Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 37.1 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 14.1 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.2 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 227.8

Total Profit: +127.7

Dubai Duty Free Irish Open

24/09/2020 - 27/09/2020

Up to date as of: 3 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 IRL Shane Lowry 7 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 12.5% 8.77% 1.54% -7.23% MC
2 RSA George Coetzee 11 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 8.33% 5.84% 4.35% -1.49% T48
3 NZL Ryan Fox 22 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.05% 1.33% -1.72% MC
4 RSA Wilco Nienaber 25 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.7% 1.79% -0.9% T48
5 AUS Jason Scrivener 25 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.7% 1.63% -1.07% T25
6 SCO Connor Syme 25 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.7% 1.27% -1.43% MC
7 RSA Garrick Higgo 28 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.42% 3.23% 0.81% MC 10.89
8 AUS Lucas Herbert 28 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.42% 1.13% -1.29% T7
9 ENG Laurie Canter 33 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.06% 3.84% 1.77% T14 9.29
10 SWE Joakim Lagergren 33 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.06% 2.32% 0.26% T5 (tied w/2) 9.29 +35.3
11 NED Wil Besseling 33 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.06% 1.83% -0.24% T54
12 ENG Aaron Rai 33 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.06% 1.06% -1% 2
13 NED Joost Luiten 33 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.06% 0.83% -1.23% T11
14 USA John Catlin 40 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.71% 3.68% 1.97% 1 7.7 +192.5
15 USA Johannes Veerman 40 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.71% 2.12% 0.41% WD 7.7
16 RSA Justin Harding 40 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.71% 1.4% -0.31% T11
17 ENG Jack Senior 40 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.71% 0.97% -0.74% T28
18 FIN Mikko Korhonen 40 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.71% 0.95% -0.76% MC
19 SWE Marcus Kinhult 45 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.52% 0.82% -0.71% MC
20 SCO Calum Hill 50 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.38% 1.71% 0.34% T28 6.19
21 SWE Sebastian Soderberg 50 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.38% 1.47% 0.09% WD
22 ENG Jordan L Smith 50 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.38% 0.57% -0.81% T7
23 FRA Antoine Rozner 55 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.25% 1.48% 0.23% T28 5.64
24 USA Sean Crocker 55 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.25% 0.73% -0.53% T39
25 SCO Richie Ramsay 55 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.25% 0.46% -0.79% T33
26 SCO Scott Jamieson 60 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.15% 1.62% 0.47% T54 5.18
27 THA Jazz Janewattananond 60 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.15% 0.41% -0.74% T3
28 RSA Dean Burmester 66 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.05% 1.16% 0.12% 22
29 FRA Clement Sordet 66 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.05% 0.76% -0.28% T28
30 ENG David Horsey 66 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.05% 0.65% -0.4% MC
31 AUS Minwoo Lee 70 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.41% 0.99% 1.05% 0.07% MC
32 ENG Robert Rock 80 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.87% 1.66% 0.79% T25 3.9
33 ENG Steven Brown 80 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.87% 1.37% 0.51% T39 3.9
34 JPN Masahiro Kawamura 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.87% 1.36% 0.5% T14 3.9
35 SCO Craig Howie 80 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.87% 1.11% 0.24% T25 3.9
36 ENG Callum Shinkwin 80 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.87% 0.98% 0.11% MC
37 DEN Lucas Bjerregaard 80 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.87% 0.35% -0.52% T51
38 ESP Adria Arnaus 80 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.87% 0.29% -0.58% T23
39 ENG Marcus Armitage 90 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.77% 1.34% 0.57% T23 3.47
40 BEL Nicolas Colsaerts 90 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.77% 0.85% 0.08% MC
41 AUS Wade Ormsby 90 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.77% 0.67% -0.1% MC
42 USA Julian Suri 90 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.77% 0.33% -0.44% MC
43 ENG Richard Bland 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.69% 0.86% 0.17% T14 3.13
44 DEN Jeff Winther 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.69% 0.84% 0.15% MC 3.13
45 ENG Matthew Southgate 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.69% 0.65% -0.05% T33
46 NIR Cormac Sharvin 100 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.69% 0.51% -0.18% MC
47 DEN Soren Kjeldsen 100 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.69% 0.3% -0.4% MC
48 IRL Padraig Harrington 100 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.69% 0.29% -0.41% MC
49 FRA Julien Guerrier 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.63% 0.76% 0.12% T48 2.85
50 FRA Robin Sciot-Siegrist 110 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.63% 0.41% -0.22% T39
51 PAR Fabrizio Zanotti 110 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.63% 0.29% -0.35% T7
52 SCO Marc Warren 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 1.59% 1.03% MC 2.51
53 ENG James Morrison 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.56% 0.93% 0.37% T60 2.51
54 NED Darius Van Driel 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 0.93% 0.37% T60 2.51
55 ENG Ashley Chesters 125 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 0.86% 0.3% MC 2.51
56 POL Adrian Meronk 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 0.63% 0.07% 10
57 CAN Aaron Cockerill 125 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 0.46% -0.1% T58
58 ESP Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez 150 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.46% 1.72% 1.26% MC
59 ENG David Coupland 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.46% 1.48% 1.02% T39
60 SWE Rikard Karlberg 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.46% 0.9% 0.44% T14
61 ENG Ben Stow 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.46% 0.74% 0.28% T14
62 FRA Damien Perrier 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.46% 0.39% -0.07% MC
63 ESP Nacho Elvira 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.46% 0.37% -0.1% T39
64 ESP Alejandro Canizares 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.46% 0.33% -0.13% T35
65 AUS Jake McLeod 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.46% 0.33% -0.13% T39
66 CHN Wu Ashun 150 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.46% 0.32% -0.14% MC
67 ENG Dale Whitnell 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.4% 1.41% 1.01% T39
68 SWE Niklas Lemke 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.4% 0.84% 0.44% T54
69 DEN Martin Leth Simonsen 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.4% 0.56% 0.16% T35
70 NIR Jonathan Caldwell 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.4% 0.54% 0.14% T54
71 AUS Maverick Antcliff 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.35% 0.97% 0.62% T3
72 ENG Oliver Fisher 200 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.71% 0.37% MC
73 ITA Edoardo Molinari 200 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.43% 0.08% MC
74 ENG Lee Slattery 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.34% -0.01% MC
75 NED Daan Huizing 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.31% -0.04% T14
76 ITA Francesco Laporta 200 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.3% -0.05% MC
77 SCO Stephen Gallacher 200 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.3% -0.05% T51
78 IND Shubhankar Sharma 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.28% -0.07% T64
79 FRA Joel Stalter 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.85% 0.57% 68
80 SWE Oscar Lengden 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.28% 0.76% 0.49% T5
81 FRA Robin Roussel 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.7% 0.42% MC
82 SCO Ewen Ferguson 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.69% 0.41% T14
83 ITA Andrea Pavan 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.37% 0.09% MC
84 FRA Romain Wattel 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.34% 0.06% T60
85 SCO David Law 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.33% 0.06% T35
86 AUS Scott Hend 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.33% 0.05% T11
87 RSA Haydn Porteous 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.33% 0.05% MC
88 USA Tyler Koivisto 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.28% 0.32% 0.04% MC
89 SCO David Drysdale 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.3% 0.02% MC
90 ENG Toby Tree 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.28% 0.29% 0.01% T14
91 KOR Yikeun Chang 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.29% 0.01% WD
92 ENG Graeme Storm 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 1.17% 0.93% MC
93 SCO Liam Johnston 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.54% 0.3% MC
94 IRL Paul Dunne 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.39% 0.16% MC
95 ENG Richard McEvoy 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.33% 0.1% T69
96 WAL Oliver Farr 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.2% 1.02% 0.83% T39
97 GER Bernd Ritthammer 350 (888sport: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.2% 0.86% 0.66% MC
98 ESP Carlos Pigem 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.2% 0.55% 0.35% MC
99 ENG Garrick Porteous 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.17% 0.44% 0.26% T39
100 NED Lars Van Meijel 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.17% 0.36% 0.19% T35
101 DEN Benjamin Henry Poke 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.17% 0.33% 0.16% MC
102 IND Gaganjeet Bhullar 400 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.17% 0.29% 0.11% MC
103 FRA Mathieu Fenasse 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.6% 0.46% T51
104 ENG Matthew Baldwin 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.37% 0.23% MC
105 GER Max Schmitt 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.35% 0.21% T58
106 ENG Ross McGowan 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.14% 0.35% 0.21% 67
107 IRL Gavin Moynihan 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.35% 0.21% MC
108 SCO Daniel Young 500 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.31% 0.17% MC
109 RSA Jbe Kruger 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.31% 0.17% MC
110 IRL Colm Moriarty 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.29% 0.15% T69
111 NOR Kristoffer Reitan 600 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.12% 0.34% 0.22% MC
112 IRL James Sugrue 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.12% 0.32% 0.2% 66
113 ENG Steven Tiley 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.09% 0.29% 0.2% MC
114 AUS Zach Murray 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.07% 0.31% 0.24% MC
115 NIR Tom McKibbin 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.29% 0.22% MC
116 NZL Michael Campbell 1500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.05% 0.42% 0.37% MC
117 ENG David Howell 1500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.05% 0.29% 0.25% MC
118 IRL Damien McGrane 1500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.05% 0.29% 0.24% T64
119 IRL Mark Power 0% 0% 0% 0% T60

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 37.1 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 14.1 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Skybet 8 @ 1/5 60.9% 24.8%
2 Betfair Sportsbook 8 @ 1/5 65.9% 28.6%
3 Paddy Power 8 @ 1/5 65.9% 28.6%
4 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 44.5% 28.9%
5 Boyle Sports 8 @ 1/5 71.4% 32.8%
6 Betfred 7 @ 1/5 59.5% 33.6%
7 VBet 5 @ 1/4 55.6% 38.8%
8 Betway 7 @ 1/5 66.2% 39.3%
9 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 53.8% 40.2%
10 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 56.8% 43%
11 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 56.8% 43%
12 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 56.9% 43.1%
13 Redzone 5 @ 1/4 60.5% 43.2%
14 SportPesa 5 @ 1/4 60.5% 43.2%
15 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 60.5% 43.2%
16 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 60.5% 43.2%
17 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 61.1% 46.9%
18 GentingBet 6 @ 1/5 63.6% 49.2%