Betting Market Analysis for Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship

Key

Odds: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

Implied: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

Normalised: The golfer's actual implied probability. (They sum to 100%).

Discrepancy: THE MONEY MAKER Predicted - Implied. This shows the value in the bet, the higher the better.

Value: The value of the odds and terms on offer. More info.


Forecast Table

Up to date as of: one month ago | OddsChecker

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep.
1 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 8/1 5.86% -5.27%
2 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 18/1 3.36% -1.77%
3 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 8/1 3.21% -7.91%
4 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 83/1 2.39% 1.2%
5 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 50/1 2.26% 0.29%
6 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 21/1 2.25% -2.2%
7 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 188/1 2.18% 1.65%
8 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 45/1 2.13% -0.02%
9 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 50/1 2.1% 0.14%
10 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 60/1 2.03% 0.41%
11 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 45/1 1.89% -0.26%
12 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 21/1 1.66% -2.79%
13 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 50/1 1.61% -0.35%
14 FRA Victor Perez 35 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 1.85% ≈ 53/1 1.56% -0.29%
15 ENG Justin Rose 30 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.15% ≈ 45/1 1.54% -0.61%
16 AUT Bernd Wiesberger 40 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.63% ≈ 60/1 1.34% -0.29%
17 RSA Wilco Nienaber 80 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.82% ≈ 120/1 1.3% 0.48%
18 GER Martin Kaymer 25 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.57% ≈ 38/1 1.27% -1.3%
19 ENG Marcus Armitage 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.44% ≈ 225/1 1.24% 0.8%
20 FRA Antoine Rozner 90 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.73% ≈ 135/1 1.21% 0.48%
21 RSA George Coetzee 160 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.62% 0.41% ≈ 240/1 1.2% 0.79%
22 RSA Brandon Stone 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.44% ≈ 225/1 1.15% 0.71%
23 DEN Joachim B Hansen 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.44% ≈ 225/1 1.14% 0.69%
24 ENG Lee Westwood 33 (888sport: 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 1.96% ≈ 50/1 1.12% -0.84%
25 ENG Laurie Canter 80 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.82% ≈ 120/1 1.1% 0.27%
26 FRA Victor Dubuisson 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.44% ≈ 225/1 1.09% 0.64%
27 ENG Tom Lewis 66 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1% ≈ 99/1 1.06% 0.07%
28 FIN Kalle Samooja 200 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.33% ≈ 300/1 1.05% 0.72%
29 ESP Adria Arnaus 80 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.82% ≈ 120/1 1.03% 0.21%
30 JPN Masahiro Kawamura 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.44% ≈ 225/1 1.03% 0.59%
31 BEL Thomas Detry 66 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1% ≈ 99/1 0.96% -0.04%
32 NED Joost Luiten 66 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1% ≈ 99/1 0.95% -0.05%
33 RSA Garrick Higgo 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.44% ≈ 225/1 0.94% 0.5%
34 ESP Adrian Otaegui 110 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.6% ≈ 165/1 0.93% 0.33%
35 RSA Justin Harding 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.44% ≈ 225/1 0.93% 0.49%
36 AUS Lucas Herbert 90 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.73% ≈ 135/1 0.85% 0.11%
37 FRA Romain Langasque 100 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.66% ≈ 150/1 0.84% 0.18%
38 ENG Steven Brown 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.27% ≈ 375/1 0.84% 0.57%
39 ENG Chris Paisley 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.27% ≈ 375/1 0.83% 0.56%
40 ENG Callum Shinkwin 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.44% ≈ 225/1 0.82% 0.38%
41 IRL Padraig Harrington 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.44% ≈ 225/1 0.81% 0.37%
42 SWE Joakim Lagergren 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.44% ≈ 225/1 0.81% 0.37%
43 BEL Thomas Pieters 40 (888sport: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.63% ≈ 60/1 0.8% -0.83%
44 WAL Jamie Donaldson 125 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.53% ≈ 188/1 0.79% 0.26%
45 RSA Dean Burmester 90 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.73% ≈ 135/1 0.74% 0.01%
46 NZL Ryan Fox 150 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.44% ≈ 225/1 0.74% 0.29%
47 SCO Marc Warren 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.27% ≈ 375/1 0.73% 0.47%
48 SWE Marcus Kinhult 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.33% ≈ 300/1 0.72% 0.39%
49 USA John Catlin 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.27% ≈ 375/1 0.71% 0.45%
50 SWE Henrik Stenson 66 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1% ≈ 99/1 0.71% -0.29%
51 ESP Jorge Campillo 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.33% ≈ 300/1 0.7% 0.37%
52 SCO Calum Hill 150 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.44% ≈ 225/1 0.7% 0.26%
53 AUT Matthias Schwab 66 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1% ≈ 99/1 0.66% -0.34%
54 USA Sean Crocker 110 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.6% ≈ 165/1 0.64% 0.04%
55 THA Jazz Janewattananond 200 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.33% ≈ 300/1 0.64% 0.3%
56 ITA Renato Paratore 125 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.53% ≈ 188/1 0.63% 0.1%
57 FRA Alexander Levy 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.33% ≈ 300/1 0.63% 0.3%
58 ENG Jordan L Smith 100 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.66% ≈ 150/1 0.63% -0.03%
59 FRA Matthieu Pavon 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.13% ≈ 749/1 0.62% 0.49%
60 SCO David Drysdale 500 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.13% ≈ 749/1 0.61% 0.48%
61 ENG Robert Rock 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.33% ≈ 300/1 0.59% 0.26%
62 AUS Jason Scrivener 175 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.38% ≈ 263/1 0.59% 0.21%
63 ENG David Horsey 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.33% ≈ 300/1 0.58% 0.25%
64 PAR Fabrizio Zanotti 200 (888sport: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.33% ≈ 300/1 0.57% 0.24%
65 FRA Julien Guerrier 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.19% ≈ 525/1 0.57% 0.38%
66 SWE Sebastian Soderberg 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.27% ≈ 375/1 0.57% 0.3%
67 SCO Scott Jamieson 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.44% ≈ 225/1 0.56% 0.12%
68 BEL Nicolas Colsaerts 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.33% ≈ 300/1 0.56% 0.23%
69 SCO Grant Forrest 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.19% ≈ 525/1 0.54% 0.35%
70 ENG Eddie Pepperell 200 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.33% ≈ 300/1 0.53% 0.2%
71 ENG James Morrison 200 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.33% ≈ 300/1 0.52% 0.19%
72 ESP Pablo Larrazabal 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.44% ≈ 225/1 0.51% 0.07%
73 ENG Paul Waring 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.44% ≈ 225/1 0.51% 0.06%
74 DEN Jeff Winther 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.13% ≈ 749/1 0.49% 0.35%
75 RSA Justin Walters 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.22% ≈ 450/1 0.48% 0.26%
76 ENG Matthew Southgate 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.27% ≈ 375/1 0.48% 0.21%
77 NIR Graeme McDowell 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.27% ≈ 375/1 0.48% 0.21%
78 ITA Francesco Laporta 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.33% ≈ 300/1 0.47% 0.14%
79 MAS Gavin Green 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.33% ≈ 300/1 0.47% 0.13%
80 ENG Ross Fisher 90 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.73% ≈ 135/1 0.46% -0.27%
81 SWE Alexander Bjork 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.33% ≈ 300/1 0.45% 0.12%
82 ESP Rafael Cabrera Bello 80 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.82% ≈ 120/1 0.43% -0.39%
83 FRA Benjamin Hebert 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.27% ≈ 375/1 0.43% 0.17%
84 GER Maximilian Kieffer 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.19% ≈ 525/1 0.43% 0.24%
85 IND Shubhankar Sharma 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.22% ≈ 450/1 0.42% 0.2%
86 AUS Wade Ormsby 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.22% ≈ 450/1 0.42% 0.2%
87 ENG Danny Willett 80 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.82% ≈ 120/1 0.4% -0.43%
88 FIN Mikko Korhonen 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.38% ≈ 263/1 0.4% 0.02%
89 AUS Minwoo Lee 200 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.33% ≈ 300/1 0.4% 0.06%
90 USA Kurt Kitayama 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.44% ≈ 225/1 0.39% -0.05%
91 AUS Scott Hend 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.13% ≈ 749/1 0.38% 0.24%
92 FRA Joel Stalter 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.13% ≈ 749/1 0.37% 0.24%
93 ENG Ross McGowan 500 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.13% ≈ 749/1 0.37% 0.23%
94 CHN Wu Ashun 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.13% ≈ 749/1 0.36% 0.23%
95 ITA Guido Migliozzi 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.33% ≈ 300/1 0.36% 0.02%
96 ESP Nacho Elvira 300 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.22% ≈ 450/1 0.35% 0.13%
97 USA Julian Suri 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.27% ≈ 375/1 0.34% 0.07%
98 ENG Richard McEvoy 500 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.13% ≈ 749/1 0.34% 0.2%
99 ENG Oliver Fisher 500 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.13% ≈ 749/1 0.33% 0.19%
100 THA Kiradech Aphibarnrat 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.33% ≈ 300/1 0.32% -0.01%
101 ENG Oliver Wilson 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.13% ≈ 749/1 0.31% 0.18%
102 SCO Richie Ramsay 250 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.27% ≈ 375/1 0.29% 0.02%
103 DEN Lucas Bjerregaard 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.13% ≈ 749/1 0.29% 0.16%
104 ITA Andrea Pavan 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.07% ≈ 1498/1 0.27% 0.2%
105 ITA Edoardo Molinari 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.13% ≈ 749/1 0.27% 0.13%
106 ESP Alvaro Quiros 500 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.13% ≈ 749/1 0.27% 0.13%
107 RSA Zander Lombard 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.22% ≈ 450/1 0.26% 0.04%
108 RSA Haydn Porteous 500 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.13% ≈ 749/1 0.25% 0.12%
109 FIN Tapio Pulkkanen 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.13% ≈ 749/1 0.24% 0.11%
110 FRA Raphael Jacquelin 2000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.03% ≈ 2996/1 0.23% 0.19%
111 ITA Lorenzo Gagli 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.13% ≈ 749/1 0.22% 0.09%
112 SCO David Law 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.13% ≈ 749/1 0.21% 0.08%
113 ENG Ashley Chesters 400 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.17% ≈ 600/1 0.2% 0.03%
114 SCO Stephen Gallacher 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.13% ≈ 749/1 0.2% 0.06%
115 RSA Thomas Aiken 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.13% ≈ 749/1 0.19% 0.06%
116 ENG David Howell 1500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.04% ≈ 2247/1 0.17% 0.13%
117 DEN Thomas Bjorn 1000 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% ≈ 1498/1 0.17% 0.1%
118 UAE Ahmed Skaik 4000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.02% 0.02% ≈ 5992/1 0.16% 0.14%
119 RSA Richard Sterne 200 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.33% ≈ 300/1 0.15% -0.18%
120 ITA Nino Bertasio 500 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.13% ≈ 749/1 0.15% 0.01%
121 MAR Ahmed Marjane 4000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.02% 0.02% ≈ 5992/1 0.15% 0.13%
122 SWE Robert Karlsson 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.13% ≈ 749/1 0.15% 0.01%
123 USA David Lipsky 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.44% ≈ 225/1 0.15% -0.3%
124 DEN Soren Kjeldsen 350 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.19% ≈ 525/1 0.14% -0.05%
125 SWE Kristoffer Broberg 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% ≈ 1498/1 0.14% 0.08%
126 IND Gaganjeet Bhullar 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.13% ≈ 749/1 0.14% 0.01%
127 ENG Chris Wood 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.13% ≈ 749/1 0.13% 0%
128 CHN Li Haotong 0% 0% ≈ 0/1 0% 0%
129 FRA Michael Lorenzo-Vera 0% 0% ≈ 0/1 0% 0%
130 ENG Richard Bland 0% 0% ≈ 0/1 0% 0%
131 DEN Nicolai Hojgaard 0% 0% ≈ 0/1 0% 0%
132 IND Arjun Gupta 0% 0% ≈ 0/1 0% 0%

Bookie Analysis

Overround of best available: 39.9 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 14.4 %

Key


Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Boyle Sports 10 @ 1/5 86.4% 26.5%
2 Betfair Sportsbook 8 @ 1/5 63.2% 27.2%
3 Paddy Power 8 @ 1/5 63.2% 27.2%
4 888Sport 8 @ 1/5 65.8% 29.1%
5 Skybet 7 @ 1/5 58.2% 33%
6 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 49.1% 33.3%
7 Betfred 7 @ 1/5 61.5% 35.8%
8 VBet 5 @ 1/4 57.2% 40.7%
9 Betway 7 @ 1/5 68.5% 41.7%
10 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 57.2% 43.7%
11 Sporting Index 5 @ 1/4 62.1% 45.2%
12 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 60% 46.2%
13 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 60.7% 46.8%
14 GentingBet 6 @ 1/5 61% 47.1%
15 Redzone 5 @ 1/4 64.9% 47.5%
16 SportPesa 5 @ 1/4 64.9% 47.5%
17 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 64.9% 47.5%
18 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 64.9% 47.5%
19 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 68.6% 54.2%