Which algorithm to choose?

- Tips around 5 golfers per event; high risk, high reward

Pros

- Highest return on investment over the long term
- Potential big wins

Cons

- Could go a long time without a win
- High risk means a bigger starting bank is requried (or smaller stakes per event)

- Tips around 17 - 27 golfers per event; spreading the stakes to reduce risk

Pros

- Safer, so you can stake a greater percentage of your bank per event (or start with a smaller bank)
- More consistent returns so you can take advantage of compound interest

Cons

- Requires more effort to place bets on so many golfers

Profit

At £10 per point.

ROI

As a % of inital bank.

From Jan 1st '18 till now

Avg. Monthly Profit

At £10 per point.

Strike Rate

Percent of events with positive return.

Winner Strike Rate

Risk

Divide your starting bank by this num = what you should stake per event. Lower the better.

21.9 Tips per event

Profit

At £10 per point.

ROI

As a % of inital bank.

From Jan 1st '18 till now

Avg. Monthly Profit

At £10 per point.

Strike Rate

Percent of events with positive return.

Winner Strike Rate

Risk

Divide your starting bank by this num = what you should stake per event. Lower the better.

Notice the difference in 'smoothness' between the two graphs. This smoothness defines how frequently we can safely increase our stakes and reinvest our winnings, and thus take advantage of the wonders of compound interest.

The smoothness is quantified in the 'Risk' metirc.

The 'risk' is defined by maximum loss potential relative to the amount staked per event and starting bank. e.g. Starting with a bank of 100 points, a risk of 20 would mean we should only stake 5 points per event (100/20) with roughly a 95% chance of never losing the entire bank. Note: the risk metric is calculated over thousands of iterations with shuffled event orders taking the max from each and then 2 standard deviations above the mean of these maximums.

Compound interest is the 8th wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it; he who doesn't, pays it - Einstein

The below graphs simulate increasing the stakes when the bank balance is high enough to safely do so. Because Algorithm 2 is safer, we can increase stakes more quickly with this algorithm.

Profit

At £10 per point.

ROI

As a % of inital bank.

From Jan 1st '18 till now

Avg. Monthly Profit

At £10 per point.

Strike Rate

Percent of events with positive return.

Winner Strike Rate

Risk

Divide your starting bank by this num = what you should stake per event. Lower the better.

Profit

At £10 per point.

ROI

As a % of inital bank.

From Jan 1st '18 till now

Avg. Monthly Profit

At £10 per point.

Strike Rate

Percent of events with positive return.

Winner Strike Rate

Risk

Divide your starting bank by this num = what you should stake per event. Lower the better.