Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 29.6 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 7.6 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.7 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 21.2

Total Profit: -78.9

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

06/02/2020 - 09/02/2020

Up to date as of: 4 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 USA Dustin Johnson 6 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 14.29% 10.69% 1.36% -9.33% T32
2 USA Patrick Cantlay 12 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 7.69% 5.75% 1.98% -3.77% T11
3 ENG Paul Casey 18 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 5.26% 3.94% 3.66% -0.28% T64
4 AUS Jason Day 20 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.56% 0.96% -2.6% 4
5 USA Brandt Snedeker 22 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.25% 3.25% 0% MC 14.34
6 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 25 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.88% 2.83% -0.05% T60 12.68
7 USA Matt Kuchar 25 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.88% 0.94% -1.93% T38
8 USA Phil Mickelson 25 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.88% 0.63% -2.25% 3
9 RSA Branden Grace 33 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 2.94% 2.2% 1.11% -1.09% MC
10 NOR Viktor Hovland 33 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.2% 1.1% -1.1% T38
11 NIR Graeme McDowell 35 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.08% 1.92% -0.16% MC
12 USA Jordan Spieth 40 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.82% 1.52% -0.3% T9
13 USA Cameron Champ 45 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.63% 2.68% 1.06% T55 7.17
14 USA Daniel Berger 45 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.63% 0.97% -0.66% T5
15 SWE Alexander Noren 45 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.63% 0.82% -0.81% T32
16 USA Kevin Kisner 50 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.47% 2.67% 1.21% T38 6.47
17 USA Max Homa 50 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.47% 0.88% -0.58% T14
18 SCO Russell Knox 50 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.47% 0.84% -0.62% MC
19 CAN Adam Hadwin 60 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.23% 1.17% -0.05% MC
20 USA Tom Hoge 66 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.12% 1.82% 0.71% T60 4.93
21 ESP Rafael Cabrera Bello 66 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.12% 1.18% 0.06% MC 4.93
22 USA Kevin Na 70 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.05% 1.58% 0.52% T14 4.65
23 USA Kurt Kitayama 80 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.92% 2.96% 2.04% T18 4.07
24 USA Lucas Glover 80 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.92% 1.71% 0.79% T50 4.07
25 USA Vaughn Taylor 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.92% 1.28% 0.35% MC 4.07
26 USA Scott Piercy 80 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.92% 1.01% 0.09% T18 4.07
27 USA Chez Reavie 80 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.92% 0.98% 0.06% T25 4.07
28 USA J.B. Holmes 80 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.92% 0.81% -0.12% T14
29 USA Patrick Rodgers 80 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.92% 0.53% -0.4% MC
30 USA Kevin Streelman 80 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.92% 0.42% -0.5% 2
31 USA Scott Stallings 80 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.92% 0.25% -0.67% MC
32 USA Pat Perez 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.74% 1.69% 0.95% MC 3.27
33 USA Adam Long 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.74% 1.12% 0.38% MC 3.27
34 USA Nate Lashley 100 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.74% 1.06% 0.32% WD 3.27
35 USA Jim Furyk 100 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.74% 0.91% 0.16% MC 3.27
36 USA Harry Higgs 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.74% 0.82% 0.08% T18 3.27
37 USA Maverick McNealy 110 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.67% 0.83% 0.16% T5 (tied w/4) 2.97 +21.2
38 USA Andrew Landry 125 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.59% 0.82% 0.23% MC 2.62
39 AUS Cameron Davis 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.59% 0.61% 0.01% T38 2.62
40 USA Charley Hoffman 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.59% 0.42% -0.17% MC
41 USA Nick Watney 125 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.59% 0.41% -0.19% MC
42 USA Aaron Wise 125 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.59% 0.35% -0.24% T62
43 USA Jimmy Walker 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.59% 0.32% -0.27% MC
44 USA Lanto Griffin 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% 2.62% 2.13% T9
45 USA Mark Hubbard 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.5% 1.37% 0.88% MC
46 CHN Zhang Xinjun 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.5% 1.12% 0.63% T64
47 USA Matthew NeSmith 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% 0.83% 0.34% T11
48 USA Joel Dahmen 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% 0.83% 0.33% T14
49 CAN Nick Taylor 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% 0.79% 0.29% 1
50 USA Beau Hossler 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% 0.6% 0.11% T38
51 USA Chesson Hadley 160 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.62% 0.46% 0.37% -0.09% T18
52 AUS Matt Jones 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.43% 1.32% 0.9% T5
53 USA Cameron Tringale 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.43% 1.03% 0.61% T64
54 USA Wyndham Clark 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.43% 0.78% 0.36% T18
55 USA Harold Varner III 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.43% 0.68% 0.26% MC
56 SWE Henrik Norlander 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.43% 0.6% 0.17% T25
57 USA Keith Mitchell 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.43% 0.52% 0.09% T32
58 USA Brian Stuard 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.37% 0.78% 0.41% MC
59 USA Adam Schenk 200 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.37% 0.65% 0.28% T50
60 USA Doc Redman 200 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.37% 0.53% 0.16% T50
61 RSA Charl Schwartzel 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.37% 0.51% 0.13% T5
62 THA Kiradech Aphibarnrat 200 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.37% 0.45% 0.07% MC
63 USA Ted Potter-jr 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.37% 0.36% -0.01% MC
64 AUS Aaron Baddeley 200 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.37% 0.34% -0.03% T25
65 USA Kevin Chappell 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.37% 0.16% -0.21% T25
66 USA Brandon Hagy 225 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.44% 0.33% 0.23% -0.1% MC
67 USA Jason Dufner 225 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.44% 0.33% 0.18% -0.16% T62
68 USA Tyler Duncan 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 1.07% 0.77% MC
69 USA Brian Gay 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.68% 0.38% T38
70 USA Ryan Armour 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.66% 0.36% MC
71 USA Zac Blair 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.58% 0.28% T18
72 CAN David Hearn 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.52% 0.22% MC
73 DEN Sebastian Cappelen 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.45% 0.15% MC
74 USA Brice Garnett 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.44% 0.14% MC
75 KOR Siwoo Kim 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.11% MC
76 USA J.J Spaun 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.3% 0.38% 0.08% MC
77 USA Michael Thompson 250 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.37% 0.07% MC
78 USA Brandon Wu 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.3% 0.35% 0.05% T38
79 USA James Hahn 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.3% 0.32% 0.02% MC
80 USA Troy Merritt 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.29% -0.01% T25
81 USA Peter Uihlein 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.25% -0.05% MC
82 USA Sean O'Hair 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.13% -0.17% T50
83 USA Richy Werenski 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.76% 0.51% MC
84 USA Hank Lebioda 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.65% 0.4% MC
85 USA Chase Seiffert 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.63% 0.38% T50
86 NZL Tim Wilkinson 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.54% 0.29% T25
87 USA Austin Cook 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.53% 0.29% MC
88 USA Bo Hoag 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.53% 0.28% MC
89 USA D.J. Trahan 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.25% 0.49% 0.24% MC
90 USA Chris Stroud 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.44% 0.2% MC
91 USA Joseph Bramlett 300 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.25% 0.44% 0.19% T18
92 USA Ben Martin 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.4% 0.15% T25
93 USA Mark Anderson 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.37% 0.12% MC
94 USA Stewart Cink 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.25% 0.35% 0.1% T38
95 USA Tyler McCumber 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.25% 0.32% 0.08% T32
96 USA Josh Teater 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.23% -0.02% MC
97 ENG Luke Donald 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.19% -0.06% T55
98 USA Chris Kirk 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.17% -0.07% MC
99 USA Steve Stricker 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.25% 0.14% -0.11% MC
100 USA Kramer Hickok 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.21% 0.31% 0.1% WD
101 USA Matt Every 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.21% 0.27% 0.06% T32
102 USA Bill Haas 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.21% 0.19% -0.03% MC
103 USA Rob Oppenheim 400 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.48% 0.29% T38
104 IRL Padraig Harrington 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.19% 0.46% 0.27% MC
105 USA Peter Malnati 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.19% 0.41% 0.22% T11
106 USA Robert Streb 400 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.33% 0.15% MC
107 USA Wes Roach 400 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.33% 0.14% T55
108 ARG Fabian Gomez 400 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.32% 0.13% MC
109 USA Ryan Brehm 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.2% 0.01% 68
110 USA Doug Ghim 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.19% 0% MC
111 IND Anirban Lahiri 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.16% -0.03% MC
112 USA Zack Sucher 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.48% 0.33% MC
113 KOR K.J. Choi 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.46% 0.31% MC
114 USA Scott Harrington 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.38% 0.23% MC
115 USA Chad Campbell 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.36% 0.21% MC
116 USA Scott Brown 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.28% 0.13% MC
117 USA Ricky Barnes 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.27% 0.12% MC
118 USA Isaiah Salinda 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.27% 0.12% MC
119 USA Mackenzie Hughes 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.27% 0.12% MC
120 USA Dominic Bozzelli 500 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.15% 0.27% 0.12% MC
121 USA George McNeill 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.25% 0.1% MC
122 USA Chris Baker 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.23% 0.08% T38
123 USA Jim Herman 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.2% 0.05% T55
124 AUS Rhein Gibson 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.19% 0.04% MC
125 NOR Kristoffer Ventura 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.19% 0.04% MC
126 USA Sam Saunders 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.14% -0.01% MC
127 USA Roberto Castro 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.13% -0.02% MC
128 GER Alex Cejka 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.13% -0.02% T32
129 USA Jonathan Byrd 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.15% 0.13% -0.02% MC
130 USA Johnson Wagner 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.13% -0.02% MC
131 IRL Seamus Power 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.13% -0.02% T38
132 SWE David Lingmerth 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.12% -0.03% MC
133 JPN Satoshi Kodaira 600 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.12% 0.65% 0.53% MC
134 AUS Greg Chalmers 600 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.12% 0.61% 0.48% MC
135 ENG Benjamin Taylor 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.12% 0.32% 0.2% MC
136 USA Hunter Mahan 600 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.12% 0.21% 0.08% MC
137 CAN Michael Gligic 750 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.47% 0.37% T55
138 USA Michael Gellerman 750 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.21% 0.11% MC
139 USA Vincent Whaley 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.1% 0.18% 0.08% T38
140 USA Robert Garrigus 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.1% 0.13% 0.03% MC
141 USA Smylie Kaufman 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.26% 0.18% MC
142 USA Bo Van Pelt 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.2% 0.12% MC
143 ARG Nelson Ledesma 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.07% 0.17% 0.09% MC
144 AUS Rod Pampling 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.07% 0.16% 0.08% MC
145 IND Arjun Atwal 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.07% 0.13% 0.06% MC
146 USA D.A. Points 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.07% 0.13% 0.06% MC
147 USA Kevin Stadler 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.11% 0.04% MC
148 AUS John Senden 1250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.08% 0.06% 0.12% 0.06% 67
149 USA Martin Trainer 1500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.05% 0.21% 0.16% MC
150 USA David Duval 2000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.13% 0.09% WD
151 KOR Sunghoon Kang 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
152 USA J.J. Henry 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
153 USA Tim Herron 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
154 DEN Oliver Suhr 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
155 USA Patrick Martin 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
156 USA Scott de Borba 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 29.6 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 7.6 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Skybet 8 @ 1/5 52.1% 18.2%
2 Sportingbet 6 @ 1/4 52.6% 23%
3 Betfair Sportsbook 8 @ 1/5 62.4% 26%
4 Coral 7 @ 1/5 52.5% 27.8%
5 Paddy Power 8 @ 1/5 65.9% 28.8%
6 Boyle Sports 8 @ 1/5 66.4% 29%
7 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 46.3% 30.5%
8 Ladbrokes 5 @ 1/4 46.7% 30.9%
9 Betway 7 @ 1/5 56.6% 31.3%
10 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 50.4% 37.2%
11 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 53.1% 39.6%
12 Redzone 5 @ 1/4 56.5% 39.7%
13 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 56.5% 39.7%
14 MoPlay 5 @ 1/4 56.5% 39.7%
15 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 56.5% 39.7%
16 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 54.2% 40.6%
17 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 54.2% 40.6%
18 VBet 5 @ 1/4 57.6% 40.6%
19 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 56.4% 42.7%
20 Betfred 7 @ 1/5 115.5% 80.5%