Betting Market Analysis for Mayakoba Golf Classic
Key
Odds: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?
Implied: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.
Normalised: The golfer's actual implied probability. (They sum to 100%).
Discrepancy: THE MONEY MAKER Predicted - Implied. This shows the value in the bet, the higher the better.
Value: The value of the odds and terms on offer. More info.
Forecast Table
Up to date as of: 4 years ago
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| # | Player | Bookies' Odds | Implied Impl. | Normalised Norm. | Predicted Pred. | Discrepancy Discrep. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 8/1 | 4.78% | -5.89% | |
| 2 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 16/1 | 2.25% | -3.5% | |
| 3 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 22/1 | 3.2% | -1.19% | |
| 4 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 24/1 | 3.8% | -0.13% | |
| 5 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 27/1 | 3.11% | -0.44% | |
| 6 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 30/1 | 3.61% | 0.37% | |
| 7 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 30/1 | 2.89% | -0.36% | |
| 8 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 34/1 | 2.69% | -0.18% | |
| 9 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 38/1 | 2.21% | -0.36% | |
| 10 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 41/1 | 1.06% | -1.35% | |
| 11 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 45/1 | 1.43% | -0.77% | |
| 12 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 54/1 | 2.38% | 0.56% | |
| 13 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 54/1 | 2.02% | 0.19% | |
| 14 |
| Carlos Ortiz | 45 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 2.17% | 1.62% ≈ 61/1 | 1.17% | -0.45% | |
| 15 |
| Brendon Todd | 50 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 1.96% | 1.46% ≈ 67/1 | 1.52% | 0.05% | |
| 16 |
| Marc Leishman | 50 (VBet: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.96% | 1.46% ≈ 67/1 | 0.53% | -0.94% | |
| 17 |
| Emiliano Grillo | 55 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) | 1.79% | 1.33% ≈ 74/1 | 0.82% | -0.51% | |
| 18 |
| Adam Long | 60 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 1.64% | 1.22% ≈ 81/1 | 1.91% | 0.69% | |
| 19 |
| Brian Harman | 60 (Bet Victor: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.64% | 1.22% ≈ 81/1 | 1.24% | 0.01% | |
| 20 |
| Alexander Noren | 66 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 1.49% | 1.11% ≈ 89/1 | 1.42% | 0.3% | |
| 21 |
| Charles Howell III | 66 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 1.49% | 1.11% ≈ 89/1 | 1.4% | 0.29% | |
| 22 |
| Patton Kizzire | 66 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 1.49% | 1.11% ≈ 89/1 | 0.82% | -0.3% | |
| 23 |
| Russell Knox | 66 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) | 1.49% | 1.11% ≈ 89/1 | 0.4% | -0.72% | |
| 24 |
| Keegan Bradley | 70 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) | 1.41% | 1.05% ≈ 94/1 | 1.32% | 0.27% | |
| 25 |
| Joel Dahmen | 70 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 1.41% | 1.05% ≈ 94/1 | 1.28% | 0.23% | |
| 26 |
| Kevin Streelman | 70 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 1.41% | 1.05% ≈ 94/1 | 1.03% | -0.02% | |
| 27 |
| Chez Reavie | 70 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) | 1.41% | 1.05% ≈ 94/1 | 0.82% | -0.23% | |
| 28 |
| Harold Varner III | 70 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 1.41% | 1.05% ≈ 94/1 | 0% | -1.05% | |
| 29 |
| Scott Piercy | 80 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 1.23% | 0.92% ≈ 107/1 | 0.83% | -0.1% | |
| 30 |
| Gary Woodland | 80 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.23% | 0.92% ≈ 107/1 | 0.67% | -0.25% | |
| 31 |
| Byeong Hun An | 90 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 1.1% | 0.82% ≈ 121/1 | 0.78% | -0.04% | |
| 32 |
| John Huh | 100 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.74% ≈ 134/1 | 1.23% | 0.49% | |
| 33 |
| Sepp Straka | 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.99% | 0.74% ≈ 134/1 | 1.16% | 0.42% | |
| 34 |
| Denny McCarthy | 100 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.74% ≈ 134/1 | 0.83% | 0.09% | |
| 35 |
| Rory Sabbatini | 100 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.74% ≈ 134/1 | 0.75% | 0.01% | |
| 36 |
| Doug Ghim | 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.74% ≈ 134/1 | 0.69% | -0.05% | |
| 37 |
| Brian Stuard | 110 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.9% | 0.67% ≈ 148/1 | 0.69% | 0.02% | |
| 38 |
| Aaron Wise | 110 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.9% | 0.67% ≈ 148/1 | 0.65% | -0.02% | |
| 39 |
| Chris Kirk | 110 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.9% | 0.67% ≈ 148/1 | 0.54% | -0.14% | |
| 40 |
| Adam Hadwin | 125 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.59% ≈ 168/1 | 0.96% | 0.37% | |
| 41 |
| Charley Hoffman | 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.59% ≈ 168/1 | 0.9% | 0.31% | |
| 42 |
| Austin Cook | 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.59% ≈ 168/1 | 0.89% | 0.3% | |
| 43 |
| Peter Malnati | 125 (VBet: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.79% | 0.59% ≈ 168/1 | 0.78% | 0.19% | |
| 44 |
| Lucas Glover | 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.59% ≈ 168/1 | 0.77% | 0.18% | |
| 45 |
| Kyle Stanley | 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.59% ≈ 168/1 | 0.74% | 0.14% | |
| 46 |
| Maverick McNealy | 125 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.59% ≈ 168/1 | 0.72% | 0.13% | |
| 47 |
| Pat Perez | 125 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.59% ≈ 168/1 | 0.66% | 0.07% | |
| 48 |
| Brice Garnett | 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.59% ≈ 168/1 | 0.52% | -0.08% | |
| 49 |
| Vaughn Taylor | 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.59% ≈ 168/1 | 0.29% | -0.3% | |
| 50 |
| Ollie Schniederjans | 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.49% ≈ 201/1 | 1.35% | 0.86% | |
| 51 |
| Tyler Duncan | 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.49% ≈ 201/1 | 1.29% | 0.79% | |
| 52 |
| Henrik Norlander | 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.49% ≈ 201/1 | 0.98% | 0.48% | |
| 53 |
| Harry Higgs | 150 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.49% ≈ 201/1 | 0.85% | 0.36% | |
| 54 |
| William Gordon | 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.49% ≈ 201/1 | 0.73% | 0.24% | |
| 55 |
| Patrick Rodgers | 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.49% ≈ 201/1 | 0.69% | 0.2% | |
| 56 |
| Graeme McDowell | 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.49% ≈ 201/1 | 0.67% | 0.17% | |
| 57 |
| Camilo Villegas | 150 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.49% ≈ 201/1 | 0.48% | -0.01% | |
| 58 |
| Branden Grace | 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.49% ≈ 201/1 | 0.42% | -0.07% | |
| 59 |
| Chesson Hadley | 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.57% | 0.42% ≈ 235/1 | 0.93% | 0.51% | |
| 60 |
| Rafael Cabrera Bello | 175 (VBet: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.57% | 0.42% ≈ 235/1 | 0.91% | 0.48% | |
| 61 |
| Kristoffer Ventura | 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.57% | 0.42% ≈ 235/1 | 0.7% | 0.27% | |
| 62 |
| Tom Hoge | 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.57% | 0.42% ≈ 235/1 | 0.66% | 0.24% | |
| 63 |
| Luke List | 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.57% | 0.42% ≈ 235/1 | 0.4% | -0.02% | |
| 64 |
| Mark Hubbard | 200 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.37% ≈ 268/1 | 1.22% | 0.85% | |
| 65 |
| Adam Schenk | 200 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.37% ≈ 268/1 | 0.94% | 0.57% | |
| 66 |
| Troy Merritt | 200 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.37% ≈ 268/1 | 0.81% | 0.44% | |
| 67 |
| Brendan Steele | 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.37% ≈ 268/1 | 0.76% | 0.39% | |
| 68 |
| Jhonattan Vegas | 200 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.37% ≈ 268/1 | 0.74% | 0.37% | |
| 69 |
| Zhang Xinjun | 200 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.37% ≈ 268/1 | 0.63% | 0.26% | |
| 70 |
| Max Homa | 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.37% ≈ 268/1 | 0.59% | 0.22% | |
| 71 |
| Andy Ogletree | 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.37% ≈ 268/1 | 0.39% | 0.02% | |
| 72 |
| Andrew Putnam | 200 (VBet: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.5% | 0.37% ≈ 268/1 | 0.25% | -0.12% | |
| 73 |
| Wesley Bryan | 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.3% ≈ 335/1 | 0.78% | 0.49% | |
| 74 |
| Ryan Armour | 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.3% ≈ 335/1 | 0.61% | 0.31% | |
| 75 |
| Nate Lashley | 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.3% ≈ 335/1 | 0.59% | 0.29% | |
| 76 |
| Robby Shelton | 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.3% ≈ 335/1 | 0.56% | 0.26% | |
| 77 |
| Roger Sloan | 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.3% ≈ 335/1 | 0.46% | 0.16% | |
| 78 |
| Jason Dufner | 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.3% ≈ 335/1 | 0.45% | 0.16% | |
| 79 |
| Beau Hossler | 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.3% ≈ 335/1 | 0.45% | 0.15% | |
| 80 |
| Keith Mitchell | 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.3% ≈ 335/1 | 0.43% | 0.13% | |
| 81 |
| J.J Spaun | 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.3% ≈ 335/1 | 0.37% | 0.08% | |
| 82 |
| Kiradech Aphibarnrat | 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.4% | 0.3% ≈ 335/1 | 0.37% | 0.07% | |
| 83 |
| Bronson Burgoon | 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.3% ≈ 335/1 | 0.35% | 0.05% | |
| 84 |
| Michael Gligic | 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.33% | 0.25% ≈ 402/1 | 0.5% | 0.25% | |
| 85 |
| Hank Lebioda | 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.33% | 0.25% ≈ 402/1 | 0.48% | 0.24% | |
| 86 |
| Cameron Percy | 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.33% | 0.25% ≈ 402/1 | 0.36% | 0.11% | |
| 87 |
| Rob Oppenheim | 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.33% | 0.25% ≈ 402/1 | 0.3% | 0.05% | |
| 88 |
| Steve Stricker | 300 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.33% | 0.25% ≈ 402/1 | 0.26% | 0.01% | |
| 89 |
| Akshay Bhatia | 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.28% | 0.21% ≈ 469/1 | 0% | -0.21% | |
| 90 |
| Chase Seiffert | 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.25% | 0.19% ≈ 536/1 | 0.63% | 0.44% | |
| 91 |
| Bo Hoag | 400 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.25% | 0.19% ≈ 536/1 | 0.54% | 0.35% | |
| 92 |
| Aaron Baddeley | 400 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.25% | 0.19% ≈ 536/1 | 0.38% | 0.19% | |
| 93 |
| Joseph Bramlett | 400 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.25% | 0.19% ≈ 536/1 | 0.36% | 0.18% | |
| 94 |
| Fabian Gomez | 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.25% | 0.19% ≈ 536/1 | 0.33% | 0.14% | |
| 95 |
| Kyounghoon Lee | 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.25% | 0.19% ≈ 536/1 | 0.28% | 0.09% | |
| 96 |
| Kelly Kraft | 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.25% | 0.19% ≈ 536/1 | 0.28% | 0.09% | |
| 97 |
| Nick Watney | 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.25% | 0.19% ≈ 536/1 | 0.23% | 0.04% | |
| 98 |
| Luke Donald | 400 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.25% | 0.19% ≈ 536/1 | 0.18% | -0.01% | |
| 99 |
| D.J. Trahan | 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.25% | 0.19% ≈ 536/1 | 0.18% | -0.01% | |
| 100 |
| Roberto Diaz | 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.25% | 0.19% ≈ 536/1 | 0.14% | -0.04% | |
| 101 |
| Rhein Gibson | 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.25% | 0.19% ≈ 536/1 | 0% | -0.19% | |
| 102 |
| Satoshi Kodaira | 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.15% ≈ 670/1 | 0.4% | 0.25% | |
| 103 |
| Scott Harrington | 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.15% ≈ 670/1 | 0.39% | 0.24% | |
| 104 |
| Brandon Hagy | 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.15% ≈ 670/1 | 0.32% | 0.17% | |
| 105 |
| Chris Baker | 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.15% ≈ 670/1 | 0.27% | 0.12% | |
| 106 |
| Tim Wilkinson | 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.15% ≈ 670/1 | 0.26% | 0.12% | |
| 107 |
| Sebastian Cappelen | 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.15% ≈ 670/1 | 0.22% | 0.07% | |
| 108 |
| Vincent Whaley | 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.2% | 0.15% ≈ 670/1 | 0.21% | 0.06% | |
| 109 |
| Mark Anderson | 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.15% ≈ 670/1 | 0.15% | 0% | |
| 110 |
| Johnson Wagner | 500 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.15% ≈ 670/1 | 0.12% | -0.03% | |
| 111 |
| Sam Ryder | 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.17% | 0.12% ≈ 804/1 | 0.56% | 0.44% | |
| 112 |
| K.J. Choi | 750 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.13% | 0.1% ≈ 1005/1 | 0.16% | 0.06% | |
| 113 |
| Matt Every | 750 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.13% | 0.1% ≈ 1005/1 | 0.13% | 0.03% | |
| 114 |
| Hunter Mahan | 1000 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.1% | 0.07% ≈ 1340/1 | 0.28% | 0.21% | |
| 115 |
| Bo Van Pelt | 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.1% | 0.07% ≈ 1340/1 | 0.15% | 0.08% | |
| 116 |
| Rafael Campos | 1000 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.1% | 0.07% ≈ 1340/1 | 0.13% | 0.06% | |
| 117 |
| Isidro Benitez | 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.1% | 0.07% ≈ 1340/1 | 0% | -0.07% | |
| 118 |
| Drew Nesbitt | 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.1% | 0.07% ≈ 1340/1 | 0% | -0.07% | |
| 119 |
| Patrick Cover | 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.1% | 0.07% ≈ 1340/1 | 0% | -0.07% | |
| 120 |
| D.A. Points | 1500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.07% | 0.05% ≈ 2009/1 | 0.18% | 0.13% | |
| 121 |
| Michael Kim | 1500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.07% | 0.05% ≈ 2009/1 | 0.14% | 0.09% | |
| 122 |
| Armando Favela | 1500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.07% | 0.05% ≈ 2009/1 | 0.13% | 0.08% | |
| 123 |
| Kevin Stadler | 2000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.05% | 0.04% ≈ 2679/1 | 0.4% | 0.36% | |
| 124 |
| Sunghoon Kang | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
| 125 |
| Pablo Martin Benavides | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
| 126 |
| Ryan Brehm | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
| 127 |
| Sebastian Munoz | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
| 128 |
| Benjamin Taylor | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
| 129 |
| Michael Gellerman | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
| 130 |
| Austin Eckroat | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
| 131 |
| Quade Cummins | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
| 132 |
| Aaron Terrazas | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
Bookie Analysis
Overround of best available: 32.1 %
Overround of 'true value' of best available: 6.2 %
Key
Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?
True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.
| # | Bookie | Terms | Overround | True Overround |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William Hill | 8 @ 1/5 | 48.9% | 15.5% |
| 2 | Skybet | 8 @ 1/5 | 53.7% | 19.4% |
| 3 | Betfair Sportsbook | 8 @ 1/5 | 54.2% | 19.7% |
| 4 | Paddy Power | 8 @ 1/5 | 54.2% | 19.7% |
| 5 | Boyle Sports | 8 @ 1/5 | 58.2% | 22.8% |
| 6 | Betfred | 7 @ 1/5 | 52.4% | 27.8% |
| 7 | VBet | 5 @ 1/4 | 43.8% | 28.4% |
| 8 | Bet365 | 5 @ 1/4 | 44% | 28.6% |
| 9 | Betway | 7 @ 1/5 | 54.2% | 29.3% |
| 10 | Bet Victor | 6 @ 1/5 | 47.9% | 34.9% |
| 11 | Redzone | 5 @ 1/4 | 51.9% | 35.6% |
| 12 | SportPesa | 5 @ 1/4 | 51.9% | 35.6% |
| 13 | Sport Nation | 5 @ 1/4 | 51.9% | 35.6% |
| 14 | 10Bet | 5 @ 1/4 | 52.2% | 35.9% |
| 15 | GentingBet | 6 @ 1/5 | 50.1% | 36.9% |
| 16 | Unibet | 6 @ 1/5 | 51.8% | 38.5% |
| 17 | 888Sport | 6 @ 1/5 | 51.8% | 38.5% |
| 18 | Spreadex | 6 @ 1/5 | 54.9% | 41.3% |