Betting Tips for WGC - Mexico Championship

Key

Odds: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

Implied: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

Normalised: The golfer's actual implied probability. (They sum to 100%).

Discrepancy: THE MONEY MAKER Predicted - Implied. This shows the value in the bet, the higher the better.

Value: The value of the odds and terms on offer. More info.


Forecast Table

Up to date as of: one month ago | OddsChecker

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep.
1 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 14/1 4.27% -2.56%
2 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 8/1 3.4% -7.34%
3 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 10/1 2.76% -6.64%
4 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 27/1 2.75% -0.83%
5 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 24/1 2.58% -1.38%
6 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 167/1 2.57% 1.97%
7 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 399/1 2.48% 2.23%
8 RSA Louis Oosthuizen 35 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.09% ≈ 47/1 2.34% 0.26%
9 USA Justin Thomas 10 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 9.09% 6.83% ≈ 14/1 2.33% -4.5%
10 KOR Sungjae Im 60 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.23% ≈ 80/1 2.27% 1.04%
11 USA Xander Schauffele 20 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.58% ≈ 27/1 2.25% -1.33%
12 NIR Graeme McDowell 100 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.74% ≈ 133/1 2.17% 1.42%
13 USA Gary Woodland 50 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.47% ≈ 67/1 2.15% 0.68%
14 AUT Matthias Schwab 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% ≈ 167/1 2.07% 1.47%
15 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 50 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.47% ≈ 67/1 2.06% 0.59%
16 SCO Robert MacIntyre 100 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.74% ≈ 133/1 2.05% 1.3%
17 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 20 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.58% ≈ 27/1 2.02% -1.56%
18 USA Kevin Na 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.68% ≈ 147/1 1.97% 1.29%
19 USA Lanto Griffin 150 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.5% ≈ 200/1 1.94% 1.44%
20 USA Billy Horschel 90 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.83% ≈ 120/1 1.89% 1.06%
21 USA Patrick Reed 45 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.17% 1.63% ≈ 60/1 1.88% 0.25%
22 ESP Sergio Garcia 45 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.63% ≈ 60/1 1.75% 0.11%
23 ENG Paul Casey 35 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.09% ≈ 47/1 1.73% -0.36%
24 JPN Hideki Matsuyama 20 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.58% ≈ 27/1 1.61% -1.96%
25 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.93% ≈ 107/1 1.6% 0.67%
26 USA Matt Kuchar 45 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.63% ≈ 60/1 1.58% -0.05%
27 FRA Victor Perez 80 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.93% ≈ 107/1 1.54% 0.61%
28 USA Collin Morikawa 40 (Spreadex: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.83% ≈ 54/1 1.51% -0.32%
29 IRL Shane Lowry 66 (Spreadex: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.12% ≈ 88/1 1.5% 0.38%
30 USA Bryson DeChambeau 33 (Spreadex: 5 @ 1/4) 2.94% 2.21% ≈ 44/1 1.48% -0.73%
31 USA Bubba Watson 55 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.34% ≈ 74/1 1.43% 0.09%
32 RSA Christiaan Bezuidenhout 100 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.74% ≈ 133/1 1.43% 0.69%
33 AUS Marc Leishman 50 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.47% ≈ 67/1 1.37% -0.1%
34 RSA Erik van Rooyen 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% ≈ 200/1 1.34% 0.84%
35 RSA Shaun Norris 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% ≈ 399/1 1.34% 1.09%
36 USA Brendon Todd 150 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% ≈ 200/1 1.34% 0.84%
37 CAN Corey Conners 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% ≈ 167/1 1.33% 0.74%
38 MEX Abraham Ancer 55 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.34% ≈ 74/1 1.31% -0.03%
39 MEX Carlos Ortiz 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% ≈ 200/1 1.29% 0.79%
40 USA Scottie Scheffler 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.74% ≈ 133/1 1.28% 0.53%
41 ESP Rafael Cabrera Bello 80 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.93% ≈ 107/1 1.21% 0.28%
42 AUT Bernd Wiesberger 125 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% ≈ 167/1 1.19% 0.6%
43 USA Charles Howell III 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% ≈ 167/1 1.18% 0.58%
44 USA Brandt Snedeker 70 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.06% ≈ 93/1 1.15% 0.1%
45 AUS Lucas Herbert 175 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.43% ≈ 233/1 1.1% 0.68%
46 ENG Danny Willett 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% ≈ 167/1 1.09% 0.49%
47 ENG Matt Wallace 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% ≈ 200/1 1.07% 0.57%
48 USA Jordan Spieth 60 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.23% ≈ 80/1 1.03% -0.2%
49 KOR Byeong Hun An 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.93% ≈ 107/1 1.02% 0.09%
50 SWE Marcus Kinhult 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.37% ≈ 266/1 0.97% 0.6%
51 AUS Cameron Smith 100 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.74% ≈ 133/1 0.92% 0.17%
52 USA Chez Reavie 125 (Sportingbet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.6% ≈ 167/1 0.91% 0.32%
53 JPN Ryo Ishikawa 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.21% ≈ 466/1 0.9% 0.69%
54 ENG Lee Westwood 125 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% ≈ 167/1 0.88% 0.28%
55 RSA Branden Grace 100 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.74% ≈ 133/1 0.83% 0.09%
56 NZL Ryan Fox 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% ≈ 333/1 0.75% 0.45%
57 USA Kevin Kisner 90 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.83% ≈ 120/1 0.75% -0.08%
58 FRA Benjamin Hebert 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% ≈ 399/1 0.73% 0.48%
59 RSA Zander Lombard 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.21% ≈ 466/1 0.68% 0.47%
60 USA Lucas Glover 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% ≈ 200/1 0.62% 0.12%
61 ESP Jorge Campillo 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.21% ≈ 466/1 0.49% 0.28%
62 ESP Pablo Larrazabal 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.21% ≈ 466/1 0.47% 0.25%
63 RSA Justin Harding 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.21% ≈ 466/1 0.37% 0.16%
64 THA Jazz Janewattananond 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% ≈ 200/1 0.37% -0.13%
65 USA Jason Kokrak 150 (Marathon Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.5% ≈ 200/1 0.36% -0.13%
66 ITA Francesco Molinari 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% ≈ 200/1 0.29% -0.21%
67 AUS Zach Murray 500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% ≈ 666/1 0.28% 0.13%
68 AUS Scott Hend 500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% ≈ 666/1 0.27% 0.12%
69 KOR Taehee Lee 1000 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% ≈ 1331/1 0.12% 0.05%
70 FRA Michael Lorenzo-Vera 0% 0% ≈ 0/1 0% 0%
71 KOR Sunghoon Kang 0% 0% ≈ 0/1 0% 0%
72 COL Juan Sebastian Munoz 0% 0% ≈ 0/1 0% 0%

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 33.0 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 15.0 %

Key


Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Skybet 7 @ 1/5 44.8% 21.9%
2 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 38.9% 24.3%
3 Betfair Sportsbook 7 @ 1/5 48.5% 25%
4 Boyle Sports 7 @ 1/5 49.6% 26%
5 Paddy Power 7 @ 1/5 51.2% 27.3%
6 Spreadex 5 @ 1/4 45.4% 30.2%
7 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 42.4% 30.2%
8 Sportingbet 5 @ 1/4 45.7% 30.4%
9 Betway 7 @ 1/5 55.2% 30.8%
10 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 43.2% 30.9%
11 Marathon Bet 5 @ 1/4 46.9% 31.4%
12 VBet 5 @ 1/4 47.1% 31.6%
13 Betfred 6 @ 1/5 45.2% 32.7%
14 Ladbrokes 5 @ 1/4 49.6% 33.9%
15 Coral 5 @ 1/4 49.6% 33.9%
16 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 46.5% 33.9%
17 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 47.6% 34.9%
18 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 51.6% 35.7%
19 MoPlay 5 @ 1/4 51.6% 35.7%
20 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 51.6% 35.7%