Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 7.1 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: -6.0 %

Total Probability Staked: 23.8 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 276.7

Total Profit: +176.7

DP World Tour Championship

16/11/2023 - 19/11/2023

Up to date as of: 5 months ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 NIR Rory McIlroy 4.8 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 1.7/1) 17.24% 15.97% 8.04% -7.93% T22
2 ESP Jon Rahm 5.6 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 1.9/1) 15.15% 14.03% 3.47% -10.56% T5
3 NOR Viktor Hovland 6.8 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 2.2/1) 12.82% 11.87% 6.3% -5.58% T2
4 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 14.8 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 3.8/1) 6.33% 5.86% 3.4% -2.47% T11
5 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 15.4 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 3.9/1) 6.1% 5.65% 3.52% -2.13% T27
6 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 18.2 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 4.4/1) 5.21% 4.82% 3.38% -1.44% T2
7 AUS Minwoo Lee 20 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 4.7/1) 4.76% 4.41% 2.79% -1.62% T15
8 KOR Woohyun Kim 25 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 5.5/1) 3.85% 3.56% 0.23% -3.33%
9 DEN Nicolai Hojgaard 31 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 6.4/1) 3.13% 2.89% 3.34% 0.44% 1 12.19 +239.9
10 POL Adrian Meronk 34 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 6.8/1) 2.86% 2.65% 2.53% -0.12% T32 11.14
11 IRL Shane Lowry 38 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 7.3/1) 2.56% 2.37% 1.84% -0.54% T18 10
12 NZL Ryan Fox 43 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 8/1) 2.27% 2.11% 3.07% 0.96% T34 8.86
13 DEN Rasmus Hojgaard 43 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 8/1) 2.27% 2.11% 1.72% -0.38% T11 8.86
14 SWE Vincent Norrman 50 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.82% 1.72% -0.09% T27 7.65
15 DEN Thorbjorn Olesen 52 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 10.9/1) 1.89% 1.75% 2.2% 0.45% 26 7.36
16 AUT Sepp Straka 68 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 13.2/1) 1.45% 1.34% 3.6% 2.26% T22 5.65
17 ENG Jordan L Smith 77 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 14.5/1) 1.28% 1.19% 2.48% 1.29% 47 5
18 SCO Robert MacIntyre 87 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 15.8/1) 1.14% 1.05% 2.75% 1.7% T18 4.43
19 ENG Matt Wallace 90 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 16.2/1) 1.1% 1.02% 1.45% 0.43% T2 (tied w/3) 4.29 +36.8
20 AUS Lucas Herbert 92 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 16.4/1) 1.08% 1% 0.91% -0.08% T38 4.2
21 SWE Alexander Bjork 97 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 17.1/1) 1.02% 0.95% 2.03% 1.08% T36 3.98
22 JPN Ryo Hisatsune 117 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 19.5/1) 0.85% 0.78% 2% 1.21% T18 3.31
23 GER Yannik Paul 123 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 20.2/1) 0.81% 0.75% 1.52% 0.78% T27 3.15
24 FRA Matthieu Pavon 146 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 22.9/1) 0.68% 0.63% 1.59% 0.96% T5
25 FIN Sami Valimaki 146 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 22.9/1) 0.68% 0.63% 0.89% 0.26% T38
26 ESP Jorge Campillo 156 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 24/1) 0.64% 0.59% 1.76% 1.17% T43
27 NZL Daniel Hillier 160 (888sport: 6 @ 1/5) 0.62% 0.58% 1.33% 0.75% T38
28 NIR Tom McKibbin 160 (888sport: 6 @ 1/5) 0.62% 0.58% 1.23% 0.66% T32
29 FRA Victor Perez 166 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 25.1/1) 0.6% 0.55% 1.16% 0.6% 8
30 NED Joost Luiten 185 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 27.1/1) 0.54% 0.5% 1.43% 0.94% 48
31 SCO Ewen Ferguson 191 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 27.7/1) 0.52% 0.48% 1.2% 0.72% T9
32 ESP Adrian Otaegui 195 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 28.1/1) 0.51% 0.47% 3.04% 2.57% T18
33 SCO Connor Syme 200 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.46% 1.14% 0.67% T41
34 ENG Dan Bradbury 205 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 29.1/1) 0.49% 0.45% 1.22% 0.77% 17
35 ENG Nathan Kimsey 229 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 31.5/1) 0.43% 0.4% 1.8% 1.4% T36
36 GER Marcel Siem 234 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 32/1) 0.43% 0.39% 1.4% 1.01% T45
37 FRA Antoine Rozner 244 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 33/1) 0.41% 0.38% 0.95% 0.57% T11
38 FRA Romain Langasque 264 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 40.3/1) 0.38% 0.35% 2.31% 1.96% T11
39 SWE Sebastian Soderberg 264 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 40.3/1) 0.38% 0.35% 1.36% 1.01% T41
40 RSA Thriston Lawrence 273 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 41.3/1) 0.36% 0.34% 1.18% 0.84% T5
41 ENG Matthew Southgate 287 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 42.9/1) 0.35% 0.32% 0.77% 0.45%
42 FRA Julien Guerrier 381 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 52.7/1) 0.26% 0.24% 0.8% 0.56% T22
43 FRA Julien Brun 430 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 57.6/1) 0.23% 0.21% 1.92% 1.7% T43
44 SCO Grant Forrest 499 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 64.2/1) 0.2% 0.19% 1.08% 0.89% T27
45 ESP Nacho Elvira 500 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.18% 1.3% 1.11%
46 ENG Daniel A Brown 500 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.18% 0.93% 0.75% T45
47 RSA Zander Lombard 528 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 66.9/1) 0.19% 0.18% 1.09% 0.92% T22
48 DEN Jeff Winther 538 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 67.8/1) 0.19% 0.17% 1.26% 1.09% T9
49 SWE Jens Dantorp 750 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.12% 0.71% 0.59% T27
50 ESP Pablo Larrazabal 793 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 90.1/1) 0.13% 0.12% 0.87% 0.75% T34
51 KOR Tom Kim 0% 0% 0% 0% T15

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 7.1 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: -6.0 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 38.2% 20.3%
2 Spreadex 5 @ 1/4 39.7% 21.7%
3 Sporting Index 5 @ 1/4 39.7% 21.7%
4 10Bet 6 @ 1/5 40.6% 23.8%
5 Betfair Sportsbook 6 @ 1/5 42% 25%
6 Paddy Power 6 @ 1/5 42% 25%
7 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 43.5% 26.4%
8 LiveScore Bet 5 @ 1/5 32.4% 27.7%
9 Skybet 5 @ 1/5 32.6% 27.9%
10 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 45.3% 28.1%
11 Betfred 5 @ 1/5 33.4% 28.7%
12 Betway 6 @ 1/5 48.3% 30.7%
13 BoyleSports 8 @ 1/5 74% 30.9%
14 Bet Victor 5 @ 1/5 36.2% 31.4%
15 Ladbrokes 8 @ 1/5 77.1% 33.5%
16 Coral 8 @ 1/5 77.1% 33.5%
17 Star Sports 6 @ 1/5 52.5% 34.3%
18 Unibet 5 @ 1/5 45% 39.8%
19 BetUK 5 @ 1/5 45% 39.8%
20 BetMGM UK 5 @ 1/5 45% 39.8%
21 QuinnBet 5 @ 1/5 48.6% 43.3%
22 BetGoodwin 5 @ 1/5 48.6% 43.3%