Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 21.5 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 21.5 %

Total Probability Staked: 10.6 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.0

Total Won: 58.6

Total Profit: -41.4



# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 ESP Jon Rahm 7 (Bet365: 4 @ 1/4) 12.5% 10.29% 5.62% -4.67% T1
2 NIR Rory McIlroy 11 (Bet365: 4 @ 1/4) 8.33% 6.86% 4.15% -2.71% 14
3 USA Xander Schauffele 12 (Bet365: 4 @ 1/4) 7.69% 6.33% 3.99% -2.34% 3
4 USA Bryson DeChambeau 14 (Bet365: 4 @ 1/4) 6.67% 5.49% 3.68% -1.8% T11
5 USA Justin Thomas 14 (Bet365: 4 @ 1/4) 6.67% 5.49% 3.43% -2.06% T4
6 USA Dustin Johnson 14 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/5) 6.67% 5.49% 2.08% -3.41% T8
7 USA Patrick Cantlay 16 (Bet365: 4 @ 1/4) 5.88% 4.84% 5.28% 0.44% T4
8 USA Jordan Spieth 22 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.58% 4.28% 0.71% T24
9 USA Tony Finau 22 (Betfair : 5 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.58% 3.39% -0.19% T24
10 USA Brooks Koepka 22 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.58% 3.04% -0.54% 30
11 USA Collin Morikawa 25 (Bet365: 4 @ 1/4) 3.85% 3.17% 5.27% 2.11% 28
12 USA Scottie Scheffler 25 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/5) 3.85% 3.17% 3.05% -0.12% T17
13 AUS Cameron Smith 25 (Betway: 4 @ 1/4) 3.85% 3.17% 2.64% -0.52% T17
14 RSA Louis Oosthuizen 28 (Boyle Sports: 5 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.84% 5.51% 2.67% 15 26.86
15 USA Daniel Berger 28 (Bet365: 4 @ 1/4) 3.45% 2.84% 2.47% -0.37% T8
16 MEX Abraham Ancer 30 (Betfair : 5 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.66% 5.73% 3.07% T11 25.13
17 NOR Viktor Hovland 30 (Betfair : 5 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.66% 3.66% 1.01% T4 (tied w/3) 25.13 +58.6
18 JPN Hideki Matsuyama 30 (Bet365: 4 @ 1/4) 3.23% 2.66% 2.79% 0.14% T26
19 USA Sam Burns 33 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.42% 4.02% 1.6% T17 22.91
20 KOR Sungjae Im 33 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.42% 2.56% 0.14% 23
21 USA Harris English 35 (Bet365: 4 @ 1/4) 2.78% 2.29% 3.55% 1.26% T17
22 CAN Corey Conners 40 (Boyle Sports: 5 @ 1/5) 2.44% 2.01% 3.45% 1.44% T17
23 ESP Sergio Garcia 40 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/5) 2.44% 2.01% 1.9% -0.11% 10
24 USA Patrick Reed 40 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/5) 2.44% 2.01% 1.85% -0.16% T17
25 USA Jason Kokrak 45 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.79% 2.23% 0.44% T11
26 CHI Joaquin Niemann 45 (Bet365: 4 @ 1/4) 2.17% 1.79% 2.19% 0.4% 29
27 RSA Erik van Rooyen 55 (Bet365: 4 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.47% 1.93% 0.46% 16
28 USA Kevin Na 70 (Bet365: 4 @ 1/4) 1.41% 1.16% 1.88% 0.72% T1
29 USA Billy Horschel 75 (Betfair : 5 @ 1/5) 1.32% 1.08% 2.19% 1.1% 7
30 USA Stewart Cink 90 (Bet365: 4 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.9% 2.18% 1.27% T26

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 21.5 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 21.5 %

Key


Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Bet365 4 @ 1/4 26.2% 26.2%
2 Betway 4 @ 1/4 27% 27%
3 Boyle Sports 5 @ 1/5 29.6% 29.6%
4 Skybet 5 @ 1/5 30.9% 30.9%
5 Betfred 5 @ 1/5 32.5% 32.5%
6 Betfair Sportsbook 5 @ 1/5 39.7% 39.7%
7 Paddy Power 5 @ 1/5 39.7% 39.7%