Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 31.1 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 4.7 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.1 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.2

Total Won: 59.3

Total Profit: -40.9

3M Open

23/07/2020 - 26/07/2020

Up to date as of: 3 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 USA Dustin Johnson 11 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 8.33% 6.28% 2.68% -3.59% WD
2 USA Tony Finau 14 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 6.67% 5.02% 2.77% -2.25% T3
3 USA Brooks Koepka 14 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 6.67% 5.02% 1.84% -3.18% MC
4 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 16 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 5.88% 4.43% 2.08% -2.35% MC
5 USA Matthew Wolff 25 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.9% 1.39% -1.51% T12
6 ENG Paul Casey 25 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.9% 0.8% -2.09% MC
7 USA Russell Henley 33 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.21% 2.3% 0.09% MC 10.01
8 USA Harris English 33 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.21% 2.13% -0.09% T18
9 USA Bubba Watson 35 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.09% 1.69% -0.4% MC
10 USA Lucas Glover 35 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.09% 1.3% -0.79% MC
11 RSA Erik van Rooyen 35 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.09% 1.1% -0.99% MC
12 USA Sam Burns 45 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.64% 1.33% -0.31% T32
13 USA Luke List 50 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.48% 0.98% -0.49% T32
14 USA Doc Redman 50 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.48% 0.7% -0.78% MC
15 SWE Henrik Norlander 60 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.23% 1.56% 0.33% T23 5.58
16 USA Brian Harman 60 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.23% 0.62% -0.61% T41
17 USA Ryan Moore 60 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.23% 0.59% -0.65% T12
18 USA Max Homa 66 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.12% 2.5% 1.37% T3 (tied w/9) 5.08 +24.1
19 USA Patrick Rodgers 66 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.12% 1.71% 0.59% T32 5.08
20 AUT Sepp Straka 66 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.12% 0.91% -0.22% T18
21 USA Charley Hoffman 70 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.06% 1.51% 0.45% MC 4.8
22 VEN Jhonattan Vegas 70 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.06% 1.41% 0.35% MC 4.8
23 USA Troy Merritt 70 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.06% 0.89% -0.17% MC
24 USA William Gordon 80 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.93% 1.74% 0.81% MC 4.21
25 KOR Siwoo Kim 80 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.93% 0.94% 0.01% T46 4.21
26 USA Ryan Armour 80 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.93% 0.9% -0.03% MC 4.21
27 RSA Dylan Frittelli 80 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.93% 0.86% -0.07% T18
28 ESP Rafael Cabrera Bello 80 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.93% 0.83% -0.1% T32
29 USA Scott Stallings 80 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.93% 0.76% -0.17% T62
30 NOR Kristoffer Ventura 80 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.93% 0.58% -0.35% MC
31 SWE Alexander Noren 80 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.93% 0.44% -0.49% T3
32 USA Chris Kirk 80 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.93% 0.41% -0.52% T41
33 USA Sam Ryder 90 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.83% 1.32% 0.49% MC 3.74
34 USA Richy Werenski 90 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.83% 0.75% -0.08% T3
35 ENG Tom Lewis 90 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.83% 0.63% -0.19% T32
36 USA Charles Howell III 90 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.83% 0.57% -0.25% T3
37 USA Wyndham Clark 90 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.83% 0.5% -0.32% MC
38 USA Talor Gooch 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.75% 1.3% 0.55% T18 3.37
39 AUT Matthias Schwab 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.75% 0.79% 0.04% T32 3.37
40 RSA Branden Grace 100 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.75% 0.64% -0.1% MC
41 AUT Bernd Wiesberger 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.75% 0.63% -0.11% T26
42 ARG Emiliano Grillo 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.75% 0.61% -0.14% T3
43 USA Chase Seiffert 110 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.68% 2.49% 1.81% MC 3.07
44 USA Kyle Stanley 110 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.68% 0.7% 0.02% T32 3.07
45 USA Pat Perez 110 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.68% 0.7% 0.02% T23 3.07
46 USA Scott Piercy 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% 1.1% 0.51% MC 2.71
47 USA Adam Long 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% 1.03% 0.44% 2 2.71 +35.2
48 USA Chesson Hadley 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% 0.99% 0.4% MC 2.71
49 USA Keith Mitchell 125 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.6% 0.96% 0.36% MC 2.71
50 USA Adam Schenk 125 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% 0.81% 0.21% T41 2.71
51 KOR Kyounghoon Lee 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% 0.79% 0.19% 66 2.71
52 USA Matthew NeSmith 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% 0.64% 0.04% MC 2.71
53 USA Aaron Wise 125 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% 0.63% 0.04% MC 2.71
54 USA Jason Dufner 125 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% 0.62% 0.02% T32 2.71
55 USA Ben Martin 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.6% 0.6% 0% MC 2.71
56 USA Peter Uihlein 125 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% 0.58% -0.01% T62 2.71
57 USA Brice Garnett 125 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% 0.57% -0.02% T26 2.71
58 CHN Zhang Xinjun 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% 0.54% -0.05% T12
59 USA Michael Thompson 125 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.6% 0.49% -0.11% 1
60 USA Tom Hoge 140 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.71% 0.53% 0.75% 0.21% T46
61 USA Brandon Hagy 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% 0.88% 0.38% T46
62 USA Austin Cook 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% 0.82% 0.32% T56
63 USA Harry Higgs 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% 0.8% 0.3% MC
64 USA Joseph Bramlett 150 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% 0.65% 0.15% MC
65 USA Cameron Tringale 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% 0.64% 0.14% T3
66 USA Vaughn Taylor 150 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% 0.52% 0.03% MC
67 USA Wes Roach 150 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% 0.39% -0.11% MC
68 SCO Russell Knox 150 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% 0.27% -0.23% MC
69 KOR Seungyul Noh 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.43% 0.99% 0.56% WD
70 NZL Danny Lee 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.43% 0.65% 0.22% T26
71 USA Stewart Cink 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.43% 0.57% 0.14% T46
72 AUS Cameron Davis 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.43% 0.47% 0.04% T12
73 USA Chris Stroud 200 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.37% 1.1% 0.73% WD
74 USA Hudson Swafford 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.37% 0.98% 0.6% MC
75 RSA Charl Schwartzel 200 (VBet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.37% 0.81% 0.43% T3
76 USA Scott Harrington 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.37% 0.69% 0.32% MC
77 USA Denny McCarthy 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.37% 0.5% 0.12% T32
78 CAN Roger Sloan 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.37% 0.46% 0.08% MC
79 USA Bronson Burgoon 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.37% 0.4% 0.03% T41
80 USA Patton Kizzire 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.37% 0.38% 0% T46
81 IRL Seamus Power 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.8% 0.5% MC
82 USA J.J Spaun 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.76% 0.46% MC
83 USA Josh Teater 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.74% 0.44% T56
84 USA Beau Hossler 250 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.3% 0.45% 0.15% MC
85 USA Scott Brown 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.42% 0.12% MC
86 ENG Luke Donald 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0% MC
87 ARG Fabian Gomez 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% -0.1% MC
88 USA Sahith Theegala 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.17% -0.13% MC
89 USA Bo Hoag 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.17% -0.13% T12
90 USA Andrew Putnam 250 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.3% 0.15% -0.15% MC
91 USA Shawn Stefani 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.95% 0.7% MC
92 USA Brian Gay 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.25% 0.63% 0.38% MC
93 USA Kramer Hickok 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.44% 0.19% T58
94 USA George McNeill 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.39% 0.14% 64
95 USA Derek Ernst 300 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.25% 0.19% -0.06% MC
96 USA Johnson Wagner 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.17% -0.08% MC
97 USA Chris Baker 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.21% 0.67% 0.46% T41
98 USA Bill Haas 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.21% 0.53% 0.32% T58
99 AUS Aaron Baddeley 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.21% 0.31% 0.1% T23
100 USA Nick Watney 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.21% 0.25% 0.04% T12
101 KOR Sangmoon Bae 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.21% 0.19% -0.03% MC
102 AUS Cameron Percy 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.21% 0.18% -0.04% MC
103 NZL Tim Wilkinson 400 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.76% 0.57% T53
104 USA Vincent Whaley 400 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.57% 0.38% MC
105 AUS Rhein Gibson 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.54% 0.35% MC
106 USA Peter Malnati 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.19% 0.5% 0.31% MC
107 USA Roberto Castro 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.19% 0.4% 0.21% MC
108 USA Jamie Lovemark 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.19% 0.39% 0.21% MC
109 USA Zack Sucher 400 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.31% 0.12% MC
110 USA Hank Lebioda 400 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.3% 0.11% T26
111 USA Robby Shelton 400 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.27% 0.08% T3
112 USA Robert Streb 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.19% 0.26% 0.07% MC
113 USA Mark Anderson 400 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.26% 0.07% MC
114 USA Jonathan Byrd 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.15% 0.86% 0.71% MC
115 GER Alex Cejka 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.52% 0.37% T46
116 USA Rob Oppenheim 500 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.38% 0.23% MC
117 USA Ted Potter-jr 500 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.15% 0.26% 0.11% MC
118 USA Doug Ghim 500 (GentingBet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.25% 0.1% T18
119 USA D.J. Trahan 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.19% 0.04% MC
120 USA Ryan Blaum 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.15% 0.18% 0.03% MC
121 SWE David Lingmerth 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.18% 0.03% MC
122 CAN David Hearn 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.15% 0.17% 0.02% MC
123 USA Ryan Brehm 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.17% 0.02% MC
124 USA Tommy Gainey 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.16% 0.01% 67
125 IND Arjun Atwal 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.13% 0.23% 0.1% T53
126 USA Tyler McCumber 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.13% 0.2% 0.08% WD
127 USA Chad Campbell 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.13% 0.19% 0.07% MC
128 USA Chase Koepka 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.13% 0.17% 0.04% T26
129 USA Ricky Barnes 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.13% 0.17% 0.04% MC
130 ARG Nelson Ledesma 600 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.13% 0.17% 0.04% MC
131 ENG Benjamin Taylor 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.13% 0.17% 0.04% MC
132 AUS Greg Chalmers 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.13% 0.17% 0.04% MC
133 DEN Sebastian Cappelen 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.13% 0.15% 0.03% MC
134 USA Michael Gellerman 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.1% 0.25% 0.15% T46
135 USA Matt Every 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.1% 0.23% 0.13% 68
136 ZIM Brendon de Jonge 750 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.19% 0.09% MC
137 USA John Merrick 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.1% 0.19% 0.09% T58
138 SWE Daniel Chopra 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.1% 0.19% 0.09% MC
139 USA Dominic Bozzelli 750 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.1% 0.17% 0.07% MC
140 AUS John Senden 750 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.17% 0.07% MC
141 CAN Michael Gligic 750 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.16% 0.06% T26
142 USA Martin Trainer 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.44% 0.37% MC
143 USA Tom Lehman 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.18% 0.1% MC
144 USA Michael Kim 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.18% 0.1% MC
145 USA Peter Kuest 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% 0.17% 0.09% MC
146 USA Tim Herron 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% 0.15% 0.08% MC
147 USA Bo Van Pelt 1000 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% 0.15% 0.07% 65
148 USA Robert Garrigus 1500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.05% 0.15% 0.1% T53
149 USA Parker McLachlin 2000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.19% 0.15% MC
150 USA Ted Purdy 2000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.19% 0.15% MC
151 USA Rich Beem 2500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% 0.16% 0.13% MC
152 USA Hunter Mahan 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
153 KOR K.J. Choi 0% 0% 0% 0% 61
154 CAN Aaron Crawford 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
155 ENG Angus Flanagan 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
156 USA Jake Kneen 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 31.1 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 4.7 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 William Hill 8 @ 1/5 47.7% 14.3%
2 Skybet 8 @ 1/5 53.8% 19.1%
3 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 34.6% 20%
4 Sportingbet 6 @ 1/4 52.6% 22.8%
5 Betfair Sportsbook 8 @ 1/5 63.3% 26.5%
6 Paddy Power 8 @ 1/5 63.3% 26.5%
7 VBet 5 @ 1/4 42.6% 27.1%
8 GentingBet 7 @ 1/5 55% 29.8%
9 Boyle Sports 8 @ 1/5 68.2% 30.3%
10 Betfred 7 @ 1/5 57% 31.4%
11 Betway 7 @ 1/5 57% 31.4%
12 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 47.8% 34.7%
13 SportPesa 5 @ 1/4 51.2% 34.8%
14 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 51.2% 34.8%
15 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 51.2% 34.8%
16 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 53.3% 39.7%
17 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 61.2% 46.9%
18 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 61.2% 46.9%