Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 10.4 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 0.9 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.1 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 271.3

Total Profit: +171.2

BMW PGA Championship

14/09/2023 - 17/09/2023

Up to date as of: 7 months ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 NOR Viktor Hovland 7.2 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 2.3/1) 12.2% 10.3% 2.25% -8.05% 5
2 NIR Rory McIlroy 8.6 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 2.6/1) 10.42% 8.8% 2.3% -6.5% T7
3 ESP Jon Rahm 8.8 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 2.6/1) 10.2% 8.62% 1.54% -7.09% 4
4 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 14 (Coral: 12 @ 1/6) 6.67% 5.63% 1.4% -4.23% T18
5 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 16 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 5.88% 4.97% 1.43% -3.54% 6
6 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 20 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 4.76% 4.02% 1.23% -2.8% T2
7 SWE Ludvig Aberg 20 (Coral: 12 @ 1/6) 4.76% 4.02% 0.96% -3.06% T10
8 KOR Woohyun Kim 22 (Coral: 12 @ 1/6) 4.35% 3.67% 0.05% -3.62%
9 IRL Shane Lowry 23 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 5.2/1) 4.17% 3.52% 0.74% -2.78% T18
10 ENG Justin Rose 33 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.48% 0.83% -1.66% T36
11 USA Billy Horschel 33 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.48% 0.48% -2.01% T18
12 AUS Minwoo Lee 38 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 7.3/1) 2.56% 2.17% 0.92% -1.25% T14 9.81
13 ENG Jordan L Smith 50 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.66% 0.53% -1.13% T72 7.5
14 ENG Aaron Rai 50 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.66% 0.31% -1.34% T2 (tied w/2) 7.5 +41.3
15 DEN Nicolai Hojgaard 52 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 10.9/1) 1.89% 1.59% 0.96% -0.63% T64 7.22
16 SWE Alexander Bjork 55 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.51% 0.78% -0.73% T18 6.84
17 AUS Adam Scott 62 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 12.4/1) 1.59% 1.34% 1.12% -0.22% T7 6.08
18 AUT Sepp Straka 63 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 12.5/1) 1.56% 1.32% 1.07% -0.25% T10 5.98
19 POL Adrian Meronk 63 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 12.5/1) 1.56% 1.32% 1.04% -0.28% T28 5.98
20 SWE Vincent Norrman 68 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 13.2/1) 1.45% 1.22% 1.93% 0.71% T18 5.55
21 NZL Ryan Fox 72 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 13.8/1) 1.37% 1.16% 0.81% -0.35% 1 5.24 +230
22 BEL Thomas Detry 75 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 14.2/1) 1.32% 1.11% 0.46% -0.65% T33 5.04
23 NED Joost Luiten 90 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.93% 0.64% -0.29% T14 4.21
24 ITA Guido Migliozzi 100 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.84% 0.37% -0.46% MC 3.79
25 SCO Robert MacIntyre 105 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 18.1/1) 0.94% 0.8% 0.44% -0.35% T45 3.61
26 FRA Victor Perez 107 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 18.3/1) 0.93% 0.78% 0.81% 0.02% MC 3.55
27 GER Yannik Paul 123 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 20.2/1) 0.81% 0.68% 0.32% -0.36% T45 3.09
28 DEN Thorbjorn Olesen 125 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.67% 0.22% -0.45% T33 3.04
29 ITA Francesco Molinari 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.67% 0.15% -0.52% MC 3.04
30 ENG Matt Wallace 126 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 20.6/1) 0.79% 0.67% 0.34% -0.33% T57 3.02
31 SCO Connor Syme 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.56% 0.32% -0.24% T10
32 ESP Adrian Otaegui 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.56% 0.22% -0.34% T36
33 RSA Thriston Lawrence 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.56% 0.22% -0.34% MC
34 ENG Eddie Pepperell 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.56% 0.21% -0.35% MC
35 USA Tom Hoge 172 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 25.7/1) 0.58% 0.49% 0.32% -0.17% T14
36 IND Shubhankar Sharma 175 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.48% 0.24% -0.24% T36
37 FRA Romain Langasque 181 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 26.7/1) 0.55% 0.46% 0.61% 0.15% T14
38 ENG Nathan Kimsey 200 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.42% 1.27% 0.85% T28
39 SCO Calum Hill 200 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.42% 0.28% -0.14% T51
40 FRA Antoine Rozner 205 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 29.1/1) 0.49% 0.41% 0.26% -0.15% MC
41 ENG Alex Fitzpatrick 215 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 30.1/1) 0.46% 0.39% 0.57% 0.18% T69
42 DEN Rasmus Hojgaard 224 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 31/1) 0.44% 0.38% 0.28% -0.09% T45
43 GER Marcel Siem 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.34% 0.24% -0.1% MC
44 ENG Daniel A Brown 250 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.34% 0.23% -0.11% T51
45 SCO Grant Forrest 254 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 39.2/1) 0.39% 0.33% 0.37% 0.03% MC
46 SCO Ewen Ferguson 264 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 40.3/1) 0.38% 0.32% 0.31% -0.01% MC
47 FIN Sami Valimaki 268 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 40.8/1) 0.37% 0.31% 0.24% -0.07% T74
48 NIR Tom McKibbin 268 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 40.8/1) 0.37% 0.31% 0.23% -0.09% T51
49 ENG Matthew Southgate 268 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 40.8/1) 0.37% 0.31% 0.16% -0.15% WD
50 ENG Richard Mansell 275 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.36% 0.31% 0.18% -0.13% MC
51 NZL Daniel Hillier 277 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 41.8/1) 0.36% 0.3% 0.32% 0.02% WD
52 IRL Padraig Harrington 287 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 42.9/1) 0.35% 0.29% 0.34% 0.05% MC
53 SWE Marcus Kinhult 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.28% 1.05% 0.77% MC
54 ENG Paul Waring 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.28% 0.2% -0.08% MC
55 JPN Ryo Hisatsune 303 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 44.6/1) 0.33% 0.28% 1.32% 1.05% MC
56 PAR Fabrizio Zanotti 303 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 44.6/1) 0.33% 0.28% 1.1% 0.82% MC
57 DEN Niklas Norgaard Moller 342 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 48.7/1) 0.29% 0.25% 1.07% 0.83% MC
58 ESP Pablo Larrazabal 342 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 48.7/1) 0.29% 0.25% 0.21% -0.04% T76
59 SWE Sebastian Soderberg 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.24% 1.13% 0.89% T64
60 SCO David Law 350 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.24% 0.2% -0.04% T51
61 MAS Gavin Green 352 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 49.8/1) 0.28% 0.24% 0.26% 0.02% MC
62 GER Marcel Schneider 381 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 52.7/1) 0.26% 0.22% 1.06% 0.84% T67
63 USA Sean Crocker 400 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.21% 1.08% 0.87% MC
64 FRA Julien Brun 403 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 54.9/1) 0.25% 0.21% 0.25% 0.04% 35
65 SCO Richie Ramsay 411 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 55.7/1) 0.24% 0.21% 0.22% 0.02% T28
66 DEN Marcus Helligkilde 421 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 56.7/1) 0.24% 0.2% 1.29% 1.09% T25
67 FRA Julien Guerrier 460 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 60.5/1) 0.22% 0.18% 1.24% 1.06%
68 GER Maximilian Kieffer 460 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 60.5/1) 0.22% 0.18% 1.19% 1.01% MC
69 ENG Matthew Jordan 460 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 60.5/1) 0.22% 0.18% 0.19% 0% T51
70 JPN Masahiro Kawamura 479 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 62.3/1) 0.21% 0.18% 1.18% 1% T45
71 ENG Ross Fisher 489 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 63.3/1) 0.2% 0.17% 0.08% -0.09% MC
72 GER Nick Bachem 509 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 65.2/1) 0.2% 0.17% 0.33% 0.16% MC
73 GER Hurly Long 528 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 66.9/1) 0.19% 0.16% 0.25% 0.09% T69
74 ENG Danny Willett 538 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 67.8/1) 0.19% 0.16% 0.13% -0.03% T64
75 FRA Matthieu Pavon 558 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 69.7/1) 0.18% 0.15% 1.33% 1.18% MC
76 JPN Rikuya Hoshino 558 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 69.7/1) 0.18% 0.15% 0.26% 0.11% T25
77 ENG Luke Donald 558 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 69.7/1) 0.18% 0.15% 0.22% 0.07% T36
78 ESP Jorge Campillo 567 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 70.5/1) 0.18% 0.15% 0.36% 0.21% T28
79 SCO Scott Jamieson 575 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 71.2/1) 0.17% 0.15% 1.16% 1.01% 79
80 RSA Hennie Du Plessis 577 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 71.4/1) 0.17% 0.15% 0.21% 0.07% T10
81 FIN Kalle Samooja 587 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 72.3/1) 0.17% 0.14% 0.17% 0.03% T74
82 NED Wil Besseling 600 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.14% 1.61% 1.47% MC
83 ENG Andy Sullivan 695 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 81.8/1) 0.14% 0.12% 1.08% 0.96% T36
84 ITA Edoardo Molinari 695 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 81.8/1) 0.14% 0.12% 0.97% 0.85% MC
85 ENG Dan Bradbury 710 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 83.1/1) 0.14% 0.12% 0.11% -0.01% T51
86 USA Johannes Veerman 744 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 86/1) 0.13% 0.11% 1.02% 0.91% T45
87 FRA Robin Sciot-Siegrist 750 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.11% 2.15% 2.04% T45
88 SWE Mikael Lindberg 750 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.11% 2.12% 2% T36
89 NED Darius Van Driel 750 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.11% 2.09% 1.98% T36
90 NED Daan Huizing 750 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.11% 2.05% 1.94% T36
91 AUT Lukas Nemecz 750 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.11% 1.49% 1.38% T61
92 SWE Jens Dantorp 750 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.11% 1.14% 1.03% MC
93 ENG Oliver Wilson 750 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.11% 0.25% 0.13% T76
94 DEN Soren Kjeldsen 750 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.11% 0.16% 0.04% MC
95 ENG Todd Clements 773 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 88.4/1) 0.13% 0.11% 0.19% 0.08% MC
96 USA John Catlin 815 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 91.9/1) 0.12% 0.1% 1.6% 1.5% MC
97 FRA Alexander Levy 930 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 101.2/1) 0.11% 0.09% 2.17% 2.08% MC
98 ENG James Morrison 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 2.44% 2.35% T18
99 SWE Simon Forsstrom 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 1.52% 1.43% MC
100 CAN Aaron Cockerill 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 1.33% 1.24% T61
101 CHN Wu Ashun 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 1.2% 1.11% T67
102 FIN Tapio Pulkkanen 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 1.17% 1.08% MC
103 ENG Marcus Armitage 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 1.15% 1.06% MC
104 ENG Dale Whitnell 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 1.04% 0.95%
105 ESP Angel Hidalgo Portillo 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 1.03% 0.94% MC
106 RSA JC Ritchie 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 1.02% 0.94% MC
107 RSA Louis de Jager 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 1.01% 0.92% T36
108 RSA Justin Walters 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.2% 0.12% MC
109 ESP Nacho Elvira 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.18% 0.09% MC
110 WAL Jamie Donaldson 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.15% 0.06% MC
111 ESP Adria Arnaus 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.14% 0.06% T61
112 RSA Oliver Bekker 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.14% 0.05% T57
113 ENG Matthew Baldwin 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.14% 0.05% T28
114 ESP Rafael Cabrera Bello 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.11% 0.02% T57
115 DEN Jeff Winther 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.11% 0.02% MC
116 ENG Callum Shinkwin 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.06% -0.03% T7
117 AUS Jason Scrivener 979 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 105/1) 0.1% 0.09% 1.02% 0.93% T25
118 RSA Zander Lombard 979 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 105/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.12% 0.04% T69
119 GER Nicolai Von Dellingshausen 1000 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 2.33% 2.24% MC
120 USA Chase Hanna 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 2.03% 1.95% MC
121 SWE Joakim Lagergren 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 1.15% 1.06% MC
122 THA Jazz Janewattananond 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.16% 0.08% MC
123 SCO Marc Warren 1000 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.16% 0.07% WD
124 KOR Jeunghun Wang 1000 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.13% 0.05% MC
125 FRA Victor Dubuisson 1000 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.09% 0% WD
126 ESP Santiago Tarrio 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.05% -0.03%
127 ENG Daniel Gavins 1500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.06% 0.12% 0.06% WD
128 ESP Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez 2000 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 2.11% 2.06% MC
129 RSA Ockie Strydom 2000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.11% 0.07% MC
130 CHN Shao Yong-liang 2000 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.05% 0.01%
131 SUI Jeremy Freiburghaus 2500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% 2.06% 2.03% T76
132 DEN Oliver Hundeboll Jorgensen 2500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% 1.17% 1.14% MC
133 DEN Thomas Bjorn 2500 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 0.04% 0.03% 0.08% 0.04% MC
134 BEL Nicolas Colsaerts 2500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% 0.07% 0.03% T72
135 SCO Stephen Gallacher 2500 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 0.04% 0.03% 0.06% 0.02% MC
136 SCO Craig Lee 2500 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 0.04% 0.03% 0.05% 0.02% MC
137 CHN Hao Tong Li 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
138 ESP Pablo Martin Benavides 0% 0% 0% 0% T57
139 KOR Tom Kim 0% 0% 0% 0% T18
140 GER Alexander Knappe 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
141 GER Frederik Schott 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 10.4 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 0.9 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Betfair Exchange 1 @ 1/1 11.2% 6.9%
2 Betfair Sportsbook 8 @ 1/5 49.7% 14.5%
3 Skybet 8 @ 1/5 50.3% 15%
4 BoyleSports 8 @ 1/5 53.3% 17.3%
5 William Hill 8 @ 1/5 53.7% 17.6%
6 888Sport 8 @ 1/5 53.8% 17.7%
7 Paddy Power 8 @ 1/5 59.1% 21.7%
8 Coral 12 @ 1/6 84.6% 22.5%
9 Ladbrokes 10 @ 1/5 84.6% 23.1%
10 Star Sports 7 @ 1/5 56.8% 29.7%
11 LiveScore Bet 5 @ 1/4 46.9% 29.9%
12 Bet Victor 5 @ 1/4 49.1% 31.7%
13 Parimatch 5 @ 1/4 49.1% 31.7%
14 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 49.4% 32.1%
15 Betfred 5 @ 1/4 50% 32.6%
16 Betway 7 @ 1/5 60.9% 33.1%
17 VBet 7 @ 1/5 62.4% 34.3%
18 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 50.9% 35.8%
19 BetUK 6 @ 1/5 50.9% 35.8%
20 Sporting Index 5 @ 1/4 56.7% 38.6%
21 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 58.5% 42.7%
22 QuinnBet 6 @ 1/5 61.5% 45.3%
23 BetGoodwin 6 @ 1/5 61.5% 45.3%