Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 9.8 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: -0.2 %

Total Probability Staked: 24.3 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 113.5

Total Profit: +13.4

The Sentry

04/01/2024 - 07/01/2024

Up to date as of: 4 months ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 USA Scottie Scheffler 5.49 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 1.9/1) 15.41% 13.94% 3.42% -10.52% 5
2 NOR Viktor Hovland 10.3 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 2.9/1) 8.85% 8% 4.72% -3.28% 22
3 USA Max Homa 13.7 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 3.6/1) 6.8% 6.15% 3.25% -2.9% 14
4 USA Collin Morikawa 14 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 6.67% 6.03% 2.04% -3.99% 5
5 SWE Ludvig Aberg 16 (Spreadex: 5 @ 1/4) 5.88% 5.32% 2.85% -2.47% 29
6 USA Patrick Cantlay 16 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 5.88% 5.32% 1.24% -4.08% 12
7 USA Xander Schauffele 17.6 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 4.3/1) 5.38% 4.86% 2.21% -2.65% 10
8 USA Jordan Spieth 25 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 3.85% 3.48% 2.34% -1.14% 3
9 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 28 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 3.45% 3.12% 1.92% -1.19% 14
10 KOR Woohyun Kim 28 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 5.9/1) 3.45% 3.12% 0.18% -2.94%
11 USA Tony Finau 32 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 6.5/1) 3.03% 2.74% 1.93% -0.81% 38
12 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 36 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 7.1/1) 2.7% 2.44% 2% -0.44% 14 10.05
13 KOR Sungjae Im 40 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 7.6/1) 2.44% 2.21% 2.3% 0.09% 5 (tied w/5) 9.07 +7.8
14 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 40 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 7.6/1) 2.44% 2.21% 1.57% -0.64% 14
15 USA Rickie Fowler 42 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 7.9/1) 2.33% 2.1% 1.07% -1.03% 23
16 USA Russell Henley 48 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 8.7/1) 2.04% 1.85% 2.04% 0.2% 24 7.59
17 USA Sam Burns 48 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 8.7/1) 2.04% 1.85% 1.92% 0.07% 33 7.59
18 AUS Jason Day 58 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 11.8/1) 1.69% 1.53% 1.82% 0.28% 10 6.31
19 USA Cameron Young 58 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 11.8/1) 1.69% 1.53% 1.44% -0.1% 33 6.31
20 USA Brian Harman 66 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.35% 3.56% 2.21% 5 (tied w/5) 5.55 +9.7
21 AUT Sepp Straka 66 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.35% 3.23% 1.88% 12 5.55
22 JPN Hideki Matsuyama 77 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 14.5/1) 1.28% 1.16% 1.33% 0.17% 4.77
23 USA Sahith Theegala 80 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 1.12% 1.75% 0.63% 2 4.59 +48.2
24 AUS Cameron Davis 80 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 1.12% 1.47% 0.36% 42 4.59
25 USA Eric Cole 82 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 15.1/1) 1.2% 1.09% 2.26% 1.17% 14 4.48
26 USA Wyndham Clark 82 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 15.1/1) 1.2% 1.09% 1.21% 0.12% 10 4.48
27 ENG Justin Rose 100 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.9% 1.22% 0.32% 40 3.69
28 USA Keegan Bradley 107 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 18.3/1) 0.93% 0.84% 0.93% 0.09% 45 3.45
29 USA Denny McCarthy 117 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 19.5/1) 0.85% 0.77% 1.63% 0.87% 34 3.16
30 KOR Byeong Hun An 125 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.72% 1.74% 1.02% 4 2.96 +47.7
31 KOR Siwoo Kim 125 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.72% 0.59% -0.13% 25 2.96
32 CAN Corey Conners 126 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 20.6/1) 0.79% 0.71% 1.73% 1.02% 33 2.93
33 USA JT Poston 136 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 21.7/1) 0.73% 0.66% 2.14% 1.48% 5
34 USA Harris English 175 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 26/1) 0.57% 0.51% 1.23% 0.71% 14
35 USA Lucas Glover 185 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 27.1/1) 0.54% 0.49% 3.45% 2.96% 29
36 SWE Vincent Norrman 195 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 28.1/1) 0.51% 0.46% 2.52% 2.05% 71
37 USA Brendon Todd 195 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 28.1/1) 0.51% 0.46% 1.26% 0.8% 33
38 USA Luke List 195 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 28.1/1) 0.51% 0.46% 0.9% 0.44% 22
39 CAN Adam Svensson 205 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 29.1/1) 0.49% 0.44% 1.77% 1.33% 33
40 USA Akshay Bhatia 224 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 31/1) 0.44% 0.4% 1.56% 1.16% 14
41 COL Camilo Villegas 250 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.36% 1.62% 1.26%
42 ENG Matt Wallace 254 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 39.2/1) 0.39% 0.35% 1.9% 1.55% 40
43 USA Kurt Kitayama 254 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 39.2/1) 0.39% 0.35% 1.22% 0.87% 29
44 RSA Erik van Rooyen 273 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 41.3/1) 0.36% 0.33% 1.38% 1.05% 22
45 USA Chris Kirk 273 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 41.3/1) 0.36% 0.33% 0.89% 0.56% 1
46 USA Mackenzie Hughes 283 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 42.4/1) 0.35% 0.32% 1.22% 0.9% 25
47 USA Andrew Putnam 293 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 43.5/1) 0.34% 0.31% 1.47% 1.16% 40
48 USA Tom Hoge 293 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 43.5/1) 0.34% 0.31% 1.21% 0.91% 38
49 USA Adam Schenk 293 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 43.5/1) 0.34% 0.31% 1.05% 0.75% 29
50 USA Patrick Rodgers 293 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 43.5/1) 0.34% 0.31% 0.96% 0.66% 14
51 CAN Nick Taylor 313 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 45.7/1) 0.32% 0.29% 1.41% 1.12% 51
52 CAN Adam Hadwin 322 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 46.6/1) 0.31% 0.28% 1.39% 1.11% 14
53 ARG Emiliano Grillo 322 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 46.6/1) 0.31% 0.28% 0.85% 0.57% 43
54 USA Taylor Moore 332 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 47.7/1) 0.3% 0.27% 1.67% 1.4% 25
55 USA Davis Riley 401 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 54.7/1) 0.25% 0.22% 0.65% 0.43% 140
56 IRL Seamus Power 440 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 58.6/1) 0.23% 0.21% 0.58% 0.37% 82
57 USA Lee Hodges 450 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 59.6/1) 0.22% 0.2% 1.64% 1.44% 59
58 USA Nick Hardy 489 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 63.3/1) 0.2% 0.18% 0.87% 0.68% 150
59 COL Nicolas Echavarria 500 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.18% 0.29% 0.11% 25
60 KOR Tom Kim 0% 0% 0% 0% 11

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 9.8 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: -0.2 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Betfair Exchange 1 @ 1/1 11% 1.7%
2 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 40.1% 22.1%
3 Skybet 5 @ 1/4 43.3% 24.9%
4 LiveScore Bet 5 @ 1/4 44.3% 25.7%
5 Unibet 5 @ 1/4 44.4% 25.9%
6 BetUK 5 @ 1/4 44.4% 25.9%
7 BetMGM UK 5 @ 1/4 44.4% 25.9%
8 Bet Victor 5 @ 1/4 45.1% 26.4%
9 Betfred 5 @ 1/4 45.5% 26.8%
10 Betway 6 @ 1/5 45% 28.1%
11 888Sport 5 @ 1/4 47.5% 28.6%
12 10Bet 6 @ 1/5 46.3% 29.2%
13 QuinnBet 5 @ 1/4 48.5% 29.4%
14 BetGoodwin 5 @ 1/4 48.5% 29.4%
15 Star Sports 6 @ 1/5 48.1% 30.8%
16 Ladbrokes 6 @ 1/5 48.5% 31.1%
17 Coral 6 @ 1/5 48.5% 31.1%
18 Betfair Sportsbook 6 @ 1/5 48.5% 31.1%
19 BoyleSports 8 @ 1/5 75.7% 32%
20 Paddy Power 6 @ 1/5 49.8% 32.3%
21 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 51% 33.3%
22 Spreadex 5 @ 1/4 55.5% 35.6%
23 Sporting Index 5 @ 1/4 55.5% 35.6%