Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 23.1 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 7.0 %

Total Probability Staked: 23.7 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 14.7

Total Profit: -85.4



# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 USA Collin Morikawa 7 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 12.5% 10.04% 11.42% 1.38% T4
2 USA Xander Schauffele 9 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 10% 8.03% 4.18% -3.85% 1
3 USA Justin Thomas 11 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 8.33% 6.69% 3.78% -2.92% T22
4 NOR Viktor Hovland 12 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 7.69% 6.18% 5.26% -0.92% T14
5 NIR Rory McIlroy 14 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 6.67% 5.35% 3.88% -1.48% T4
6 JPN Hideki Matsuyama 14 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 6.67% 5.35% 2.12% -3.23% T4
7 ENG Paul Casey 16 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 5.88% 4.72% 3.74% -0.99% T4
8 USA Patrick Reed 18 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 5.26% 4.23% 2.81% -1.41% T22
9 AUS Cameron Smith 20 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.82% 2.25% -1.58% T10
10 MEX Abraham Ancer 22 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.49% 4.96% 1.47% T14 14.76
11 IRL Shane Lowry 22 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.49% 3.46% -0.03% T22 14.76
12 CHI Joaquin Niemann 22 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.49% 3.01% -0.48% T10
13 CAN Corey Conners 28 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 3.45% 2.77% 2.65% -0.12% 13 11.7
14 KOR Sungjae Im 28 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 3.45% 2.77% 2.45% -0.32% T22
15 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 30 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 3.23% 2.59% 2.39% -0.2% T16
16 AUS Marc Leishman 35 (Spreadex: 5 @ 1/4) 2.78% 2.23% 2.08% -0.15% T51
17 RSA Christiaan Bezuidenhout 40 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.96% 1.6% -0.36% T16
18 RSA Garrick Higgo 50 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.57% 2.69% 1.11% T53 6.66
19 ITA Guido Migliozzi 55 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.43% 3.38% 1.95% T32 6.06
20 KOR Siwoo Kim 55 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.43% 1.29% -0.14% T32
21 SWE Alexander Noren 66 (Spreadex: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.2% 1.46% 0.26% T16 5.07
22 VEN Jhonattan Vegas 70 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 1.41% 1.13% 2.71% 1.58% T16 4.78
23 USA Mackenzie Hughes 70 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 1.41% 1.13% 2.12% 0.99% 50 4.78
24 BEL Thomas Pieters 70 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 1.41% 1.13% 1.46% 0.33% T16 4.78
25 MEX Carlos Ortiz 80 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.99% 1.45% 0.46% T42 4.19
26 COL Sebastian Munoz 80 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.99% 1.21% 0.21% T4 (tied w/6) 4.19 +14.7
27 BEL Thomas Detry 80 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.99% 1.2% 0.21% T22 4.19
28 FRA Antoine Rozner 100 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.8% 1.51% 0.72% T45 3.36
29 NZL Ryan Fox 125 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.64% 1.86% 1.22% T42 2.7
30 SWE Henrik Norlander 125 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.64% 0.68% 0.05% T45 2.7
31 JPN Rikuya Hoshino 125 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.64% 0.66% 0.02% T38 2.7
32 AUT Matthias Schwab 125 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.64% 0.66% 0.02% T27 2.7
33 DEN Rasmus Hojgaard 150 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.53% 0.57% 0.04% T38
34 TPE C.T. Pan 175 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.46% 1.13% 0.67% 3
35 THA Jazz Janewattananond 175 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.46% 0.73% 0.27% T27
36 ESP Adria Arnaus 200 (Spreadex: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% T38
37 CHN Yuan Carl Yechun 200 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.4% 0.18% -0.22% T38
38 GER Maximilian Kieffer 250 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.32% 1.12% 0.8% T45
39 SVK Rory Sabbatini 250 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.32% 0.8% 0.48% 2
40 AUT Sepp Straka 250 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.32% 0.76% 0.44% T10
41 ESP Jorge Campillo 250 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.32% 0.67% 0.35% 59
42 IND Anirban Lahiri 250 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.32% 0.63% 0.31% T42
43 FRA Romain Langasque 250 (Spreadex: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.32% 0.62% 0.3% T35
44 ITA Renato Paratore 250 (Betway: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.32% 0.53% 0.21% T27
45 POL Adrian Meronk 300 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.27% 1.01% 0.74% T51
46 FIN Kalle Samooja 300 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.27% 0.73% 0.46% T45
47 DEN Joachim B Hansen 300 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.27% 0.48% 0.21% T27
48 FIN Sami Valimaki 300 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.27% 0.37% 0.1% T27
49 PAR Fabrizio Zanotti 350 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.23% 0.42% 0.2% T35
50 CHN Wu Ashun 350 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.23% 0.41% 0.18% T32
51 ZIM Scott Vincent 350 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.23% 0.19% -0.04% T16
52 GER Hurly Long 400 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.2% 0.16% -0.04% T35
53 PUR Rafael Campos 500 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.16% 0.44% 0.28% T57
54 MAS Gavin Green 500 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.16% 0.26% 0.1% T57
55 PHI Juvic Pagunsan 500 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.16% 0.18% 0.02% 55
56 THA Gunn Charoenkul 500 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.16% 0.18% 0.02% T45
57 NOR Kristian Krogh Johannessen 500 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.16% 0.18% 0.02% T53
58 CZE Ondrej Lieser 750 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.11% 0.18% 0.08% 60
59 IND Udayan Mane 1000 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% 0.18% 0.1% 56
60 CHI Guillermo Pereira 0% 0% 0% 0% T4

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 23.1 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 7.0 %

Key


Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 William Hill 7 @ 1/5 36.2% 14.6%
2 Redzone 5 @ 1/4 32.7% 18.8%
3 Mansion Bet 5 @ 1/4 32.9% 19%
4 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 33.1% 19.2%
5 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 33.5% 19.5%
6 Unibet 5 @ 1/4 34.2% 20.2%
7 Sporting Index 5 @ 1/4 34.2% 20.2%
8 GentingBet 5 @ 1/4 35% 20.8%
9 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 32.8% 21.4%
10 Skybet 6 @ 1/5 36.9% 25.1%
11 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 39.9% 27.8%
12 VBet 5 @ 1/5 28.1% 28.1%
13 Paddy Power 6 @ 1/5 40.9% 28.8%
14 Betway 5 @ 1/4 44% 28.9%
15 Spreadex 5 @ 1/4 44.1% 29%
16 Boyle Sports 6 @ 1/5 43% 30.7%
17 Betfred 6 @ 1/5 44.3% 31.9%
18 Bet365 3 @ 1/5 33.6% 64.7%