Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 41.5 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 15.4 %

Total Probability Staked: 8.4 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.0

Total Won: 89.7

Total Profit: -10.3

Trophee Hassan II

25/04/2019 - 28/04/2019

Up to date as of: 3 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 NED Joost Luiten 16 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 5.88% 4.16% 1.79% -2.37% T25
2 PAR Fabrizio Zanotti 25 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.72% 1.68% -1.04% T63
3 ENG Andy Sullivan 25 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.72% 1.27% -1.45% T21
4 ESP Nacho Elvira 25 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.72% 1.16% -1.56% MC
5 ENG Jordan L Smith 25 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.72% 0.99% -1.73% T14
6 ESP Jorge Campillo 25 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.72% 0.88% -1.84% 1
7 USA Julian Suri 25 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.72% 0.66% -2.06% T2
8 RSA Erik van Rooyen 28 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.44% 1.07% -1.37% T2
9 FRA Alexander Levy 28 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.44% 0.84% -1.59% MC
10 FRA Victor Dubuisson 30 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 3.23% 2.28% 0.91% -1.37% T30
11 RSA Christiaan Bezuidenhout 35 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 1.96% 1.21% -0.75% T14
12 BEL Thomas Detry 40 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.72% 1.38% -0.35% T9 20.65
13 FRA Michael Lorenzo-Vera 40 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.72% 1.24% -0.48% T34
14 USA Kurt Kitayama 40 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.72% 0.91% -0.81% T14
15 IRL Paul Dunne 40 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.72% 0.83% -0.89% T38
16 ESP Adrian Otaegui 50 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.39% 1.85% 0.46% T25 16.6
17 ENG Tom Lewis 50 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.39% 1.27% -0.11% T21 16.6
18 SWE Alexander Bjork 50 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.39% 1.13% -0.25% T9
19 ESP Adria Arnaus 50 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.39% 1.02% -0.37% MC
20 FRA Romain Langasque 50 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.39% 1.01% -0.38% T38
21 USA David Lipsky 50 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.39% 0.94% -0.45% 5
22 GER Maximilian Kieffer 55 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.26% 1.16% -0.11% T49
23 FIN Mikko Korhonen 55 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.26% 0.97% -0.29% T30
24 ENG Paul Waring 60 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.16% 0.54% -0.61% T25
25 RSA Richard Sterne 66 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.05% 1.42% 0.36% T9 12.64
26 JPN Masahiro Kawamura 66 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.05% 1.27% 0.22% T6 (tied w/2) 12.64 +89.7
27 ITA Andrea Pavan 66 (Bet Victor: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.05% 0.69% -0.36% T21
28 ENG Callum Shinkwin 66 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.05% 0.68% -0.38% T60
29 AUT Matthias Schwab 66 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.05% 0.66% -0.39% T9
30 FRA Benjamin Hebert 66 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.05% 0.65% -0.4% T38
31 AUS Jason Scrivener 70 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1% 0.91% -0.08% MC
32 WAL Bradley Dredge 80 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.87% 1.16% 0.29% MC 10.45
33 SCO Scott Jamieson 80 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.87% 1.15% 0.28% MC 10.45
34 ENG Aaron Rai 80 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.87% 1.11% 0.23% MC
35 ESP Pablo Larrazabal 80 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.87% 1.1% 0.23% T38
36 NZL Josh Geary 80 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.87% 0.74% -0.14% MC
37 USA Sihwan Kim 80 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.87% 0.73% -0.14% MC
38 ENG Chris Paisley 80 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.87% 0.68% -0.19% T38
39 RSA Louis de Jager 80 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.87% 0.57% -0.31% MC
40 SCO Stephen Gallacher 90 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.78% 1.11% 0.33% T57
41 FRA Clement Sordet 90 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.78% 0.97% 0.19% T14
42 ENG Matthew Southgate 90 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.78% 0.7% -0.07% MC
43 USA Sean Crocker 90 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.78% 0.64% -0.13% T2
44 RSA Darren Fichardt 100 (William Hill: 6 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.7% 1.06% 0.36% MC
45 RSA Dean Burmester 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.7% 0.73% 0.03% MC
46 DEN Jeff Winther 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.7% 0.67% -0.03% T25
47 ENG Ashley Chesters 100 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.7% 0.63% -0.07% T38
48 DEN Joachim B Hansen 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.7% 0.53% -0.17% T38
49 ENG David Horsey 110 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.64% 0.81% 0.17% T60
50 ENG Oliver Wilson 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 1.1% 0.54% T54
51 ENG Chris Wood 125 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 0.87% 0.31% DQ
52 FRA Victor Perez 125 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 0.87% 0.31% MC
53 JPN Hideto Tanihara 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 0.81% 0.25% 71
54 ENG James Morrison 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 0.69% 0.13% T54
55 RSA Haydn Porteous 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 0.66% 0.1% MC
56 ITA Renato Paratore 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 0.65% 0.09% MC
57 DEN Soren Kjeldsen 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 0.59% 0.03% WD
58 FRA Adrien Saddier 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 0.57% 0.01% MC
59 SWE Anton Karlsson 125 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 0.57% 0.01% MC
60 FIN Kalle Samooja 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 0.5% -0.06% T38
61 ENG Oliver Fisher 125 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 0.48% -0.08% MC
62 KOR Jeunghun Wang 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 0.48% -0.09% MC
63 SCO David Drysdale 150 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 1.27% 0.8% MC
64 AUS Wade Ormsby 150 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 1.06% 0.59% T14
65 THA Thongchai Jaidee 150 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.99% 0.52% T9
66 SWE Marcus Kinhult 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.81% 0.34% MC
67 ENG Ross McGowan 150 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.74% 0.27% MC
68 SCO Robert MacIntyre 150 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.73% 0.26% MC
69 CHN Wu Ashun 150 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.67% 0.2% MC
70 ENG Jack Singh Brar 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.63% 0.16% MC
71 RSA Justin Walters 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.57% 0.11% T54
72 ITA Nino Bertasio 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.54% 0.07% MC
73 AUS Nick Cullen 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.53% 0.07% MC
74 SWE Peter Hanson 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.4% 0.78% 0.37% T38
75 AUS Jake McLeod 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.4% 0.7% 0.3% T30
76 ITA Guido Migliozzi 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.4% 0.52% 0.11% T25
77 SWE Sebastian Soderberg 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.4% 0.41% 0.01% T57
78 SCO Richie Ramsay 175 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.4% 0.41% 0% T57
79 SWE Robert Karlsson 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.88% 0.53% MC
80 RSA Zander Lombard 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.76% 0.41% MC
81 ESP Alvaro Quiros 200 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.72% 0.36% 70
82 ITA Lorenzo Gagli 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.59% 0.24% MC
83 SCO Marc Warren 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.57% 0.22% T68
84 ZIM Scott Vincent 200 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.5% 0.15% MC
85 POR Ricardo Gouveia 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.47% 0.12% T30
86 FRA Matthieu Pavon 200 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.4% 0.04% T49
87 KOR Jinho Choi 225 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.44% 0.31% 0.37% 0.06% MC
88 SWE Niklas Lemke 250 (William Hill: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 1.06% 0.78% MC
89 ENG Lee Slattery 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.28% 0.77% 0.49% T34
90 AUS Andrew Dodt 250 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.7% 0.42% WD
91 NIR Michael Hoey 250 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.64% 0.36% T34
92 SWE Joakim Lagergren 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.63% 0.35% MC
93 FRA Raphael Jacquelin 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.28% 0.62% 0.34% T60
94 ENG Matthew Nixon 250 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.54% 0.26% WD
95 ENG Matthew Baldwin 250 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.53% 0.24% MC
96 JPN Yusaku Miyazato 250 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.47% 0.19% MC
97 ITA Edoardo Molinari 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.28% 0.46% 0.18% T63
98 IRL Gavin Moynihan 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.44% 0.16% T63
99 ESP Alejandro Canizares 250 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.43% 0.15% T34
100 DEN Lasse Jensen 250 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.43% 0.15% T49
101 ENG Jack Senior 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.36% 0.08% T38
102 FRA Romain Wattel 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.75% 0.52% MC
103 FIN Kim Koivu 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.64% 0.41% T49
104 SCO Liam Johnston 300 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.63% 0.4% MC
105 FIN Tapio Pulkkanen 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.56% 0.33% 8
106 AUS Deyen Lawson 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.47% 0.23% MC
107 USA John Catlin 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.43% 0.2% MC
108 WAL Stuart Manley 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.39% 0.16% MC
109 ITA Matteo Manassero 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.38% 0.15% MC
110 AUS Dimi Papadatos 300 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.38% 0.14% T21
111 NOR Kristoffer Reitan 300 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.35% 0.12% T14
112 ENG Richard McEvoy 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.23% 0.34% 0.11% MC
113 ENG Jonathan Thomson 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.33% 0.09% MC
114 SWE Jens Dantorp 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.32% 0.08% MC
115 SWE Christofer Blomstrand 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.2% -0.03% MC
116 GER Hurly Long 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.16% -0.08% MC
117 SCO Grant Forrest 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.2% 0.65% 0.45% T6
118 GER Max Schmitt 350 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.2% 0.49% 0.29% MC
119 CHI Hugo Leon 350 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.2% 0.39% 0.19% MC
120 ENG Tom Murray 350 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.2% 0.39% 0.18% T68
121 ENG Laurie Canter 350 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.2% 0.33% 0.12% MC
122 FRA Julien Quesne 350 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.2% 0.32% 0.12% MC
123 RSA Jacques Kruyswijk 350 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.2% 0.32% 0.12% MC
124 ENG Max Orrin 350 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% MC
125 CAN Austin Connelly 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.2% 0.28% 0.08% MC
126 ENG Ryan Evans 350 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.2% 0.24% 0.04% MC
127 GER Marcel Siem 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.74% 0.56% T49
128 ENG Steven Brown 400 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.37% 0.2% T38
129 ESP Pedro Oriol 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.35% 0.17% MC
130 GER Bernd Ritthammer 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.34% 0.17% MC
131 ENG David Howell 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.59% 0.45% MC
132 ENG Ben Evans 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.56% 0.42% MC
133 SCO David Law 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.52% 0.38% T14
134 SUI Joel Girrbach 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.45% 0.31% 67
135 ESP David Borda Antonana 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.43% 0.29% MC
136 POR Pedro Figueiredo 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.39% 0.25% MC
137 SWE Per Langfors 500 (William Hill: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.33% 0.19% MC
138 KOR Hyowon Park 500 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.27% 0.13% T63
139 NOR Espen Kofstad 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.26% 0.12% MC
140 CAN Aaron Cockerill 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.24% 0.09% MC
141 ESP Ivan Cantero Gutierrez 500 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.23% 0.09% MC
142 ITA Filippo Bergamaschi 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.18% 0.04% MC
143 GUA Jose Toledo 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.16% 0.01% MC
144 GER Philipp Mejow 600 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.12% 0.18% 0.07% MC
145 NOR Kristian Krogh Johannessen 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.07% 0.42% 0.35% MC
146 ENG Daniel Gavins 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.24% 0.17% MC
147 ENG Scott Gregory 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.17% 0.1% MC
148 MAR Ahmed Marjane 1500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.05% 0.16% 0.11% MC
149 ESP Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 0% 0% 0.71% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 41.5 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 15.4 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
...