Betting Market Analysis for Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship
Key
Odds: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?
Implied: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.
Normalised: The golfer's actual implied probability. (They sum to 100%).
Discrepancy: THE MONEY MAKER Predicted - Implied. This shows the value in the bet, the higher the better.
Value: The value of the odds and terms on offer. More info.
Forecast Table
Up to date as of: 3 years ago
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| # | Player | Bookies' Odds | Implied Impl. | Normalised Norm. | Predicted Pred. | Discrepancy Discrep. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 8/1 | 5.92% | -5.25% | |
| 2 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 8/1 | 3.25% | -7.92% | |
| 3 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 18/1 | 3.4% | -1.76% | |
| 4 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 21/1 | 2.28% | -2.19% | |
| 5 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 21/1 | 1.68% | -2.79% | |
| 6 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 38/1 | 1.28% | -1.3% | |
| 7 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 45/1 | 2.16% | 0% | |
| 8 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 45/1 | 1.91% | -0.25% | |
| 9 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 45/1 | 1.56% | -0.61% | |
| 10 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 50/1 | 2.28% | 0.31% | |
| 11 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 50/1 | 2.13% | 0.16% | |
| 12 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 50/1 | 1.63% | -0.34% | |
| 13 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 50/1 | 1.14% | -0.84% | |
| 14 |
| Victor Perez | 35 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 2.78% | 1.86% ≈ 53/1 | 1.58% | -0.28% | |
| 15 |
| Ian Poulter | 40 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) | 2.44% | 1.64% ≈ 60/1 | 2.06% | 0.42% | |
| 16 |
| Bernd Wiesberger | 40 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 2.44% | 1.64% ≈ 60/1 | 1.35% | -0.28% | |
| 17 |
| Thomas Pieters | 40 (888sport: 8 @ 1/5) | 2.44% | 1.64% ≈ 60/1 | 0.8% | -0.83% | |
| 18 |
| Sami Valimaki | 55 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 1.79% | 1.2% ≈ 83/1 | 2.42% | 1.22% | |
| 19 |
| Tom Lewis | 66 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.49% | 1% ≈ 99/1 | 1.08% | 0.07% | |
| 20 |
| Thomas Detry | 66 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 1.49% | 1% ≈ 99/1 | 0.97% | -0.03% | |
| 21 |
| Joost Luiten | 66 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) | 1.49% | 1% ≈ 99/1 | 0.96% | -0.04% | |
| 22 |
| Henrik Stenson | 66 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 1.49% | 1% ≈ 99/1 | 0.72% | -0.28% | |
| 23 |
| Matthias Schwab | 66 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 1.49% | 1% ≈ 99/1 | 0.67% | -0.34% | |
| 24 |
| Wilco Nienaber | 80 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.23% | 0.83% ≈ 120/1 | 1.32% | 0.49% | |
| 25 |
| Laurie Canter | 80 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.23% | 0.83% ≈ 120/1 | 1.11% | 0.28% | |
| 26 |
| Adria Arnaus | 80 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.23% | 0.83% ≈ 120/1 | 1.05% | 0.22% | |
| 27 |
| Rafael Cabrera Bello | 80 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 1.23% | 0.83% ≈ 120/1 | 0.44% | -0.39% | |
| 28 |
| Danny Willett | 80 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.23% | 0.83% ≈ 120/1 | 0.4% | -0.42% | |
| 29 |
| Antoine Rozner | 90 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.1% | 0.74% ≈ 135/1 | 1.23% | 0.49% | |
| 30 |
| Lucas Herbert | 90 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 1.1% | 0.74% ≈ 135/1 | 0.86% | 0.12% | |
| 31 |
| Dean Burmester | 90 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 1.1% | 0.74% ≈ 135/1 | 0.75% | 0.01% | |
| 32 |
| Ross Fisher | 90 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.1% | 0.74% ≈ 135/1 | 0.47% | -0.27% | |
| 33 |
| Romain Langasque | 100 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.66% ≈ 150/1 | 0.85% | 0.18% | |
| 34 |
| Jordan L Smith | 100 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.66% ≈ 150/1 | 0.64% | -0.03% | |
| 35 |
| Adrian Otaegui | 110 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.9% | 0.6% ≈ 165/1 | 0.94% | 0.34% | |
| 36 |
| Sean Crocker | 110 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.9% | 0.6% ≈ 165/1 | 0.65% | 0.04% | |
| 37 |
| Aaron Rai | 125 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.53% ≈ 187/1 | 2.21% | 1.67% | |
| 38 |
| Jamie Donaldson | 125 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.53% ≈ 187/1 | 0.8% | 0.27% | |
| 39 |
| Renato Paratore | 125 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.53% ≈ 187/1 | 0.64% | 0.11% | |
| 40 |
| Marcus Armitage | 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.44% ≈ 224/1 | 1.26% | 0.81% | |
| 41 |
| Brandon Stone | 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.44% ≈ 224/1 | 1.16% | 0.72% | |
| 42 |
| Victor Dubuisson | 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.44% ≈ 224/1 | 1.1% | 0.65% | |
| 43 |
| Masahiro Kawamura | 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.44% ≈ 224/1 | 1.04% | 0.6% | |
| 44 |
| Garrick Higgo | 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.44% ≈ 224/1 | 0.95% | 0.51% | |
| 45 |
| Justin Harding | 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.44% ≈ 224/1 | 0.94% | 0.49% | |
| 46 |
| Callum Shinkwin | 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.44% ≈ 224/1 | 0.83% | 0.39% | |
| 47 |
| Padraig Harrington | 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.44% ≈ 224/1 | 0.82% | 0.38% | |
| 48 |
| Joakim Lagergren | 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.44% ≈ 224/1 | 0.82% | 0.37% | |
| 49 |
| Ryan Fox | 150 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.66% | 0.44% ≈ 224/1 | 0.74% | 0.3% | |
| 50 |
| Calum Hill | 150 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.44% ≈ 224/1 | 0.71% | 0.26% | |
| 51 |
| Scott Jamieson | 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.44% ≈ 224/1 | 0.57% | 0.12% | |
| 52 |
| Pablo Larrazabal | 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.44% ≈ 224/1 | 0.52% | 0.07% | |
| 53 |
| Paul Waring | 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.44% ≈ 224/1 | 0.51% | 0.07% | |
| 54 |
| Kurt Kitayama | 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.44% ≈ 224/1 | 0.4% | -0.05% | |
| 55 |
| David Lipsky | 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.44% ≈ 224/1 | 0.15% | -0.3% | |
| 56 |
| George Coetzee | 160 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.62% | 0.42% ≈ 239/1 | 1.22% | 0.8% | |
| 57 |
| Jason Scrivener | 175 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.57% | 0.38% ≈ 261/1 | 0.6% | 0.22% | |
| 58 |
| Mikko Korhonen | 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.57% | 0.38% ≈ 261/1 | 0.4% | 0.02% | |
| 59 |
| Kalle Samooja | 200 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.33% ≈ 299/1 | 1.07% | 0.73% | |
| 60 |
| Marcus Kinhult | 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.5% | 0.33% ≈ 299/1 | 0.73% | 0.4% | |
| 61 |
| Jorge Campillo | 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.33% ≈ 299/1 | 0.71% | 0.38% | |
| 62 |
| Jazz Janewattananond | 200 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.33% ≈ 299/1 | 0.64% | 0.31% | |
| 63 |
| Alexander Levy | 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.33% ≈ 299/1 | 0.64% | 0.31% | |
| 64 |
| Robert Rock | 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.33% ≈ 299/1 | 0.6% | 0.27% | |
| 65 |
| David Horsey | 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.33% ≈ 299/1 | 0.59% | 0.25% | |
| 66 |
| Fabrizio Zanotti | 200 (888sport: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.33% ≈ 299/1 | 0.58% | 0.25% | |
| 67 |
| Nicolas Colsaerts | 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.33% ≈ 299/1 | 0.57% | 0.23% | |
| 68 |
| Eddie Pepperell | 200 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.33% ≈ 299/1 | 0.53% | 0.2% | |
| 69 |
| James Morrison | 200 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.33% ≈ 299/1 | 0.53% | 0.19% | |
| 70 |
| Francesco Laporta | 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.33% ≈ 299/1 | 0.48% | 0.14% | |
| 71 |
| Gavin Green | 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.33% ≈ 299/1 | 0.47% | 0.14% | |
| 72 |
| Alexander Bjork | 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.33% ≈ 299/1 | 0.46% | 0.13% | |
| 73 |
| Minwoo Lee | 200 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.33% ≈ 299/1 | 0.4% | 0.07% | |
| 74 |
| Guido Migliozzi | 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.5% | 0.33% ≈ 299/1 | 0.36% | 0.03% | |
| 75 |
| Kiradech Aphibarnrat | 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.33% ≈ 299/1 | 0.33% | -0.01% | |
| 76 |
| Richard Sterne | 200 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.33% ≈ 299/1 | 0.15% | -0.18% | |
| 77 |
| Steven Brown | 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.27% ≈ 373/1 | 0.85% | 0.58% | |
| 78 |
| Chris Paisley | 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.27% ≈ 373/1 | 0.84% | 0.57% | |
| 79 |
| Marc Warren | 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.27% ≈ 373/1 | 0.74% | 0.48% | |
| 80 |
| John Catlin | 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.27% ≈ 373/1 | 0.72% | 0.45% | |
| 81 |
| Sebastian Soderberg | 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.27% ≈ 373/1 | 0.57% | 0.31% | |
| 82 |
| Matthew Southgate | 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.27% ≈ 373/1 | 0.48% | 0.22% | |
| 83 |
| Graeme McDowell | 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.27% ≈ 373/1 | 0.48% | 0.21% | |
| 84 |
| Benjamin Hebert | 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.27% ≈ 373/1 | 0.44% | 0.17% | |
| 85 |
| Julian Suri | 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.27% ≈ 373/1 | 0.34% | 0.08% | |
| 86 |
| Richie Ramsay | 250 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.27% ≈ 373/1 | 0.29% | 0.03% | |
| 87 |
| Justin Walters | 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.33% | 0.22% ≈ 448/1 | 0.49% | 0.27% | |
| 88 |
| Shubhankar Sharma | 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.33% | 0.22% ≈ 448/1 | 0.43% | 0.2% | |
| 89 |
| Wade Ormsby | 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.33% | 0.22% ≈ 448/1 | 0.42% | 0.2% | |
| 90 |
| Nacho Elvira | 300 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) | 0.33% | 0.22% ≈ 448/1 | 0.35% | 0.13% | |
| 91 |
| Zander Lombard | 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.33% | 0.22% ≈ 448/1 | 0.26% | 0.04% | |
| 92 |
| Julien Guerrier | 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.28% | 0.19% ≈ 522/1 | 0.58% | 0.39% | |
| 93 |
| Grant Forrest | 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.28% | 0.19% ≈ 522/1 | 0.54% | 0.35% | |
| 94 |
| Maximilian Kieffer | 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.28% | 0.19% ≈ 522/1 | 0.43% | 0.24% | |
| 95 |
| Soren Kjeldsen | 350 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.28% | 0.19% ≈ 522/1 | 0.15% | -0.05% | |
| 96 |
| Ashley Chesters | 400 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.25% | 0.17% ≈ 597/1 | 0.2% | 0.03% | |
| 97 |
| Matthieu Pavon | 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.13% ≈ 746/1 | 0.63% | 0.49% | |
| 98 |
| David Drysdale | 500 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.13% ≈ 746/1 | 0.62% | 0.48% | |
| 99 |
| Jeff Winther | 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.13% ≈ 746/1 | 0.49% | 0.36% | |
| 100 |
| Scott Hend | 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.13% ≈ 746/1 | 0.38% | 0.25% | |
| 101 |
| Joel Stalter | 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.13% ≈ 746/1 | 0.38% | 0.25% | |
| 102 |
| Ross McGowan | 500 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.13% ≈ 746/1 | 0.37% | 0.24% | |
| 103 |
| Wu Ashun | 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.13% ≈ 746/1 | 0.37% | 0.23% | |
| 104 |
| Richard McEvoy | 500 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.13% ≈ 746/1 | 0.34% | 0.21% | |
| 105 |
| Oliver Fisher | 500 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.13% ≈ 746/1 | 0.33% | 0.2% | |
| 106 |
| Oliver Wilson | 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.13% ≈ 746/1 | 0.31% | 0.18% | |
| 107 |
| Lucas Bjerregaard | 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.13% ≈ 746/1 | 0.29% | 0.16% | |
| 108 |
| Edoardo Molinari | 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.13% ≈ 746/1 | 0.27% | 0.14% | |
| 109 |
| Alvaro Quiros | 500 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.13% ≈ 746/1 | 0.27% | 0.14% | |
| 110 |
| Haydn Porteous | 500 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.13% ≈ 746/1 | 0.26% | 0.12% | |
| 111 |
| Tapio Pulkkanen | 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.13% ≈ 746/1 | 0.25% | 0.11% | |
| 112 |
| Lorenzo Gagli | 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.13% ≈ 746/1 | 0.22% | 0.09% | |
| 113 |
| David Law | 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.13% ≈ 746/1 | 0.21% | 0.08% | |
| 114 |
| Stephen Gallacher | 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.13% ≈ 746/1 | 0.2% | 0.06% | |
| 115 |
| Thomas Aiken | 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.13% ≈ 746/1 | 0.19% | 0.06% | |
| 116 |
| Nino Bertasio | 500 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.13% ≈ 746/1 | 0.15% | 0.01% | |
| 117 |
| Robert Karlsson | 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.13% ≈ 746/1 | 0.15% | 0.01% | |
| 118 |
| Gaganjeet Bhullar | 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.13% ≈ 746/1 | 0.14% | 0.01% | |
| 119 |
| Chris Wood | 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.13% ≈ 746/1 | 0.13% | 0% | |
| 120 |
| Andrea Pavan | 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.1% | 0.07% ≈ 1492/1 | 0.27% | 0.2% | |
| 121 |
| Thomas Bjorn | 1000 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.1% | 0.07% ≈ 1492/1 | 0.17% | 0.1% | |
| 122 |
| Kristoffer Broberg | 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.1% | 0.07% ≈ 1492/1 | 0.15% | 0.08% | |
| 123 |
| David Howell | 1500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.07% | 0.04% ≈ 2237/1 | 0.18% | 0.13% | |
| 124 |
| Raphael Jacquelin | 2000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.05% | 0.03% ≈ 2983/1 | 0.23% | 0.2% | |
| 125 |
| Ahmed Skaik | 4000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.02% | 0.02% ≈ 5965/1 | 0.16% | 0.15% | |
| 126 |
| Ahmed Marjane | 4000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.02% | 0.02% ≈ 5965/1 | 0.15% | 0.13% | |
| 127 |
| Li Haotong | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
| 128 |
| Michael Lorenzo-Vera | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
| 129 |
| Richard Bland | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
| 130 |
| Rasmus Hojgaard | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
| 131 |
| Arjun Gupta | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
Bookie Analysis
Overround of best available: 39.2 %
Overround of 'true value' of best available: 13.9 %
Key
Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?
True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.
| # | Bookie | Terms | Overround | True Overround |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boyle Sports | 10 @ 1/5 | 86.4% | 26.5% |
| 2 | Betfair Sportsbook | 8 @ 1/5 | 63.2% | 27.2% |
| 3 | Paddy Power | 8 @ 1/5 | 63.2% | 27.2% |
| 4 | 888Sport | 8 @ 1/5 | 65.8% | 29.1% |
| 5 | Skybet | 7 @ 1/5 | 58.2% | 33% |
| 6 | Bet365 | 5 @ 1/4 | 49.1% | 33.3% |
| 7 | Betfred | 7 @ 1/5 | 61.5% | 35.8% |
| 8 | VBet | 5 @ 1/4 | 57.2% | 40.7% |
| 9 | Betway | 7 @ 1/5 | 68.5% | 41.7% |
| 10 | Unibet | 6 @ 1/5 | 57.2% | 43.7% |
| 11 | Sporting Index | 5 @ 1/4 | 62.1% | 45.2% |
| 12 | Bet Victor | 6 @ 1/5 | 60% | 46.2% |
| 13 | William Hill | 6 @ 1/5 | 60.7% | 46.8% |
| 14 | GentingBet | 6 @ 1/5 | 61% | 47.1% |
| 15 | Redzone | 5 @ 1/4 | 64.9% | 47.5% |
| 16 | SportPesa | 5 @ 1/4 | 64.9% | 47.5% |
| 17 | 10Bet | 5 @ 1/4 | 64.9% | 47.5% |
| 18 | Sport Nation | 5 @ 1/4 | 64.9% | 47.5% |
| 19 | Spreadex | 6 @ 1/5 | 68.6% | 54.2% |