Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 15.7 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 15.7 %

Total Probability Staked: 16.5 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.0

Total Won: 333.2

Total Profit: +233.2



# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 ESP Jon Rahm 4 (Bet365: 4 @ 1/4) 20% 17.28% 13.45% -3.84% 2
2 USA Justin Thomas 7 (Betfair : 5 @ 1/5) 12.5% 10.8% 9.4% -1.41% T5
3 USA Xander Schauffele 9 (Bet365: 4 @ 1/4) 10% 8.64% 6.39% -2.26% T10
4 USA Patrick Cantlay 9 (Skybet: 4 @ 1/4) 10% 8.64% 6.13% -2.51% 17
5 USA Tiger Woods 10 (Betfair : 5 @ 1/5) 9.09% 7.86% 5.04% -2.82% 4
6 USA Webb Simpson 12 (Bet365: 4 @ 1/4) 7.69% 6.65% 8.39% 1.74% T10
7 USA Rickie Fowler 14 (Bet365: 4 @ 1/4) 6.67% 5.76% 2.84% -2.92% 9
8 ENG Justin Rose 16 (Bet365: 4 @ 1/4) 5.88% 5.08% 6.47% 1.39% T5
9 USA Patrick Reed 18 (Bet365: 4 @ 1/4) 5.26% 4.55% 7.9% 3.35% 3
10 USA Gary Woodland 20 (Skybet: 4 @ 1/4) 4.76% 4.12% 4.95% 0.84% T7
11 USA Bryson DeChambeau 20 (Skybet: 4 @ 1/4) 4.76% 4.12% 4.55% 0.43% 15
12 USA Tony Finau 25 (Skybet: 4 @ 1/4) 3.85% 3.32% 2.88% -0.45% T10 20.15
13 USA Jordan Spieth 28 (Bet365: 4 @ 1/4) 3.45% 2.98% 3.9% 0.92% 16 18.07
14 USA Matt Kuchar 30 (Bet365: 4 @ 1/4) 3.23% 2.79% 3.88% 1.09% 14 16.9
15 SWE Henrik Stenson 33 (Skybet: 4 @ 1/4) 2.94% 2.54% 5.21% 2.67% 1 15.41 +333.2
16 USA Bubba Watson 45 (Skybet: 4 @ 1/4) 2.17% 1.88% 1.27% -0.61% 18 11.39
17 USA Kevin Kisner 50 (Skybet: 4 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.69% 3.05% 1.36% T7 10.28
18 USA Chez Reavie 66 (Skybet: 4 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.29% 4.31% 3.02% 13 7.82

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 15.7 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 15.7 %

Key


Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Skybet 4 @ 1/4 19% 19%
2 Bet365 4 @ 1/4 22.8% 22.8%
3 William Hill 4 @ 1/4 23.2% 23.2%
4 Ladbrokes 4 @ 1/4 24.2% 24.2%
5 Coral 4 @ 1/4 24.2% 24.2%
6 Sportingbet 4 @ 1/4 24.2% 24.2%
7 Bet Victor 4 @ 1/4 25% 25%
8 Betway 4 @ 1/4 25.1% 25.1%
9 Betfair Sportsbook 5 @ 1/5 25.3% 25.3%
10 Boyle Sports 5 @ 1/5 26.9% 26.9%
11 Paddy Power 5 @ 1/5 27.5% 27.5%
12 SportPesa 4 @ 1/4 31.2% 31.2%
13 10Bet 4 @ 1/4 31.2% 31.2%
14 MoPlay 4 @ 1/4 31.2% 31.2%
15 Sport Nation 4 @ 1/4 31.2% 31.2%
16 Betfred 5 @ 1/5 31.3% 31.3%
17 Unibet 4 @ 1/4 31.9% 31.9%
18 VBet 4 @ 1/5 21.8% 33.9%
19 Marathon Bet 4 @ 1/5 28.1% 40.8%