Betting Market Analysis for Golf in Dubai Championship
Key
Odds: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?
Implied: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.
Normalised: The golfer's actual implied probability. (They sum to 100%).
Discrepancy: THE MONEY MAKER Predicted - Implied. This shows the value in the bet, the higher the better.
Value: The value of the odds and terms on offer. More info.
Forecast Table
Up to date as of: one month ago
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| # | Player | Bookies' Odds | Implied Impl. | Normalised Norm. | Predicted Pred. | Discrepancy Discrep. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 32/1 | 4.19% | 1.12% | |
| 2 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 20/1 | 3.35% | -1.35% | |
| 3 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 18/1 | 3.23% | -2.1% | |
| 4 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 28/1 | 3.17% | -0.3% | |
| 5 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 18/1 | 2.56% | -2.77% | |
| 6 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 42/1 | 2.52% | 0.17% | |
| 7 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 15/1 | 2.44% | -3.71% | |
| 8 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 313/1 | 2.27% | 1.95% | |
| 9 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 50/1 | 2.23% | 0.28% | |
| 10 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 42/1 | 2.03% | -0.32% | |
| 11 |
| Callum Shinkwin | 40 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 2.44% | 1.95% ≈ 50/1 | 2% | 0.05% | |
| 12 |
| Andrew Wilson | 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.16% ≈ 626/1 | 1.95% | 1.79% | |
| 13 |
| Sean Crocker | 50 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.96% | 1.57% ≈ 63/1 | 1.82% | 0.25% | |
| 14 |
| Renato Paratore | 66 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.49% | 1.19% ≈ 83/1 | 1.75% | 0.55% | |
| 15 |
| Robert Rock | 66 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) | 1.49% | 1.19% ≈ 83/1 | 1.74% | 0.55% | |
| 16 |
| David Horsey | 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.99% | 0.79% ≈ 125/1 | 1.67% | 0.88% | |
| 17 |
| Adria Arnaus | 33 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 2.94% | 2.35% ≈ 42/1 | 1.63% | -0.72% | |
| 18 |
| Thomas Detry | 16 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) | 5.88% | 4.7% ≈ 20/1 | 1.6% | -3.1% | |
| 19 |
| Danny Willett | 33 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 2.94% | 2.35% ≈ 42/1 | 1.55% | -0.8% | |
| 20 |
| Marc Warren | 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.53% ≈ 188/1 | 1.55% | 1.02% | |
| 21 |
| Fabrizio Zanotti | 80 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.23% | 0.99% ≈ 100/1 | 1.48% | 0.5% | |
| 22 |
| Joakim Lagergren | 90 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.1% | 0.88% ≈ 113/1 | 1.44% | 0.56% | |
| 23 |
| Marcus Kinhult | 60 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.64% | 1.31% ≈ 75/1 | 1.29% | -0.02% | |
| 24 |
| Wil Besseling | 50 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 1.96% | 1.57% ≈ 63/1 | 1.27% | -0.3% | |
| 25 |
| Jordan L Smith | 60 (Betfred: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.64% | 1.31% ≈ 75/1 | 1.26% | -0.05% | |
| 26 |
| Kalle Samooja | 66 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 1.49% | 1.19% ≈ 83/1 | 1.26% | 0.06% | |
| 27 |
| Eddie Pepperell | 45 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) | 2.17% | 1.74% ≈ 57/1 | 1.24% | -0.5% | |
| 28 |
| Thomas Pieters | 18 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 5.26% | 4.21% ≈ 23/1 | 1.19% | -3.01% | |
| 29 |
| Craig Howie | 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.28% | 0.23% ≈ 438/1 | 1.18% | 0.95% | |
| 30 |
| Antoine Rozner | 60 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 1.64% | 1.31% ≈ 75/1 | 1.09% | -0.22% | |
| 31 |
| Jazz Janewattananond | 66 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.49% | 1.19% ≈ 83/1 | 1.08% | -0.11% | |
| 32 |
| Sam Horsfield | 50 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.96% | 1.57% ≈ 63/1 | 1.06% | -0.51% | |
| 33 |
| Steven Brown | 160 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.62% | 0.5% ≈ 200/1 | 1.01% | 0.52% | |
| 34 |
| Jeff Winther | 150 (Betfred: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.53% ≈ 188/1 | 1.01% | 0.48% | |
| 35 |
| Scott Hend | 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.33% | 0.27% ≈ 376/1 | 0.98% | 0.71% | |
| 36 |
| Jorge Campillo | 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.23% | 0.99% ≈ 100/1 | 0.97% | -0.02% | |
| 37 |
| Nicolas Colsaerts | 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.9% | 0.72% ≈ 138/1 | 0.96% | 0.24% | |
| 38 |
| Matthew Jordan | 50 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.96% | 1.57% ≈ 63/1 | 0.94% | -0.62% | |
| 39 |
| Alexander Levy | 50 (Betfred: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.96% | 1.57% ≈ 63/1 | 0.92% | -0.65% | |
| 40 |
| Oscar Lengden | 160 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.62% | 0.5% ≈ 200/1 | 0.89% | 0.4% | |
| 41 |
| Alexander Bjork | 60 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) | 1.64% | 1.31% ≈ 75/1 | 0.87% | -0.44% | |
| 42 |
| Gavin Green | 55 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.79% | 1.43% ≈ 69/1 | 0.87% | -0.56% | |
| 43 |
| Grant Forrest | 160 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.62% | 0.5% ≈ 200/1 | 0.86% | 0.37% | |
| 44 |
| David Coupland | 250 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.32% ≈ 313/1 | 0.84% | 0.52% | |
| 45 |
| Sebastian Heisele | 100 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.79% ≈ 125/1 | 0.82% | 0.02% | |
| 46 |
| Niklas Lemke | 125 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.63% ≈ 157/1 | 0.82% | 0.18% | |
| 47 |
| Joel Stalter | 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.28% | 0.23% ≈ 438/1 | 0.81% | 0.58% | |
| 48 |
| Niklas Norgaard Moller | 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.28% | 0.23% ≈ 438/1 | 0.79% | 0.56% | |
| 49 |
| Ewen Ferguson | 200 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.4% ≈ 251/1 | 0.78% | 0.38% | |
| 50 |
| Jordan Wrisdale | 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.1% | 0.08% ≈ 1252/1 | 0.78% | 0.7% | |
| 51 |
| James Morrison | 125 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.63% ≈ 157/1 | 0.78% | 0.14% | |
| 52 |
| Nicolai Von Dellingshausen | 500 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.16% ≈ 626/1 | 0.76% | 0.6% | |
| 53 |
| Rikard Karlberg | 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.4% | 0.32% ≈ 313/1 | 0.73% | 0.41% | |
| 54 |
| Emilio Cuartero Blanco | 500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.16% ≈ 626/1 | 0.71% | 0.55% | |
| 55 |
| Jens Fahrbring | 400 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 0.25% | 0.2% ≈ 501/1 | 0.71% | 0.51% | |
| 56 |
| Benjamin Hebert | 70 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 1.41% | 1.13% ≈ 88/1 | 0.71% | -0.42% | |
| 57 |
| Sebastian Soderberg | 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.4% ≈ 251/1 | 0.7% | 0.3% | |
| 58 |
| Thorbjorn Olesen | 60 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.64% | 1.31% ≈ 75/1 | 0.68% | -0.63% | |
| 59 |
| Bernd Ritthammer | 225 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.44% | 0.35% ≈ 282/1 | 0.68% | 0.33% | |
| 60 |
| Mikko Korhonen | 80 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 1.23% | 0.99% ≈ 100/1 | 0.67% | -0.32% | |
| 61 |
| Li Haotong | 66 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.49% | 1.19% ≈ 83/1 | 0.63% | -0.56% | |
| 62 |
| Jack Senior | 225 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.44% | 0.35% ≈ 282/1 | 0.62% | 0.26% | |
| 63 |
| Paul Waring | 66 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 1.49% | 1.19% ≈ 83/1 | 0.61% | -0.58% | |
| 64 |
| Ross Fisher | 80 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.23% | 0.99% ≈ 100/1 | 0.61% | -0.38% | |
| 65 |
| Marcel Schneider | 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.32% ≈ 313/1 | 0.61% | 0.29% | |
| 66 |
| Guido Migliozzi | 80 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.23% | 0.99% ≈ 100/1 | 0.6% | -0.38% | |
| 67 |
| Tapio Pulkkanen | 250 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.32% ≈ 313/1 | 0.6% | 0.28% | |
| 68 |
| Clement Sordet | 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.4% | 0.32% ≈ 313/1 | 0.58% | 0.26% | |
| 69 |
| Romain Wattel | 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.5% | 0.4% ≈ 251/1 | 0.58% | 0.18% | |
| 70 |
| Jean-Baptiste Gonnet | 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.1% | 0.08% ≈ 1252/1 | 0.56% | 0.48% | |
| 71 |
| Hurly Long | 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.28% | 0.23% ≈ 438/1 | 0.56% | 0.33% | |
| 72 |
| Maximilian Kieffer | 150 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.53% ≈ 188/1 | 0.56% | 0.03% | |
| 73 |
| Liam Johnston | 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.17% | 0.13% ≈ 751/1 | 0.55% | 0.41% | |
| 74 |
| Oliver Fisher | 350 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.28% | 0.23% ≈ 438/1 | 0.52% | 0.29% | |
| 75 |
| Matthew Baldwin | 200 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.4% ≈ 251/1 | 0.51% | 0.12% | |
| 76 |
| Robin Sciot-Siegrist | 250 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.32% ≈ 313/1 | 0.45% | 0.13% | |
| 77 |
| Steven Tiley | 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.17% | 0.13% ≈ 751/1 | 0.45% | 0.31% | |
| 78 |
| Francesco Laporta | 250 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.32% ≈ 313/1 | 0.41% | 0.09% | |
| 79 |
| Alejandro Canizares | 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.4% | 0.32% ≈ 313/1 | 0.38% | 0.06% | |
| 80 |
| Lorenzo Scalise | 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.16% ≈ 626/1 | 0.37% | 0.21% | |
| 81 |
| Ben Evans | 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.16% ≈ 626/1 | 0.35% | 0.19% | |
| 82 |
| Damien Perrier | 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.28% | 0.23% ≈ 438/1 | 0.34% | 0.12% | |
| 83 |
| Raphael Jacquelin | 1500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.07% | 0.05% ≈ 1877/1 | 0.32% | 0.26% | |
| 84 |
| Daniel Young | 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.1% | 0.08% ≈ 1252/1 | 0.32% | 0.24% | |
| 85 |
| Pedro Oriol | 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.28% | 0.23% ≈ 438/1 | 0.31% | 0.09% | |
| 86 |
| Nino Bertasio | 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.28% | 0.23% ≈ 438/1 | 0.31% | 0.08% | |
| 87 |
| Chris Wood | 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.4% | 0.32% ≈ 313/1 | 0.3% | -0.02% | |
| 88 |
| Lee Slattery | 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.16% ≈ 626/1 | 0.29% | 0.13% | |
| 89 |
| Max Schmitt | 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.17% | 0.13% ≈ 751/1 | 0.29% | 0.15% | |
| 90 |
| Gary Stal | 1000 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.1% | 0.08% ≈ 1252/1 | 0.28% | 0.2% | |
| 91 |
| Gavin Moynihan | 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.13% | 0.11% ≈ 939/1 | 0.28% | 0.17% | |
| 92 |
| Shiv Kapur | 500 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.16% ≈ 626/1 | 0.27% | 0.11% | |
| 93 |
| Euan Walker | 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.1% | 0.08% ≈ 1252/1 | 0.26% | 0.18% | |
| 94 |
| Issa Abou El Ela | 3000 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.03% | 0.03% ≈ 3755/1 | 0.25% | 0.23% | |
| 95 |
| Ahmed Skaik | 3000 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.03% | 0.03% ≈ 3755/1 | 0.25% | 0.23% | |
| 96 |
| John Axelsen | 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.16% ≈ 626/1 | 0.25% | 0.09% | |
| 97 |
| Soren Kjeldsen | 200 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.4% ≈ 251/1 | 0.25% | -0.14% | |
| 98 |
| Lucas Bjerregaard | 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.32% ≈ 313/1 | 0.25% | -0.07% | |
| 99 |
| Daniel Gavins | 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.17% | 0.13% ≈ 751/1 | 0.25% | 0.12% | |
| 100 |
| Niall Kearney | 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.17% | 0.13% ≈ 751/1 | 0.23% | 0.1% | |
| 101 |
| Robin Petersson | 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.16% ≈ 626/1 | 0.23% | 0.08% | |
| 102 |
| Stephen Gallacher | 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.33% | 0.27% ≈ 376/1 | 0.23% | -0.04% | |
| 103 |
| Michael Lorenzo-Vera | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
| 104 |
| Nicholas Fung | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
| 105 |
| Mathiam KEYSER | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
| 106 |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
| 107 |
| Alexander Knappe | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
Bookie Analysis
Overround of best available: 22.3 %
Overround of 'true value' of best available: 7.5 %
Key
Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?
True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.
| # | Bookie | Terms | Overround | True Overround |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bet365 | 5 @ 1/4 | 30.4% | 16.3% |
| 2 | Betfair Sportsbook | 7 @ 1/5 | 40.4% | 17.7% |
| 3 | Paddy Power | 7 @ 1/5 | 40.4% | 17.7% |
| 4 | Boyle Sports | 8 @ 1/5 | 53.2% | 18.8% |
| 5 | Skybet | 6 @ 1/5 | 37.9% | 25.7% |
| 6 | VBet | 5 @ 1/4 | 42.3% | 26.9% |
| 7 | William Hill | 6 @ 1/5 | 40.2% | 27.9% |
| 8 | Bet Victor | 6 @ 1/5 | 41.3% | 28.9% |
| 9 | Redzone | 5 @ 1/4 | 45.2% | 29.5% |
| 10 | SportPesa | 5 @ 1/4 | 45.2% | 29.5% |
| 11 | Sport Nation | 5 @ 1/4 | 45.2% | 29.5% |
| 12 | 10Bet | 5 @ 1/4 | 45.5% | 29.8% |
| 13 | Unibet | 6 @ 1/5 | 43.9% | 31.2% |
| 14 | 888Sport | 6 @ 1/5 | 43.9% | 31.2% |
| 15 | Betfred | 6 @ 1/5 | 45.3% | 32.5% |
| 16 | Betway | 6 @ 1/5 | 46.1% | 33.2% |
| 17 | Spreadex | 6 @ 1/5 | 47.3% | 34.4% |