Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 7.3 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 2.6 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.9 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 20.8

Total Profit: -79.3

Omega European Masters

31/08/2023 - 03/09/2023

Up to date as of: 8 months ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 8.4 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 2.5/1) 10.64% 9.15% 1.78% -7.36% T3
2 POL Adrian Meronk 20 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 4.76% 4.09% 1.36% -2.74% T13
3 SWE Ludvig Aberg 20 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 4.7/1) 4.76% 4.09% 0.69% -3.4% 1
4 DEN Nicolai Hojgaard 21 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 4.8/1) 4.55% 3.91% 0.87% -3.04% T5
5 ENG Matt Wallace 22 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.74% 0.48% -3.25% T24
6 SWE Alexander Bjork 25 (Ladbrokes: 7 @ 1/5) 3.85% 3.31% 0.87% -2.43% 2
7 FRA Antoine Rozner 33 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.53% 0.49% -2.04% T24
8 ENG Jordan L Smith 33 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.53% 0.49% -2.04% T20
9 BEL Adrien Dumont de Chassart 33 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.53% 0.08% -2.45% T52
10 SCO Robert MacIntyre 35 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 6.9/1) 2.78% 2.39% 1.21% -1.18% T55
11 DEN Rasmus Hojgaard 37 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 7.2/1) 2.63% 2.26% 0.33% -1.93% MC
12 FRA Victor Perez 40 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 2.44% 2.1% 1.24% -0.86% MC
13 GER Yannik Paul 40 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 2.44% 2.1% 0.38% -1.72% T20
14 FRA Romain Langasque 50 (Ladbrokes: 7 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.69% 0.98% -0.7% T32 7.37
15 ENG Alex Fitzpatrick 50 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.69% 0.57% -1.11% T5
16 ESP Adrian Otaegui 60 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.41% 0.25% -1.16% T55
17 DEN Thorbjorn Olesen 62 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 12.4/1) 1.59% 1.36% 0.37% -1% T40
18 SWE Marcus Kinhult 66 (Ladbrokes: 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.28% 1.28% -0.01% T47 5.61
19 GER Marcel Siem 66 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.28% 0.4% -0.88% T71
20 NED Joost Luiten 68 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 13.2/1) 1.45% 1.25% 0.56% -0.69% T5 (tied w/3) 5.45 +12.9
21 ENG Nathan Kimsey 75 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 1.32% 1.13% 1.19% 0.06% T57 4.95
22 RSA Thriston Lawrence 75 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 1.32% 1.13% 0.6% -0.53% T47 4.95
23 ITA Edoardo Molinari 80 (Ladbrokes: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.06% 1.33% 0.26% MC 4.64
24 ESP Jorge Campillo 80 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.06% 0.55% -0.51% T40 4.64
25 SCO Richie Ramsay 80 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.06% 0.42% -0.65% MC 4.64
26 ENG Matthew Southgate 80 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.06% 0.41% -0.65% MC 4.64
27 ITA Guido Migliozzi 80 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.06% 0.34% -0.72% T13 4.64
28 ENG Danny Willett 85 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 1.16% 1% 0.19% -0.81% MC 4.37
29 ENG Eddie Pepperell 90 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.94% 0.27% -0.67% T8 (tied w/5) 4.13 +7.9
30 SCO Ewen Ferguson 92 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 16.4/1) 1.08% 0.92% 0.46% -0.47% MC 4.05
31 IRL Padraig Harrington 95 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 16.8/1) 1.04% 0.9% 0.51% -0.39% T20 3.92
32 JPN Ryo Hisatsune 97 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 17.1/1) 1.02% 0.88% 1.5% 0.62% T13 3.84
33 DEN Niklas Norgaard Moller 107 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 18.3/1) 0.93% 0.8% 1.63% 0.84% T36 3.48
34 ESP Pablo Larrazabal 110 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.77% 0.36% -0.41% MC 3.39
35 FIN Sami Valimaki 115 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 19.3/1) 0.86% 0.74% 0.31% -0.44% MC 3.24
36 NIR Tom McKibbin 117 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 19.5/1) 0.85% 0.73% 0.3% -0.42% T32 3.19
37 MAS Gavin Green 123 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 20.2/1) 0.81% 0.69% 0.41% -0.28% T8 3.04
38 FRA Adrien Saddier 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.68% 1.57% 0.89% T13 2.99
39 RSA Jayden Trey Schaper 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.68% 0.17% -0.51% MC 2.99
40 FRA Matthieu Pavon 126 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 20.6/1) 0.79% 0.68% 1.14% 0.46% T45 2.96
41 SWE Sebastian Soderberg 126 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 20.6/1) 0.79% 0.68% 0.88% 0.21% T24 2.96
42 DEN Marcus Helligkilde 136 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 21.7/1) 0.73% 0.63% 1.75% 1.12% T13
43 SCO Calum Hill 136 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 21.7/1) 0.73% 0.63% 0.33% -0.29% 51
44 RSA Hennie Du Plessis 136 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 21.7/1) 0.73% 0.63% 0.21% -0.42% T47
45 GER Nick Bachem 140 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.71% 0.61% 0.35% -0.26% MC
46 PAR Fabrizio Zanotti 146 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 22.9/1) 0.68% 0.58% 1.5% 0.91% T24
47 ENG Richard Mansell 146 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 22.9/1) 0.68% 0.58% 0.15% -0.43% MC
48 ENG Andy Sullivan 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.57% 1.49% 0.92% MC
49 USA Johannes Veerman 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.57% 1.41% 0.84%
50 RSA Erik van Rooyen 150 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.57% 1.04% 0.48% T8
51 IND Shubhankar Sharma 150 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.57% 0.29% -0.28% MC
52 GER Marcel Schneider 166 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 25.1/1) 0.6% 0.51% 0.94% 0.42% T45
53 NZL Daniel Hillier 166 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 25.1/1) 0.6% 0.51% 0.31% -0.2% T63
54 CAN Aaron Cockerill 175 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.49% 1.45% 0.96% T63
55 RSA Wilco Nienaber 175 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 26/1) 0.57% 0.49% 0.22% -0.27% T40
56 SCO Connor Syme 191 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 27.7/1) 0.52% 0.45% 0.29% -0.15% T3
57 SWE Simon Forsstrom 200 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.43% 1.91% 1.49% T68
58 THA Kiradech Aphibarnrat 200 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.43% 0.3% -0.13% MC
59 ENG Dan Bradbury 224 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 31/1) 0.44% 0.38% 0.26% -0.12% MC
60 ESP Alejandro Del Rey 224 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 31/1) 0.44% 0.38% 0.24% -0.14% MC
61 SCO Scott Jamieson 234 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 32/1) 0.43% 0.37% 1.32% 0.95% T32
62 JPN Rikuya Hoshino 234 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 32/1) 0.43% 0.37% 0.26% -0.11% MC
63 FIN Kalle Samooja 234 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 32/1) 0.43% 0.37% 0.19% -0.18% T20
64 ENG Todd Clements 244 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 33/1) 0.41% 0.35% 0.33% -0.02% T68
65 SWE Joakim Lagergren 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.34% 1.37% 1.03% MC
66 ENG Oliver Wilson 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.34% 0.35% 0.01% T63
67 WAL Jamie Donaldson 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.34% 0.21% -0.13% T24
68 RSA Justin Walters 250 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.34% 0.18% -0.17% T32
69 ESP Miguel A Jimenez 250 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.34% 0.07% -0.27% T52
70 ESP Adria Arnaus 264 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 40.3/1) 0.38% 0.32% 0.2% -0.12% T61
71 JPN Masahiro Kawamura 273 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 41.3/1) 0.36% 0.31% 1.86% 1.55% T8
72 FRA Michael Lorenzo-Vera 273 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 41.3/1) 0.36% 0.31% 0.23% -0.08% T40
73 NED Wil Besseling 275 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.36% 0.31% 1.95% 1.64% MC
74 AUS Jason Scrivener 275 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.36% 0.31% 1.31% 0.99% T36
75 GER Hurly Long 275 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.36% 0.31% 0.2% -0.12% MC
76 USA John Catlin 283 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 42.4/1) 0.35% 0.3% 1.83% 1.52% 75
77 ENG Marcus Armitage 293 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 43.5/1) 0.34% 0.29% 1.33% 1.04% MC
78 ENG James Morrison 300 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.29% 2.51% 2.22% T36
79 NED Daan Huizing 300 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.29% 2.45% 2.17% T61
80 FRA Jeong Weon Ko 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.29% 2.07% 1.79% MC
81 FRA Clement Sordet 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.29% 1.44% 1.15% MC
82 SWE Jens Dantorp 300 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.29% 1.17% 0.89% MC
83 GER Max Schmitt 300 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.29% 0.33% 0.04% MC
84 NOR Kristian Krogh Johannessen 300 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.29% 0.25% -0.04% MC
85 ENG Dale Whitnell 303 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 44.6/1) 0.33% 0.28% 0.79% 0.51% MC
86 ESP Nacho Elvira 303 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 44.6/1) 0.33% 0.28% 0.15% -0.13% MC
87 FRA David Ravetto 307 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 45/1) 0.32% 0.28% 0.24% -0.04% MC
88 DEN Jeff Winther 325 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 47/1) 0.31% 0.26% 0.29% 0.03% MC
89 CHN Wu Ashun 332 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 47.7/1) 0.3% 0.26% 1.19% 0.94%
90 RSA JC Ritchie 342 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 48.7/1) 0.29% 0.25% 1.43% 1.18% T24
91 FIN Tapio Pulkkanen 342 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 48.7/1) 0.29% 0.25% 1.38% 1.13% T73
92 DEN John Axelsen 342 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 48.7/1) 0.29% 0.25% 0.16% -0.09% MC
93 SWE Niklas Lemke 350 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.24% 0.21% -0.04% MC
94 RSA Oliver Bekker 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.24% 0.07% -0.18% T8
95 ESP Rafael Cabrera Bello 352 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 49.8/1) 0.28% 0.24% 0.18% -0.07% MC
96 FRA Alexander Levy 391 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 53.7/1) 0.26% 0.22% 2.06% 1.84% T57
97 FRA Robin Sciot-Siegrist 400 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.21% 2.26% 2.05% MC
98 SWE Mikael Lindberg 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.21% 2.09% 1.87% MC
99 DEN Soren Kjeldsen 400 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.21% 0.24% 0.03% T13
100 SCO Marc Warren 400 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.21% 0.22% 0.01% MC
101 ENG John Parry 400 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.21% 0.22% 0% T71
102 KOR Jeunghun Wang 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.21% 0.16% -0.06% MC
103 JPN Kazuki Higa 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.21% 0.11% -0.1% T36
104 ESP Santiago Tarrio 400 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.21% 0.07% -0.14%
105 RSA Zander Lombard 460 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 60.5/1) 0.22% 0.19% 0.22% 0.03% T40
106 ARG Daniel Vancsik 479 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 62.3/1) 0.21% 0.18% 0.07% -0.1%
107 RSA Deon Germishuys 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.17% 0.25% 0.08% MC
108 POR Ricardo Santos 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.17% 0.22% 0.05% MC
109 ENG Daniel Gavins 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.17% 0.16% -0.01% MC
110 THA Jazz Janewattananond 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.17% 0.13% -0.04% MC
111 RSA Bryce Easton 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.17% 0.13% -0.05% MC
112 AUT Lukas Nemecz 528 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 66.9/1) 0.19% 0.16% 1.68% 1.52% MC
113 NED Darius Van Driel 585 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 72.1/1) 0.17% 0.15% 1.88% 1.73% MC
114 DEN Martin Leth Simonsen 671 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 79.7/1) 0.15% 0.13% 2.28% 2.15% T63
115 FRA Victor Dubuisson 705 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 82.6/1) 0.14% 0.12% 0.09% -0.03% MC
116 POR Pedro Figueiredo 750 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.11% 0.17% 0.05% MC
117 RSA Ockie Strydom 750 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.11% 0.15% 0.04% MC
118 JPN Aguri Iwasaki 750 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.11% 0.12% 0.01%
119 SUI Joel Girrbach 750 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.11% 0.07% -0.04% MC
120 ESP Borja Virto Astudillo 767 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 87.9/1) 0.13% 0.11% 0.3% 0.19% MC
121 ESP Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 1.84% 1.75% T47
122 USA Chase Hanna 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 1.56% 1.47% T68
123 ENG Garrick Porteous 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.21% 0.13% MC
124 RSA Thomas Aiken 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.19% 0.1% MC
125 GER Nicolai Von Dellingshausen 979 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 105/1) 0.1% 0.09% 1.93% 1.84% MC
126 SUI Jeremy Freiburghaus 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 1.88% 1.8% T73
127 DEN Oliver Hundeboll Jorgensen 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.09% 1.45% 1.36% MC
128 IND Manu Gandas 1000 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.14% 0.06% MC
129 USA Joshua Lee 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.14% 0.06% MC
130 BEL Nicolas Colsaerts 1000 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.09% 0% MC
131 DEN Christoffer Bring 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.08% 0% MC
132 CHN Shao Yong-liang 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.09% 0.07% -0.01%
133 SUI Nicola Gerhardsen 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.07% -0.01% MC
134 Maximilien Sturdza 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.07% -0.01% MC
135 SCO Stephen Gallacher 1000 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.06% -0.02% T57
136 ENG David Horsey 1500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.06% 0.11% 0.05% MC
137 FRA Gary Stal 1500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.06% 0.1% 0.04%
138 SUI Ronan Kleu 1500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.06% 0.07% 0.02% MC
139 USA Gunner Wiebe 2000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.32% 0.27% MC
140 IRL John Murphy 2000 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 0.05% 0.04% 0.23% 0.19% T63
141 ISL Gudmundur Kristjansson 2000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.11% 0.07% MC
142 SUI Max Schliesing 2000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.07% 0.03% MC
143 KOR Yeongsu Kim 2500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% 0.11% 0.07% MC
144 FRA Joel Stalter 2500 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 0.04% 0.03% 0.1% 0.06% MC
145 SUI Marco Iten 2500 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 0.04% 0.03% 0.07% 0.04% MC
146 SUI Robert Foley 2500 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 0.04% 0.03% 0.07% 0.04% MC
147 SUI Cedric Gugler 2500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% 0.07% 0.04% T57
148 ENG David Howell 4000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.02% 0.02% 0.09% 0.07% MC
149 CHN Ma Chengyao 5000 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 0.02% 0.02% 0.1% 0.08% MC
150 CHN Hao Tong Li 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
151 RSA Danie van Tonder 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
152 ESP Pablo Martin Benavides 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
153 ITA Renato Paratore 0% 0% 0% 0% T13
154 DEN Oliver Suhr 0% 0% 0% 0% T24
155 AUS Blake Windred 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
156 SUI Luca Galliano 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
157 RSA Tristen Strydom 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
158 GER Matthias Schmid 0% 0% 0% 0% T24
159 GER Frederik Schott 0% 0% 0% 0% T52
160 Loïc Naas 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
161 Benjamin Purshouse 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 7.3 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 2.6 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Betfair Exchange 1 @ 1/1 8.6% 11%
2 Skybet 8 @ 1/5 48.7% 13.4%
3 William Hill 8 @ 1/5 50.7% 15%
4 BoyleSports 8 @ 1/5 54.1% 17.5%
5 Betfair Sportsbook 7 @ 1/5 52.4% 25.8%
6 Paddy Power 7 @ 1/5 52.4% 25.8%
7 Star Sports 7 @ 1/5 53.3% 26.5%
8 LiveScore Bet 5 @ 1/4 44.9% 27.9%
9 Betway 7 @ 1/5 56.6% 29.3%
10 Betfred 5 @ 1/4 47% 29.8%
11 Bet Victor 5 @ 1/4 47.1% 29.8%
12 Parimatch 5 @ 1/4 47.1% 29.8%
13 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 47.9% 30.5%
14 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 47.2% 32.4%
15 Ladbrokes 7 @ 1/5 61% 32.9%
16 Coral 7 @ 1/5 61% 32.9%
17 VBet 5 @ 1/4 51.4% 33.6%
18 QuinnBet 6 @ 1/5 53.2% 37.8%
19 BetGoodwin 6 @ 1/5 53.2% 37.8%
20 Sporting Index 5 @ 1/4 57.3% 38.9%
21 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 55.8% 40.2%
22 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 56.2% 40.5%
23 BetUK 6 @ 1/5 56.2% 40.5%