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Scottish Championship 2020 - Betting Preview, Odds and Result

15 Oct 2020 to 18 Oct 2020 Tour DP World Tour Prize fund 10,000 Field 108 Odds updated 14 Oct 2020

See what we tipped for the Scottish Championship

The table below shows the whole field with our model's numbers - but the players at the top of the market, and the bets we actually advised, stay locked. Members get the shortlist, the stake for each bet, and the bookmaker with the best each-way terms, in their inbox every Tuesday morning.

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profit since 2020, staked at £10 a point
return on investment

Every tip published since 2020, settled and shown in full on the track record page.

Scottish Championship 2020 at a glance

Favourite
12/1Matt Wallace
Favourite's chance
6.0%after the margin is removed
Top 5 in the market
26.2%combined win chance
Field
108105 priced by the bookies
Best-price overround
25.0%vs 15.7% at the cheapest book
100/1 or bigger
66players in the field

The market, read in numbers

The bookmakers made Matt Wallace favourite for the Scottish Championship at 12/1. That is an implied 7.7% before the margin comes out, and 6.0% once the book is normalised back to 100%. On that number no player is anywhere near a standout, and the market is wide open, with Lee Westwood next in at 14/1.

The five shortest players in the market share 26.2% of the win chance between them, which leaves 73.8% spread across the other 100 priced players. That is an unusually flat market. When no small group of players dominates, a model that prices the whole field has more room to disagree with the bookmakers. 66 players are priced at 100/1 or bigger.

Take the best price available on every player and the overround on this market is 25.0%, or 10.4% once the each-way terms are valued properly. The cheapest single bookmaker on this event is Bet365 at 15.7% (5 @ 1/4), so taking the best price player by player is worth -9.3 points of margin before a single selection is made. We explain how the number is built in what are the bookies' margins on golf, and which books are worth having an account with in which bookie is best for golf.

Our model prices every player in the field from world ranking points, recent form and the strength of the field, then compares that price against the market. Where our number is higher than the bookmakers', there is an edge - that is the Discrepancy column in the table below. Picks are the players with the biggest edge once the each-way terms on offer are taken into account, which is why a 150/1 shot at 1/5 odds and 8 places can be a better bet than the same player at 150/1 and 5 places elsewhere.

Scottish Championship 2020 odds

Best available outright prices across the bookmakers we track, with the implied chance each price carries. Normalised probability removes the bookmakers' margin so the column sums to 100%.

# Player Odds ImpliedImpl. NormalisedNorm. Finish
1 England Matt Wallace 12/1 7.7% 6.0% 2nd
2 ENG Lee Westwood 14/1 6.7% 5.2% 14th
3 England Eddie Pepperell 14/1 6.7% 5.2% 16th
4 ENG Aaron Rai 14/1 6.7% 5.2% 3rd
5 Scotland Robert MacIntyre 16/1 5.9% 4.6% -
6 Italy Renato Paratore 22/1 4.3% 3.4% 37th
7 England Matthew Jordan 22/1 4.3% 3.4% 25th
8 ENG Sam Horsfield 28/1 3.4% 2.7% 43rd
9 ENG Matthew Southgate 30/1 3.2% 2.5% 16th
10 Scotland Connor Syme 33/1 2.9% 2.3% 37th
11 JPN Masahiro Kawamura 40/1 2.4% 1.9% 90th
12 RSA Justin Harding 40/1 2.4% 1.9% 30th
13 South Africa Brandon Stone 40/1 2.4% 1.9% 16th
14 SCO Richie Ramsay 45/1 2.2% 1.7% 33rd
15 England Paul Waring 45/1 2.2% 1.7% 25th
16 Scotland Scott Jamieson 50/1 2.0% 1.5% 37th
17 RSA Dean Burmester 50/1 2.0% 1.5% 87th
18 USA Sean Crocker 50/1 2.0% 1.5% 9th
19 SCO Marc Warren 55/1 1.8% 1.4% 25th
20 Ireland Padraig Harrington 55/1 1.8% 1.4% 14th

Prices were recorded before the tournament started and are not live. Always check the current price with your bookmaker.

How the Scottish Championship 2020 finished

Adrian Otaegui won the Scottish Championship, having started the week at 66/1 - an implied 1.5% chance. The favourite, Matt Wallace, finished 2nd.

Pos Player Starting odds Implied chanceImpl.
1 United Arab Emirates Adrian Otaegui 66/1 1.5%
2 England Matt Wallace 12/1 7.7%
3 ENG Aaron Rai 14/1 6.7%
4 ENG Chris Paisley 100/1 1.0%
4 ENG Garrick Porteous 275/1 0.4%
6 France Adrien Saddier 125/1 0.8%
7 NIR Jonathan Caldwell 175/1 0.6%
7 England Marcus Armitage 80/1 1.2%
9 WAL Jamie Donaldson 80/1 1.2%
9 England Matthew Baldwin 175/1 0.6%
9 WAL Oliver Farr 250/1 0.4%
9 Sweden Sebastian Soderberg 90/1 1.1%
9 USA Sean Crocker 50/1 2.0%

Our model's numbers for the full field

Every player we priced for the Scottish Championship, with the model's win probability and the edge against the market. The players at the top of the market are locked, and so are the bets we advised.

🔒 The favourites and the advised bets are members only. Unlock for £1 →
# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Edge
1 🔒
2 🔒
3 🔒
4 🔒
5 🔒
6 🔒
7 🔒
8 🔒
9 🔒
10 🔒
11 RSA Justin Harding 40 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.9% ≈ 52/1 2.63% 0.73%
12 JPN Masahiro Kawamura 40 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.9% ≈ 52/1 2.1% 0.2%
13 South Africa Brandon Stone 40 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.9% ≈ 52/1 0.95% -0.95%
14 SCO Richie Ramsay 45 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.17% 1.7% ≈ 58/1 0.74% -0.96%
15 England Paul Waring 45 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.7% ≈ 58/1 0.65% -1.05%
16 Scotland Scott Jamieson 50 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.53% ≈ 64/1 2.09% 0.56%
17 USA Sean Crocker 50 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.53% ≈ 64/1 1.47% -0.06%
18 RSA Dean Burmester 50 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.53% ≈ 64/1 0.89% -0.64%
19 Ireland Padraig Harrington 55 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.39% ≈ 71/1 1.96% 0.57%
20 SCO Marc Warren 55 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.39% ≈ 71/1 1.34% -0.06%
21 Scotland Grant Forrest 55 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.39% ≈ 71/1 1.02% -0.38%
22 NED Wil Besseling 60 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.28% ≈ 77/1 1.66% 0.38%
23 United Arab Emirates Adrian Otaegui 66 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.17% ≈ 85/1 1.21% 0.04%
24 Scotland Calum Hill 66 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.17% ≈ 85/1 1.2% 0.03%
25 FRA Clement Sordet 66 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.17% ≈ 85/1 1.15% -0.02%
26 ENG Callum Shinkwin 66 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.17% ≈ 85/1 0.95% -0.21%
27 Thailand Kiradech Aphibarnrat 66 (GentingBet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.17% ≈ 85/1 0.82% -0.35%
28 England Jack Senior 66 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.17% ≈ 85/1 0.79% -0.38%
29 India Shubhankar Sharma 66 (GentingBet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.17% ≈ 85/1 0.62% -0.54%
30 AUS Minwoo Lee 66 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.17% ≈ 85/1 0.61% -0.56%
31 WAL Jamie Donaldson 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.96% ≈ 103/1 1.48% 0.51%
32 England Marcus Armitage 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.96% ≈ 103/1 1.35% 0.39%
33 AUS Scott Hend 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.96% ≈ 103/1 1.04% 0.08%
34 ENG Ben Stow 80 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.96% ≈ 103/1 0.83% -0.13%
35 AUS Wade Ormsby 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.96% ≈ 103/1 0.8% -0.17%
36 Poland Adrian Meronk 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.96% ≈ 103/1 0.63% -0.33%
37 SCO Craig Howie 90 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.86% ≈ 116/1 1.85% 0.99%
38 SWE Oscar Lengden 90 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.86% ≈ 116/1 1.55% 0.7%
39 Sweden Sebastian Soderberg 90 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.86% ≈ 116/1 0.85% -0.01%
40 ENG Chris Paisley 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.77% ≈ 128/1 1.82% 1.05%
41 ESP Alejandro Canizares 100 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.77% ≈ 128/1 0.35% -0.43%
42 ENG Toby Tree 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.7% ≈ 141/1 0.56% -0.15%
43 Scotland Ewen Ferguson 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.62% ≈ 160/1 1.17% 0.55%
44 England James Morrison 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.62% ≈ 160/1 0.68% 0.06%
45 DEN Martin Leth Simonsen 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.62% ≈ 160/1 0.63% 0.01%
46 France Adrien Saddier 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.62% ≈ 160/1 0.56% -0.06%
47 AUS Jake McLeod 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.62% ≈ 160/1 0.35% -0.27%
48 France Alexander Levy 140 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.71% 0.55% ≈ 180/1 0.45% -0.1%
49 ENG Dale Whitnell 150 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.52% ≈ 192/1 1.36% 0.85%
50 ENG David Coupland 150 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.52% ≈ 192/1 0.88% 0.36%
51 CAN Aaron Cockerill 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.52% ≈ 192/1 0.74% 0.22%
52 Sweden Niklas Lemke 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.52% ≈ 192/1 0.6% 0.08%
53 NED Daan Huizing 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.52% ≈ 192/1 0.58% 0.06%
54 SCO Stephen Gallacher 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.52% ≈ 192/1 0.51% -0.01%
55 RSA Bryce Easton 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.52% ≈ 192/1 0.43% -0.09%
56 ENG Ashley Chesters 160 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.62% 0.49% ≈ 205/1 0.61% 0.12%
57 SWE Jens Fahrbring 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.44% ≈ 224/1 1.01% 0.56%
58 RSA Justin Walters 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.44% ≈ 224/1 0.94% 0.49%
59 ENG Ben Evans 175 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.44% ≈ 224/1 0.71% 0.27%
60 NIR Jonathan Caldwell 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.44% ≈ 224/1 0.55% 0.1%
61 FRA Romain Wattel 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.44% ≈ 224/1 0.41% -0.04%
62 England Matthew Baldwin 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.44% ≈ 224/1 0.41% -0.04%
63 Scotland David Law 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.44% ≈ 224/1 0.36% -0.09%
64 China Wu Ashun 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.44% ≈ 224/1 0.34% -0.11%
65 Netherlands Darius Van Driel 200 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.39% ≈ 256/1 0.67% 0.28%
66 Northern Ireland Cormac Sharvin 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.39% ≈ 256/1 0.57% 0.18%
67 ESP Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.39% ≈ 256/1 0.54% 0.15%
68 GER Hurly Long 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.39% ≈ 256/1 0.35% -0.04%
69 ENG Chris Wood 200 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.39% ≈ 256/1 0.34% -0.05%
70 WAL Oliver Farr 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.31% ≈ 320/1 1.13% 0.82%
71 Germany Marcel Schneider 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.31% ≈ 320/1 0.91% 0.6%
72 POR Ricardo Santos 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.31% ≈ 320/1 0.41% 0.1%
73 SWE Robin Petersson 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.31% ≈ 320/1 0.36% 0.04%
74 ENG Lee Slattery 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.31% ≈ 320/1 0.26% -0.05%
75 ENG Garrick Porteous 275 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.36% 0.28% ≈ 352/1 0.58% 0.3%
76 SCO Liam Johnston 275 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.36% 0.28% ≈ 352/1 0.5% 0.22%
77 Scotland Euan Walker 275 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.36% 0.28% ≈ 352/1 0.32% 0.04%
78 SCO David Drysdale 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.26% ≈ 384/1 0.41% 0.15%
79 FRA Gregory Havret 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.26% ≈ 384/1 0.34% 0.08%
80 FRA Damien Perrier 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.26% ≈ 384/1 0.3% 0.04%
81 ENG David Dixon 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.22% ≈ 448/1 2.39% 2.16%
82 Brazil Pedro Figueiredo 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.22% ≈ 448/1 0.73% 0.51%
83 SWE Joel Sjoholm 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.22% ≈ 448/1 0.62% 0.39%
84 FRA Mathieu Fenasse 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.22% ≈ 448/1 0.45% 0.23%
85 FRA Joel Stalter 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.22% ≈ 448/1 0.4% 0.18%
86 NED Lars Van Meijel 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.22% ≈ 448/1 0.28% 0.06%
87 ENG Oliver Wilson 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.19% ≈ 512/1 0.32% 0.13%
88 SWE Philip Eriksson 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% ≈ 641/1 1% 0.84%
89 Scotland Daniel Young 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.16% ≈ 641/1 0.46% 0.3%
90 England Daniel Gavins 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.16% ≈ 641/1 0.43% 0.28%
91 DEN Benjamin Henry Poke 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.16% ≈ 641/1 0.43% 0.27%
92 IRL Gavin Moynihan 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.16% ≈ 641/1 0.42% 0.26%
93 ENG David Howell 500 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% ≈ 641/1 0.39% 0.23%
94 ENG Ross McGowan 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.16% ≈ 641/1 0.38% 0.23%
95 IND Gaganjeet Bhullar 500 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% ≈ 641/1 0.36% 0.2%
96 NOR Kristoffer Reitan 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.16% ≈ 641/1 0.3% 0.14%
97 ITA Lorenzo Scalise 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.13% ≈ 769/1 0.54% 0.41%
98 AUS Zach Murray 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.13% ≈ 769/1 0.45% 0.32%
99 IMN Tom Gandy 600 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.13% ≈ 769/1 0.41% 0.28%
100 IRL Niall Kearney 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.13% ≈ 769/1 0.36% 0.23%
101 FRA Raphael Jacquelin 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.13% ≈ 769/1 0.34% 0.21%
102 FIN Janne Kaske 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.1% ≈ 961/1 0.43% 0.33%
103 ENG Steven Tiley 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.1% ≈ 961/1 0.43% 0.32%
104 SCO Ross Cameron 1000 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% ≈ 1281/1 0.32% 0.24%
105 NZL Michael Campbell 1000 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% ≈ 1281/1 0.31% 0.23%
106 IND S.S.P. Chawrasia 0% 0% ≈ 0/1 0% 0%
107 ENG Jordan Wrisdale 0% 0% ≈ 0/1 0% 0%
108 Denmark Nicolai Hojgaard 0% 0% ≈ 0/1 0% 0%
Show all 108 players ↓
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Bookmaker margins and each-way terms

What each bookmaker is charging on this market, and the each-way terms they are offering. True overround values the extra places properly, so it is the number to compare - the lower it is, the more the bookmaker is giving back. How we calculate it.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 29.7% 15.7%
2 Skybet 6 @ 1/5 42.2% 29.6%
3 Boyle Sports 8 @ 1/5 67.2% 29.6%
4 Betfair Sportsbook 7 @ 1/5 56.2% 30.9%
5 Paddy Power 7 @ 1/5 56.2% 30.9%
6 Betway 7 @ 1/5 58.5% 32.8%
7 VBet 6 @ 1/5 45.9% 33%
8 Redzone 5 @ 1/4 49.8% 33.7%
9 SportPesa 5 @ 1/4 49.8% 33.7%
10 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 49.8% 33.7%
11 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 46.7% 33.8%
12 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 49.9% 33.8%
13 Betfred 6 @ 1/5 48.3% 35.2%
14 GentingBet 6 @ 1/5 49.4% 36.2%
15 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 54.8% 41.2%
16 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 56.1% 42.4%
17 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 56.2% 42.4%
18 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 56.2% 42.4%

Scottish Championship 2020 betting FAQ

Who was favourite for the Scottish Championship 2020?

Matt Wallace was the outright favourite at 12/1, which is an implied chance of 7.7% before the bookmakers' margin is removed and 6.0% after. Lee Westwood was next in the market at 14/1.

Who won the Scottish Championship 2020?

Adrian Otaegui won the Scottish Championship 2020, starting the week at 66/1.

When was the Scottish Championship 2020 played?

The Scottish Championship started on Thursday 15 October 2020 and finished on Sunday 18 October 2020. It is a DP World Tour event.

How big was the Scottish Championship field?

108 players were in the field, 105 of them priced by the bookmakers. 66 of those were 100/1 or bigger, which is where most each-way value is found.

What margin do the bookmakers take on the Scottish Championship?

Taking the best price available on every player cuts the overround to 25.0%, against 15.7% at Bet365, the cheapest single bookmaker on this market. Shopping the whole market is worth more than most tips are.

Where can I get Scottish Championship betting tips?

GolfForecast publishes its Scottish Championship picks each Tuesday morning, with the stake for each bet and the bookmaker offering the best each-way terms. A 30-day trial costs £1.

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