Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 31.5 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 13.0 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.2 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.2

Total Won: 292.6

Total Profit: +192.4

Spanish Open

12/10/2023 - 15/10/2023

Up to date as of: 6 months ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 ESP Jon Rahm 2.1 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 32.26% 24.14% 1.09% -23.05% T9
2 ENG Justin Rose 14 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 6.67% 4.99% 0.98% -4.01% T57
3 GER Yannik Paul 25 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.88% 0.69% -2.18% MC
4 NED Joost Luiten 28 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.58% 0.51% -2.07% T20
5 ESP Adrian Otaegui 35 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 2.78% 2.08% 0.58% -1.5% T28
6 DEN Thorbjorn Olesen 35 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.78% 2.08% 0.46% -1.62% T17
7 FRA Romain Langasque 40 (VBet: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.83% 0.55% -1.28% T9
8 ESP Jorge Campillo 50 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.47% 0.45% -1.02% T62
9 SCO Connor Syme 50 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.47% 0.45% -1.02% MC
10 FRA Antoine Rozner 50 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.47% 0.38% -1.09% T35
11 ESP Adria Arnaus 50 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.47% 0.09% -1.38% T64
12 ENG Alex Fitzpatrick 55 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.34% 0.47% -0.87% T20
13 ITA Guido Migliozzi 55 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.34% 0.34% -0.99% T47
14 DEN Niklas Norgaard Moller 60 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.23% 1.48% 0.25% MC 5.54
15 SCO Calum Hill 60 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.23% 0.46% -0.77% T47
16 RSA Hennie Du Plessis 60 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.23% 0.21% -1.02% MC
17 DEN Marcus Helligkilde 66 (VBet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.12% 1.6% 0.48% T9 5.05
18 ENG Nathan Kimsey 66 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.12% 1.33% 0.22% 3 5.05 +44.2
19 SCO Ewen Ferguson 66 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.12% 0.36% -0.76% T9
20 SCO Grant Forrest 66 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.12% 0.35% -0.77% T41
21 FRA Victor Perez 66 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.12% 0.34% -0.78% T28
22 SCO David Law 66 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.12% 0.33% -0.79% MC
23 NIR Tom McKibbin 66 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.12% 0.32% -0.8% MC
24 FRA Julien Brun 70 (VBet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.41% 1.05% 0.48% -0.57% T28 4.76
25 GER Marcel Siem 70 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.05% 0.3% -0.75% T4
26 ESP Pablo Larrazabal 70 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.05% 0.23% -0.83% T20
27 FIN Sami Valimaki 75 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.32% 0.98% 0.25% -0.73% T41 4.45
28 RSA Zander Lombard 75 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 1.32% 0.98% 0.16% -0.83% 2
29 SWE Sebastian Soderberg 80 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.92% 0.94% 0.01% T41 4.18
30 FRA Matthieu Pavon 80 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.92% 0.9% -0.02% 1 4.18 +204.8
31 RSA Thriston Lawrence 80 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.92% 0.42% -0.5% T41 4.18
32 ENG Daniel A Brown 80 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.92% 0.39% -0.53% T57 4.18
33 MAS Gavin Green 80 (VBet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.92% 0.29% -0.64% T28 4.18
34 SCO Richie Ramsay 80 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.92% 0.28% -0.64% T57 4.18
35 FRA Julien Guerrier 95 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 1.04% 0.78% 1.12% 0.34% T6 3.52
36 GER Nick Bachem 95 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 1.04% 0.78% 0.19% -0.59% MC 3.52
37 PAR Fabrizio Zanotti 100 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.74% 1.85% 1.11% T4 (tied w/2) 3.35 +43.6
38 IND Shubhankar Sharma 100 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.74% 0.32% -0.42% T35 3.35
39 ENG Eddie Pepperell 100 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.74% 0.25% -0.49% T20 3.35
40 ENG Richard Mansell 100 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.74% 0.19% -0.55% T6 3.35
41 ESP Alejandro Del Rey 100 (10bet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.74% 0.16% -0.58% T17 3.35
42 ESP Rafael Cabrera Bello 100 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.74% 0.15% -0.59% T64 3.35
43 ENG Dan Bradbury 100 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.74% 0.15% -0.59% T6 3.35
44 GER Marcel Schneider 110 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.67% 0.96% 0.29% WD 3.05
45 NZL Daniel Hillier 110 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.67% 0.4% -0.28% T9 3.05
46 ENG Paul Waring 120 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.83% 0.62% 0.2% -0.42% T20 2.8
47 DEN Jeff Winther 120 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.83% 0.62% 0.2% -0.42% MC 2.8
48 ENG Marcus Armitage 125 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.59% 1.61% 1.01% MC 2.69
49 SWE Marcus Kinhult 125 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.59% 1.37% 0.78% MC 2.69
50 GER Maximilian Kieffer 125 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.59% 1.21% 0.62% MC 2.69
51 JPN Masahiro Kawamura 140 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.71% 0.53% 1.99% 1.46% MC
52 AUS Jason Scrivener 140 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.71% 0.53% 1.66% 1.13% T20
53 SCO Scott Jamieson 140 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.71% 0.53% 1.38% 0.85% MC
54 FIN Kalle Samooja 140 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.71% 0.53% 0.25% -0.28% T9
55 ENG Matthew Jordan 140 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.71% 0.53% 0.24% -0.29% T47
56 USA Johannes Veerman 150 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.5% 1.52% 1.03% MC
57 RSA Louis de Jager 150 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% 1.19% 0.69% T41
58 ENG Matthew Baldwin 150 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.5% 0.2% -0.29% 71
59 SCO Marc Warren 150 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% 0.15% -0.34% MC
60 RSA Oliver Bekker 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.43% 0.15% -0.28% MC
61 NED Daan Huizing 200 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.37% 2.99% 2.62% T64
62 FRA Alexander Levy 200 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.37% 2.79% 2.41% T28
63 ENG Andy Sullivan 200 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.37% 1.71% 1.34% MC
64 ITA Edoardo Molinari 200 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.37% 1.54% 1.17% T28
65 CAN Aaron Cockerill 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.37% 1.34% 0.97% T41
66 SWE Simon Forsstrom 200 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.37% 1.32% 0.95% MC
67 USA Sean Crocker 200 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.37% 0.97% 0.6% T20
68 GER Hurly Long 200 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.37% 0.39% 0.02%
69 ESP Nacho Elvira 200 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.37% 0.21% -0.17% MC
70 ENG Ross Fisher 200 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.37% 0.18% -0.19% T53
71 JPN Kazuki Higa 200 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.37% 0.17% -0.2% MC
72 ENG James Morrison 225 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.44% 0.33% 2.86% 2.53% T47
73 AUT Lukas Nemecz 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.3% 2.43% 2.13% T53
74 WAL Jamie Donaldson 250 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.3% 0.15% -0.15% T53
75 NED Wil Besseling 275 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.36% 0.27% 2.59% 2.32% T35
76 CHN Wu Ashun 275 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.36% 0.27% 1.04% 0.77%
77 ESP Alfredo Garcia-Heredia 275 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.36% 0.27% 0.15% -0.12% T9
78 SWE Mikael Lindberg 300 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.25% 2.94% 2.69% 73
79 ESP Angel Hidalgo Portillo 300 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 1.43% 1.18% MC
80 FIN Tapio Pulkkanen 300 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.25% 1.43% 1.18% T64
81 ENG Dale Whitnell 300 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.25% 1.01% 0.76% MC
82 ENG Todd Clements 300 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.25% 0.2% -0.05% T35
83 RSA Bryce Easton 300 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.25% 0.18% -0.07% MC
84 RSA Justin Walters 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.25% 0.17% -0.08% MC
85 NOR Kristian Krogh Johannessen 300 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.25% 0.17% -0.08% MC
86 NED Darius Van Driel 350 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.21% 2.61% 2.4% MC
87 GER Nicolai Von Dellingshausen 400 (VBet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.19% 2.62% 2.43% MC
88 USA John Catlin 400 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.19% 2.39% 2.2% MC
89 RSA JC Ritchie 400 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.19% 1.39% 1.2% MC
90 ESP Borja Virto Astudillo 400 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.28% 0.1% MC
91 ENG Oliver Wilson 400 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.19% 0.18% -0.01% MC
92 FRA Victor Dubuisson 400 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.18% -0.01%
93 ENG John Parry 400 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.18% -0.01% T47
94 ARG Daniel Vancsik 400 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.19% 0.07% -0.12%
95 ESP Pep Angles Ros 400 (VBet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.19% 0.07% -0.12% MC
96 ESP Santiago Tarrio 400 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.19% 0.07% -0.12%
97 DEN Martin Leth Simonsen 500 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 2.82% 2.67% T35
98 ESP Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez 500 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.15% 2.82% 2.67% MC
99 FRA Jeong Weon Ko 500 (QuinnBet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 2.78% 2.64% T64
100 FRA Robin Sciot-Siegrist 500 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 2.72% 2.57% MC
101 FRA Clement Sordet 500 (QuinnBet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 1.52% 1.37%
102 DEN Soren Kjeldsen 500 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.3% 0.15% MC
103 KOR Jeunghun Wang 500 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.15% 0.15% 0% T74
104 NOR Espen Kofstad 500 (QuinnBet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.07% -0.08% MC
105 Luis MASAVEU 500 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.07% -0.08% MC
106 ESP Alejandro Canizares 500 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.07% -0.08% MC
107 USA Chase Hanna 600 (VBet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.12% 2.86% 2.73% T64
108 ESP Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.12% 0.07% -0.05% T20
109 RSA Deon Germishuys 750 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.1% 0.23% 0.13% T74
110 RSA Thomas Aiken 750 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.16% 0.06% T62
111 THA Jazz Janewattananond 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.1% 0.15% 0.05% MC
112 ENG Daniel Gavins 750 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.1% 0.09% -0.01% MC
113 ESP Alvaro Quiros 750 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.1% 0.07% -0.03% MC
114 Angel Ayora 750 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.1% 0.07% -0.03% MC
115 SUI Jeremy Freiburghaus 1000 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 2.72% 2.65% MC
116 DEN Oliver Hundeboll Jorgensen 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.07% 1.96% 1.88% MC
117 SCO Stephen Gallacher 2000 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.09% 0.06% 72
118 DEN Thomas Bjorn 2000 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 0.05% 0.04% 0.06% 0.02% MC
119 IND Manu Gandas 2500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% 0.22% 0.19% MC
120 ESP Juan Salama 2500 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 0.04% 0.03% 0.07% 0.04% MC
121 THA Kiradech Aphibarnrat 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
122 RSA Danie van Tonder 0% 0% 0% 0% T57
123 FRA Michael Lorenzo-Vera 0% 0% 0% 0% T9
124 ESP Pablo Martin Benavides 0% 0% 0% 0% T28
125 POR Pedro Figueiredo 0% 0% 0% 0% T53
126 JPN Rikuya Hoshino 0% 0% 0% 0% WD
127 GER Alexander Knappe 0% 0% 0% 0% T35
128 ENG Andrew Wilson 0% 0% 0% 0% T47
129 RSA Wilco Nienaber 0% 0% 0% 0% T17
130 DEN John Axelsen 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
131 FRA David Ravetto 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
132 USA Joshua Lee 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
133 GER Frederik Schott 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
134 ESP Victor Garcia Broto 0% 0% 0% 0% 70
135 DEN Christoffer Bring 0% 0% 0% 0% T57
136 Ignacio Gomez Osuna 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 31.5 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 13.0 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 LiveScore Bet 5 @ 1/4 39.6% 23.8%
2 Bet Victor 5 @ 1/4 41.8% 25.8%
3 Parimatch 5 @ 1/4 41.8% 25.8%
4 Betfred 5 @ 1/4 42% 26%
5 Betway 7 @ 1/5 52.5% 26.7%
6 BoyleSports 8 @ 1/5 65.5% 27.4%
7 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 48.1% 31.3%
8 10Bet 6 @ 1/5 47.5% 33%
9 Betfair Sportsbook 7 @ 1/5 60.4% 33.3%
10 Paddy Power 7 @ 1/5 60.4% 33.3%
11 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 48.3% 33.7%
12 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 49.1% 34.4%
13 Sporting Index 5 @ 1/4 51.7% 34.6%
14 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 49.3% 34.7%
15 VBet 5 @ 1/4 52.2% 34.9%
16 QuinnBet 6 @ 1/5 50.4% 35.7%
17 BetGoodwin 6 @ 1/5 50.4% 35.7%
18 Skybet 6 @ 1/5 52.9% 38%
19 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 58.6% 43.1%
20 BetUK 6 @ 1/5 58.6% 43.1%
21 BetMGM UK 6 @ 1/5 58.6% 43.1%