Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 12.3 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: -0.8 %

Total Probability Staked: 23.1 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 33.6

Total Profit: -66.5

Fortinet Australian PGA Championship

23/11/2023 - 26/11/2023

Up to date as of: 5 months ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 AUS Cameron Smith 4.6 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 1.7/1) 17.86% 15.5% 3.51% -11.99% MC
2 AUS Minwoo Lee 7 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 2.2/1) 12.5% 10.85% 4.61% -6.24% 1
3 AUS Adam Scott 12.6 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 3.4/1) 7.35% 6.38% 4.54% -1.84% 6
4 AUS Cameron Davis 13.2 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 3.5/1) 7.04% 6.11% 3.45% -2.67% T7
5 POL Adrian Meronk 15.6 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 3.9/1) 6.02% 5.23% 2.67% -2.56% T40
6 CHI Joaquin Niemann 18 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 4.3/1) 5.26% 4.57% 1.79% -2.78% 5
7 JPN Ryo Hisatsune 24 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 5.3/1) 4% 3.47% 4% 0.53% T13 15.02
8 AUS Marc Leishman 26 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 5.6/1) 3.7% 3.21% 0.34% -2.87% 3
9 AUS Lucas Herbert 28 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 5.9/1) 3.45% 2.99% 1.08% -1.91% T7
10 AUS David Micheluzzi 28 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.99% 0.49% -2.5% T18
11 AUS Jason Scrivener 40 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 2.44% 2.12% 1.84% -0.28% T61 9.16
12 SCO Robert MacIntyre 42 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 7.9/1) 2.33% 2.02% 3.12% 1.1% T33 8.73
13 NZL Daniel Hillier 48 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 8.7/1) 2.04% 1.77% 3.31% 1.54% T61 7.67
14 ENG Laurie Canter 50 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.7% 1.59% -0.11% T54 7.37
15 USA Sean Crocker 50 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.7% 1.5% -0.2% MC 7.37
16 NIR Tom McKibbin 52 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 10.9/1) 1.89% 1.64% 1.65% 0.01% T67 7.09
17 ENG Alex Fitzpatrick 63 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 12.5/1) 1.56% 1.36% 2.02% 0.67% T18 5.87
18 SCO Calum Hill 66 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.3% 2.52% 1.23% T15 5.61
19 ENG Eddie Pepperell 66 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.3% 0.98% -0.31% MC 5.61
20 ENG Richard Mansell 77 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 14.5/1) 1.28% 1.11% 1.81% 0.7% T22 4.82
21 AUS Curtis Luck 80 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 1.07% 0.34% -0.73% 4
22 SCO Connor Syme 82 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 15.1/1) 1.2% 1.05% 2.11% 1.06% T13 4.53
23 SCO Grant Forrest 92 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 16.4/1) 1.08% 0.93% 1.7% 0.76% T33 4.04
24 VEN Jhonattan Vegas 92 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 16.4/1) 1.08% 0.93% 0.34% -0.59% MC
25 JPN Kazuki Higa 100 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.86% 0.85% -0.01% T47 3.72
26 JPN Rikuya Hoshino 107 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 18.3/1) 0.93% 0.8% 1.34% 0.54% 2 3.48 +33.6
27 AUS Haydn Barron 125 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.69% 0.37% -0.32% T51
28 FRA Alexander Levy 200 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.43% 0.83% 0.39% MC
29 ESP Rafael Cabrera Bello 200 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.43% 0.75% 0.32% T7
30 NZL Kazuma Kobori 200 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.43% 0.34% -0.09% MC
31 AUS Jack Thompson 200 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.43% 0.34% -0.09% T22
32 DEN John Axelsen 250 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.35% 0.96% 0.62% MC
33 AUS Elvis Smylie 250 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.35% 0.42% 0.07% T40
34 AUS Harrison Crowe 250 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.35% 0.37% 0.02% MC
35 AUS Wade Ormsby 250 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.35% 0.34% -0.01% MC
36 AUS Jake McLeod 250 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.35% 0.34% -0.01% MC
37 AUS Cameron John 250 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.35% 0.34% -0.01% T22
38 AUS Jediah Morgan 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.35% 0.34% -0.01% MC
39 USA John Catlin 300 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.29% 0.69% 0.4% T29
40 ESP Alfredo Garcia-Heredia 300 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.29% 0.59% 0.31% T47
41 AUS Deyen Lawson 300 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.29% 0.34% 0.05%
42 AUS Maverick Antcliff 300 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.29% 0.34% 0.05% T15
43 AUS Zach Murray 300 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.29% 0.34% 0.05% MC
44 AUS Connor McKinney 300 (10bet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.29% 0.32% 0.03% T29
45 DEN Soren Kjeldsen 400 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.22% 0.94% 0.73% MC
46 BEL Nicolas Colsaerts 400 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.22% 0.61% 0.39% MC
47 IRL Conor Purcell 400 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.22% 0.58% 0.36% T61
48 USA Julian Suri 400 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.22% 0.56% 0.35% T61
49 NZL Josh Geary 400 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.22% 0.34% 0.12% T40
50 AUS Brett Coletta 400 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.22% 0.34% 0.12% T54
51 AUT Lukas Nemecz 401 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 54.7/1) 0.25% 0.22% 0.91% 0.69% T18
52 IRL Mark Power 430 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 57.6/1) 0.23% 0.2% 1.04% 0.84% MC
53 AUS Nathan Barbieri 489 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 63.3/1) 0.2% 0.18% 0.34% 0.16% MC
54 AUS Jordan Zunic 500 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.17% 1.01% 0.84% T51
55 AUS Geoff Ogilvy 500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.17% 0.58% 0.41% T70
56 AUS Rhein Gibson 500 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.17% 0.34% 0.17% MC
57 ENG Steven Brown 500 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.17% 0.34% 0.17% MC
58 AUS Todd Sinnott 500 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.17% 0.34% 0.17% T7
59 AUS Ben Eccles 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.17% 0.34% 0.17% T47
60 AUS Anthony Quayle 500 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.17% 0.34% 0.17% MC
61 AUS Austin Bautista 500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.17% 0.34% 0.17% T70
62 AUS John Lyras 500 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.17% 0.34% 0.17% T22
63 AUS Lawry Flynn 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.17% 0.34% 0.17% T40
64 AUS Hayden Hopewell 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.17% 0.34% 0.17% T33
65 FRA Gregory Bourdy 500 (Star Sports: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.17% 0.33% 0.16%
66 NED Lars Van Meijel 750 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.12% 2.07% 1.95% MC
67 ENG David Horsey 750 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.12% 0.5% 0.39% T70
68 AUS Daniel Gale 750 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.12% 0.37% 0.26% T67
69 FRA Pierre Pineau 750 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.12% 0.35% 0.24% MC
70 AUS Scott Hend 750 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.12% 0.34% 0.22% MC
71 AUS Brett Rumford 750 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.12% 0.34% 0.22% T33
72 AUS Andrew Dodt 750 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.12% 0.34% 0.22% T40
73 SCO Michael Hendry 750 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.12% 0.34% 0.22% T15
74 AUS Sam Brazel 750 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.12% 0.34% 0.22% T22
75 AUS Michael Sim 750 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.12% 0.34% 0.22% MC
76 AUS Matthew Millar 750 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.12% 0.34% 0.22% 80
77 AUS Christopher Wood 750 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.12% 0.34% 0.22% MC
78 AUS Jarryd Felton 750 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.12% 0.34% 0.22% MC
79 AUS James Marchesani 750 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.12% 0.34% 0.22% 75
80 NZL Nick Voke 750 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.12% 0.34% 0.22% T29
81 AUS Andrew Martin 750 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.12% 0.34% 0.22% T54
82 AUS Nick Flanagan 750 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.12% 0.34% 0.22% MC
83 AUS Kade McBride 750 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.12% 0.34% 0.22% T76
84 AUS Aaron Wilkin 750 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.12% 0.34% 0.22% T61
85 ESP Joel Moscatel Nachshon 750 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.12% 0.34% 0.22% T7
86 Jak Carter 750 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.12% 0.34% 0.22% T76
87 WAL Oliver Farr 750 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.12% 0.33% 0.22% MC
88 USA Jordan Gumberg 750 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.12% 0.3% 0.18% MC
89 AUS Justin Warren 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.34% 0.25% T40
90 AUS Josh Armstrong 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.34% 0.25% T61
91 GER Marc Hammer 1000 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.09% 0.94% 0.85% MC
92 USA Gunner Wiebe 1000 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.59% 0.51% MC
93 AUS Blake Windred 1000 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.46% 0.37% MC
94 ENG Richard McEvoy 1000 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.4% 0.31% MC
95 USA Derek Ackerman 1000 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.34% 0.26% T51
96 AUS Marcus Fraser 1000 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.34% 0.25% MC
97 AUS Matthew Griffin 1000 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.09% 0.34% 0.25% T22
98 AUS Adam Bland 1000 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.34% 0.25% T67
99 AUS Terry Pilkadaris 1000 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.34% 0.25% MC
100 AUS Josh Younger 1000 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.34% 0.25% MC
101 AUS Lincoln Tighe 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.34% 0.25% MC
102 AUS Andrew Kelly 1000 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.34% 0.25% T22
103 AUS Brady Watt 1000 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.34% 0.25% MC
104 AUS Aaron Pike 1000 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.34% 0.25% MC
105 AUS Tim Hart 1000 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.34% 0.25% MC
106 AUS Peter Wilson 1000 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.09% 0.34% 0.25% MC
107 ISL Haraldur Magnus 1000 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.34% 0.25% T33
108 AUS Brett Rankin 1000 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.34% 0.25% MC
109 AUS Simon Hawkes 1000 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.34% 0.25% T76
110 AUS Matias Sanchez 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.34% 0.25%
111 USA Joshua Creel 1000 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.34% 0.25%
112 AUS Shae Wools-Cobb 1000 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.34% 0.25% MC
113 AUS Tom Power Horan 1000 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.34% 0.25% MC
114 NZL Denzel Ieremia 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.34% 0.25% MC
115 AUS Ben Wharton 1000 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.34% 0.25% MC
116 AUS Jay Mackenzie 1000 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.34% 0.25% MC
117 AUS Jack Murdoch 1000 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.34% 0.25% T40
118 KOR Changgi Lee 1000 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.34% 0.25% MC
119 AUS Andrew Campbell 1000 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.34% 0.25% T54
120 AUS Louis Dobbelaar 1000 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.34% 0.25% MC
121 AUS Andre Lautee 1000 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.34% 0.25% MC
122 AUS Kyle Michel 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.34% 0.25% T54
123 ITA Pietro Bovari 1000 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.34% 0.25% T29
124 Kit Bittle 1000 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.34% 0.25% MC
125 Darcy Brereton 1000 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.34% 0.25% MC
126 Lachlan Barker 1000 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.09% 0.34% 0.25% T33
127 ENG Frank Kennedy 1000 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.28% 0.19% T7
128 AUS Scott Strange 1500 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.06% 0.34% 0.28% T33
129 USA Chris Crabtree 1500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.06% 0.34% 0.28% MC
130 AUS Ben Ferguson(Mar1973) 1500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.06% 0.34% 0.28%
131 AUS John Senden 2000 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.34% 0.3% MC
132 AUS Rod Pampling 2000 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.34% 0.3% T70
133 AUS Jack Munro 2000 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.05% 0.04% 0.34% 0.3% MC
134 AUS Peter Lonard 2000 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.34% 0.3% MC
135 ENG David Howell 2500 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% 0.46% 0.42% MC
136 AUS Anthony Choat 2500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.04% 0.03% 0.34% 0.31% T54
137 Toby Walker 2500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.04% 0.03% 0.34% 0.31% MC
138 AUS Dimi Papadatos 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
139 BRA Rafael Becker 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
140 AUS Matthew Stieger 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
141 AUS Peter Cooke 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
142 AUS David Klein 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
143 AUS Samuel Eaves 0% 0% 0% 0% T54
144 AUS Matt Docking 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
145 AUS James Gibellini 0% 0% 0% 0% T76
146 GER Philipp Katich 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
147 AUS Jeffrey Guan 0% 0% 0% 0% T18
148 James Mee 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
149 Tyron-Jaye Gooding-King 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
150 Zinyo Garcia 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
151 Dillon Hart 0% 0% 0% 0% T47
152 Sungjin Yeo 0% 0% 0% 0% T70
153 Ben Ferguson(June1998) 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
154 Kerry Mountcastle 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
155 Joshua Greer 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
156 Levi Sclater 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
157 Rhys Thomas 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
158 Sam Jones 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 12.3 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: -0.8 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Betfair Exchange 1 @ 1/1 17.1% 10.7%
2 LiveScore Bet 5 @ 1/4 40% 24.3%
3 Star Sports 7 @ 1/5 50.4% 25.1%
4 Betway 7 @ 1/5 52.6% 26.9%
5 Betfred 5 @ 1/4 43.2% 27.1%
6 Bet Victor 5 @ 1/4 46.5% 30%
7 BoyleSports 8 @ 1/5 68.6% 30.2%
8 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 48.1% 31.3%
9 Betfair Sportsbook 7 @ 1/5 58.7% 31.9%
10 Paddy Power 7 @ 1/5 58.7% 31.9%
11 Ladbrokes 5 @ 1/4 51.4% 34.3%
12 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 49.4% 34.9%
13 BetUK 6 @ 1/5 49.4% 34.9%
14 BetMGM UK 6 @ 1/5 49.4% 34.9%
15 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 49.5% 35%
16 VBet 5 @ 1/4 53% 35.7%
17 Coral 6 @ 1/5 51.5% 36.8%
18 William Hill 7 @ 1/5 66.4% 38.4%
19 Skybet 6 @ 1/5 54.3% 39.4%
20 10Bet 6 @ 1/5 54.5% 39.5%
21 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 59% 43.6%
22 Sporting Index 6 @ 1/5 59% 43.6%