Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 7.4 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 3.4 %

Total Probability Staked: 33.0 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 216.0

Total Profit: +115.9



# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 USA Justin Thomas 8 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 11.11% 9.8% 4.52% -5.28% T5
2 ESP Jon Rahm 9 (William Hill: 6 @ 1/5) 10% 8.82% 2.46% -6.36% 2
3 USA Collin Morikawa 11 (William Hill: 6 @ 1/5) 8.33% 7.35% 7.16% -0.19% T5
4 USA Xander Schauffele 12 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 7.69% 6.78% 3.93% -2.85% 12
5 USA Bryson DeChambeau 12 (William Hill: 6 @ 1/5) 7.69% 6.78% 2.26% -4.53% T25
6 NOR Viktor Hovland 14 (William Hill: 6 @ 1/5) 6.67% 5.88% 6.81% 0.93% T30
7 USA Patrick Cantlay 14 (William Hill: 6 @ 1/5) 6.67% 5.88% 2.56% -3.32% 4
8 USA Sam Burns 22 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 4.35% 3.83% 4.62% 0.79% T19 7.61
9 AUS Cameron Smith 22 (William Hill: 6 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.83% 4.53% 0.69% 1 15.21 +216
10 USA Daniel Berger 22 (William Hill: 6 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.83% 3.15% -0.68% T5
11 USA Tony Finau 25 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 3.85% 3.39% 3.61% 0.22% T19 13.46
12 KOR Sungjae Im 25 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 3.85% 3.39% 3.51% 0.12% T8 13.46
13 USA Jordan Spieth 26 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 3.7% 3.27% 3.08% -0.19% T21
14 USA Patrick Reed 28 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/5) 3.45% 3.04% 2.92% -0.12% T15 12.06
15 JPN Hideki Matsuyama 33 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 2.94% 2.59% 3.03% 0.44% T13 5.15
16 MEX Abraham Ancer 41 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 2.38% 2.1% 4.55% 2.45% T35 4.17
17 USA Brooks Koepka 41 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 2.38% 2.1% 1.59% -0.51% T28
18 USA Talor Gooch 45 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.92% 3.44% 1.52% T15 7.61
19 AUS Marc Leishman 45 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 2.17% 1.92% 1.58% -0.34% T10
20 USA Jason Kokrak 47 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 2.08% 1.84% 3.88% 2.04% 38 3.65
21 USA Harris English 51 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 1.92% 1.7% 1.99% 0.3% T30 3.37
22 IRL Seamus Power 75 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/5) 1.32% 1.16% 1.36% 0.2% T15 4.61
23 USA Billy Horschel 89 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 1.11% 0.98% 3.66% 2.68% T23 1.95
24 USA Kevin Na 94 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 1.05% 0.93% 2.94% 2.01% T13 1.85
25 USA Max Homa 94 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 1.05% 0.93% 1.55% 0.63% T15 1.85
26 AUS Lucas Herbert 125 (Sporting Index: 4 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.7% 1.16% 0.46% 37 2.78
27 KOR Siwoo Kim 132 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.75% 0.66% 1.22% 0.56% T23 1.32
28 KOR Kyounghoon Lee 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.58% 2.59% 2% T33
29 AUS Cameron Davis 161 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.62% 0.54% 0.69% 0.14% T10
30 RSA Garrick Higgo 170 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.58% 0.52% 0.54% 0.03% T25
31 RSA Erik van Rooyen 189 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.53% 0.46% 1.87% 1.41% T25
32 AUS Matt Jones 189 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.53% 0.46% 0.77% 0.3% 3
33 USA Joel Dahmen 199 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.5% 0.44% 2% 1.56% T28
34 USA Phil Mickelson 199 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.5% 0.44% 1.11% 0.67% T30
35 RSA Branden Grace 256 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.39% 0.34% 0.92% 0.58% T33
36 USA Kevin Kisner 275 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.36% 0.32% 0.79% 0.47% T8
37 USA Stewart Cink 341 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.29% 0.26% 0.81% 0.55% T21
38 USA Lucas Glover 379 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.26% 0.23% 0.84% 0.61% T35

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 7.4 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 3.4 %

Key


Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Betfair Exchange 1 @ 1/1 9.3% 9.3%
2 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 30.5% 13.3%
3 Skybet 6 @ 1/5 34.8% 17.1%
4 Betfair Sportsbook 6 @ 1/5 35% 17.2%
5 Paddy Power 6 @ 1/5 35% 17.2%
6 VBet 5 @ 1/5 22.9% 17.3%
7 Betway 6 @ 1/5 35.3% 17.5%
8 Bet365 5 @ 1/5 23.6% 17.9%
9 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 36.7% 18.7%
10 Betfred 6 @ 1/5 38.9% 20.7%
11 Boyle Sports 6 @ 1/5 39.4% 21%
12 Ladbrokes 6 @ 1/5 40.6% 22.1%
13 Coral 6 @ 1/5 40.6% 22.1%
14 Bet Victor 5 @ 1/5 28.5% 22.6%
15 Parimatch 5 @ 1/5 28.5% 22.6%
16 Sporting Index 4 @ 1/4 29.5% 25%
17 10Bet 1 @ 1/1 30.5% 30.5%
18 Mansion Bet 1 @ 1/1 30.5% 30.5%
19 Sport Nation 1 @ 1/1 30.8% 30.8%
20 Spreadex 5 @ 1/5 37% 30.8%
21 Unibet 5 @ 1/5 43.2% 36.7%