Betting Market Analysis for WGC - Mexico Championship
Key
Odds: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?
Implied: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.
Normalised: The golfer's actual implied probability. (They sum to 100%).
Discrepancy: THE MONEY MAKER Predicted - Implied. This shows the value in the bet, the higher the better.
Value: The value of the odds and terms on offer. More info.
Forecast Table
Up to date as of: 5 years ago
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| # | Player | Bookies' Odds | Implied Impl. | Normalised Norm. | Predicted Pred. | Discrepancy Discrep. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 8/1 | 3.4% | -7.34% | |
| 2 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 10/1 | 2.76% | -6.64% | |
| 3 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 14/1 | 4.27% | -2.56% | |
| 4 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 14/1 | 2.33% | -4.5% | |
| 5 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 24/1 | 2.58% | -1.38% | |
| 6 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 27/1 | 2.75% | -0.83% | |
| 7 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 27/1 | 2.25% | -1.33% | |
| 8 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 20 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 4.76% | 3.58% ≈ 27/1 | 2.02% | -1.56% | |
| 9 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 20 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 4.76% | 3.58% ≈ 27/1 | 1.61% | -1.96% | |
| 10 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | 33 (Spreadex: 5 @ 1/4) | 2.94% | 2.21% ≈ 44/1 | 1.48% | -0.73% | |
| 11 |
| Louis Oosthuizen | 35 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 2.78% | 2.09% ≈ 47/1 | 2.34% | 0.26% | |
| 12 |
| Paul Casey | 35 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 2.78% | 2.09% ≈ 47/1 | 1.73% | -0.36% | |
| 13 |
| Collin Morikawa | 40 (Spreadex: 5 @ 1/4) | 2.44% | 1.83% ≈ 54/1 | 1.51% | -0.32% | |
| 14 |
| Patrick Reed | 45 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 2.17% | 1.63% ≈ 60/1 | 1.88% | 0.25% | |
| 15 |
| Sergio Garcia | 45 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 2.17% | 1.63% ≈ 60/1 | 1.75% | 0.11% | |
| 16 |
| Matt Kuchar | 45 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) | 2.17% | 1.63% ≈ 60/1 | 1.58% | -0.05% | |
| 17 |
| Gary Woodland | 50 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.96% | 1.47% ≈ 67/1 | 2.15% | 0.68% | |
| 18 |
| Matthew Fitzpatrick | 50 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 1.96% | 1.47% ≈ 67/1 | 2.06% | 0.59% | |
| 19 |
| Marc Leishman | 50 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 1.96% | 1.47% ≈ 67/1 | 1.37% | -0.1% | |
| 20 |
| Bubba Watson | 55 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) | 1.79% | 1.34% ≈ 74/1 | 1.43% | 0.09% | |
| 21 |
| Abraham Ancer | 55 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.79% | 1.34% ≈ 74/1 | 1.31% | -0.03% | |
| 22 |
| Sungjae Im | 60 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.64% | 1.23% ≈ 80/1 | 2.27% | 1.04% | |
| 23 |
| Jordan Spieth | 60 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.64% | 1.23% ≈ 80/1 | 1.03% | -0.2% | |
| 24 |
| Shane Lowry | 66 (Spreadex: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.49% | 1.12% ≈ 88/1 | 1.5% | 0.38% | |
| 25 |
| Brandt Snedeker | 70 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 1.41% | 1.06% ≈ 93/1 | 1.15% | 0.1% | |
| 26 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.23% | 0.93% ≈ 107/1 | 1.6% | 0.67% | |
| 27 |
| Victor Perez | 80 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 1.23% | 0.93% ≈ 107/1 | 1.54% | 0.61% | |
| 28 |
| Rafael Cabrera Bello | 80 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 1.23% | 0.93% ≈ 107/1 | 1.21% | 0.28% | |
| 29 |
| Byeong Hun An | 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.23% | 0.93% ≈ 107/1 | 1.02% | 0.09% | |
| 30 |
| Billy Horschel | 90 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.1% | 0.83% ≈ 120/1 | 1.89% | 1.06% | |
| 31 |
| Kevin Kisner | 90 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 1.1% | 0.83% ≈ 120/1 | 0.75% | -0.08% | |
| 32 |
| Graeme McDowell | 100 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.74% ≈ 133/1 | 2.17% | 1.42% | |
| 33 |
| Robert MacIntyre | 100 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.74% ≈ 133/1 | 2.05% | 1.3% | |
| 34 |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | 100 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.74% ≈ 133/1 | 1.43% | 0.69% | |
| 35 |
| Scottie Scheffler | 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.99% | 0.74% ≈ 133/1 | 1.28% | 0.53% | |
| 36 |
| Cameron Smith | 100 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.74% ≈ 133/1 | 0.92% | 0.17% | |
| 37 |
| Branden Grace | 100 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.74% ≈ 133/1 | 0.83% | 0.09% | |
| 38 |
| Kevin Na | 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.9% | 0.68% ≈ 147/1 | 1.97% | 1.29% | |
| 39 |
| Kurt Kitayama | 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.6% ≈ 167/1 | 2.57% | 1.97% | |
| 40 |
| Matthias Schwab | 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.6% ≈ 167/1 | 2.07% | 1.47% | |
| 41 |
| Corey Conners | 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.6% ≈ 167/1 | 1.33% | 0.74% | |
| 42 |
| Bernd Wiesberger | 125 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.6% ≈ 167/1 | 1.19% | 0.6% | |
| 43 |
| Charles Howell III | 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.6% ≈ 167/1 | 1.18% | 0.58% | |
| 44 |
| Danny Willett | 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.6% ≈ 167/1 | 1.09% | 0.49% | |
| 45 |
| Chez Reavie | 125 (Sportingbet: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.79% | 0.6% ≈ 167/1 | 0.91% | 0.32% | |
| 46 |
| Lee Westwood | 125 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.6% ≈ 167/1 | 0.88% | 0.28% | |
| 47 |
| Lanto Griffin | 150 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.66% | 0.5% ≈ 200/1 | 1.94% | 1.44% | |
| 48 |
| Erik van Rooyen | 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.5% ≈ 200/1 | 1.34% | 0.84% | |
| 49 |
| Brendon Todd | 150 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.5% ≈ 200/1 | 1.34% | 0.84% | |
| 50 |
| Carlos Ortiz | 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.5% ≈ 200/1 | 1.29% | 0.79% | |
| 51 |
| Matt Wallace | 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.5% ≈ 200/1 | 1.07% | 0.57% | |
| 52 |
| Lucas Glover | 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.5% ≈ 200/1 | 0.62% | 0.12% | |
| 53 |
| Jazz Janewattananond | 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.5% ≈ 200/1 | 0.37% | -0.13% | |
| 54 |
| Jason Kokrak | 150 (Marathon Bet: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.66% | 0.5% ≈ 200/1 | 0.36% | -0.13% | |
| 55 |
| Francesco Molinari | 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.5% ≈ 200/1 | 0.29% | -0.21% | |
| 56 |
| Lucas Herbert | 175 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.57% | 0.43% ≈ 233/1 | 1.1% | 0.68% | |
| 57 |
| Marcus Kinhult | 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.37% ≈ 266/1 | 0.97% | 0.6% | |
| 58 |
| Ryan Fox | 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.3% ≈ 333/1 | 0.75% | 0.45% | |
| 59 |
| Shugo Imahira | 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.33% | 0.25% ≈ 399/1 | 2.48% | 2.23% | |
| 60 |
| Shaun Norris | 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.33% | 0.25% ≈ 399/1 | 1.34% | 1.09% | |
| 61 |
| Benjamin Hebert | 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.33% | 0.25% ≈ 399/1 | 0.73% | 0.48% | |
| 62 |
| Ryo Ishikawa | 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.28% | 0.21% ≈ 466/1 | 0.9% | 0.69% | |
| 63 |
| Zander Lombard | 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.28% | 0.21% ≈ 466/1 | 0.68% | 0.47% | |
| 64 |
| Jorge Campillo | 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.28% | 0.21% ≈ 466/1 | 0.49% | 0.28% | |
| 65 |
| Pablo Larrazabal | 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.28% | 0.21% ≈ 466/1 | 0.47% | 0.25% | |
| 66 |
| Justin Harding | 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.28% | 0.21% ≈ 466/1 | 0.37% | 0.16% | |
| 67 |
| Zach Murray | 500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.15% ≈ 666/1 | 0.28% | 0.13% | |
| 68 |
| Scott Hend | 500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.15% ≈ 666/1 | 0.27% | 0.12% | |
| 69 |
| Taehee Lee | 1000 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.1% | 0.08% ≈ 1331/1 | 0.12% | 0.05% | |
| 70 |
| Michael Lorenzo-Vera | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
| 71 |
| Sunghoon Kang | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
| 72 |
| Sebastian Munoz | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
Bookie Analysis
Overround of best available: 33.0 %
Overround of 'true value' of best available: 15.0 %
Key
Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?
True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.
| # | Bookie | Terms | Overround | True Overround |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Skybet | 7 @ 1/5 | 44.8% | 21.9% |
| 2 | Bet365 | 5 @ 1/4 | 38.9% | 24.3% |
| 3 | Betfair Sportsbook | 7 @ 1/5 | 48.5% | 25% |
| 4 | Boyle Sports | 7 @ 1/5 | 49.6% | 26% |
| 5 | Paddy Power | 7 @ 1/5 | 51.2% | 27.3% |
| 6 | Spreadex | 5 @ 1/4 | 45.4% | 30.2% |
| 7 | William Hill | 6 @ 1/5 | 42.4% | 30.2% |
| 8 | Sportingbet | 5 @ 1/4 | 45.7% | 30.4% |
| 9 | Betway | 7 @ 1/5 | 55.2% | 30.8% |
| 10 | Bet Victor | 6 @ 1/5 | 43.2% | 30.9% |
| 11 | Marathon Bet | 5 @ 1/4 | 46.9% | 31.4% |
| 12 | VBet | 5 @ 1/4 | 47.1% | 31.6% |
| 13 | Betfred | 6 @ 1/5 | 45.2% | 32.7% |
| 14 | Ladbrokes | 5 @ 1/4 | 49.6% | 33.9% |
| 15 | Coral | 5 @ 1/4 | 49.6% | 33.9% |
| 16 | 888Sport | 6 @ 1/5 | 46.5% | 33.9% |
| 17 | Unibet | 6 @ 1/5 | 47.6% | 34.9% |
| 18 | 10Bet | 5 @ 1/4 | 51.6% | 35.7% |
| 19 | MoPlay | 5 @ 1/4 | 51.6% | 35.7% |
| 20 | Sport Nation | 5 @ 1/4 | 51.6% | 35.7% |