Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 10.1 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: -1.6 %

Total Probability Staked: 9.5 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.0

Total Won: 0.0

Total Profit: -100



# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 NIR Rory McIlroy 6 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 14.29% 12.43% 5.02% -7.41% T6
2 USA Collin Morikawa 8.5 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 10.53% 9.16% 7.98% -1.18% 1
3 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 16 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 5.88% 5.12% 2.82% -2.3% T2
4 MEX Abraham Ancer 18 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 5.26% 4.58% 3.97% -0.61% T27
5 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 18 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 5.26% 4.58% 3.07% -1.51% T27
6 ESP Sergio Garcia 18 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 5.26% 4.58% 2.79% -1.79% T16
7 AUT Bernd Wiesberger 22 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 4.35% 3.78% 3.04% -0.75% 49
8 ENG Paul Casey 22 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.78% 2.57% -1.21% T9
9 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 22 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.78% 1.8% -1.99% T16
10 AUS Minwoo Lee 28 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 3.45% 3% 3.32% 0.32% T16 35.59
11 USA Billy Horschel 28 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 3.45% 3% 2.49% -0.51% T32
12 IRL Shane Lowry 30 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 3.23% 2.81% 3.16% 0.36% T9 33.29
13 USA Patrick Reed 30 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.81% 1.73% -1.08% T32
14 RSA Christiaan Bezuidenhout 33 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.56% 1.89% -0.67% T32
15 USA Will Zalatoris 35 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.78% 2.42% 1% -1.42% T37
16 BEL Thomas Pieters 41 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 2.38% 2.07% 1.59% -0.48% 15
17 FRA Victor Perez 50 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.71% 1.04% -0.67% T46
18 RSA Dean Burmester 50 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.71% 0.88% -0.82% T6
19 ENG Danny Willett 55 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.55% 2.3% 0.75% T39 18.43
20 AUS Lucas Herbert 55 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.55% 2.02% 0.47% T21
21 USA Sean Crocker 55 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.55% 1.98% 0.43% T39
22 DEN Nicolai Hojgaard 66 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.3% 1.8% 0.51% T4
23 SCO Robert MacIntyre 66 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 1.49% 1.3% 1.36% 0.07% T4
24 DEN Rasmus Hojgaard 66 (QuinnBet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.3% 1.09% -0.21% T27
25 RSA Garrick Higgo 66 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.3% 0.71% -0.59% T21
26 ENG Ian Poulter 70 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 1.41% 1.23% 2.29% 1.06% T6 7.27
27 ENG Laurie Canter 70 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 1.41% 1.23% 1.76% 0.54% T27
28 ENG Sam Horsfield 85 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 1.16% 1.01% 1.19% 0.18% T9
29 ENG Richard Bland 94 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 1.05% 0.92% 2.57% 1.66% 45 5.44
30 BEL Thomas Detry 94 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 1.05% 0.92% 1.79% 0.88% T21
31 GER Martin Kaymer 104 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.95% 0.83% 1.03% 0.2% T32
32 JPN Masahiro Kawamura 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.78% 1.05% 0.27% 48
33 ESP Adria Arnaus 113 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.88% 0.76% 1.31% 0.55% T9
34 FRA Antoine Rozner 123 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.81% 0.7% 1.26% 0.55% T39
35 POL Adrian Meronk 123 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.81% 0.7% 0.91% 0.21% T32
36 USA John Catlin 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.69% 1.1% 0.41% T9
37 ITA Francesco Laporta 142 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.7% 0.61% 1.87% 1.26% T46
38 DEN Joachim B Hansen 142 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.7% 0.61% 1.69% 1.08% T9
39 ENG Marcus Armitage 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.58% 1.43% 0.85% T16
40 ESP Rafael Cabrera Bello 151 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.66% 0.57% 1.44% 0.86% T39
41 ITA Guido Migliozzi 161 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.62% 0.54% 2.4% 1.86% T37
42 SCO Calum Hill 199 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.5% 0.44% 1.08% 0.65% WD
43 SWE Alexander Bjork 199 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.5% 0.44% 0.86% 0.42% T2
44 USA Johannes Veerman 218 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.46% 0.4% 2.14% 1.74% T21
45 RSA Justin Harding 227 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.44% 0.38% 1.16% 0.78% 50
46 SCO Grant Forrest 256 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.39% 0.34% 1.71% 1.37% T16
47 SWE Joakim Lagergren 265 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.38% 0.33% 0.89% 0.56% T27
48 WAL Jamie Donaldson 294 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.34% 0.29% 0.97% 0.68% T39
49 AUS Jason Scrivener 294 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.34% 0.29% 0.6% 0.31% T21
50 FIN Tapio Pulkkanen 379 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.26% 0.23% 1.17% 0.94% 52
51 DEN Jeff Winther 474 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.21% 0.18% 1.13% 0.94% T21
52 GER Maximilian Kieffer 569 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.18% 0.15% 0.98% 0.83% 44
53 ENG James Morrison 664 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.15% 0.13% 0.77% 0.64% 51

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 10.1 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: -1.6 %

Key


Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 William Hill 7 @ 1/5 35.4% 9.2%
2 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 25.9% 9.3%
3 Betfair Exchange 1 @ 1/1 10.6% 10.6%
4 Betfair Sportsbook 7 @ 1/5 41% 13.9%
5 Paddy Power 7 @ 1/5 41% 13.9%
6 Betfred 7 @ 1/5 41.5% 14.3%
7 VBet 5 @ 1/4 34.3% 16.6%
8 888Sport 5 @ 1/4 35.1% 17.2%
9 Unibet 5 @ 1/4 37.7% 19.5%
10 Bet Victor 5 @ 1/4 38.1% 19.9%
11 Parimatch 5 @ 1/4 38.1% 19.9%
12 QuinnBet 6 @ 1/5 38.2% 21.5%
13 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 40.8% 22.3%
14 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 40.8% 22.3%
15 Mansion Bet 5 @ 1/4 40.8% 22.3%
16 Skybet 6 @ 1/5 39.2% 22.4%
17 Boyle Sports 8 @ 1/5 64.8% 23.1%
18 Betway 6 @ 1/5 40.4% 23.4%
19 Sporting Index 5 @ 1/4 42.3% 23.7%
20 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 43.9% 26.5%