GER Martin Kaymer 66 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.15% 1.1% -0.05% MC
24 BEL Thomas Detry 66 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.15% 1.08% -0.08% MC
25 RSA Justin Harding 66 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.15% 0.77% -0.38% T57
26 FRA Victor Perez 66 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.15% 0.67% -0.49% T57
27 SWE Joakim Lagergren 70 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.09% 0.7% -0.39% T60
28 ENG Lee Westwood 70 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.09% 0.69% -0.4% T60
29 ENG Paul Waring 75 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.32% 1.02% 1.35% 0.34% T25 4.62
30 ENG Andrew Johnston 80 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.95% 0.93% -0.03% T4
31 FIN Mikko Korhonen 80 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.95% 0.9% -0.06% T25
32 ITA Guido Migliozzi 80 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.95% 0.85% -0.11% T48
33 ENG Ross Fisher 80 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.95% 0.67% -0.29% T25
34 ENG Sam Horsfield 80 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.95% 0.51% -0.44% T34
35 SWE Marcus Kinhult 90 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.85% 1.41% 0.56% T18 3.86
36 NIR Graeme McDowell 90 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.85% 0.61% -0.24% T15
37 ENG Matthew Southgate 90 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.85% 0.51% -0.34% MC
38 SCO Richie Ramsay 100 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.77% 0.62% -0.14% MC
39 SWE Alexander Bjork 100 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.77% 0.49% -0.27% MC
40 THA Kiradech Aphibarnrat 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.7% 0.98% 0.28% MC 3.16
41 DEN Jeff Winther 110 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.7% 0.85% 0.15% MC 3.16
42 FRA Benjamin Hebert 125 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.61% 1.31% 0.7% MC 2.79
43 FRA Romain Langasque 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.61% 1.17% 0.56% MC 2.79
44 MAS Gavin Green 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.61% 1% 0.39% MC 2.79
45 ENG Andy Sullivan 125 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.61% 0.67% 0.06% MC 2.79
46 ITA Edoardo Molinari 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.61% 0.64% 0.03% T40
47 ENG Aaron Rai 125 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.61% 0.62% 0.01% T18
48 AUS Jason Scrivener 125 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.61% 0.54% -0.07% T55
49 FRA Alexander Levy 125 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.61% 0.44% -0.18% T48
50 AUS Lucas Herbert 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.61% 0.43% -0.18% T34
51 SWE Sebastian Soderberg 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.51% 1.23% 0.72% T25
52 IRL Padraig Harrington 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.51% 0.9% 0.39% MC
53 USA Julian Suri 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.51% 0.66% 0.15% T18
54 SCO Scott Jamieson 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.51% 0.63% 0.12% MC
55 RSA Richard Sterne 150 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.51% 0.61% 0.1% T15
56 ENG Lee Slattery 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.51% 0.47% -0.05% MC
57 PAR Fabrizio Zanotti 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.51% 0.39% -0.13% MC
58 ENG Luke Donald 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.51% 0.33% -0.18% MC
59 ESP Jorge Campillo 175 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.44% 0.88% 0.44% MC
60 ITA Renato Paratore 175 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.44% 0.67% 0.23% T48
61 USA Kurt Kitayama 175 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.44% 0.61% 0.17% 3
62 ESP Pablo Larrazabal 175 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.44% 0.61% 0.17% MC
63 ENG Ashley Chesters 175 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.44% 0.58% 0.14% T66
64 USA David Lipsky 175 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.44% 0.52% 0.08% 69
65 RSA George Coetzee 175 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.44% 0.43% -0.01% T48
66 BEL Nicolas Colsaerts 175 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.44% 0.38% -0.06% T64
67 NZL Ryan Fox 175 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.44% 0.38% -0.06% T18
68 AUS Wade Ormsby 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.76% 0.38% T40
69 IND Shubhankar Sharma 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.74% 0.36% T7
70 ITA Nino Bertasio 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.59% 0.21% T34
71 ENG Chris Paisley 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.57% 0.19% T40
72 CHN Wu Ashun 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.47% 0.08% T66
73 RSA Dean Burmester 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.45% 0.07% T40
74 ESP Nacho Elvira 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.28% -0.11% T64
75 FIN Tapio Pulkkanen 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.31% 0.74% 0.43% T40
76 ARG Andres Romero 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.31% 0.63% 0.32% MC
77 DEN Soren Kjeldsen 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.31% 0.62% 0.31% T25
78 ENG Robert Rock 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.31% 0.5% 0.19% MC
79 ENG Jack Singh Brar 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.31% 0.5% 0.19% MC
80 FIN Kalle Samooja 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.31% 0.49% 0.18% T40
81 ESP Alvaro Quiros 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.31% 0.44% 0.13% MC
82 ESP Adrian Otaegui 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.31% 0.4% 0.09% T60
83 ITA Lorenzo Gagli 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.31% 0.35% 0.04% MC
84 ENG Chris Wood 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.31% 0.28% -0.03% MC
85 GER Maximilian Kieffer 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.31% 0.23% -0.08% MC
86 RSA Thomas Aiken 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.31% 0.23% -0.08% MC
87 ESP Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.26% 0.74% 0.48% T48
88 FRA Matthieu Pavon 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.26% 0.73% 0.47% MC
89 ENG Oliver Fisher 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.26% 0.53% 0.27% T55
90 IRL Paul Dunne 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.26% 0.46% 0.2% MC
91 ITA Francesco Laporta 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.26% 0.39% 0.13% T7
92 RSA Brandon Stone 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.26% 0.35% 0.09% MC
93 AUS Scott Hend 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.26% 0.14% -0.12% MC
94 SCO Grant Forrest 350 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.22% 0.57% 0.35% MC
95 JPN Hideto Tanihara 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.22% 0.51% 0.29% MC
96 RSA Darren Fichardt 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.22% 0.3% 0.08% MC
97 IND Gaganjeet Bhullar 400 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.38% 0.19% MC
98 SCO David Drysdale 400 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.36% 0.16% MC
99 SCO Stephen Gallacher 400 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.16% -0.04% T25
100 SCO Liam Johnston 500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.44% 0.28% MC
101 FIN Kim Koivu 500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.35% 0.2% MC
102 SCO David Law 600 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.13% 0.32% 0.19% MC
103 ITA Lorenzo Scalise 1000 (SportPesa: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% 0.38% 0.31% MC
104 ENG David Howell 1000 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.18% 0.11% WD
105 NZL Michael Campbell 1500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.05% 0.16% 0.11% MC
106 ESP Jose M Olazabal 2000 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.05% 0.04% 0.23% 0.19% MC
107 WAL Jamie Donaldson 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
108 DEN Thomas Bjorn 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
109 THA Thongchai Jaidee 0% 0% 0% 0% T34
110 SWE Robert Karlsson 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
111 FRA Romain Wattel 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
112 ITA Matteo Manassero 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
113 ENG David Horsey 0% 0% 0% 0% T34
114 JPN Yusaku Miyazato 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
115 FRA Raphael Jacquelin 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
116 IND S.S.P. Chawrasia 0% 0% 0% 0% T57
117 WAL Bradley Dredge 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
118 FRA Michael Lorenzo-Vera 0% 0% 0% 0% T40
119 ENG James Morrison 0% 0% 0% 0% T60
120 KOR Jeunghun Wang 0% 0% 0% 0% T10
121 RSA Haydn Porteous 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
122 RSA Justin Walters 0% 0% 0% 0% T10
123 POR Ricardo Gouveia 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
124 WAL Stuart Manley 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
125 RSA Jaco Van Zyl 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
126 RSA Trevor Immelman 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
127 ENG Steven Brown 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
128 AUS Sam Brazel 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
129 SWE Jens Dantorp 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
130 FRA Julien Guerrier 0% 0% 0% 0% T40
131 ITA Filippo Bergamaschi 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
132 ENG Richard McEvoy 0% 0% 0% 0% WD
133 RSA Jacques Kruyswijk 0% 0% 0% 0% T25
134 POR Pedro Figueiredo 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
135 ITA Enrico Di Nitto 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
136 ITA Edoardo Raffaele Lipparelli 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 27.1 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 4.9 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Betfair Sportsbook 8 @ 1/5 51.5% 17.4%
2 Skybet 7 @ 1/5 40.2% 17.4%
3 Boyle Sports 8 @ 1/5 54.1% 19.4%
4 Paddy Power 8 @ 1/5 54.7% 19.9%
5 Coral 7 @ 1/5 46.5% 22.7%
6 Betfred 7 @ 1/5 48.1% 24.1%
7 Ladbrokes 5 @ 1/4 39.5% 24.4%
8 Sportingbet 5 @ 1/4 39.6% 24.5%
9 Betway 7 @ 1/5 50.3% 25.9%
10 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 41.8% 26.5%
11 Black Type 5 @ 1/4 44.7% 29.1%
12 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 46.5% 33.6%
13 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 50.1% 36.9%
14 Marathon Bet 5 @ 1/4 53.6% 37%
15 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 52.7% 39.2%
16 SportPesa 5 @ 1/4 57.1% 40.2%
17 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 57.1% 40.2%
18 Bethard 5 @ 1/4 57.1% 40.2%
19 MoPlay 5 @ 1/4 57.1% 40.2%
20 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 57.1% 40.2%