Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 10.7 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 5.1 %

Total Probability Staked: 26.4 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 231.5

Total Profit: +131.4



# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 RSA Justin Harding 16 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 5.88% 4.94% 1.74% -3.21% T42
2 POL Adrian Meronk 18 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 5.26% 4.42% 1.92% -2.51% T61
3 RSA Dean Burmester 22 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 4.35% 3.65% 1.85% -1.81% T26
4 BEL Thomas Detry 24 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 4% 3.36% 1.68% -1.68% T26
5 ESP Adria Arnaus 25 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 3.85% 3.23% 2.22% -1.02% T8
6 USA Johannes Veerman 27 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 3.57% 3% 2.48% -0.52% T26
7 FRA Matthieu Pavon 33 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.47% 2.67% 0.2% T6 (tied w/2) 11.13 +42.3
8 ENG Marcus Armitage 39 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 2.5% 2.1% 1.1% -1.01% T17
9 ARG Daniel Vancsik 39 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 2.5% 2.1% 0.27% -1.83%
10 ESP Adrian Otaegui 40 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 2.05% 2.69% 0.64% T34 9.23
11 RSA Oliver Bekker 40 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 2.05% 2.53% 0.48% T8 9.23
12 FRA Julien Brun 40 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 2.05% 2.21% 0.16% T13 9.23
13 DEN Joachim B Hansen 40 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 2.44% 2.05% 1.19% -0.86% T51
14 JPN Masahiro Kawamura 45 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.83% 0.82% -1.01% T42
15 SCO Scott Jamieson 47 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 2.08% 1.75% 1.57% -0.18% T48 3.94
16 RSA Zander Lombard 47 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 2.08% 1.75% 1.09% -0.66% MC
17 IND Shubhankar Sharma 50 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.65% 2.21% 0.56% T13 7.42
18 USA Sean Crocker 50 (Ladbrokes: 7 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.65% 1.18% -0.47% WD
19 SCO Richie Ramsay 50 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.65% 0.85% -0.8% MC
20 NED Wil Besseling 55 (Betfred: 6 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.5% 0.52% -0.99% T40
21 SCO Connor Syme 60 (Betfred: 6 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.38% 0.97% -0.41% T26
22 ENG Matthew Jordan 61 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 1.61% 1.36% 0.89% -0.47% T71
23 ITA Francesco Laporta 66 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.25% 1.6% 0.35% T51 5.65
24 SCO David Law 66 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.25% 1.18% -0.07% T48 5.65
25 FRA Michael Lorenzo-Vera 66 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.25% 0.92% -0.33% MC
26 FRA Frederic LaCroix 70 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.18% 0.73% -0.46% T51
27 GER Yannik Paul 70 (Ladbrokes: 7 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.18% 0.52% -0.66% T42
28 GER Hurly Long 75 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 1.32% 1.11% 0.92% -0.18% T2 2.49
29 NED Joost Luiten 75 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 1.32% 1.11% 0.84% -0.27% MC
30 DEN Marcus Helligkilde 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 1.04% 1.29% 0.25% T51 4.67
31 ITA Nino Bertasio 80 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.04% 1.18% 0.15% T51 4.67
32 FRA Antoine Rozner 80 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 1.23% 1.04% 0.83% -0.2% T34 2.34
33 ENG Daniel Gavins 80 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.04% 0.77% -0.27% T6
34 CHN Wu Ashun 85 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 1.16% 0.98% 1.13% 0.16% 1 2.2 +189.2
35 RSA Hennie Du Plessis 89 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 1.11% 0.93% 1.45% 0.51% T42 2.11
36 ITA Guido Migliozzi 90 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.92% 0.7% -0.22% MC 4.16
37 SWE Marcus Kinhult 90 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.92% 0.49% -0.44% T8
38 RSA Jacques Kruyswijk 90 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.92% 0.45% -0.48% 60
39 SWE Joakim Lagergren 94 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 1.05% 0.88% 1.24% 0.35% MC 2
40 ENG David Horsey 94 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 1.05% 0.88% 1.13% 0.25% 5 2
41 SWE Niklas Lemke 94 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 1.05% 0.88% 0.4% -0.48% T17
42 SCO Craig Howie 100 (Ladbrokes: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.83% 0.81% -0.02% T42 3.75
43 DEN Niklas Norgaard Moller 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.83% 0.3% -0.53% T51
44 ESP Santiago Tarrio 100 (Ladbrokes: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.83% 0.27% -0.56%
45 AUT Lukas Nemecz 104 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.95% 0.8% 2.22% 1.42% T17 1.81
46 ESP Jorge Campillo 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.76% 1.2% 0.44% T13 3.41
47 ENG Ross McGowan 125 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.67% 0.46% -0.21% MC 3.01
48 CHI Hugo Leon 140 (888sport: 6 @ 1/5) 0.71% 0.6% 0.32% -0.27% MC
49 RSA Louis de Jager 142 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.7% 0.59% 0.83% 0.24%
50 RSA Thriston Lawrence 150 (Betfred: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.56% 1.56% 1.01% T2
51 ESP Alfredo Garcia-Heredia 150 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.56% 0.79% 0.24% T17
52 ENG Richard Mansell 150 (Bet Victor: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.56% 0.77% 0.21% WD
53 GER Sebastian Heisele 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.56% 0.3% -0.25% T74
54 NOR Espen Kofstad 150 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.56% 0.29% -0.27% T17
55 RSA Bryce Easton 151 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.66% 0.55% 1.72% 1.17% MC
56 ESP Alejandro Canizares 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.48% 0.93% 0.45% MC
57 ENG Andrew Wilson 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.48% 0.32% -0.15% MC
58 FIN Sami Valimaki 199 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.5% 0.42% 0.67% 0.25% MC
59 SCO Ewen Ferguson 200 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.42% 1.46% 1.04% T8
60 ESP Angel Hidalgo Portillo 200 (Ladbrokes: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.42% 0.72% 0.3% T17
61 ENG Dale Whitnell 200 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.42% 0.61% 0.19% MC
62 IRL Niall Kearney 200 (Betfred: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.42% 0.59% 0.17% T34
63 ENG Eddie Pepperell 200 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.42% 0.52% 0.1% MC
64 SWE Jens Dantorp 200 (Ladbrokes: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.42% 0.44% 0.02% T61
65 FRA Adrien Saddier 208 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.48% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% T51
66 ENG Garrick Porteous 208 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.48% 0.4% 0.25% -0.16% T13
67 RSA Jayden Trey Schaper 218 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.46% 0.38% 0.59% 0.21% T34
68 GER Marcel Schneider 225 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.44% 0.37% 0.3% -0.07% MC
69 ENG Ashley Chesters 237 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.42% 0.35% 0.84% 0.49% T65
70 NED Darius Van Driel 237 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.42% 0.35% 0.82% 0.47% MC
71 CZE Ondrej Lieser 237 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.42% 0.35% 0.67% 0.32% MC
72 ESP Pep Angles Ros 250 (Ladbrokes: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.33% 1.28% 0.94% MC
73 ESP Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez 250 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.33% 0.77% 0.44% T17
74 USA Chase Hanna 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.33% 0.74% 0.41% MC
75 SCO David Drysdale 250 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.33% 0.61% 0.27% T34
76 POR Ricardo Santos 250 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.33% 0.54% 0.2% T26
77 ITA Lorenzo Gagli 250 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.33% 0.43% 0.1% T34
78 BRA Adilson da Silva 250 (Ladbrokes: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.33% 0.37% 0.03%
79 WAL Rhys Enoch 250 (Ladbrokes: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.33% 0.32% -0.01% MC
80 WAL Oliver Farr 250 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.33% 0.32% -0.02% T48
81 ESP Ivan Cantero Gutierrez 250 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.33% 0.27% -0.06% MC
82 SWE Jesper Svensson 250 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.33% 0.27% -0.06% T26
83 ENG Oliver Wilson 256 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.39% 0.33% 1.02% 0.7% MC
84 CAN Aaron Cockerill 256 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.39% 0.33% 0.91% 0.58% T2
85 RSA Jacques Blaauw 265 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.38% 0.32% 1.33% 1.01% MC
86 ITA Renato Paratore 265 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.38% 0.32% 0.65% 0.33% T40
87 ENG Steven Brown 265 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.38% 0.32% 0.54% 0.22% MC
88 NED Daan Huizing 265 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.38% 0.32% 0.37% 0.06% MC
89 AUS Blake Windred 265 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.38% 0.32% 0.27% -0.04% T65
90 ENG David Coupland 265 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.38% 0.32% 0.25% -0.07% MC
91 ESP Alvaro Quiros 275 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.36% 0.3% 0.69% 0.39% WD
92 GER Max Schmitt 284 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.35% 0.29% 0.3% 0.01% T17
93 GER Nicolai Von Dellingshausen 300 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.28% 0.37% 0.1% MC
94 CHN Zhang Huilin 300 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.28% 0.27% -0.01% MC
95 MAS Gavin Green 313 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.32% 0.27% 0.53% 0.26% MC
96 SWE Jens Fahrbring 332 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.3% 0.25% 0.25% -0.01% MC
97 IRL Paul Dunne 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.24% 0.29% 0.05% T51
98 RSA Richard Sterne 379 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.26% 0.22% 0.37% 0.15% T26
99 NIR Jonathan Caldwell 379 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.26% 0.22% 0.36% 0.14% T65
100 ESP Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 379 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.26% 0.22% 0.29% 0.07% MC
101 ENG Alfie Plant 379 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.26% 0.22% 0.27% 0.05% T65
102 SWE Jesper Kennegard 400 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.21% 0.44% 0.23% MC
103 ENG Lee Slattery 474 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.21% 0.18% 0.25% 0.07% T17
104 FRA Robin Roussel 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.17% 0.54% 0.37% MC
105 SWE Joel Sjoholm 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.17% 0.44% 0.27% MC
106 RSA Haydn Porteous 500 (Ladbrokes: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.17% 0.36% 0.2% MC
107 FRA Raphael Jacquelin 500 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.17% 0.31% 0.14% MC
108 FRA Gregory Havret 500 (Ladbrokes: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.17% 0.29% 0.12% MC
109 ENG Chris Paisley 500 (QuinnBet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.17% 0.27% 0.1% T71
110 ENG Toby Tree 569 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.18% 0.15% 0.3% 0.15% WD
111 ENG Ben Evans 664 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.15% 0.13% 0.3% 0.17% T65
112 ENG Richard McEvoy 674 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.15% 0.12% 0.53% 0.41% MC
113 WAL Stuart Manley 674 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.15% 0.12% 0.27% 0.15% T8
114 FRA Joel Stalter 712 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.14% 0.12% 0.51% 0.39% MC
115 GER Bernd Ritthammer 712 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.14% 0.12% 0.29% 0.17% T71
116 NIR Cormac Sharvin 712 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.14% 0.12% 0.27% 0.15% T74
117 ENG Oliver Fisher 721 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.14% 0.12% 0.28% 0.16% MC
118 ENG Graeme Storm 892 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.11% 0.09% 0.41% 0.32% MC
119 SWE Henric Sturehed 892 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.11% 0.09% 0.27% 0.18% T65
120 ENG Matt Ford 892 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.11% 0.09% 0.25% 0.15% T61
121 ENG David Howell 949 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.11% 0.09% 0.53% 0.44% MC
122 POR Pedro Figueiredo 949 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.11% 0.09% 0.45% 0.36% MC
123 IRL Gavin Moynihan 949 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.11% 0.09% 0.3% 0.21% MC
124 KEN Greg Snow 949 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.11% 0.09% 0.27% 0.18% MC
125 ESP Carlos Pigem 1000 (Ladbrokes: 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.26% 0.18% MC
126 RSA David Wakhu 1500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.06% 0.27% 0.22% MC
127 KEN Samuel Chege 2000 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.05% 0.04% 0.27% 0.23% MC
128 KEN Dismas Indiza 2500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% 0.27% 0.24% MC
129 KEN Erick Ooko Obura 2500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% 0.27% 0.24% MC
130 ZIM Robson Chinhoi 2500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% 0.27% 0.24% MC
131 KEN Justus Madoya 2500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% 0.27% 0.24% MC
132 KEN Adel Balala 2500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% 0.27% 0.24% MC
133 RSA Danie van Tonder 0% 0% 0% 0% T51
134 ESP Pablo Martin Benavides 0% 0% 0% 0% T26
135 RSA Toto Thimba 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
136 CHN Backjun Bobby An 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
137 KEN Simon Ngigi 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
138 GER Matthias Schmid 0% 0% 0% 0% T42
139 KEN Taimur Malik 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
140 KEN Njoroge Njonge Kibugu 0% 0% 0% 0% 64
141 UGA Ronald Rugumayo 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
142 MAW Paul Chidale 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
143 KEN Michael Karanga 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
144 KEN Edwin Mudanyi 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
145 KEN Mohit Mediratta 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
146 KEN John Lejirma 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
147 KEN Daniel Nduva 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
148 KEN Dennis Maara 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 10.7 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 5.1 %

Key


Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Betfair Exchange 1 @ 1/1 21.1% 21.1%
2 Boyle Sports 8 @ 1/5 61.6% 23.1%
3 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 41.6% 24.8%
4 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 42.4% 27.9%
5 Betway 7 @ 1/5 56.7% 29.2%
6 Betfair Sportsbook 7 @ 1/5 58% 30.2%
7 Paddy Power 7 @ 1/5 58% 30.2%
8 Ladbrokes 7 @ 1/5 58.3% 30.5%
9 Coral 7 @ 1/5 58.3% 30.5%
10 QuinnBet 6 @ 1/5 46.3% 31.4%
11 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 49.3% 31.6%
12 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 50% 32.2%
13 Mansion Bet 5 @ 1/4 50% 32.2%
14 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 49.9% 34.6%
15 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 52.3% 36.8%
16 Skybet 6 @ 1/5 52.5% 37%
17 Betfred 6 @ 1/5 52.9% 37.4%
18 Sporting Index 5 @ 1/4 59.1% 40.3%
19 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 57.5% 41.5%
20 Parimatch 6 @ 1/5 57.5% 41.5%
21 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 60.9% 44.5%
22 VBet 1 @ 1/1 72.7% 72.7%