Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 33.1 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 13.3 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.8 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 57.5

Total Profit: -42.6



# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 ENG Matt Wallace 9 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 10% 7.27% 6.34% -0.93% T8
2 GER Martin Kaymer 18 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 5.26% 3.83% 2.86% -0.97% T21
3 ENG Eddie Pepperell 20 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.46% 1.33% -2.13% T6
4 ESP Adria Arnaus 22 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.16% 2.44% -0.72% T40
5 DEN Lucas Bjerregaard 22 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.16% 1% -2.17% MC
6 ENG Tom Lewis 22 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.16% 0.67% -2.49% T8
7 ENG Jordan L Smith 25 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.8% 1.79% -1.01% T31
8 FIN Mikko Korhonen 25 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.8% 1.66% -1.14% T31
9 RSA George Coetzee 25 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.8% 1.18% -1.62% T14
10 ENG Sam Horsfield 28 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.51% 2.08% -0.43% T49
11 DEN Joachim B Hansen 28 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.51% 1.45% -1.06% T61
12 ENG Lee Westwood 28 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.51% 0.83% -1.68% T56
13 ENG Andy Sullivan 33 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.14% 1.57% -0.57% T8
14 ENG Chris Paisley 35 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.02% 1.47% -0.55% 5
15 NZL Ryan Fox 35 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.02% 0.99% -1.03% T31
16 ENG Ross Fisher 40 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.77% 1.19% -0.58% T49
17 SWE Joakim Lagergren 40 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.77% 1.12% -0.66% T14
18 ENG Matthew Southgate 40 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.77% 0.86% -0.92% T31
19 ENG Callum Shinkwin 50 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.43% 0.8% -0.63% MC
20 WAL Jamie Donaldson 55 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.3% 0.94% -0.36% T31
21 IND Shubhankar Sharma 60 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.19% 1.01% -0.18% T21
22 SWE Rikard Karlberg 66 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.09% 1.4% 0.31% MC 4.76
23 ITA Nino Bertasio 66 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.09% 1.24% 0.16% MC 4.76
24 IRL Padraig Harrington 66 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.09% 1.22% 0.14% MC 4.76
25 ITA Guido Migliozzi 66 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.09% 1.11% 0.02% T14 4.76
26 RSA Dean Burmester 66 (Bet Victor: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.09% 0.97% -0.12% T14 4.76
27 FRA Alexander Levy 66 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.09% 0.77% -0.31% MC
28 CHI Hugo Leon 70 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.02% 1.53% 0.51% T21 4.49
29 FIN Kalle Samooja 70 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.02% 1.01% -0.01% T21 4.49
30 SWE Alexander Bjork 70 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.41% 1.02% 0.96% -0.06% T49 4.49
31 DEN Jeff Winther 80 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.9% 1.11% 0.21% MC 3.94
32 ENG Ashley Chesters 80 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.9% 1.11% 0.21% T31 3.94
33 ESP Pablo Larrazabal 80 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.9% 0.89% 0% T14 3.94
34 ENG Lee Slattery 80 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.9% 0.77% -0.13% MC 3.94
35 KOR Jeunghun Wang 80 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.9% 0.73% -0.17% T6 (tied w/2) 3.94 +16.7
36 ENG David Horsey 80 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.9% 0.72% -0.18% 48 3.94
37 ESP Nacho Elvira 80 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.9% 0.57% -0.32% MC
38 AUS Minwoo Lee 80 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.9% 0.48% -0.42% T63
39 FIN Tapio Pulkkanen 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.72% 1.37% 0.65% T40 3.16
40 ITA Renato Paratore 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.72% 1.21% 0.49% T21 3.16
41 DEN Soren Kjeldsen 100 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.72% 0.74% 0.02% MC 3.16
42 SWE Niklas Lemke 100 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.72% 0.71% -0.01% T56 3.16
43 ENG Robert Rock 100 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.72% 0.67% -0.05% T40 3.16
44 POR Ricardo Gouveia 100 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.72% 0.55% -0.17% T27 3.16
45 RSA Brandon Stone 100 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.72% 0.54% -0.18% T2
46 SCO Stephen Gallacher 100 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.72% 0.43% -0.29% MC
47 ESP Alvaro Quiros 125 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.58% 1.14% 0.57% MC 2.53
48 USA Sihwan Kim 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.58% 1.04% 0.46% T61 2.53
49 ESP Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 125 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.58% 0.94% 0.36% T49 2.53
50 RSA Haydn Porteous 125 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.58% 0.84% 0.26% T40 2.53
51 ESP Adrian Otaegui 125 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.58% 0.77% 0.19% T49 2.53
52 RSA Justin Walters 125 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.58% 0.72% 0.14% T2 (tied w/2) 2.53 +40.8
53 ENG Oliver Fisher 125 (William Hill: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.58% 0.68% 0.1% T8 2.53
54 WAL Bradley Dredge 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.58% 0.42% -0.16% T14 2.53
55 ENG Chris Wood 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.58% 0.35% -0.23% 68
56 IRL Gavin Moynihan 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.48% 1.17% 0.69% WD
57 ESP Eduardo De la Riva 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 1.05% 0.57% MC
58 ENG Oliver Wilson 150 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 1.02% 0.54% T56
59 FRA Romain Wattel 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 0.91% 0.43% T63
60 ENG Jack Singh Brar 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 0.9% 0.42% T8
61 RSA Thomas Aiken 150 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 0.77% 0.29% T31
62 ENG Steven Brown 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 0.72% 0.24% 1
63 ESP Alejandro Canizares 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 0.67% 0.19% MC
64 NOR Kristoffer Reitan 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.48% 0.66% 0.17% T21
65 USA John Catlin 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 0.54% 0.06% MC
66 GER Maximilian Kieffer 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 0.36% -0.12% MC
67 RSA Darren Fichardt 175 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.41% 0.62% 0.21% T40
68 ITA Lorenzo Gagli 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 1.02% 0.66% MC
69 SCO Grant Forrest 200 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.74% 0.37% MC
70 IRL Paul Dunne 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.74% 0.37% MC
71 FRA Matthieu Pavon 200 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.36% 0.73% 0.37% T27
72 GER Bernd Ritthammer 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.67% 0.31% T27
73 ENG Ben Evans 200 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.61% 0.25% MC
74 FRA Clement Sordet 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.55% 0.19% MC
75 FRA Adrien Saddier 200 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.36% 0.36% 0% 4
76 JPN Hideto Tanihara 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.83% 0.54% DQ
77 SCO David Drysdale 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.53% 0.24% MC
78 AUS Jake McLeod 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.44% 0.15% T8
79 RSA Louis de Jager 275 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.36% 0.26% 0.57% 0.3% T14
80 RSA Jacques Kruyswijk 300 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.81% 0.56% T49
81 SCO Liam Johnston 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.6% 0.36% T40
82 SWE Robert Karlsson 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.57% 0.33% T69
83 JPN Yusaku Miyazato 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.57% 0.32% MC
84 SWE Jens Dantorp 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.51% 0.27% MC
85 NOR Espen Kofstad 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.47% 0.23% MC
86 GER Max Schmitt 300 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.45% 0.21% MC
87 RSA Trevor Immelman 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.37% 0.13% T63
88 AUS Deyen Lawson 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.34% 0.09% MC
89 ENG Max Orrin 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.33% 0.09% MC
90 SCO Paul Lawrie 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.28% 0.04% T56
91 ENG Matthew Nixon 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.22% -0.02% MC
92 POR Pedro Figueiredo 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.21% 1.59% 1.38% MC
93 SWE Anton Karlsson 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.21% 0.54% 0.33% T63
94 SCO Marc Warren 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.21% 0.37% 0.17% T56
95 AUS Sam Brazel 400 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.64% 0.46% MC
96 ENG Daniel Gavins 400 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.53% 0.35% MC
97 SWE Per Langfors 400 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.44% 0.25% MC
98 NIR Michael Hoey 400 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.43% 0.25% MC
99 FRA Raphael Jacquelin 400 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.33% 0.15% MC
100 ENG Richard McEvoy 400 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.26% 0.08% T49
101 ENG Steve Webster 400 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.25% 0.07% MC
102 AUS Nick Cullen 400 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.23% 0.05% T40
103 ITA Filippo Bergamaschi 500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.77% 0.62% MC
104 DEN Thomas Bjorn 500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.61% 0.47% MC
105 ESP Ivan Cantero Gutierrez 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.51% 0.36% MC
106 WAL Stuart Manley 500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.47% 0.33% MC
107 SCO David Law 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.45% 0.31% MC
108 ENG Tom Murray 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.33% 0.19% T63
109 ITA Matteo Manassero 500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.28% 0.13% MC
110 SUI Joel Girrbach 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.27% 0.12% MC
111 NOR Kristian Krogh Johannessen 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.25% 0.11% T31
112 ESP David Borda Antonana 600 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.12% 0.33% 0.21% T31
113 ENG David Howell 600 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.12% 0.3% 0.18% MC
114 ENG Scott Gregory 750 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.45% 0.35% MC
115 KOR Hyowon Park 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.1% 0.39% 0.3% MC
116 POR Daniel Da Costa Rodrigues 750 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.28% 0.18% MC
117 POR Tomas Melo Gouveia 1000 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.28% 0.21% MC
118 POR Tomas Silva 1500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.05% 0.78% 0.73% T27
119 POR Tiago Cruz 1500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.05% 0.36% 0.31% T40
120 NZL Michael Campbell 1500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.05% 0.25% 0.2% MC
121 SWE Miguel Gaspar 2000 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.05% 0.04% 0.36% 0.32% MC
122 POR Joao Carlota 2000 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.05% 0.04% 0.29% 0.26% MC
123 POR Tomas Guimaraes Bessa 2500 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.04% 0.03% 0.38% 0.35% MC
124 AUS Dimi Papadatos 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
125 DEN Nicolai Hojgaard 0% 0% 0% 0% T69
126 POR Pedro Cruz Silva 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 33.1 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 13.3 %

Key


Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Skybet 7 @ 1/5 46.6% 22.7%
2 Betfair Sportsbook 8 @ 1/5 60.2% 24.1%
3 Paddy Power 8 @ 1/5 62.5% 25.9%
4 Boyle Sports 8 @ 1/5 65.8% 28.4%
5 Coral 7 @ 1/5 55.9% 30.6%
6 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 47.5% 31.5%
7 Sportingbet 5 @ 1/4 49% 32.9%
8 Ladbrokes 5 @ 1/4 49.3% 33.1%
9 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 48.2% 35%
10 Black Type 5 @ 1/4 52.5% 36%
11 Marathon Bet 5 @ 1/4 53.9% 37.2%
12 Betfred 6 @ 1/5 51.1% 37.7%
13 SportPesa 5 @ 1/4 55.6% 38.7%
14 Bethard 5 @ 1/4 55.6% 38.7%
15 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 55.6% 38.7%
16 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 55.8% 38.9%
17 MoPlay 5 @ 1/4 55.8% 38.9%
18 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 53.7% 40.1%
19 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 53.9% 40.3%
20 Betway 6 @ 1/5 54.5% 40.8%
21 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 55.9% 42.2%