Betting Market Analysis for Portugal Masters
Key
Odds: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?
Implied: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.
Normalised: The golfer's actual implied probability. (They sum to 100%).
Discrepancy: THE MONEY MAKER Predicted - Implied. This shows the value in the bet, the higher the better.
Value: The value of the odds and terms on offer. More info.
Forecast Table
Up to date as of: 4 years ago
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| # | Player | Bookies' Odds | Implied Impl. | Normalised Norm. | Predicted Pred. | Discrepancy Discrep. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 12/1 | 6.44% | -1.02% | |
| 2 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 24/1 | 2.9% | -1.03% | |
| 3 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 27/1 | 1.35% | -2.2% | |
| 4 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 30/1 | 2.48% | -0.77% | |
| 5 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 30/1 | 1.01% | -2.23% | |
| 6 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 30/1 | 0.68% | -2.56% | |
| 7 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 34/1 | 1.82% | -1.05% | |
| 8 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 34/1 | 1.69% | -1.18% | |
| 9 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 34/1 | 1.2% | -1.67% | |
| 10 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 38/1 | 2.11% | -0.47% | |
| 11 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 38/1 | 0.84% | -1.73% | |
| 12 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 45/1 | 1.59% | -0.6% | |
| 13 |
| Chris Paisley | 35 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 2.78% | 2.07% ≈ 47/1 | 1.49% | -0.58% | |
| 14 |
| Ryan Fox | 35 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 2.78% | 2.07% ≈ 47/1 | 1% | -1.07% | |
| 15 |
| Ross Fisher | 40 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 2.44% | 1.82% ≈ 54/1 | 1.21% | -0.61% | |
| 16 |
| Joakim Lagergren | 40 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 2.44% | 1.82% ≈ 54/1 | 1.13% | -0.69% | |
| 17 |
| Matthew Southgate | 40 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 2.44% | 1.82% ≈ 54/1 | 0.87% | -0.95% | |
| 18 |
| Callum Shinkwin | 50 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 1.96% | 1.46% ≈ 67/1 | 0.81% | -0.66% | |
| 19 |
| Jamie Donaldson | 55 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 1.79% | 1.33% ≈ 74/1 | 0.96% | -0.38% | |
| 20 |
| Shubhankar Sharma | 60 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 1.64% | 1.22% ≈ 81/1 | 1.03% | -0.2% | |
| 21 |
| Rikard Karlberg | 66 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 1.49% | 1.11% ≈ 89/1 | 1.42% | 0.31% | |
| 22 |
| Nino Bertasio | 66 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 1.49% | 1.11% ≈ 89/1 | 1.26% | 0.15% | |
| 23 |
| Padraig Harrington | 66 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 1.49% | 1.11% ≈ 89/1 | 1.24% | 0.13% | |
| 24 |
| Guido Migliozzi | 66 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 1.49% | 1.11% ≈ 89/1 | 1.12% | 0.01% | |
| 25 |
| Dean Burmester | 66 (Bet Victor: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.49% | 1.11% ≈ 89/1 | 0.98% | -0.13% | |
| 26 |
| Alexander Levy | 66 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.49% | 1.11% ≈ 89/1 | 0.78% | -0.33% | |
| 27 |
| Hugo Leon | 70 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 1.41% | 1.05% ≈ 94/1 | 1.56% | 0.51% | |
| 28 |
| Kalle Samooja | 70 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 1.41% | 1.05% ≈ 94/1 | 1.02% | -0.03% | |
| 29 |
| Alexander Bjork | 70 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.41% | 1.05% ≈ 94/1 | 0.97% | -0.08% | |
| 30 |
| Jeff Winther | 80 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.23% | 0.92% ≈ 108/1 | 1.13% | 0.21% | |
| 31 |
| Ashley Chesters | 80 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 1.23% | 0.92% ≈ 108/1 | 1.12% | 0.2% | |
| 32 |
| Pablo Larrazabal | 80 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) | 1.23% | 0.92% ≈ 108/1 | 0.91% | -0.01% | |
| 33 |
| Lee Slattery | 80 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) | 1.23% | 0.92% ≈ 108/1 | 0.78% | -0.14% | |
| 34 |
| Jeunghun Wang | 80 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.23% | 0.92% ≈ 108/1 | 0.74% | -0.18% | |
| 35 |
| David Horsey | 80 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) | 1.23% | 0.92% ≈ 108/1 | 0.73% | -0.19% | |
| 36 |
| Nacho Elvira | 80 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 1.23% | 0.92% ≈ 108/1 | 0.58% | -0.34% | |
| 37 |
| Minwoo Lee | 80 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 1.23% | 0.92% ≈ 108/1 | 0.48% | -0.44% | |
| 38 |
| Tapio Pulkkanen | 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.99% | 0.74% ≈ 134/1 | 1.39% | 0.65% | |
| 39 |
| Renato Paratore | 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.99% | 0.74% ≈ 134/1 | 1.23% | 0.49% | |
| 40 |
| Soren Kjeldsen | 100 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.99% | 0.74% ≈ 134/1 | 0.75% | 0.02% | |
| 41 |
| Niklas Lemke | 100 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.74% ≈ 134/1 | 0.72% | -0.02% | |
| 42 |
| Robert Rock | 100 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.74% ≈ 134/1 | 0.68% | -0.06% | |
| 43 |
| Ricardo Gouveia | 100 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.74% ≈ 134/1 | 0.56% | -0.18% | |
| 44 |
| Brandon Stone | 100 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.74% ≈ 134/1 | 0.55% | -0.19% | |
| 45 |
| Stephen Gallacher | 100 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.74% ≈ 134/1 | 0.43% | -0.31% | |
| 46 |
| Alvaro Quiros | 125 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.59% ≈ 168/1 | 1.16% | 0.57% | |
| 47 |
| Sihwan Kim | 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.59% ≈ 168/1 | 1.05% | 0.46% | |
| 48 |
| Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano | 125 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.59% ≈ 168/1 | 0.95% | 0.36% | |
| 49 |
| Haydn Porteous | 125 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.79% | 0.59% ≈ 168/1 | 0.85% | 0.26% | |
| 50 |
| Adrian Otaegui | 125 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.79% | 0.59% ≈ 168/1 | 0.78% | 0.19% | |
| 51 |
| Justin Walters | 125 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.79% | 0.59% ≈ 168/1 | 0.73% | 0.13% | |
| 52 |
| Oliver Fisher | 125 (William Hill: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.59% ≈ 168/1 | 0.69% | 0.1% | |
| 53 |
| Bradley Dredge | 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.79% | 0.59% ≈ 168/1 | 0.42% | -0.17% | |
| 54 |
| Chris Wood | 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.59% ≈ 168/1 | 0.35% | -0.24% | |
| 55 |
| Gavin Moynihan | 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.66% | 0.49% ≈ 201/1 | 1.19% | 0.69% | |
| 56 |
| Eduardo De la Riva | 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.49% ≈ 201/1 | 1.07% | 0.58% | |
| 57 |
| Oliver Wilson | 150 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.49% ≈ 201/1 | 1.03% | 0.54% | |
| 58 |
| Romain Wattel | 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.49% ≈ 201/1 | 0.93% | 0.43% | |
| 59 |
| Jack Singh Brar | 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.49% ≈ 201/1 | 0.92% | 0.42% | |
| 60 |
| Thomas Aiken | 150 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.49% ≈ 201/1 | 0.78% | 0.29% | |
| 61 |
| Steven Brown | 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.49% ≈ 201/1 | 0.73% | 0.24% | |
| 62 |
| Alejandro Canizares | 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.49% ≈ 201/1 | 0.68% | 0.18% | |
| 63 |
| Kristoffer Reitan | 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.66% | 0.49% ≈ 201/1 | 0.66% | 0.17% | |
| 64 |
| John Catlin | 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.49% ≈ 201/1 | 0.55% | 0.06% | |
| 65 |
| Maximilian Kieffer | 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.49% ≈ 201/1 | 0.36% | -0.13% | |
| 66 |
| Darren Fichardt | 175 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.57% | 0.42% ≈ 235/1 | 0.63% | 0.21% | |
| 67 |
| Lorenzo Gagli | 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.37% ≈ 268/1 | 1.03% | 0.66% | |
| 68 |
| Grant Forrest | 200 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.37% ≈ 268/1 | 0.75% | 0.38% | |
| 69 |
| Paul Dunne | 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.37% ≈ 268/1 | 0.75% | 0.38% | |
| 70 |
| Matthieu Pavon | 200 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.5% | 0.37% ≈ 268/1 | 0.74% | 0.37% | |
| 71 |
| Bernd Ritthammer | 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.37% ≈ 268/1 | 0.68% | 0.31% | |
| 72 |
| Ben Evans | 200 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.37% ≈ 268/1 | 0.62% | 0.25% | |
| 73 |
| Clement Sordet | 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.37% ≈ 268/1 | 0.56% | 0.19% | |
| 74 |
| Adrien Saddier | 200 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.5% | 0.37% ≈ 268/1 | 0.37% | 0% | |
| 75 |
| Hideto Tanihara | 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.3% ≈ 335/1 | 0.84% | 0.54% | |
| 76 |
| David Drysdale | 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.3% ≈ 335/1 | 0.54% | 0.24% | |
| 77 |
| Jake McLeod | 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.3% ≈ 335/1 | 0.44% | 0.15% | |
| 78 |
| Louis de Jager | 275 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.36% | 0.27% ≈ 369/1 | 0.57% | 0.3% | |
| 79 |
| Jacques Kruyswijk | 300 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.33% | 0.25% ≈ 402/1 | 0.82% | 0.57% | |
| 80 |
| Liam Johnston | 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.33% | 0.25% ≈ 402/1 | 0.61% | 0.36% | |
| 81 |
| Robert Karlsson | 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.33% | 0.25% ≈ 402/1 | 0.58% | 0.33% | |
| 82 |
| Yusaku Miyazato | 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.33% | 0.25% ≈ 402/1 | 0.57% | 0.33% | |
| 83 |
| Jens Dantorp | 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.33% | 0.25% ≈ 402/1 | 0.51% | 0.27% | |
| 84 |
| Espen Kofstad | 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.33% | 0.25% ≈ 402/1 | 0.48% | 0.23% | |
| 85 |
| Max Schmitt | 300 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.33% | 0.25% ≈ 402/1 | 0.46% | 0.21% | |
| 86 |
| Trevor Immelman | 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.33% | 0.25% ≈ 402/1 | 0.38% | 0.13% | |
| 87 |
| Deyen Lawson | 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.33% | 0.25% ≈ 402/1 | 0.34% | 0.09% | |
| 88 |
| Max Orrin | 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.33% | 0.25% ≈ 402/1 | 0.33% | 0.09% | |
| 89 |
| Paul Lawrie | 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.33% | 0.25% ≈ 402/1 | 0.28% | 0.04% | |
| 90 |
| Matthew Nixon | 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.33% | 0.25% ≈ 402/1 | 0.23% | -0.02% | |
| 91 |
| Pedro Figueiredo | 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.28% | 0.21% ≈ 469/1 | 1.61% | 1.4% | |
| 92 |
| Anton Karlsson | 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.28% | 0.21% ≈ 469/1 | 0.55% | 0.34% | |
| 93 |
| Marc Warren | 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.28% | 0.21% ≈ 469/1 | 0.38% | 0.17% | |
| 94 |
| Sam Brazel | 400 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.25% | 0.19% ≈ 536/1 | 0.65% | 0.47% | |
| 95 |
| Daniel Gavins | 400 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.25% | 0.19% ≈ 536/1 | 0.54% | 0.36% | |
| 96 |
| Per Langfors | 400 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.25% | 0.19% ≈ 536/1 | 0.44% | 0.26% | |
| 97 |
| Michael Hoey | 400 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.25% | 0.19% ≈ 536/1 | 0.44% | 0.25% | |
| 98 |
| Raphael Jacquelin | 400 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.25% | 0.19% ≈ 536/1 | 0.34% | 0.15% | |
| 99 |
| Richard McEvoy | 400 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.25% | 0.19% ≈ 536/1 | 0.27% | 0.08% | |
| 100 |
| Steve Webster | 400 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.25% | 0.19% ≈ 536/1 | 0.26% | 0.07% | |
| 101 |
| Nick Cullen | 400 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.25% | 0.19% ≈ 536/1 | 0.24% | 0.05% | |
| 102 |
| Filippo Bergamaschi | 500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.15% ≈ 670/1 | 0.78% | 0.63% | |
| 103 |
| Thomas Bjorn | 500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.15% ≈ 670/1 | 0.62% | 0.47% | |
| 104 |
| Ivan Cantero Gutierrez | 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.15% ≈ 670/1 | 0.51% | 0.37% | |
| 105 |
| Stuart Manley | 500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.15% ≈ 670/1 | 0.48% | 0.33% | |
| 106 |
| David Law | 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.15% ≈ 670/1 | 0.46% | 0.31% | |
| 107 |
| Tom Murray | 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.15% ≈ 670/1 | 0.34% | 0.19% | |
| 108 |
| Matteo Manassero | 500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.15% ≈ 670/1 | 0.28% | 0.13% | |
| 109 |
| Joel Girrbach | 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.15% ≈ 670/1 | 0.27% | 0.12% | |
| 110 |
| Kristian Krogh Johannessen | 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.15% ≈ 670/1 | 0.26% | 0.11% | |
| 111 |
| David Borda Antonana | 600 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.17% | 0.12% ≈ 804/1 | 0.34% | 0.21% | |
| 112 |
| David Howell | 600 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.17% | 0.12% ≈ 804/1 | 0.31% | 0.18% | |
| 113 |
| Scott Gregory | 750 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.13% | 0.1% ≈ 1005/1 | 0.45% | 0.35% | |
| 114 |
| Hyowon Park | 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.13% | 0.1% ≈ 1005/1 | 0.4% | 0.3% | |
| 115 |
| Daniel Da Costa Rodrigues | 750 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.13% | 0.1% ≈ 1005/1 | 0.28% | 0.19% | |
| 116 |
| Tomas Melo Gouveia | 1000 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.1% | 0.07% ≈ 1341/1 | 0.28% | 0.21% | |
| 117 |
| Tomas Silva | 1500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.07% | 0.05% ≈ 2011/1 | 0.79% | 0.74% | |
| 118 |
| Tiago Cruz | 1500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.07% | 0.05% ≈ 2011/1 | 0.36% | 0.31% | |
| 119 |
| Michael Campbell | 1500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.07% | 0.05% ≈ 2011/1 | 0.25% | 0.2% | |
| 120 |
| Miguel Gaspar | 2000 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.05% | 0.04% ≈ 2681/1 | 0.36% | 0.32% | |
| 121 |
| Joao Carlota | 2000 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.05% | 0.04% ≈ 2681/1 | 0.3% | 0.26% | |
| 122 |
| Tomas Guimaraes Bessa | 2500 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.04% | 0.03% ≈ 3351/1 | 0.38% | 0.35% | |
| 123 |
| Dimi Papadatos | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
| 124 |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
| 125 |
| Pedro Cruz Silva | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
Bookie Analysis
Overround of best available: 30.1 %
Overround of 'true value' of best available: 10.6 %
Key
Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?
True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.
| # | Bookie | Terms | Overround | True Overround |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Skybet | 7 @ 1/5 | 46.6% | 22.7% |
| 2 | Betfair Sportsbook | 8 @ 1/5 | 60.2% | 24.1% |
| 3 | Paddy Power | 8 @ 1/5 | 62.5% | 25.9% |
| 4 | Boyle Sports | 8 @ 1/5 | 65.8% | 28.4% |
| 5 | Coral | 7 @ 1/5 | 55.9% | 30.6% |
| 6 | Bet365 | 5 @ 1/4 | 47.5% | 31.5% |
| 7 | Sportingbet | 5 @ 1/4 | 49% | 32.9% |
| 8 | Ladbrokes | 5 @ 1/4 | 49.3% | 33.1% |
| 9 | William Hill | 6 @ 1/5 | 48.2% | 35% |
| 10 | Black Type | 5 @ 1/4 | 52.5% | 36% |
| 11 | Marathon Bet | 5 @ 1/4 | 53.9% | 37.2% |
| 12 | Betfred | 6 @ 1/5 | 51.1% | 37.7% |
| 13 | SportPesa | 5 @ 1/4 | 55.6% | 38.7% |
| 14 | Bethard | 5 @ 1/4 | 55.6% | 38.7% |
| 15 | Sport Nation | 5 @ 1/4 | 55.6% | 38.7% |
| 16 | 10Bet | 5 @ 1/4 | 55.8% | 38.9% |
| 17 | MoPlay | 5 @ 1/4 | 55.8% | 38.9% |
| 18 | 888Sport | 6 @ 1/5 | 53.7% | 40.1% |
| 19 | Unibet | 6 @ 1/5 | 53.9% | 40.3% |
| 20 | Betway | 6 @ 1/5 | 54.5% | 40.8% |
| 21 | Bet Victor | 6 @ 1/5 | 55.9% | 42.2% |