Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 29.6 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 10.4 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.8 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.2

Total Won: 57.2

Total Profit: -42.9

World Tour Championship

10/12/2020 - 13/12/2020

Up to date as of: one year ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 USA Patrick Reed 9 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 10% 7.71% 4.56% -3.15% T3
2 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 11 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 8.33% 6.43% 6.47% 0.04% T8
3 NOR Viktor Hovland 12 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 7.69% 5.93% 3.79% -2.15% T3
4 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 12 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 7.69% 5.93% 2.52% -3.41% T10
5 USA Collin Morikawa 14 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 6.67% 5.14% 5% -0.14% T10
6 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 16 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 5.88% 4.54% 3.53% -1% 1
7 KOR Sungjae Im 18 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 5.26% 4.06% 2.89% -1.17% T14
8 RSA Christiaan Bezuidenhout 20 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.67% 2.71% -0.96% T14
9 ENG Matt Wallace 25 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.97% 2.57% -0.4% T29
10 SCO Robert MacIntyre 25 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.97% 2.27% -0.69% T23
11 AUT Bernd Wiesberger 25 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.97% 1.66% -1.3% T36
12 ENG Andy Sullivan 30 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.49% 1.69% -0.79% T10
13 BEL Thomas Pieters 30 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.49% 1.02% -1.46% T36
14 ENG Ian Poulter 40 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.88% 2.72% 0.84% T43 8.27
15 GER Martin Kaymer 40 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.88% 2.26% 0.38% T14 8.27
16 RSA Erik van Rooyen 40 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.88% 2.01% 0.13% T14 8.27
17 FRA Victor Perez 40 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.88% 1.69% -0.19% 7
18 BEL Thomas Detry 50 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.51% 1.43% -0.08% T29
19 ENG Lee Westwood 50 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.51% 1.09% -0.42% 2
20 SWE Henrik Stenson 50 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.51% 0.87% -0.64% T36
21 RSA Wilco Nienaber 55 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.38% 1.39% 0.02% T23
22 ENG Danny Willett 55 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.38% 0.93% -0.45% T32
23 FIN Sami Valimaki 66 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.15% 1.41% 0.26% T5 (tied w/2) 5.06 +22.1
24 FRA Antoine Rozner 66 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.15% 1.28% 0.13% T36 5.06
25 ENG Tom Lewis 66 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.15% 0.88% -0.27% T23
26 RSA Dean Burmester 66 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.15% 0.68% -0.47% T14
27 ENG Aaron Rai 80 (Spreadex: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.95% 2.66% 1.71% T51 4.19
28 NED Joost Luiten 80 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.95% 1.08% 0.12% T43 4.19
29 ENG Jordan L Smith 80 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.95% 1.01% 0.06% 47 4.19
30 ITA Renato Paratore 90 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.85% 1.27% 0.42% 60 3.73
31 DEN Joachim B Hansen 90 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.85% 1.22% 0.38% T43 3.73
32 WAL Jamie Donaldson 90 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.85% 1.19% 0.34% T36 3.73
33 ENG Ross Fisher 90 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.85% 0.44% -0.41% T51
34 ENG Callum Shinkwin 100 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.76% 1.63% 0.87% T36 3.36
35 RSA Brandon Stone 100 (Spreadex: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.76% 1.42% 0.66% T23 3.36
36 ESP Adrian Otaegui 100 (Spreadex: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.76% 1.34% 0.58% T14 3.36
37 ESP Adria Arnaus 100 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.76% 1.12% 0.36% T10 3.36
38 RSA Justin Harding 100 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.76% 0.95% 0.19% T48 3.36
39 RSA Branden Grace 100 (Spreadex: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.76% 0.62% -0.15% T8
40 USA Sean Crocker 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.69% 1.56% 0.87% T14 3.06
41 ENG Marcus Armitage 125 (Spreadex: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.61% 1.83% 1.22% T61 2.7
42 USA John Catlin 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.61% 1.76% 1.15% T54 2.7
43 ENG Laurie Canter 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.61% 1.46% 0.85% T5 (tied w/2) 2.7 +35.1
44 RSA George Coetzee 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.61% 1.26% 0.65% T29 2.7
45 RSA Shaun Norris 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.61% 1% 0.39% T23 2.7
46 SCO Scott Jamieson 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.61% 0.88% 0.27% T48 2.7
47 THA Jazz Janewattananond 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.61% 0.86% 0.25% T57 2.7
48 ENG Sam Horsfield 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.61% 0.74% 0.12% 63 2.7
49 SCO Marc Warren 150 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.51% 1.01% 0.5% T32
50 NED Wil Besseling 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.51% 0.94% 0.43% T43
51 ENG Eddie Pepperell 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.51% 0.77% 0.26% T54
52 MAS Gavin Green 150 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.51% 0.56% 0.05% T57
53 SWE Marcus Kinhult 160 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.62% 0.48% 1.07% 0.59% T32
54 ENG Robert Rock 175 (Spreadex: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.44% 1.62% 1.18% T32
55 ESP Jorge Campillo 175 (Spreadex: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.44% 0.92% 0.49% T57
56 NIR Graeme McDowell 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.44% 0.72% 0.28% WD
57 SCO Connor Syme 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.44% 0.6% 0.16% T36
58 JPN Masahiro Kawamura 200 (Spreadex: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.38% 1.09% 0.71% T14
59 RSA Garrick Higgo 200 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.38% 1.01% 0.62% T14
60 FRA Benjamin Hebert 200 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.38% 0.81% 0.43% T61
61 FIN Kalle Samooja 200 (Spreadex: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.38% 0.68% 0.3% T23
62 ESP Pablo Larrazabal 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.59% 0.2% T48
63 SCO Grant Forrest 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.38% 0.52% 0.14% 64
64 FRA Matthieu Pavon 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.31% 0.42% 0.12% T54
65 DEN Rasmus Hojgaard 0% 0% 0% 0% T51

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 29.6 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 10.4 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 William Hill 7 @ 1/5 38.5% 16.2%
2 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 33.7% 19.5%
3 Skybet 7 @ 1/5 42.7% 19.9%
4 Boyle Sports 8 @ 1/5 58% 23%
5 Betfred 7 @ 1/5 47% 23.5%
6 Betfair Sportsbook 7 @ 1/5 49.1% 25.2%
7 Paddy Power 7 @ 1/5 49.1% 25.2%
8 VBet 5 @ 1/4 40.7% 25.7%
9 Spreadex 5 @ 1/4 44.1% 28.8%
10 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 42% 29.6%
11 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 45.2% 29.7%
12 Unibet 5 @ 1/4 45.2% 29.8%
13 888Sport 5 @ 1/4 45.2% 29.8%
14 GentingBet 6 @ 1/5 42.4% 30%
15 Redzone 5 @ 1/4 45.7% 30.2%
16 SportPesa 5 @ 1/4 45.7% 30.2%
17 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 45.7% 30.2%
18 Betway 6 @ 1/5 44.5% 31.9%