Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 8.7 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: -1.8 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.3 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 96.6

Total Profit: -3.5

Valero Texas Open

31/03/2022 - 03/04/2022

Up to date as of: 2 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 NIR Rory McIlroy 9 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 10% 8.5% 3.62% -4.88% MC
2 USA Jordan Spieth 14 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 6.67% 5.67% 1.5% -4.16% T35
3 CAN Corey Conners 18 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 5.26% 4.47% 2.26% -2.21% T35
4 JPN Hideki Matsuyama 20 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 4.76% 4.05% 2.78% -1.26% WD
5 MEX Abraham Ancer 20 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 4.76% 4.05% 2.11% -1.94%
6 USA Bryson DeChambeau 28 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.93% 0.85% -2.08% MC
7 USA Chris Kirk 33 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.5% 1.1% -1.4% T35
8 USA Gary Woodland 33 (QuinnBet: 7 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.5% 0.95% -1.55% T8
9 USA Maverick McNealy 35 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.36% 1.4% -0.96% T35
10 KOR Siwoo Kim 35 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.36% 0.89% -1.47% T13
11 CAN Adam Hadwin 40 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 2.07% 1.58% -0.49% T4
12 USA Keegan Bradley 40 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 2.07% 1.46% -0.61% T8
13 USA Tony Finau 40 (Ladbrokes: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 2.07% 1.16% -0.91% T29
14 AUS Jason Day 45 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.85% 0.39% -1.46% MC
15 VEN Jhonattan Vegas 55 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.52% 0.83% -0.68% T18
16 USA Luke List 60 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.39% 1.79% 0.4% T53 6.25
17 USA Sahith Theegala 66 (Ladbrokes: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.27% 0.98% -0.28% T67 5.69
18 USA Davis Riley 66 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.27% 0.98% -0.29% T63 5.69
19 USA Kevin Streelman 66 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.27% 0.91% -0.36% T18 5.69
20 USA Patton Kizzire 66 (Bet Victor: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.27% 0.88% -0.38% MC
21 USA Charley Hoffman 70 (Ladbrokes: 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.2% 0.47% -0.72% MC
22 USA Richard H. Lee 70 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.2% 0.14% -1.06%
23 USA Lanto Griffin 80 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.05% 1.57% 0.53% T53 4.7
24 USA Denny McCarthy 80 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.05% 1.33% 0.28% T18 4.7
25 USA Rickie Fowler 80 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 14.9/1) 1.23% 1.05% 0.82% -0.23% MC 4.7
26 USA Doug Ghim 80 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 1.05% 0.71% -0.34% MC 4.7
27 USA Brendan Steele 80 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 1.05% 0.71% -0.34% T48 4.7
28 SCO Russell Knox 94 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 16.7/1) 1.05% 0.89% 0.87% -0.03% T61 4.01
29 SCO Martin Laird 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.84% 1.29% 0.45% T29 3.77
30 USA Charles Howell III 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.84% 1.07% 0.23% T4 (tied w/4) 3.77 +39.6
31 RSA Dylan Frittelli 100 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.84% 0.95% 0.1% T8 3.77
32 DEN Rasmus Hojgaard 100 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.84% 0.49% -0.35% T18 3.77
33 USA Matthew NeSmith 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.77% 0.82% 0.06% MC 3.43
34 USA Ryan Palmer 113 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 19/1) 0.88% 0.75% 1.07% 0.33% T48 3.34
35 IND Anirban Lahiri 120 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.83% 0.7% 1.08% 0.38% T13 3.15
36 USA Matt Kuchar 123 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 20.2/1) 0.81% 0.69% 1.1% 0.41% T2 (tied w/2) 3.07 +32.6
37 USA Troy Merritt 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.67% 1.44% 0.77% T4 (tied w/4) 3.03 +24.4
38 ENG Richard Bland 125 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.67% 1.36% 0.68% T29 3.03
39 CAN Nick Taylor 125 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.67% 1.08% 0.41% MC 3.03
40 USA Taylor Moore 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.67% 1.01% 0.33% MC 3.03
41 USA Scott Stallings 125 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.67% 0.93% 0.26% T13 3.03
42 USA Pat Perez 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.67% 0.77% 0.1% MC 3.03
43 USA Alex Smalley 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.67% 0.67% 0% MC 3.03
44 ENG Ian Poulter 142 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 22.4/1) 0.7% 0.59% 1.31% 0.72% MC
45 USA Kramer Hickok 150 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.56% 1.04% 0.47% MC
46 AUS Matt Jones 150 (Sport Nation: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.56% 0.94% 0.38% T2
47 SCO Robert MacIntyre 170 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 25.5/1) 0.58% 0.5% 1.18% 0.68% T35
48 USA Beau Hossler 170 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 25.5/1) 0.58% 0.5% 0.66% 0.17% T4
49 USA J.J Spaun 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.48% 1.31% 0.83% 1
50 USA Andrew Putnam 175 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.48% 0.76% 0.28% T41
51 USA David Lipsky 180 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 26.5/1) 0.55% 0.47% 0.56% 0.09% MC
52 RSA Branden Grace 180 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 26.5/1) 0.55% 0.47% 0.48% 0.01% MC
53 USA Lucas Glover 199 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 28.5/1) 0.5% 0.42% 0.81% 0.39% T18
54 CAN Adam Svensson 200 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.42% 0.95% 0.52% MC
55 USA Greyson Sigg 200 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.42% 0.93% 0.5% T41
56 USA Austin Smotherman 200 (Betway: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.42% 0.72% 0.3% T61
57 USA Hayden Buckley 200 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.42% 0.66% 0.24% MC
58 USA Adam Long 200 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.42% 0.65% 0.23% T35
59 USA Joseph Bramlett 200 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.42% 0.51% 0.09% MC
60 AUS Minwoo Lee 208 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 29.4/1) 0.48% 0.41% 0.99% 0.59% MC
61 AUT Matthias Schwab 208 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 29.4/1) 0.48% 0.41% 0.63% 0.22% T8
62 USA Chad Ramey 208 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 29.4/1) 0.48% 0.41% 0.4% -0.01% T41
63 JPN Takumi Kanaya 218 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 30.4/1) 0.46% 0.39% 1.02% 0.63% MC
64 USA Wyndham Clark 218 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 30.4/1) 0.46% 0.39% 0.73% 0.34% T71
65 TPE C.T. Pan 218 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 30.4/1) 0.46% 0.39% 0.64% 0.25% T41
66 USA Cameron Champ 218 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 30.4/1) 0.46% 0.39% 0.26% -0.13% MC
67 ENG Lee Westwood 227 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 31.3/1) 0.44% 0.37% 0.47% 0.09% MC
68 RSA Garrick Higgo 250 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.34% 0.7% 0.36% MC
69 USA Harry Higgs 250 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.34% 0.69% 0.36% MC
70 USA JT Poston 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.34% 0.63% 0.29% T41
71 USA Doc Redman 250 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.34% 0.6% 0.27% T67
72 USA Vincent Whaley 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.34% 0.6% 0.26% T29
73 USA Patrick Rodgers 250 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.34% 0.5% 0.16% T58
74 AUS Cameron Percy 250 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.34% 0.16% -0.18%
75 NZL Danny Lee 265 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 40.5/1) 0.38% 0.32% 1.3% 0.98% WD
76 USA Lee Hodges 265 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 40.5/1) 0.38% 0.32% 0.88% 0.56% MC
77 USA Brian Stuard 265 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 40.5/1) 0.38% 0.32% 0.57% 0.25% MC
78 USA Sam Ryder 275 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 41.6/1) 0.36% 0.31% 0.87% 0.56% MC
79 ENG Aaron Rai 275 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 41.6/1) 0.36% 0.31% 0.73% 0.42% T29
80 USA Kevin Chappell 275 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 41.6/1) 0.36% 0.31% 0.3% 0% T18
81 USA Nate Lashley 284 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 42.6/1) 0.35% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% T18
82 USA Hudson Swafford 300 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.28% 0.79% 0.5% T58
83 USA Jimmy Walker 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.28% 0.4% 0.12% MC
84 USA Trey Mullinax 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.28% 0.32% 0.03% MC
85 USA Tyler Duncan 303 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 44.6/1) 0.33% 0.28% 0.53% 0.25% MC
86 USA Robert Streb 322 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 46.6/1) 0.31% 0.26% 0.94% 0.67% MC
87 ENG Matt Wallace 322 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 46.6/1) 0.31% 0.26% 0.57% 0.31% MC
88 USA Adam Schenk 322 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 46.6/1) 0.31% 0.26% 0.56% 0.3% MC
89 USA Brendon Todd 332 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 47.7/1) 0.3% 0.26% 0.59% 0.33% T8
90 USA Hank Lebioda 351 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 49.7/1) 0.28% 0.24% 0.46% 0.21% MC
91 USA Kevin Tway 370 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 51.6/1) 0.27% 0.23% 0.6% 0.37% WD
92 USA Zach Johnson 379 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 52.5/1) 0.26% 0.22% 0.64% 0.42% T13
93 USA Nick Hardy 379 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 52.5/1) 0.26% 0.22% 0.16% -0.06% MC
94 CAN Roger Sloan 398 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 54.4/1) 0.25% 0.21% 0.31% 0.09% T53
95 SWE Ludvig Aberg 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.21% 0.17% -0.04% MC
96 USA Brandon Hagy 408 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 55.4/1) 0.24% 0.21% 0.42% 0.22% MC
97 GER Stephan Jaeger 417 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 56.3/1) 0.24% 0.2% 0.27% 0.06% MC
98 USA Peter Malnati 427 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 57.3/1) 0.23% 0.2% 0.81% 0.61% T41
99 USA Chez Reavie 427 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 57.3/1) 0.23% 0.2% 0.72% 0.53% WD
100 USA Brandt Snedeker 427 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 57.3/1) 0.23% 0.2% 0.4% 0.21% T18
101 USA Andrew Novak 436 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 58.2/1) 0.23% 0.19% 0.54% 0.34% MC
102 USA Ryan Brehm 446 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 59.2/1) 0.22% 0.19% 0.16% -0.03% MC
103 USA James Hahn 465 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 61/1) 0.21% 0.18% 0.23% 0.05% T69
104 USA Ben Martin 474 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 61.9/1) 0.21% 0.18% 0.17% -0.01% T63
105 NIR Graeme McDowell 484 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 62.8/1) 0.21% 0.18% 0.47% 0.3% MC
106 USA Brice Garnett 484 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 62.8/1) 0.21% 0.18% 0.45% 0.27% MC
107 USA Justin Lower 484 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 62.8/1) 0.21% 0.18% 0.25% 0.08% MC
108 USA Nick Watney 493 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 63.7/1) 0.2% 0.17% 0.55% 0.37% MC
109 FRA Paul Barjon 493 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 63.7/1) 0.2% 0.17% 0.44% 0.26% MC
110 USA Martin Trainer 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.17% 0.39% 0.22% MC
111 USA Max McGreevy 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.17% 0.33% 0.16% MC
112 SWE Henrik Norlander 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.17% 0.28% 0.11% T53
113 USA Jim Herman 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.17% 0.25% 0.08% T71
114 USA Dylan Wu 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.17% 0.22% 0.05% MC
115 KOR Seungyul Noh 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.17% 0.22% 0.05% T63
116 USA John Huh 550 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 68.9/1) 0.18% 0.15% 0.98% 0.82% T41
117 USA Kyle Stanley 569 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 70.7/1) 0.18% 0.15% 0.49% 0.35% MC
118 KOR Sunghoon Kang 569 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 70.7/1) 0.18% 0.15% 0.45% 0.3% MC
119 ENG Luke Donald 579 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 71.6/1) 0.17% 0.15% 0.43% 0.28% T58
120 USA Ben Kohles 579 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 71.6/1) 0.17% 0.15% 0.29% 0.15% MC
121 ITA Guido Migliozzi 579 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 71.6/1) 0.17% 0.15% 0.2% 0.05% MC
122 USA Richy Werenski 645 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 77.5/1) 0.15% 0.13% 0.64% 0.51% T48
123 COL Camilo Villegas 645 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 77.5/1) 0.15% 0.13% 0.28% 0.15% MC
124 USA Bill Haas 664 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 79.1/1) 0.15% 0.13% 0.49% 0.37% T63
125 SWE Henrik Stenson 664 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 79.1/1) 0.15% 0.13% 0.32% 0.19% T18
126 USA Andrew Landry 693 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 81.6/1) 0.14% 0.12% 0.37% 0.25%
127 SWE Jonas Blixt 750 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.11% 0.26% 0.15% MC
128 USA Chesson Hadley 949 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 102.7/1) 0.11% 0.09% 0.3% 0.21% T53
129 CAN Michael Gligic 949 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 102.7/1) 0.11% 0.09% 0.28% 0.19% MC
130 USA Kelly Kraft 949 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 102.7/1) 0.11% 0.09% 0.25% 0.16% MC
131 USA Curtis Thompson 949 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 102.7/1) 0.11% 0.09% 0.25% 0.16% MC
132 USA Bronson Burgoon 949 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 102.7/1) 0.11% 0.09% 0.25% 0.16% MC
133 USA Seth Reeves 949 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 102.7/1) 0.11% 0.09% 0.23% 0.14% MC
134 ENG David Skinns 949 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 102.7/1) 0.11% 0.09% 0.23% 0.14% T48
135 RSA Dawie van der Walt 949 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 102.7/1) 0.11% 0.09% 0.2% 0.11% MC
136 USA William McGirt 949 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 102.7/1) 0.11% 0.09% 0.18% 0.09% T48
137 USA Austin Cook 949 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 102.7/1) 0.11% 0.09% 0.13% 0.04% MC
138 USA Ben Kern 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.14% 0.06% WD
139 USA Shawn Stefani 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
140 USA Peter Uihlein 0% 0% 0% 0% T69
141 AUS Aaron Baddeley 0% 0% 0% 0% T18
142 KOR Kyounghoon Lee 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
143 CHI Guillermo Pereira 0% 0% 0% 0% T13
144 USA Scott Gutschewski 0% 0% 0% 0% T18
145 USA Jared Wolfe 0% 0% 0% 0% T29
146 USA Sam Saunders 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
147 USA Logan McAllister 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
148 USA Jake Kevorkian 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 8.7 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: -1.8 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Betfair Exchange 1 @ 1/1 12% 12%
2 William Hill 8 @ 1/5 53.1% 16.6%
3 Skybet 8 @ 1/5 54.3% 17.5%
4 Betfred 8 @ 1/5 57.8% 20.2%
5 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 36.8% 20.6%
6 Betway 8 @ 1/5 58.3% 20.6%
7 Betfair Sportsbook 8 @ 1/5 59.7% 21.7%
8 Paddy Power 8 @ 1/5 59.7% 21.7%
9 Boyle Sports 8 @ 1/5 65.9% 26.2%
10 Ladbrokes 8 @ 1/5 66.8% 27%
11 Coral 8 @ 1/5 66.8% 27%
12 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 46.5% 29.2%
13 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 46.6% 29.3%
14 888Sport 5 @ 1/4 53.9% 35.8%
15 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 54.9% 39.1%
16 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 57.1% 41.1%
17 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 59.1% 42.9%
18 Parimatch 6 @ 1/5 59.1% 42.9%
19 Sporting Index 5 @ 1/4 69.6% 49.6%
20 VBet 5 @ 1/4 78.5% 57.5%