Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 5.1 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: -15.1 %

Total Probability Staked: 25.0 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.0

Total Won: 88.1

Total Profit: -11.9

Hero World Challenge

30/11/2023 - 03/12/2023

Up to date as of: 5 months ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 NOR Viktor Hovland 4 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 1.5/1) 20% 19.01% 6.96% -12.05% 10
2 USA Scottie Scheffler 5.2 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 1.8/1) 16.13% 15.33% 8.67% -6.66% 1
3 USA Collin Morikawa 8 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 2.4/1) 11.11% 10.56% 8.02% -2.54% 7
4 USA Max Homa 8.6 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 2.6/1) 10.42% 9.9% 7.5% -2.4% T13
5 USA Justin Thomas 17.6 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 4.3/1) 5.38% 5.11% 3.67% -1.44% 3
6 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 22 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 5/1) 4.35% 4.13% 4.86% 0.73% T4 (tied w/2) 16.52 +49.5
7 USA Cameron Young 23 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 5.2/1) 4.17% 3.96% 4.5% 0.54% 15 15.83
8 USA Tony Finau 25 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 5.5/1) 3.85% 3.66% 3.13% -0.53% T4
9 USA Wyndham Clark 26 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 5.6/1) 3.7% 3.52% 9.02% 5.5% 14.07
10 USA Rickie Fowler 26 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 5.6/1) 3.7% 3.52% 4.59% 1.07% 17 14.07
11 USA Jordan Spieth 27 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 5.8/1) 3.57% 3.39% 2.51% -0.88% 6
12 USA Sam Burns 29 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 6.1/1) 3.33% 3.17% 3.49% 0.33% 16
13 USA Keegan Bradley 37 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 7.2/1) 2.63% 2.5% 3.91% 1.41% T13 10
14 USA Brian Harman 44 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 8.1/1) 2.22% 2.11% 11.86% 9.75% T8 8.44
15 AUT Sepp Straka 44 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 8.1/1) 2.22% 2.11% 4.35% 2.24% 2 8.44 +38.6
16 ENG Justin Rose 45 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 8.3/1) 2.17% 2.07% 2.2% 0.13% T8
17 AUS Jason Day 46 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 8.4/1) 2.13% 2.02% 4.21% 2.19% 11 8.09
18 USA Will Zalatoris 47 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 8.5/1) 2.08% 1.98% 0.46% -1.52%
19 USA Lucas Glover 82 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 15.1/1) 1.2% 1.15% 5.62% 4.48% 12 4.58
20 USA Tiger Woods 117 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 19.5/1) 0.85% 0.81% 0.46% -0.34% 18

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 5.1 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: -15.1 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 BoyleSports 5 @ 1/5 23.8% 13.7%
2 Skybet 4 @ 1/4 22.1% 14.5%
3 Betfair Sportsbook 5 @ 1/5 28.8% 18.2%
4 Paddy Power 5 @ 1/5 28.8% 18.2%
5 Ladbrokes 4 @ 1/4 27.2% 19.3%
6 Coral 4 @ 1/4 27.2% 19.3%
7 Bet365 4 @ 1/5 20.1% 22.3%
8 Betway 4 @ 1/5 20.2% 22.4%
9 Betfred 4 @ 1/5 20.8% 23%
10 LiveScore Bet 4 @ 1/5 20.9% 23.1%
11 VBet 4 @ 1/5 23.1% 25.4%
12 QuinnBet 4 @ 1/5 23.8% 26.1%
13 BetGoodwin 4 @ 1/5 23.8% 26.1%
14 William Hill 4 @ 1/5 25% 27.3%
15 Bet Victor 4 @ 1/5 25.6% 27.9%
16 Star Sports 4 @ 1/5 25.8% 28.1%
17 888Sport 4 @ 1/5 26.4% 28.7%
18 10Bet 4 @ 1/5 27.7% 30%
19 Spreadex 4 @ 1/5 27.8% 30.2%
20 Sporting Index 4 @ 1/5 27.8% 30.2%
21 Unibet 4 @ 1/5 31.2% 33.6%
22 BetUK 4 @ 1/5 31.2% 33.6%
23 BetMGM UK 4 @ 1/5 31.2% 33.6%