Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 21.8 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 5.3 %

Total Probability Staked: 9.1 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.0

Total Won: 0.0

Total Profit: -100



# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 ESP Jon Rahm 6 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 14.29% 11.71% 2.98% -8.73% T9
2 USA Xander Schauffele 18 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 5.26% 4.32% 3.14% -1.18% T49
3 USA Jordan Spieth 20 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.9% 3.49% -0.41% T34
4 USA Justin Thomas 20 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.9% 3.41% -0.5% T22
5 USA Collin Morikawa 22 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.57% 2.57% -1% T63
6 USA Dustin Johnson 22 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 4.35% 3.57% 1.15% -2.42% T6
7 USA Brooks Koepka 25 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 3.85% 3.15% 1.49% -1.67% T22
8 RSA Louis Oosthuizen 28 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 3.45% 2.83% 2.42% -0.41% T38
9 NIR Rory McIlroy 28 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 3.45% 2.83% 2.41% -0.42% 4
10 AUS Cameron Smith 28 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 3.45% 2.83% 1.73% -1.1% T34
11 USA Tony Finau 30 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 3.23% 2.65% 2.11% -0.53% T15
12 USA Patrick Cantlay 30 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 3.23% 2.65% 1.52% -1.12% 1
13 USA Scottie Scheffler 33 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.94% 2.41% 2.66% 0.25% T22 26.37
14 USA Bryson DeChambeau 33 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 2.94% 2.41% 2.55% 0.13% 2
15 NOR Viktor Hovland 33 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.41% 1.54% -0.88% T17
16 MEX Abraham Ancer 40 (888sport: 7 @ 1/5) 2.44% 2% 2.5% 0.5% T9 21.87
17 ENG Paul Casey 40 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 2.44% 2% 2.14% 0.14% T38
18 USA Harris English 40 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 2.44% 2% 1.77% -0.23% T26
19 USA Daniel Berger 40 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 2% 1.32% -0.68% T26
20 USA Webb Simpson 40 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 2.44% 2% 1.29% -0.71% T12
21 CAN Corey Conners 45 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 2.17% 1.78% 2.63% 0.85% T22 19.49
22 IRL Shane Lowry 45 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.78% 2.31% 0.52% T26
23 JPN Hideki Matsuyama 50 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.61% 2.62% 1.01% T46 17.58
24 USA Sam Burns 60 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.34% 2.42% 1.07% 8 14.7
25 CHI Joaquin Niemann 60 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.34% 1.22% -0.12% T29
26 KOR Sungjae Im 66 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.22% 1.32% 0.09% 3
27 USA Jason Kokrak 80 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 1.01% 2.09% 1.08% T15
28 SWE Alexander Noren 80 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.01% 1.41% 0.39% T9
29 USA Russell Henley 80 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 1.01% 1.14% 0.13% T60
30 USA Cameron Tringale 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 1.01% 1.06% 0.05% T52
31 USA Kevin Na 80 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 1.01% 1.01% 0% T17
32 USA Keegan Bradley 90 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.9% 1.35% 0.45% T60
33 USA Brian Harman 100 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.81% 2.09% 1.28% T29
34 USA Billy Horschel 100 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.81% 1.61% 0.8% T52
35 USA Charley Hoffman 100 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.81% 1.36% 0.55% T38
36 USA Harold Varner III 100 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.81% 1.23% 0.42% T12
37 RSA Erik van Rooyen 100 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.81% 1.12% 0.3% 5
38 USA Cameron Champ 100 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.81% 0.88% 0.06% T66
39 ESP Sergio Garcia 110 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.74% 0.9% 0.16% T6
40 USA Maverick McNealy 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.74% 0.76% 0.02% T63
41 VEN Jhonattan Vegas 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.65% 1.1% 0.44% T38
42 USA Kevin Streelman 125 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.65% 1.07% 0.42% T52
43 USA Kevin Kisner 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.65% 0.99% 0.34% T66
44 COL Sebastian Munoz 125 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.65% 0.92% 0.27% T29
45 RSA Branden Grace 125 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.65% 0.89% 0.24% T52
46 KOR Siwoo Kim 140 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.71% 0.58% 1.03% 0.45% T29
47 AUS Marc Leishman 140 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.71% 0.58% 0.77% 0.19% 51
48 USA Ryan Palmer 140 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.71% 0.58% 0.68% 0.1% T57
49 ENG Lee Westwood 150 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.54% 2.18% 1.64% T34
50 USA Stewart Cink 150 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.54% 1.28% 0.73% T38
51 ARG Emiliano Grillo 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.54% 1.2% 0.66% T46
52 AUS Cameron Davis 150 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.54% 0.96% 0.42% T29
53 USA Mackenzie Hughes 150 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.54% 0.94% 0.4% T52
54 USA Talor Gooch 150 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.54% 0.71% 0.16% T57
55 USA Max Homa 160 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.62% 0.51% 0.73% 0.22% T63
56 USA Phil Mickelson 175 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.47% 1.04% 0.58% T66
57 MEX Carlos Ortiz 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.47% 0.5% 0.04% T66
58 RSA Charl Schwartzel 200 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.41% 1.01% 0.6% T17
59 USA Chris Kirk 200 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.41% 0.79% 0.38% 48
60 USA Keith Mitchell 200 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.41% 0.7% 0.29% T57
61 USA Aaron Wise 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.41% 0.6% 0.19% T17
62 USA Lucas Glover 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.33% 0.96% 0.63% T38
63 USA Patton Kizzire 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.33% 0.92% 0.59% T34
64 AUS Matt Jones 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.33% 0.77% 0.45% T38
65 USA Tom Hoge 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.33% 0.62% 0.29% T49
66 USA Harry Higgs 250 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.33% 0.56% 0.23% T38
67 USA Hudson Swafford 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.27% 0.91% 0.64% T17
68 USA Robert Streb 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.23% 0.49% 0.26% T60
69 KOR Kyounghoon Lee 0% 0% 0% 0% T12

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 21.8 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 5.3 %

Key


Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 30.1% 16.2%
2 Betfred 7 @ 1/5 40.1% 17.6%
3 William Hill 7 @ 1/5 40.5% 17.9%
4 888Sport 7 @ 1/5 42.4% 19.5%
5 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 31.3% 19.8%
6 Betfair Sportsbook 7 @ 1/5 43.8% 20.7%
7 Paddy Power 7 @ 1/5 43.8% 20.7%
8 Redzone 5 @ 1/4 35.6% 21.2%
9 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 35.8% 21.4%
10 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 35.8% 21.4%
11 Mansion Bet 5 @ 1/4 35.8% 21.4%
12 Skybet 7 @ 1/5 44.5% 21.4%
13 Betway 5 @ 1/4 39.4% 24.5%
14 Unibet 5 @ 1/4 43.5% 28.3%
15 Boyle Sports 8 @ 1/5 66.7% 29.6%
16 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 47.7% 34.9%