Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 10.0 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: -0.8 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.6 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 23.9

Total Profit: -76.2

Magical Kenya Open

09/03/2023 - 12/03/2023

Up to date as of: one year ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 FRA Antoine Rozner 18 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/4) 5.26% 4.41% 2.19% -2.22% MC
2 SCO Robert MacIntyre 25 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 5.5/1) 3.85% 3.22% 4.22% 1% T7 14.26
3 ESP Adrian Otaegui 25 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/4) 3.85% 3.22% 2.97% -0.26% T30
4 ESP Adria Arnaus 25 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/4) 3.85% 3.22% 1.02% -2.2% T30
5 CHN Wu Ashun 33 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 2.94% 2.46% 2.42% -0.05% MC 10.91
6 FRA Julien Brun 33 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/4) 2.94% 2.46% 0.93% -1.53% T7
7 ESP Jorge Campillo 40 (888sport: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 2.04% 0.74% -1.3% 1
8 RSA Jayden Trey Schaper 45 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/4) 2.17% 1.82% 2.43% 0.61% T7 8.06
9 SWE Marcus Kinhult 45 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/4) 2.17% 1.82% 1.12% -0.7% T65
10 RSA Oliver Bekker 47 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 8.5/1) 2.08% 1.75% 0.66% -1.09% T55
11 JPN Ryo Hisatsune 50 (Paddy Power: 7 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.64% 1.35% -0.29% T3
12 SCO Connor Syme 50 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.64% 1.06% -0.58% T55
13 ITA Edoardo Molinari 50 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.64% 1.01% -0.63% T20
14 ENG Matthew Jordan 50 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.64% 0.85% -0.79% T35
15 JPN Rikuya Hoshino 50 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.64% 0.85% -0.79% MC
16 RSA Hennie Du Plessis 50 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.64% 0.74% -0.91% MC
17 SCO Richie Ramsay 50 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.64% 0.72% -0.93%
18 SCO Ewen Ferguson 55 (Ladbrokes: 7 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.5% 1.16% -0.34% T47
19 IND Shubhankar Sharma 57 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 11.7/1) 1.72% 1.44% 0.99% -0.45% MC
20 FRA Romain Langasque 62 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 12.4/1) 1.59% 1.33% 1.02% -0.31% T25
21 JPN Masahiro Kawamura 62 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 12.4/1) 1.59% 1.33% 0.88% -0.45% 2
22 ESP Rafael Cabrera Bello 62 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 12.4/1) 1.59% 1.33% 0.79% -0.54% T20
23 ENG Laurie Canter 66 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.25% 1.5% 0.25% WD 5.54
24 SCO Grant Forrest 66 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.25% 1.2% -0.05% T11 5.54
25 ESP Angel Hidalgo Portillo 66 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.25% 1.05% -0.21% T75
26 NIR Tom McKibbin 66 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.25% 0.97% -0.28% T25
27 ENG Andrew Johnston 66 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.25% 0.74% -0.51%
28 SCO Calum Hill 66 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.25% 0.52% -0.73% T20
29 MAS Gavin Green 67 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 13.1/1) 1.47% 1.23% 1.51% 0.27% T15 5.46
30 DEN Niklas Norgaard Moller 67 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 13.1/1) 1.47% 1.23% 1.01% -0.23% T40
31 GER Maximilian Kieffer 70 (Ladbrokes: 7 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.18% 0.66% -0.52% T20
32 ITA Renato Paratore 70 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/4) 1.41% 1.18% 0.63% -0.55% T55
33 USA Johannes Veerman 72 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 13.8/1) 1.37% 1.15% 0.78% -0.37% T15
34 GER Hurly Long 80 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 1.03% 0.92% -0.12% T30 4.58
35 RSA Louis de Jager 80 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/4) 1.23% 1.03% 0.92% -0.12% T35 4.58
36 RSA Jaco Prinsloo 80 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 1.03% 0.76% -0.28% 73
37 ENG Bradley Bawden 80 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.03% 0.53% -0.51%
38 USA John Catlin 80 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/4) 1.23% 1.03% 0.49% -0.55% T15
39 SWE Simon Forsstrom 90 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.92% 0.96% 0.04% T60 4.08
40 RSA Brandon Stone 90 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 16.2/1) 1.1% 0.92% 0.94% 0.02% MC 4.08
41 AUT Lukas Nemecz 100 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.83% 1.46% 0.63% T5 (tied w/2) 3.68 +23.9
42 SWE Joakim Lagergren 100 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.83% 1.23% 0.4% T65 3.68
43 FRA Adrien Saddier 100 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.83% 0.83% 0% T47 3.68
44 FRA Julien Guerrier 100 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.83% 0.73% -0.1% MC 3.68
45 FRA Jeong Weon Ko 100 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.83% 0.7% -0.13% MC 3.68
46 NOR Kristian Krogh Johannessen 100 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.83% 0.64% -0.18% MC
47 RSA Darren Fichardt 100 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.83% 0.58% -0.25%
48 ARG Daniel Vancsik 100 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.83% 0.27% -0.56%
49 ESP Santiago Tarrio 100 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.83% 0.27% -0.56%
50 RSA Justin Harding 115 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 19.3/1) 0.86% 0.72% 0.35% -0.38% T40
51 ESP Alfredo Garcia-Heredia 125 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.67% 0.81% 0.14% MC 2.95
52 FRA Frederic LaCroix 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.67% 0.65% -0.02% MC 2.95
53 CAN Aaron Cockerill 125 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.67% 0.55% -0.11% MC 2.95
54 RSA Justin Walters 125 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.67% 0.52% -0.14% T40 2.95
55 JPN Aguri Iwasaki 125 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.67% 0.42% -0.24% MC
56 GER Max Schmitt 125 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.67% 0.27% -0.4% T65
57 ITA Francesco Laporta 130 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.76% 0.64% 0.52% -0.12% T60 2.84
58 RSA Wilco Nienaber 133 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 21.4/1) 0.75% 0.63% 0.46% -0.17% T25
59 SCO Craig Howie 140 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.71% 0.59% 0.51% -0.09% T11
60 ENG Marcus Armitage 143 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 22.5/1) 0.69% 0.58% 0.64% 0.05% T35
61 NED Wil Besseling 143 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 22.5/1) 0.69% 0.58% 0.6% 0.02% 78
62 ENG Daniel A Brown 150 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.55% 0.97% 0.42% T52
63 ESP Alejandro Canizares 150 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.55% 0.87% 0.32% T25
64 ESP Alejandro Del Rey 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.55% 0.85% 0.29% T30
65 FRA David Ravetto 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.55% 0.75% 0.2% MC
66 RSA Jacques Kruyswijk 150 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.55% 0.69% 0.13% MC
67 RSA JC Ritchie 150 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.55% 0.52% -0.04% T11
68 ENG Matthew Baldwin 150 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.55% 0.51% -0.05% T60
69 NED Daan Huizing 160 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.62% 0.52% 0.54% 0.02%
70 POR Ricardo Gouveia 200 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.42% 1% 0.59% MC
71 ENG Andrew Wilson 200 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.42% 0.76% 0.34% MC
72 FRA Tom Vaillant 200 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.42% 0.63% 0.22% T35
73 ENG Ashley Chesters 200 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.42% 0.56% 0.14% T7
74 ENG Garrick Porteous 200 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.42% 0.46% 0.05% MC
75 RSA Shaun Norris 211 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 29.7/1) 0.47% 0.4% 0.47% 0.07% T20
76 GER Nick Bachem 225 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.44% 0.37% 0.5% 0.13% T52
77 RSA Casey Jarvis 239 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 32.5/1) 0.42% 0.35% 0.86% 0.51% T25
78 NED Darius Van Driel 250 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.33% 0.6% 0.27% T11
79 ENG Todd Clements 250 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.33% 0.54% 0.2% 74
80 RSA Thomas Aiken 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.33% 0.51% 0.18% T65
81 IND Manu Gandas 250 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.33% 0.46% 0.12% T65
82 ENG Oliver Wilson 250 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.33% 0.45% 0.12% MC
83 DEN Martin Leth Simonsen 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.33% 0.42% 0.08% MC
84 FRA Alexander Levy 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.33% 0.4% 0.07% MC
85 RSA Bryce Easton 250 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.33% 0.35% 0.02% T30
86 ENG Tom Lewis 259 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 39.8/1) 0.38% 0.32% 0.61% 0.29% MC
87 RSA Dylan Mostert 268 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 40.8/1) 0.37% 0.31% 0.64% 0.33% T52
88 GER Nicolai Von Dellingshausen 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.28% 0.69% 0.41% T40
89 SCO Stephen Gallacher 300 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.28% 0.62% 0.34% MC
90 ESP Nacho Elvira 300 (Paddy Power: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.28% 0.58% 0.3% T40
91 POR Ricardo Santos 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.28% 0.52% 0.24% T40
92 ENG James Morrison 300 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.28% 0.51% 0.23% T75
93 SWE Jens Fahrbring 300 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.28% 0.49% 0.21% MC
94 SWE Henric Sturehed 350 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.24% 0.38% 0.14% MC
95 ESP Borja Virto Astudillo 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.24% 0.27% 0.03% T5
96 ENG Tom Murray 400 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.21% 1.15% 0.94% MC
97 FRA Joel Stalter 400 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.21% 0.71% 0.5% MC
98 WAL Rhys Enoch 400 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.21% 0.63% 0.42% MC
99 RSA Deon Germishuys 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.21% 0.63% 0.42% T55
100 DEN Lucas Bjerregaard 400 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.21% 0.5% 0.29% MC
101 FRA Robin Sciot-Siegrist 400 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.21% 0.49% 0.28% T65
102 DEN John Axelsen 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.21% 0.43% 0.22% MC
103 WAL Oliver Farr 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.21% 0.37% 0.16% MC
104 SWE Niklas Lemke 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.21% 0.37% 0.16% T47
105 ESP Javier Sainz 400 (Ladbrokes: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.21% 0.26% 0.05% T60
106 ITA Lorenzo Gagli 400 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.21% 0.2% 0% MC
107 IRL Gary Hurley 500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.17% 0.53% 0.37% MC
108 ENG Sam Hutsby 500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.17% 0.48% 0.31% MC
109 DEN Christoffer Bring 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.17% 0.4% 0.24% MC
110 ISL Gudmundur Kristjansson 500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.17% 0.36% 0.19% MC
111 RSA Tristen Strydom 500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.17% 0.28% 0.12% WD
112 BEL Christopher Mivis 500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.17% 0.28% 0.12% 72
113 SCO Sandy Scott 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.17% 0.28% 0.11% MC
114 ENG Steven Brown 527 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 66.8/1) 0.19% 0.16% 0.37% 0.21% MC
115 FRA Pierre Pineau 575 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 71.2/1) 0.17% 0.15% 0.84% 0.69% T15
116 SUI Jeremy Freiburghaus 600 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.14% 0.49% 0.35% T40
117 FRA Gary Stal 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.14% 0.43% 0.29% 77
118 GER Jannik De Bruyn 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.14% 0.27% 0.13% T15
119 ESP Emilio Cuartero Blanco 600 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.14% 0.26% 0.12% T55
120 CHN Liu Yanwei 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.11% 0.47% 0.36% MC
121 RSA Keenan Davidse 750 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.11% 0.27% 0.16% MC
122 SWE Mikael Lundberg 750 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.11% 0.27% 0.15% MC
123 ZIM Benjamin Follett-Smith 750 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.11% 0.27% 0.15% MC
124 POL Mateusz Gradecki 800 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.12% 0.1% 0.41% 0.31% MC
125 ENG Richard McEvoy 800 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.12% 0.1% 0.41% 0.31% MC
126 ENG Oliver Fisher 800 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.12% 0.1% 0.29% 0.19% MC
127 SCO Liam Johnston 806 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 91.1/1) 0.12% 0.1% 1.11% 1.01% MC
128 ENG Toby Tree 806 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 91.1/1) 0.12% 0.1% 0.51% 0.4% T60
129 USA Joshua Lee 806 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 91.1/1) 0.12% 0.1% 0.37% 0.26% T47
130 AUS Blake Windred 902 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 98.9/1) 0.11% 0.09% 0.38% 0.29% MC
131 USA Gunner Wiebe 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% 0.45% 0.37% MC
132 POR Pedro Figueiredo 1000 (BoyleSports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.44% 0.35% MC
133 IRL John Murphy 1000 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% 0.3% 0.22% MC
134 CHN Ma Chengyao 1500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.06% 0.3% 0.25% MC
135 KEN Jaydeep Singh Sandhu 1500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.06% 0.27% 0.21% MC
136 KEN Adel Balala 1500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.06% 0.27% 0.21% MC
137 KEN Njoroge Njonge Kibugu 1500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.06% 0.27% 0.21% MC
138 KEN John Lejirma 1500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.06% 0.27% 0.21% MC
139 SWE Tobias Eden 2000 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.39% 0.35% MC
140 ENG David Howell 2000 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.32% 0.28% MC
141 KEN Greg Snow 2000 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.27% 0.22% MC
142 KEN Daniel Nduva 2000 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.27% 0.22% MC
143 NOR Elias Bertheussen 2000 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.24% 0.2% MC
144 KEN Dismas Indiza 2500 (Betway: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% 0.27% 0.23% MC
145 KEN Justus Madoya 2500 (Betway: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% 0.27% 0.23% MC
146 UGA Ronald Rugumayo 2500 (Betway: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% 0.27% 0.23% MC
147 KEN Dennis Maara 2500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% 0.27% 0.23% MC
148 GER Marcel Siem 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
149 RSA Danie van Tonder 0% 0% 0% 0% T35
150 ESP Pablo Martin Benavides 0% 0% 0% 0% T3
151 GER Dennis Meyerrose 0% 0% 0% 0% T47
152 KEN Simon Ngigi 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
153 GER Alexander Knappe 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
154 ZIM Robson Chinhoi 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
155 KEN C John Wangai 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
156 ENG Pavan Sagoo 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
157 Mutahi Kibugu 0% 0% 0% 0% T65
158 Samuel Njoroge 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
159 Visitor Mapwanya 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
160 Mike Kisia 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
161 Daniel Kiragu 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 10.0 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: -0.8 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Skybet 6 @ 1/4 48.4% 17.9%
2 LiveScore Bet 5 @ 1/4 35.4% 19.4%
3 Betway 5 @ 1/4 35.4% 19.4%
4 Betfair Exchange 1 @ 1/1 18.5% 20.9%
5 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 38% 21.7%
6 Betfred 5 @ 1/4 40.3% 23.7%
7 Bet Victor 5 @ 1/4 43.7% 26.7%
8 Parimatch 5 @ 1/4 43.7% 26.7%
9 Paddy Power 7 @ 1/5 55.9% 28.6%
10 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 48.1% 30.6%
11 Ladbrokes 7 @ 1/5 60.3% 32.2%
12 Coral 7 @ 1/5 60.3% 32.2%
13 888Sport 5 @ 1/4 51.3% 33.5%
14 VBet 5 @ 1/4 52.2% 34.3%
15 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 52.3% 36.9%
16 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 53.2% 37.7%
17 Sporting Index 5 @ 1/4 58.7% 39.9%
18 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 58.1% 42.1%
19 BetUK 6 @ 1/5 58.1% 42.1%
20 Betfair Sportsbook 7 @ 1/5 104.1% 68.5%