Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 40.6 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 23.6 %

Total Probability Staked: 23.8 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 31.6

Total Profit: -68.5

Portugal Masters

10/09/2020 - 13/09/2020

Up to date as of: 3 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 5 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 16.67% 11.78% 1.21% -10.57% T3
2 RSA George Coetzee 14 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 6.67% 4.71% 0.3% -4.41% 1
3 RSA Wilco Nienaber 25 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 3.85% 2.72% 2.26% -0.46% T14
4 NZL Ryan Fox 25 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 3.85% 2.72% 1.91% -0.81% T32
5 CHN Li Haotong 25 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.72% 1.53% -1.19% MC
6 ESP Jorge Campillo 28 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.44% 2.42% -0.02% T8 10.27
7 AUS Jason Scrivener 28 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.44% 1% -1.44% T8
8 SWE Marcus Kinhult 28 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.44% 0.73% -1.71% MC
9 NED Joost Luiten 28 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 3.45% 2.44% 0.67% -1.77% MC
10 FRA Benjamin Hebert 33 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.08% 1.58% -0.5% MC
11 ENG Paul Waring 33 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.94% 2.08% 0.9% -1.18% T32
12 DEN Thorbjorn Olesen 40 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.72% 0.73% -0.99% T58
13 ITA Guido Migliozzi 40 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.72% 0.62% -1.11% T36
14 ENG Jordan L Smith 40 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.72% 0.57% -1.16% T36
15 ENG Chris Paisley 45 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.54% 1.73% 0.19% MC 6.47
16 WAL Jamie Donaldson 45 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.54% 1.4% -0.14% T44
17 RSA Brandon Stone 45 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.54% 0.95% -0.58% T14
18 USA John Catlin 50 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.39% 2.85% 1.46% T8 5.84
19 AUS Wade Ormsby 50 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.39% 2.3% 0.91% MC 5.84
20 FRA Antoine Rozner 50 (Bet Victor: 6 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.39% 1.38% -0.01% T36 5.84
21 ENG Ross Fisher 50 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.39% 0.58% -0.81% MC
22 ENG Steven Brown 55 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.26% 1.76% 0.49% T64 5.32
23 ENG Matthew Jordan 55 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.26% 1.63% 0.37% T14 5.32
24 GER Sebastian Heisele 55 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.26% 1.21% -0.05% MC
25 ITA Lorenzo Gagli 55 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.26% 0.78% -0.49% MC
26 NED Wil Besseling 60 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.16% 1.36% 0.2% T14 4.88
27 SCO Calum Hill 66 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.06% 2.07% 1.01% MC 4.45
28 ENG Laurie Canter 66 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.06% 1.86% 0.81% 2 4.45 +31.6
29 ENG Robert Rock 66 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.06% 1.2% 0.14% MC 4.45
30 SWE Sebastian Soderberg 66 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.06% 1.01% -0.05% T27
31 ESP Pablo Larrazabal 66 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.06% 1% -0.06% T58
32 USA Johannes Veerman 70 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.41% 1% 1.06% 0.06% T8 4.2
33 RSA Justin Walters 75 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.32% 0.93% 1.11% 0.18% MC 3.92
34 SWE Alexander Bjork 75 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.32% 0.93% 1.1% 0.17% T24 3.92
35 ENG Jack Senior 75 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.32% 0.93% 0.51% -0.42% T14
36 ENG Oliver Fisher 80 (GentingBet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.87% 1.89% 1.02% MC 3.68
37 ENG Marcus Armitage 80 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.87% 1.71% 0.84% T50 3.68
38 FRA Matthieu Pavon 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.87% 1.48% 0.61% MC 3.68
39 DEN Lucas Bjerregaard 80 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.87% 0.33% -0.54% T27
40 GER Maximilian Kieffer 90 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.78% 1.09% 0.31% MC 3.28
41 ZIM Scott Vincent 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.7% 0.84% 0.14% T8 2.95
42 ESP Alvaro Quiros 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.7% 0.73% 0.03% T44 2.95
43 ENG Matthew Southgate 100 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.7% 0.59% -0.11% T64
44 POL Adrian Meronk 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.7% 0.58% -0.12% T36
45 AUS Jake McLeod 100 (Betfred: 6 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.7% 0.38% -0.32% MC
46 ESP Nacho Elvira 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.7% 0.36% -0.34% MC
47 CHN Wu Ashun 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.7% 0.33% -0.37% MC
48 FRA Alexander Levy 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.7% 0.32% -0.38% WD
49 SWE Joakim Lagergren 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.64% 0.49% -0.14% T3
50 USA Julian Suri 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.64% 0.38% -0.26% T50
51 FIN Kalle Samooja 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.64% 0.34% -0.3% MC
52 ENG Richard Bland 125 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 1.11% 0.55% T27 2.37
53 FRA Adrien Saddier 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.56% 0.59% 0.03% T32 2.37
54 JPN Masahiro Kawamura 140 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.71% 0.5% 0.64% 0.14% 5
55 ENG David Coupland 150 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 2.14% 1.67% T67
56 ESP Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.47% 0.34% -0.12% T14
57 POR Ricardo Gouveia 150 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.31% -0.15% T36
58 SWE Jens Fahrbring 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.4% 1.25% 0.85% MC
59 NED Darius Van Driel 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.4% 1.21% 0.81% MC
60 SWE Rikard Karlberg 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.4% 0.58% 0.18% T14
61 NIR Cormac Sharvin 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.4% 0.43% 0.02% MC
62 ENG Dale Whitnell 200 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 1.68% 1.33% T24
63 ENG Ben Stow 200 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 1.01% 0.66% T27
64 FRA Robin Roussel 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.35% 0.95% 0.6% MC
65 FRA Robin Sciot-Siegrist 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.35% 0.7% 0.35% MC
66 FRA Julien Guerrier 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.35% 0.64% 0.28% T8
67 FRA Joel Stalter 200 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.63% 0.28% MC
68 DEN Martin Leth Simonsen 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.35% 0.62% 0.27% T24
69 ESP Alejandro Canizares 200 (Bet Victor: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.38% 0.03% T32
70 RSA Jacques Kruyswijk 200 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.36% 0.01% MC
71 ITA Andrea Pavan 200 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.36% 0% MC
72 ITA Nino Bertasio 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.35% 0.33% -0.02% T50
73 SCO Grant Forrest 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.35% 0.33% -0.03% T14
74 SCO Stephen Gallacher 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.35% 0.32% -0.04% T58
75 ESP Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.28% 1.33% 1.05% T6
76 ITA Francesco Laporta 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.28% 0.52% 0.24% T50
77 SWE Joel Sjoholm 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.28% 0.45% 0.17% MC
78 USA Sihwan Kim 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.28% 0.38% 0.1% T27
79 FRA Damien Perrier 250 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.35% 0.07% MC
80 ENG Toby Tree 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.28% 0.34% 0.06% T36
81 POR Jose-Filipe Lima 250 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.3% 0.02% MC
82 NED Daan Huizing 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.28% 0.27% -0.01% MC
83 RSA Bryce Easton 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.23% 0.53% 0.29% T50
84 SCO Ewen Ferguson 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.23% 0.48% 0.25% MC
85 NIR Jonathan Caldwell 300 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.44% 0.2% T50
86 ENG Richard McEvoy 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.23% 0.38% 0.14% MC
87 IND Shubhankar Sharma 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.23% 0.38% 0.14% T44
88 SCO David Drysdale 300 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.35% 0.11% 70
89 ESP Eduardo De la Riva 300 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.32% 0.08% MC
90 FRA Gregory Havret 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.23% 0.31% 0.08% MC
91 ENG Will Enefer 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.23% 0.3% 0.07% MC
92 GER Marcel Schneider 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.2% 1.65% 1.45% T44
93 SCO Liam Johnston 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.2% 0.76% 0.55% T14
94 RSA Haydn Porteous 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.2% 0.42% 0.22% MC
95 FIN Tapio Pulkkanen 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.2% 0.38% 0.18% T36
96 POR Ricardo Santos 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.2% 0.34% 0.14% T50
97 AUS Maverick Antcliff 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.2% 0.34% 0.14% MC
98 ARG Andres Romero 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.2% 0.33% 0.13% T50
99 FRA Mathieu Fenasse 400 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.8% 0.63% MC
100 ENG Ben Evans 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.18% 0.67% 0.49% T14
101 ESP Carlos Pigem 400 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.53% 0.35% T67
102 DEN Thomas Bjorn 400 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.38% 0.2% MC
103 SCO David Law 400 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.38% 0.2% T58
104 DEN Benjamin Henry Poke 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.18% 0.38% 0.2% MC
105 SWE Niklas Lemke 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.18% 0.36% 0.18% T6
106 SWE Peter Hanson 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.18% 0.33% 0.15% MC
107 FRA Jean-Baptiste Gonnet 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 1.23% 1.09% MC
108 GER Nicolai Von Dellingshausen 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.14% 0.93% 0.79% MC
109 NED Lars Van Meijel 500 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.53% 0.39% T58
110 ENG Oliver Wilson 500 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.4% 0.26% MC
111 ENG Matthew Baldwin 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.14% 0.39% 0.25% MC
112 WAL Rhys Enoch 500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.38% 0.24% T44
113 SWE Anton Karlsson 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.14% 0.38% 0.24% MC
114 IMN Tom Gandy 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.14% 0.36% 0.22% T36
115 RSA Jbe Kruger 500 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.34% 0.2% MC
116 SWE Kristoffer Broberg 500 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.33% 0.19% MC
117 ENG Steve Webster 500 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.3% 0.16% MC
118 IRL Gavin Moynihan 600 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.12% 0.44% 0.32% MC
119 GER Max Schmitt 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.12% 0.35% 0.23% T58
120 POR Pedro Figueiredo 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.12% 0.34% 0.23% MC
121 FRA Raphael Jacquelin 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.12% 0.31% 0.2% MC
122 ENG Jonathan Thomson 650 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.15% 0.11% 0.29% 0.18% MC
123 ENG Garrick Porteous 750 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.09% 0.68% 0.58% T44
124 AUS Zach Murray 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.07% 0.34% 0.27% MC
125 POR Tomas Silva 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.3% 0.23% MC
126 ESP Emilio Cuartero Blanco 1250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.08% 0.06% 0.38% 0.32% 69
127 ENG David Howell 1250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.08% 0.06% 0.34% 0.29% MC
128 POR Vitor Lopes 1250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.08% 0.06% 0.3% 0.24% MC
129 ESP Jose M Olazabal 1500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.05% 0.33% 0.28% MC
130 SWE Miguel Gaspar 1500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.05% 0.3% 0.25% MC
131 POR Tomas Guimaraes Bessa 1500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.05% 0.3% 0.25% T64
132 POR Pedro Lencart Silva 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 40.6 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 23.6 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 46.2% 30.5%
2 Boyle Sports 7 @ 1/5 62.1% 35.9%
3 VBet 5 @ 1/4 53.4% 36.9%
4 Betfair Sportsbook 7 @ 1/5 63.5% 37.1%
5 Paddy Power 7 @ 1/5 63.5% 37.1%
6 Skybet 6 @ 1/5 50.9% 37.7%
7 GentingBet 6 @ 1/5 56% 42.3%
8 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 56.5% 42.7%
9 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 56.5% 42.8%
10 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 61% 43.7%
11 Betfred 6 @ 1/5 58.9% 45%
12 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 62.1% 47.8%
13 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 62.1% 47.8%
14 Betway 6 @ 1/5 62.3% 48%
15 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 63.6% 49.2%
16 Redzone 5 @ 1/4 90% 70.6%