Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 31.4 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 14.9 %

Total Probability Staked: 23.1 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 49.5

Total Profit: -50.6

Open de Espana

03/10/2019 - 06/10/2019

Up to date as of: 4 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 ESP Jon Rahm 3 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 25% 18.95% 8.27% -10.68% 1
2 ESP Sergio Garcia 6 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 14.29% 10.83% 2.18% -8.65% T7
3 ESP Rafael Cabrera Bello 12 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 7.69% 5.83% 3.67% -2.16% 2
4 CHN Li Haotong 16 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 5.88% 4.46% 3.69% -0.77% MC
5 ITA Andrea Pavan 18 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 5.26% 3.99% 3.3% -0.69% T12
6 ESP Adria Arnaus 30 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 3.23% 2.45% 1.57% -0.88% T4
7 ENG Ross Fisher 45 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 2.17% 1.65% 0.93% -0.72% T17
8 ESP Jorge Campillo 50 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.49% 2.17% 0.68% MC 6.45
9 FIN Mikko Korhonen 50 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.49% 1.38% -0.1% T17 6.45
10 ESP Pablo Larrazabal 50 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.49% 1.22% -0.27% T33
11 SWE Alexander Bjork 55 (Betfred: 6 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.35% 2.07% 0.72% MC 5.87
12 RSA Justin Harding 66 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.13% 1.37% 0.24% T7 (tied w/5) 4.91 +7
13 AUS Wade Ormsby 66 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.13% 1.37% 0.24% MC 4.91
14 ESP Nacho Elvira 66 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.13% 0.78% -0.35% T37
15 SWE Rikard Karlberg 66 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.13% 0.68% -0.45% T33
16 SCO Calum Hill 80 (Sportingbet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.94% 1.96% 1.02% T17 4.06
17 ITA Renato Paratore 80 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.94% 1.18% 0.25% MC 4.06
18 USA Julian Suri 80 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.94% 0.67% -0.27% T55
19 ENG Lee Slattery 80 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.94% 0.65% -0.28% T37
20 FRA Alexander Levy 80 (Betfred: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.94% 0.58% -0.35% T15
21 DEN Jeff Winther 90 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.83% 1.01% 0.18% T4 (tied w/2) 3.62 +42.5
22 RSA Dean Burmester 90 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.83% 0.98% 0.15% T37 3.62
23 KOR Jeunghun Wang 90 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.83% 0.57% -0.26% MC
24 ESP Miguel A Jimenez 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.75% 1.5% 0.75% T33 3.26
25 ITA Edoardo Molinari 100 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.75% 1.14% 0.39% T23 3.26
26 WAL Jamie Donaldson 100 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.75% 1.06% 0.31% T23 3.26
27 ENG Oliver Wilson 100 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.75% 1.04% 0.29% MC 3.26
28 USA Sean Crocker 100 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.75% 0.92% 0.17% MC 3.26
29 ESP Alvaro Quiros 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.75% 0.89% 0.14% MC 3.26
30 ENG James Morrison 100 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.75% 0.75% 0% T15 3.26
31 CHN Wu Ashun 100 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.75% 0.66% -0.09% T30 3.26
32 ENG David Horsey 100 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.75% 0.55% -0.2% T45
33 ARG Andres Romero 110 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.68% 1.27% 0.59% T45 2.96
34 USA David Lipsky 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.68% 0.83% 0.15% T51 2.96
35 SWE Niklas Lemke 110 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.68% 0.8% 0.11% MC 2.96
36 AUS Jason Scrivener 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.68% 0.6% -0.08% T7 2.96
37 ITA Nino Bertasio 125 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.6% 1.43% 0.83% T23 2.61
38 ESP Adrian Otaegui 125 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% 1.2% 0.6% T61 2.61
39 RSA Zander Lombard 125 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.6% 1.08% 0.48% T7 2.61
40 CHI Hugo Leon 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.6% 1.04% 0.44% MC 2.61
41 ITA Lorenzo Gagli 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.6% 0.84% 0.24% MC 2.61
42 FRA Romain Wattel 125 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.6% 0.72% 0.12% MC 2.61
43 PAR Fabrizio Zanotti 125 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% 0.65% 0.05% T12 2.61
44 BEL Nicolas Colsaerts 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.6% 0.41% -0.19% T17
45 USA Sihwan Kim 150 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.5% 1.23% 0.73% T37
46 ESP Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 150 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.5% 1.08% 0.58% MC
47 USA John Catlin 150 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.5% 0.91% 0.41% T63
48 ESP Eduardo De la Riva 150 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% 0.48% -0.02% T37
49 USA Johannes Veerman 150 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% 0.37% -0.13% T45
50 GER Maximilian Kieffer 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% 0.34% -0.17% T49
51 USA Charlie Saxon 150 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% 0.25% -0.25% MC
52 NOR Kristoffer Reitan 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.43% 1.16% 0.73% MC
53 SCO Grant Forrest 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.43% 1.05% 0.62% T61
54 IRL Paul Dunne 175 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.43% 0.74% 0.31% MC
55 ENG Jack Singh Brar 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.43% 0.7% 0.27% T23
56 GER Bernd Ritthammer 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.38% 0.86% 0.49% T51
57 RSA Louis de Jager 200 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.38% 0.84% 0.46% WD
58 RSA Justin Walters 200 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.38% 0.75% 0.38% 68
59 JPN Masahiro Kawamura 200 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.38% 0.7% 0.32% T7
60 SCO Liam Johnston 200 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.38% 0.61% 0.23% MC
61 IND Gaganjeet Bhullar 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.38% 0.49% 0.11% MC
62 POR Ricardo Gouveia 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.38% 0.47% 0.09% MC
63 RSA Thomas Aiken 200 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.25% -0.12% T23
64 GER Max Schmitt 250 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.73% 0.43% MC
65 ESP Alejandro Canizares 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.67% 0.37% T17
66 ENG Steven Brown 250 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.62% 0.32% T37
67 ENG Ben Evans 250 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.3% 0.54% 0.24% T37
68 FRA Clement Sordet 250 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.45% 0.15% T55
69 THA Thongchai Jaidee 250 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.42% 0.11% MC
70 SCO David Drysdale 250 (Betfred: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.41% 0.1% T63
71 NOR Espen Kofstad 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% MC
72 POR Pedro Figueiredo 250 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.3% 0.39% 0.08% T33
73 IRL Gavin Moynihan 250 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.37% 0.07% MC
74 DEN Lasse Jensen 300 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.43% 0.18% MC
75 ENG Matthew Nixon 300 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.25% 0.42% 0.17% 67
76 USA Samuel Del Val 300 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.25% 0.36% 0.11% 3
77 FRA Raphael Jacquelin 300 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.25% 0% MC
78 RSA Jacques Kruyswijk 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.22% 0.58% 0.36% MC
79 ENG Max Orrin 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.22% 0.58% 0.36% MC
80 FIN Kim Koivu 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.22% 0.51% 0.29% MC
81 SWE Anton Karlsson 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.22% 0.5% 0.28% T63
82 FRA Adrien Saddier 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.22% 0.44% 0.22% MC
83 FRA Gregory Bourdy 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.22% 0.38% 0.16% MC
84 ENG Ross McGowan 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.22% 0.36% 0.15% MC
85 WAL Stuart Manley 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.22% 0.35% 0.14% MC
86 SCO Marc Warren 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.22% 0.28% 0.07% MC
87 AUS Marcus Fraser 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.22% 0.27% 0.06% MC
88 AUS Jake McLeod 350 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.22% 0.25% 0.03% T49
89 ENG Daniel Gavins 400 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.19% 0.9% 0.71% MC
90 JPN Yusaku Miyazato 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.19% 0.37% 0.18% T23
91 SWE Jens Dantorp 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.19% 0.34% 0.15% T12
92 AUS Nick Cullen 400 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.31% 0.12% MC
93 ENG Scott Gregory 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.15% 0.58% 0.43% DQ
94 GER Marcel Siem 500 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.5% 0.34% T63
95 ESP Pedro Oriol 500 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.46% 0.31% MC
96 ESP Ivan Cantero Gutierrez 500 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.42% 0.27% MC
97 NOR Kristian Krogh Johannessen 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.15% 0.42% 0.27% T51
98 AUS Deyen Lawson 500 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.4% 0.25% T55
99 ESP Scott Fernandez 500 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.39% 0.24% MC
100 ESP Emilio Cuartero Blanco 500 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.39% 0.23% MC
101 SWE Per Langfors 500 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.15% 0.38% 0.23% T37
102 KOR Jinho Choi 500 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.35% 0.19% MC
103 ESP Borja Virto Astudillo 500 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.33% 0.18% T55
104 AUS Brett Rumford 500 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.32% 0.17% T30
105 CHI Nicolas Geyger 500 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.31% 0.16% DQ
106 ITA Matteo Manassero 500 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.3% 0.14% MC
107 ESP David Borda Antonana 500 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.29% 0.14% MC
108 ESP Alfredo Garcia-Heredia 500 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.28% 0.13% T51
109 ESP Carlos del Moral 500 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.28% 0.12% MC
110 NED Koen Kouwenaar 500 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.27% 0.12% MC
111 NIR Michael Hoey 500 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.26% 0.11% MC
112 CAN Austin Connelly 500 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.26% 0.11% MC
113 ENG Chris Hanson 500 (Black Type: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.15% 0.24% 0.09% T30
114 ENG Tom Murray 600 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.13% 0.32% 0.2% MC
115 ENG David Howell 600 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.13% 0.26% 0.13% MC
116 ITA Filippo Bergamaschi 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.1% 0.58% 0.48% MC
117 DEN Nicolai Tinning 750 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.32% 0.22% MC
118 SUI Joel Girrbach 750 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.31% 0.21% T55
119 ENG Nick McCarthy 750 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% T17
120 ESP Daniel Berna Manzanares 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.1% 0.24% 0.14% MC
121 ENG Jamie Abbott 1000 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% 0.33% 0.26% MC
122 ESP Jose M Olazabal 1000 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.28% 0.21% MC
123 ESP Victor Pastor Rufian 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.28% 0.21% MC
124 USA David Cooke 1000 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.27% 0.19% MC
125 ESP Alvaro Velasco 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.26% 0.19% MC
126 ESP Jose Luis Adarraga Gomez 1000 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.26% 0.19% MC
127 NZL Michael Campbell 1000 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.25% 0.18% MC
128 ESP Jacobo Pastor Lopez 1000 (SportPesa: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% 0.25% 0.17% MC
129 ESP Javier Colomo 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% 0.2% 0.13% MC
130 IND S.S.P. Chawrasia 0% 0% 0% 0% T55
131 AUS Dimi Papadatos 0% 0% 0% 0% T23
132 ESP Carlos Aguilar 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
133 DEN Nicolai Hojgaard 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
134 ESP Antonio Hortal 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
135 SCO Ryan Lumsden 0% 0% 0% 0% T45
136 ESP Alejandro Del Rey 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
137 ESP Juan Salama 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 31.4 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 14.9 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Skybet 5 @ 1/4 44.1% 29.2%
2 Coral 7 @ 1/5 53.3% 29.4%
3 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 45.6% 30.6%
4 Ladbrokes 5 @ 1/4 46.4% 31.2%
5 Sportingbet 5 @ 1/4 46.6% 31.4%
6 Boyle Sports 7 @ 1/5 56.3% 31.9%
7 Betfair Sportsbook 7 @ 1/5 56.7% 32.1%
8 Paddy Power 7 @ 1/5 58.5% 33.7%
9 Redzone 5 @ 1/4 49.8% 34.3%
10 SportPesa 5 @ 1/4 49.9% 34.3%
11 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 49.9% 34.3%
12 Bethard 5 @ 1/4 49.9% 34.3%
13 MoPlay 5 @ 1/4 49.9% 34.3%
14 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 49.9% 34.3%
15 Black Type 5 @ 1/4 50.2% 34.7%
16 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 50.4% 37.6%
17 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 50.6% 37.8%
18 Betfred 6 @ 1/5 50.6% 37.9%
19 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 50.7% 37.9%
20 Marathon Bet 5 @ 1/4 55.4% 39.3%
21 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 54.4% 41.3%
22 Betway 5 @ 1/4 58.3% 41.9%