Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 14.8 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 2.5 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.2 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 38.6

Total Profit: -61.6

Fortinet Championship

14/09/2023 - 17/09/2023

Up to date as of: 7 months ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 USA Max Homa 7.5 (Ladbrokes: 8 @ 1/5) 11.76% 9.59% 0.78% -8.81% T7
2 USA Justin Thomas 16.8 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 4.1/1) 5.62% 4.58% 0.25% -4.33% 5
3 USA Sahith Theegala 18 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 5.26% 4.29% 0.61% -3.68% 1
4 AUS Cameron Davis 22 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.54% 0.96% -2.58% 3
5 GER Stephan Jaeger 25 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 3.85% 3.13% 0.69% -2.45% T45
6 USA Beau Hossler 28 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.81% 0.71% -2.1% T30
7 USA Andrew Putnam 33 (Ladbrokes: 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.4% 0.82% -1.57% MC
8 USA J.J Spaun 33 (Ladbrokes: 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.4% 0.76% -1.64% T11
9 USA Brendon Todd 33 (Ladbrokes: 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.4% 0.47% -1.93% 6
10 USA Eric Cole 33 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.94% 2.4% 0.4% -1.99% 4
11 USA Akshay Bhatia 40 (Ladbrokes: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.99% 0.98% -1% MC
12 AUS Lucas Herbert 40 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.99% 0.56% -1.43% T30
13 RSA Garrick Higgo 55 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.45% 0.22% -1.23% MC
14 USA Davis Thompson 60 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.34% 0.5% -0.84% T30
15 USA Mark Hubbard 66 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.22% 0.67% -0.55% T17 5.49
16 USA Austin Eckroat 66 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.22% 0.39% -0.82% MC
17 USA Webb Simpson 66 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.22% 0.27% -0.95% MC
18 USA Sam Ryder 66 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.22% 0.2% -1.02% T14
19 RSA Christiaan Bezuidenhout 66 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.22% 0.12% -1.09%
20 SWE Alexander Noren 67 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 13.1/1) 1.47% 1.2% 0.33% -0.87% MC
21 USA Chesson Hadley 70 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.15% 0.86% -0.29% T62 5.18
22 USA Samuel Stevens 70 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.15% 0.52% -0.63% T45 5.18
23 KOR Kyounghoon Lee 70 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.15% 0.2% -0.95% T14
24 AUS Kevin Yuan 70 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.15% 0.04% -1.11%
25 USA Doug Ghim 72 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 13.8/1) 1.37% 1.12% 0.27% -0.85% T17
26 USA Kevin Streelman 72 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 13.8/1) 1.37% 1.12% 0.24% -0.88% T56
27 USA Chez Reavie 75 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 14.2/1) 1.32% 1.07% 0.55% -0.52% T66 4.84
28 USA Nick Hardy 75 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 14.2/1) 1.32% 1.07% 0.51% -0.56% MC 4.84
29 USA Taylor Montgomery 75 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 14.2/1) 1.32% 1.07% 0.3% -0.77% MC
30 KOR Seonghyeon Kim 80 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.01% 0.76% -0.25% 2 4.54 +38.6
31 USA Mackenzie Hughes 80 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.01% 0.34% -0.66% T52 4.54
32 USA Dylan Wu 80 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.01% 0.25% -0.75% T14
33 USA Luke List 80 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.01% 0.16% -0.84% T25
34 USA Peter Kuest 85 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 15.5/1) 1.16% 0.95% 1.22% 0.27% MC 4.28
35 USA Matt Kuchar 90 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 16.2/1) 1.1% 0.9% 0.55% -0.34% T7 4.05
36 USA Andrew Novak 100 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.81% 0.83% 0.03% MC 3.65
37 RSA MJ Daffue 100 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.81% 0.82% 0.01% MC 3.65
38 RSA Erik van Rooyen 100 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.81% 0.79% -0.02% T30 3.65
39 USA Ryan Palmer 100 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.81% 0.78% -0.02% MC 3.65
40 USA Greyson Sigg 100 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.81% 0.78% -0.03% T25 3.65
41 USA Matthew NeSmith 100 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.81% 0.43% -0.37% MC 3.65
42 USA Nate Lashley 100 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.81% 0.22% -0.59% T30 3.65
43 CAN Taylor Pendrith 105 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 18.1/1) 0.94% 0.77% 0.62% -0.15% MC 3.47
44 USA Charley Hoffman 110 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.73% 1.1% 0.37% MC 3.32
45 USA David Lipsky 110 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.73% 0.79% 0.06% T30 3.32
46 USA Ben Martin 110 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.73% 0.13% -0.61% MC 3.32
47 USA Tyler Duncan 110 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.73% 0.12% -0.61% MC 3.32
48 USA Cameron Champ 115 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 19.3/1) 0.86% 0.7% 0.9% 0.2% MC 3.17
49 ENG Callum Tarren 123 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 20.2/1) 0.81% 0.66% 0.14% -0.51% T7 2.97
50 SCO Martin Laird 125 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.65% 0.92% 0.28% T19 2.92
51 USA Chad Ramey 125 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.65% 0.9% 0.25% T19 2.92
52 USA William Gordon 125 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.65% 0.14% -0.51% MC 2.92
53 ENG Harry Hall 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.54% 0.95% 0.41% T45
54 USA Carson Young 150 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.54% 0.94% 0.4% T19
55 AUS Aaron Baddeley 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.54% 0.93% 0.39% MC
56 USA Ryan Gerard 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.54% 0.77% 0.23% MC
57 USA Scott Stallings 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.54% 0.38% -0.16% T56
58 USA Zac Blair 150 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.54% 0.16% -0.37% T52
59 USA Lanto Griffin 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.54% 0.09% -0.45% MC
60 USA Doc Redman 175 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.46% 1.52% 1.06% MC
61 USA James Hahn 175 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.46% 0.82% 0.35% T45
62 USA Robby Shelton 175 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.46% 0.08% -0.39% T19
63 KOR Seungyul Noh 200 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.41% 1.69% 1.28% MC
64 USA Austin Smotherman 200 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.41% 0.96% 0.56% MC
65 USA Peter Malnati 200 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.41% 0.76% 0.36% T11
66 USA Joel Dahmen 200 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.41% 0.61% 0.21% MC
67 USA Jimmy Walker 200 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.41% 0.21% -0.19% T30
68 USA Vincent Whaley 200 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.41% 0.12% -0.28% T25
69 TPE C.T. Pan 201 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 28.7/1) 0.5% 0.4% 0.14% -0.26% MC
70 USA Stewart Cink 211 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 29.7/1) 0.47% 0.38% 0.12% -0.26% MC
71 USA Justin Lower 229 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 31.5/1) 0.43% 0.35% 0.83% 0.48% T45
72 USA Troy Merritt 229 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 31.5/1) 0.43% 0.35% 0.73% 0.37% T7
73 USA Kevin Tway 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.32% 0.93% 0.6% MC
74 SCO Russell Knox 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.32% 0.64% 0.32% T30
75 USA Patton Kizzire 250 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.32% 0.12% -0.2% T56
76 USA Adam Long 268 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 40.8/1) 0.37% 0.3% 0.81% 0.51% MC
77 USA Scott Piercy 287 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 42.9/1) 0.35% 0.28% 0.84% 0.56% MC
78 USA Zach Johnson 297 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 44/1) 0.34% 0.27% 0.19% -0.09% MC
79 USA Kevin Chappell 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.27% 1.68% 1.41% MC
80 USA Robert Streb 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.27% 1.44% 1.17% MC
81 USA Preston Summerhays 316 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 46/1) 0.32% 0.26% 0.03% -0.22% T56
82 CHN Yuan Carl Yechun 325 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 47/1) 0.31% 0.25% 0.75% 0.5% 68
83 USA Ryan Moore 345 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 49.1/1) 0.29% 0.24% 1.11% 0.88% T45
84 USA Kevin Roy 350 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.23% 1.5% 1.27% MC
85 USA Cody Gribble 350 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.23% 1.45% 1.22% MC
86 USA Brent Grant 350 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.23% 0.93% 0.69% MC
87 ARG Augusto Nunez 350 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.23% 0.79% 0.56% MC
88 USA Harrison Endycott 350 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.23% 0.76% 0.53% MC
89 USA Harry Higgs 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.23% 0.71% 0.48% MC
90 COL Nicolas Echavarria 350 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.23% 0.68% 0.45% MC
91 USA Kevin Kisner 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.23% 0.17% -0.07% T62
92 USA Jonathan Byrd 350 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.23% 0.1% -0.13% MC
93 USA Sean O'Hair 400 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.2% 1.7% 1.5% MC
94 USA Scott Harrington 400 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.2% 1.57% 1.37% T30
95 USA Austin Cook 400 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.2% 1.52% 1.32% T56
96 ENG Benjamin Taylor 400 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.2% 0.13% -0.08% T30
97 USA Jason Dufner 400 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.2% 0.11% -0.1% T19
98 USA Brice Garnett 441 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 58.7/1) 0.23% 0.18% 0.87% 0.68% T52
99 AUS Cameron Percy 479 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 62.3/1) 0.21% 0.17% 0.11% -0.06% MC
100 USA Devon Bling 479 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 62.3/1) 0.21% 0.17% 0.04% -0.13% MC
101 USA Hayden Springer 500 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.16% 0.04% -0.13% MC
102 SWE Henrik Norlander 517 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 65.9/1) 0.19% 0.16% 1.44% 1.28% MC
103 USA Trevor Cone 537 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 67.8/1) 0.19% 0.15% 1% 0.85% MC
104 USA Richy Werenski 565 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 70.3/1) 0.18% 0.14% 1.48% 1.34% T66
105 USA Hank Lebioda 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.14% 0.08% -0.06% T19
106 USA Kramer Hickok 613 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 74.6/1) 0.16% 0.13% 0.93% 0.8% MC
107 JPN Satoshi Kodaira 623 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 75.5/1) 0.16% 0.13% 0.75% 0.62% T30
108 USA Ryan Armour 633 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 76.4/1) 0.16% 0.13% 0.07% -0.06% MC
109 USA Wesley Bryan 719 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 83.8/1) 0.14% 0.11% 1.39% 1.28% MC
110 AUS Geoff Ogilvy 750 (Ladbrokes: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.11% 1.61% 1.51% MC
111 CAN Michael Gligic 750 (Ladbrokes: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.11% 1.6% 1.49% MC
112 USA Brian Stuard 750 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.11% 1.55% 1.44% MC
113 USA Trevor Werbylo 750 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.11% 1.53% 1.42% MC
114 USA Brandon Matthews 750 (Ladbrokes: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.11% 1.53% 1.42% MC
115 USA Max McGreevy 750 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.11% 1.27% 1.17% MC
116 AUT Matthias Schwab 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.11% 0.87% 0.76% T11
117 KOR Sangmoon Bae 750 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.11% 0.08% -0.03% T52
118 USA Scott Brown 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.11% 0.07% -0.04% MC
119 USA Brian Gay 750 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.11% 0.05% -0.06% MC
120 USA D.J. Trahan 750 (Ladbrokes: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.11% 0.04% -0.07% T25
121 USA Kelly Kraft 767 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 87.9/1) 0.13% 0.11% 1.23% 1.13% T25
122 USA Chris Stroud 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.08% 1.69% 1.6% MC
123 KOR Sunghoon Kang 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.08% 1.6% 1.52% 65
124 USA William McGirt 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.08% 1.6% 1.52% 64
125 USA Paul Haley-II 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.08% 0.98% 0.89% MC
126 USA Tyson Alexander 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.08% 0.79% 0.7% T30
127 RSA Dylan Frittelli 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.08% 0.73% 0.64% MC
128 BRA Fred Biondi 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.08% 0.04% -0.05% MC
129 USA Martin Trainer 1000 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 1.68% 1.59% T30
130 USA Kyle Westmoreland 1000 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 1.57% 1.49% MC
131 AUS Greg Chalmers 1000 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 1.48% 1.4% MC
132 USA Jim Herman 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% 0.07% -0.01% MC
133 USA Jacob Bergeron 1000 (Star Sports: 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.04% -0.05% MC
134 USA Ted Potter-jr 1500 (Ladbrokes: 8 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.05% 1.68% 1.63%
135 USA Derek Ernst 2000 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 1.56% 1.52% MC
136 USA Nick Watney 2000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 1.49% 1.45% MC
137 USA Tommy Gainey 2000 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.07% 0.03% MC
138 USA Andrew Landry 2000 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.06% 0.02% T45
139 USA J.B. Holmes 2000 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.04% 0% MC
140 USA Ricky Barnes 2500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% 1.54% 1.51% MC
141 USA Kyle Stanley 2500 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 0.04% 0.03% 0.06% 0.03% MC
142 USA Derek Lamely 2500 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 0.04% 0.03% 0.04% 0.01% MC
143 IND Arjun Atwal 2500 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 0.04% 0.03% 0.04% 0.01% MC
144 USA Ben Crane 2500 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 0.04% 0.03% 0.03% 0% T56
145 USA D.A. Points 5000 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 0.02% 0.02% 0.05% 0.03% MC
146 USA Morgan DeNeen 5000 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 0.02% 0.02% 0.04% 0.02% MC
147 USA Tom Johnson 5000 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 0.02% 0.02% 0.04% 0.02% T30
148 USA Kevin Stadler 5000 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 0.02% 0.02% 0.03% 0.01% MC
149 FRA Cyril Bouniol 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
150 ARG Estanislao Goya 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
151 DEN Oliver Suhr 0% 0% 0% 0% T30
152 CHN Marty Dou Zecheng 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
153 TPE Yu Chun-an(am) 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
154 USA Jinho Chung 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
155 GER Matthias Schmid 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
156 Blake Hathcoat 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
157 Chase Sienkiewicz 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 14.8 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 2.5 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Betfair Sportsbook 8 @ 1/5 53.1% 16.8%
2 Paddy Power 8 @ 1/5 53.1% 16.8%
3 Betfair Exchange 1 @ 1/1 18.5% 19.7%
4 Ladbrokes 8 @ 1/5 59.5% 21.6%
5 Coral 8 @ 1/5 59.5% 21.6%
6 BoyleSports 8 @ 1/5 64.6% 25.6%
7 Star Sports 7 @ 1/5 53.9% 27.1%
8 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 46.1% 28.9%
9 LiveScore Bet 5 @ 1/4 46.1% 28.9%
10 Betway 7 @ 1/5 56.5% 29.2%
11 Bet Victor 5 @ 1/4 46.8% 29.6%
12 Parimatch 5 @ 1/4 46.8% 29.6%
13 Skybet 6 @ 1/5 44.4% 29.9%
14 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 45.3% 30.7%
15 Betfred 5 @ 1/4 48.4% 31%
16 QuinnBet 6 @ 1/5 48.4% 33.5%
17 BetGoodwin 6 @ 1/5 48.4% 33.5%
18 Sporting Index 5 @ 1/4 51.4% 33.7%
19 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 51.5% 36.2%
20 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 52.7% 37.3%
21 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 54.7% 39.1%
22 BetUK 6 @ 1/5 54.7% 39.1%
23 VBet 5 @ 1/4 58.5% 39.9%