Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 6.3 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: -5.5 %

Total Probability Staked: 23.3 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 43.7

Total Profit: -56.4

Dubai Invitational

11/01/2024 - 14/01/2024

Up to date as of: 3 months ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 NIR Rory McIlroy 3 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 1.2/1) 25% 23.36% 4.05% -19.32% 2
2 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 8.61 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 2.6/1) 10.41% 9.72% 4.89% -4.84% 1
3 DEN Nicolai Hojgaard 13.2 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 3.5/1) 7.04% 6.58% 4.43% -2.15% 25
4 POL Adrian Meronk 18.6 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 4.4/1) 5.1% 4.77% 2.8% -1.97% 10
5 DEN Rasmus Hojgaard 20 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 4.7/1) 4.76% 4.45% 2.25% -2.2% 11
6 DEN Thorbjorn Olesen 22 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 5/1) 4.35% 4.06% 2.59% -1.47% 8
7 NZL Ryan Fox 25 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 5.5/1) 3.85% 3.59% 2.53% -1.06% 14
8 ENG Jordan L Smith 36 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 7.1/1) 2.7% 2.53% 2.84% 0.32% 4 10.83 +43.7
9 RSA Thriston Lawrence 40 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 7.6/1) 2.44% 2.28% 2.55% 0.27% 2
10 GER Yannik Paul 46 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 8.4/1) 2.13% 1.99% 2.36% 0.37% 8 8.53
11 ENG Dan Bradbury 50 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.83% 1.24% -0.59% 30
12 ESP Adrian Otaegui 53 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 11.1/1) 1.85% 1.73% 1.75% 0.02% 20
13 SCO Ewen Ferguson 58 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 11.8/1) 1.69% 1.58% 2.03% 0.45% 11 6.79
14 FRA Antoine Rozner 58 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 11.8/1) 1.69% 1.58% 1.87% 0.28% 32
15 SWE Sebastian Soderberg 63 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 12.5/1) 1.56% 1.46% 2.65% 1.19% 23 6.26
16 DEN Marcus Helligkilde 66 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.39% 1.85% 0.46% 5.98
17 RSA Hennie Du Plessis 66 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.39% 0.95% -0.45% 23
18 ESP Jorge Campillo 68 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 13.2/1) 1.45% 1.35% 2.8% 1.45% 32 5.81
19 RSA Zander Lombard 73 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 13.9/1) 1.35% 1.26% 1.69% 0.42% 6 5.42
20 SCO Connor Syme 77 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 14.5/1) 1.28% 1.2% 2.48% 1.28% 40 5.14
21 ENG Nathan Kimsey 77 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 14.5/1) 1.28% 1.2% 2.26% 1.06% 28 5.14
22 GER Marcel Siem 77 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 14.5/1) 1.28% 1.2% 2.14% 0.94% 36 5.14
23 DEN Jeff Winther 80 (Spreadex: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 1.15% 1.77% 0.62% 25 4.95
24 FRA Julien Guerrier 82 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 15.1/1) 1.2% 1.13% 2.51% 1.39% 14 4.83
25 NED Joost Luiten 87 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 15.8/1) 1.14% 1.06% 2.58% 1.52% 14 4.56
26 FRA Romain Langasque 87 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 15.8/1) 1.14% 1.06% 2.43% 1.36% 14 4.56
27 NIR Tom McKibbin 87 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 15.8/1) 1.14% 1.06% 1.61% 0.55% 25 4.56
28 ENG Richard Mansell 92 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 16.4/1) 1.08% 1% 1.34% 0.33% 14 4.31
29 SCO Grant Forrest 97 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 17.1/1) 1.02% 0.95% 1.97% 1.02% 30 4.09
30 SCO Calum Hill 117 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 19.5/1) 0.85% 0.79% 1.09% 0.3% 32
31 NZL Daniel Hillier 117 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 19.5/1) 0.85% 0.79% 0.93% 0.13% 36
32 USA Sean Crocker 125 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.74% 1.37% 0.63% 6 3.18
33 ESP Adria Arnaus 125 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.74% 0.77% 0.03%
34 FIN Kalle Samooja 126 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 20.6/1) 0.79% 0.74% 0.92% 0.18% 36
35 SCO Richie Ramsay 136 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 21.7/1) 0.73% 0.68% 1.55% 0.87%
36 ENG Daniel A Brown 166 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 25.1/1) 0.6% 0.56% 3.27% 2.71% 43
37 ESP Pablo Larrazabal 166 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 25.1/1) 0.6% 0.56% 0.91% 0.35% 20
38 FRA Julien Brun 175 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 26/1) 0.57% 0.53% 1.29% 0.76%
39 ITA Guido Migliozzi 175 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 26/1) 0.57% 0.53% 0.88% 0.35% 13
40 ENG Marcus Armitage 175 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 26/1) 0.57% 0.53% 0.81% 0.27% 43
41 GER Nick Bachem 205 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 29.1/1) 0.49% 0.45% 1.11% 0.66% 43
42 GER Maximilian Kieffer 205 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 29.1/1) 0.49% 0.45% 0.67% 0.21% 48
43 SWE Jens Dantorp 234 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 32/1) 0.43% 0.4% 1.48% 1.08%
44 ENG Luke Donald 254 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 39.2/1) 0.39% 0.37% 1.02% 0.65% 20
45 ITA Francesco Molinari 254 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 39.2/1) 0.39% 0.37% 0.68% 0.31% 5
46 ENG Matthew Southgate 264 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 40.3/1) 0.38% 0.35% 0.85% 0.5% 47
47 ENG Matthew Baldwin 273 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 41.3/1) 0.36% 0.34% 1.65% 1.31% 48
48 ENG Callum Shinkwin 303 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 44.6/1) 0.33% 0.31% 0.62% 0.31%
49 ESP Nacho Elvira 352 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 49.8/1) 0.28% 0.26% 1.21% 0.95% 28
50 CHN Wu Ashun 362 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 50.8/1) 0.28% 0.26% 1.25% 0.99% 48
51 SWE Simon Forsstrom 362 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 50.8/1) 0.28% 0.26% 0.76% 0.51%
52 ENG Todd Clements 411 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 55.7/1) 0.24% 0.23% 1.06% 0.83% 40
53 GER Hurly Long 500 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.19% 1.43% 1.24% 48
54 ENG Dale Whitnell 500 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.19% 0.62% 0.43% 48
55 ENG Daniel Gavins 750 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.12% 0.47% 0.34%
56 ENG Oliver Wilson 979 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 105/1) 0.1% 0.1% 0.81% 0.72% 36
57 RSA Ockie Strydom 1000 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.09% 0.51% 0.42% 40
58 DEN Thomas Bjorn 1500 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.06% 0.47% 0.41% 32
59 CHN Shao Yong-liang 1500 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.06% 0.34% 0.27%
60 CHN Hao Tong Li 0% 0% 0% 0% 14

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 6.3 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: -5.5 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Unibet 5 @ 1/4 45.7% 27.5%
2 BetUK 5 @ 1/4 45.7% 27.5%
3 BetMGM UK 5 @ 1/4 45.7% 27.5%
4 Spreadex 5 @ 1/4 46.3% 28.1%
5 Sporting Index 5 @ 1/4 46.3% 28.1%
6 Skybet 5 @ 1/4 46.6% 28.4%
7 VBet 5 @ 1/4 46.6% 28.4%
8 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 46.5% 28.4%
9 Betfair Sportsbook 6 @ 1/5 47.4% 30.7%
10 Paddy Power 6 @ 1/5 47.5% 30.8%
11 10Bet 6 @ 1/5 47.8% 31.1%
12 LiveScore Bet 5 @ 1/4 50.1% 31.4%
13 888Sport 5 @ 1/4 50.3% 31.6%
14 Bet Victor 5 @ 1/4 50.9% 32.1%
15 Betfred 5 @ 1/4 51.3% 32.5%
16 BoyleSports 8 @ 1/5 79.6% 36.1%
17 Star Sports 6 @ 1/5 53.8% 36.4%
18 Betway 6 @ 1/5 57.9% 40%
19 Ladbrokes 7 @ 1/5 71.8% 40.3%
20 Coral 7 @ 1/5 71.8% 40.3%
21 QuinnBet 5 @ 1/4 66.2% 45.5%
22 BetGoodwin 5 @ 1/4 66.2% 45.5%
23 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 65.7% 46.9%