Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 9.4 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: -2.3 %

Total Probability Staked: 23.0 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 80.1

Total Profit: -20

DP WORLD TOUR CHAMPIONSHIP

18/11/2021 - 21/11/2021

Up to date as of: 2 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 NIR Rory McIlroy 6 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 14.29% 12.51% 5.11% -7.4% T6
2 USA Collin Morikawa 8.5 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 10.53% 9.22% 8.11% -1.1% 1
3 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 16 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 5.88% 5.15% 2.86% -2.29% T2
4 MEX Abraham Ancer 18 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 5.26% 4.61% 4.04% -0.57% T27
5 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 18 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 5.26% 4.61% 3.13% -1.48% T27
6 ESP Sergio Garcia 18 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 5.26% 4.61% 2.84% -1.77% T16
7 AUT Bernd Wiesberger 22 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 4.35% 3.81% 3.09% -0.72% 49
8 ENG Paul Casey 22 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.81% 2.61% -1.19% T9
9 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 22 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.81% 1.83% -1.98% T16
10 AUS Minwoo Lee 28 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 3.45% 3.02% 3.38% 0.36% T16 13.15
11 USA Billy Horschel 28 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 3.45% 3.02% 2.53% -0.49% T32
12 IRL Shane Lowry 30 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 3.23% 2.82% 3.22% 0.39% T9 12.3
13 USA Patrick Reed 30 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.82% 1.76% -1.07% T32
14 RSA Christiaan Bezuidenhout 33 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.57% 1.92% -0.66% T32
15 USA Will Zalatoris 35 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.78% 2.43% 1.01% -1.42% T37
16 BEL Thomas Pieters 41 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 7.7/1) 2.38% 2.08% 1.62% -0.47% 15
17 FRA Victor Perez 50 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.72% 1.06% -0.66% T46
18 RSA Dean Burmester 50 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.72% 0.9% -0.82% T6
19 ENG Danny Willett 55 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.56% 2.34% 0.78% T39 6.81
20 AUS Lucas Herbert 55 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.56% 2.06% 0.49% T21 6.81
21 USA Sean Crocker 55 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.56% 2.01% 0.45% T39 6.81
22 DEN Nicolai Hojgaard 66 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.31% 1.84% 0.53% T4 (tied w/2) 5.69 +40.4
23 SCO Robert MacIntyre 66 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 13/1) 1.49% 1.31% 1.39% 0.08% T4 (tied w/2) 5.69 +39.7
24 DEN Rasmus Hojgaard 66 (QuinnBet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.31% 1.11% -0.2% T27
25 RSA Garrick Higgo 66 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.31% 0.72% -0.59% T21
26 ENG Ian Poulter 70 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 13.5/1) 1.41% 1.23% 2.33% 1.09% T6 5.37
27 ENG Laurie Canter 70 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 13.5/1) 1.41% 1.23% 1.79% 0.56% T27 5.37
28 ENG Sam Horsfield 85 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 15.5/1) 1.16% 1.02% 1.21% 0.2% T9 4.44
29 ENG Richard Bland 94 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 16.7/1) 1.05% 0.92% 2.62% 1.7% 45 4.02
30 BEL Thomas Detry 94 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 16.7/1) 1.05% 0.92% 1.82% 0.9% T21 4.02
31 GER Martin Kaymer 104 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 17.9/1) 0.95% 0.83% 1.04% 0.21% T32 3.63
32 JPN Masahiro Kawamura 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.79% 1.07% 0.28% 48 3.44
33 ESP Adria Arnaus 113 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 19/1) 0.88% 0.77% 1.34% 0.57% T9 3.35
34 FRA Antoine Rozner 123 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 20.2/1) 0.81% 0.71% 1.28% 0.57% T39 3.08
35 POL Adrian Meronk 123 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 20.2/1) 0.81% 0.71% 0.93% 0.22% T32 3.08
36 USA John Catlin 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.69% 1.12% 0.43% T9 3.03
37 ITA Francesco Laporta 142 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 22.4/1) 0.7% 0.61% 1.91% 1.29% T46
38 ENG Marcus Armitage 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.58% 1.45% 0.87% T16
39 ESP Rafael Cabrera Bello 151 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 23.4/1) 0.66% 0.58% 1.46% 0.89% T39
40 ITA Guido Migliozzi 161 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 24.5/1) 0.62% 0.54% 2.44% 1.9% T37
41 SCO Calum Hill 199 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 28.5/1) 0.5% 0.44% 1.1% 0.66% WD
42 SWE Alexander Bjork 199 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 28.5/1) 0.5% 0.44% 0.87% 0.43% T2
43 USA Johannes Veerman 218 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 30.4/1) 0.46% 0.4% 2.17% 1.77% T21
44 RSA Justin Harding 227 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 31.3/1) 0.44% 0.38% 1.18% 0.8% 50
45 SCO Grant Forrest 256 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 39.5/1) 0.39% 0.34% 1.74% 1.4% T16
46 SWE Joakim Lagergren 265 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 40.5/1) 0.38% 0.33% 0.91% 0.58% T27
47 WAL Jamie Donaldson 294 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 43.6/1) 0.34% 0.3% 0.99% 0.69% T39
48 AUS Jason Scrivener 294 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 43.6/1) 0.34% 0.3% 0.61% 0.32% T21
49 FIN Tapio Pulkkanen 379 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 52.5/1) 0.26% 0.23% 1.19% 0.96% 52
50 DEN Jeff Winther 474 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 61.9/1) 0.21% 0.18% 1.15% 0.96% T21
51 GER Maximilian Kieffer 569 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 70.7/1) 0.18% 0.15% 1% 0.85% 44
52 ENG James Morrison 664 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 79.1/1) 0.15% 0.13% 0.79% 0.66% 51

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 9.4 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: -2.3 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 William Hill 7 @ 1/5 35.4% 9.2%
2 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 25.9% 9.3%
3 Betfair Exchange 1 @ 1/1 10.6% 10.6%
4 Betfair Sportsbook 7 @ 1/5 41% 13.9%
5 Paddy Power 7 @ 1/5 41% 13.9%
6 Betfred 7 @ 1/5 41.5% 14.3%
7 VBet 5 @ 1/4 34.3% 16.6%
8 888Sport 5 @ 1/4 35.1% 17.2%
9 Unibet 5 @ 1/4 37.7% 19.5%
10 Bet Victor 5 @ 1/4 38.1% 19.9%
11 Parimatch 5 @ 1/4 38.1% 19.9%
12 QuinnBet 6 @ 1/5 38.2% 21.5%
13 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 40.8% 22.3%
14 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 40.8% 22.3%
15 Mansion Bet 5 @ 1/4 40.8% 22.3%
16 Skybet 6 @ 1/5 39.2% 22.4%
17 Boyle Sports 8 @ 1/5 64.8% 23.1%
18 Betway 6 @ 1/5 40.4% 23.4%
19 Sporting Index 5 @ 1/4 42.3% 23.7%
20 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 43.9% 26.5%