Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 19.5 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 7.0 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.5 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 62.6

Total Profit: -37.5

Australian Open

01/12/2023 - 04/12/2023

Up to date as of: 5 months ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 AUS Minwoo Lee 5 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 1.8/1) 16.67% 13.69% 5.05% -8.64% 3
2 AUS Cameron Smith 7 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 2.2/1) 12.5% 10.27% 1.81% -8.46% T17
3 AUS Cameron Davis 9 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 2.7/1) 10% 8.21% 4.01% -4.21% T42
4 AUS Adam Scott 12 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 3.3/1) 7.69% 6.32% 2.68% -3.64% T4
5 CHI Joaquin Niemann 14.6 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 3.7/1) 6.41% 5.27% 1.9% -3.36% 1
6 AUS Marc Leishman 21 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 4.8/1) 4.55% 3.73% 3.41% -0.33% T27 16.6
7 POL Adrian Meronk 21 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 4.8/1) 4.55% 3.73% 2.31% -1.43% T8
8 AUS Lucas Herbert 21 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 4.8/1) 4.55% 3.73% 1.88% -1.85% 7
9 JPN Ryo Hisatsune 28 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 3.45% 2.83% 2.83% 0% T8 12.6
10 AUS Matt Jones 33 (888sport: 5 @ 1/4) 2.94% 2.42% 0.28% -2.13% T33
11 SCO Robert MacIntyre 35 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 2.78% 2.28% 1.63% -0.66% MC
12 AUS David Micheluzzi 39 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 7.5/1) 2.5% 2.05% 0.82% -1.23% MC
13 JPN Rikuya Hoshino 40 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 2.44% 2% 1.52% -0.48% 2 8.91 +40.1
14 USA Patrick Rodgers 50 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.61% 1.48% -0.13% 16 7.17
15 USA Nick Hardy 60 (888sport: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.35% 1.8% 0.46% MC 5.99
16 SCO Connor Syme 62 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 12.4/1) 1.59% 1.3% 1.55% 0.24% T17 5.8
17 SCO Calum Hill 80 (William Hill: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.01% 1.87% 0.86% T51 4.51
18 NIR Tom McKibbin 80 (William Hill: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.01% 1.38% 0.37% T51 4.51
19 NZL Daniel Hillier 85 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 15.5/1) 1.16% 0.96% 2.13% 1.18% MC 4.25
20 ENG Richard Mansell 85 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 15.5/1) 1.16% 0.96% 0.98% 0.02% T21 4.25
21 AUS Aaron Baddeley 87 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 15.8/1) 1.14% 0.93% 0.99% 0.05% T21 4.15
22 ENG Alex Fitzpatrick 90 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 16.2/1) 1.1% 0.9% 2.31% 1.41% T8 4.02
23 ENG Laurie Canter 97 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 17.1/1) 1.02% 0.84% 1.3% 0.46% T4 (tied w/3) 3.73 +22.5
24 AUS Jason Scrivener 97 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 17.1/1) 1.02% 0.84% 1.18% 0.34% T8 3.73
25 NZL Ben Campbell 97 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 17.1/1) 1.02% 0.84% 0.28% -0.56% MC
26 USA Sean Crocker 105 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 18.1/1) 0.94% 0.77% 1.08% 0.31% 60 3.45
27 AUS Travis Smyth 105 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 18.1/1) 0.94% 0.77% 0.3% -0.48% T51 3.45
28 ESP Rafael Cabrera Bello 123 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 20.2/1) 0.81% 0.66% 0.85% 0.18% 67 2.95
29 SCO Grant Forrest 133 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 21.4/1) 0.75% 0.61% 1.29% 0.68% T4
30 ENG Eddie Pepperell 136 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 21.7/1) 0.73% 0.6% 1.06% 0.46% MC
31 JPN Kazuki Higa 150 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.54% 0.6% 0.05% MC
32 AUS Harrison Crowe 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.54% 0.29% -0.25% MC
33 USA Julian Suri 175 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.47% 0.37% -0.1% T8
34 ESP Alfredo Garcia-Heredia 200 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.41% 0.79% 0.38% T48
35 AUT Lukas Nemecz 200 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.41% 0.66% 0.26% MC
36 AUS Haydn Barron 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.41% 0.48% 0.07% MC
37 AUS Cameron John 200 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.41% 0.44% 0.03% MC
38 VEN Jhonattan Vegas 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.41% 0.31% -0.09% T17
39 HKG Taichi Kho 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.41% 0.3% -0.11% MC
40 JPN Yuto Katsuragawa 250 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.33% 1.28% 0.95% T8
41 FRA Alexander Levy 250 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.33% 0.62% 0.3% T8
42 AUS John Lyras 250 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.33% 0.44% 0.11% MC
43 AUS Brett Coletta 250 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.33% 0.42% 0.09% MC
44 AUS Elvis Smylie 250 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.33% 0.38% 0.05% T27
45 AUS Jake McLeod 250 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.33% 0.31% -0.01% T21
46 AUS Zach Murray 250 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.33% 0.31% -0.01% MC
47 NZL Kazuma Kobori 250 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.33% 0.31% -0.01% MC
48 AUS Jack Thompson 254 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 39.2/1) 0.39% 0.32% 0.44% 0.12% MC
49 USA John Catlin 300 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.27% 0.91% 0.64% T33
50 NZL Josh Geary 300 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.27% 0.37% 0.1% MC
51 DEN John Axelsen 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.23% 0.94% 0.71% MC
52 AUS Ben Eccles 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.23% 0.62% 0.38% MC
53 AUS Hayden Hopewell 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.23% 0.57% 0.34% T33
54 ENG Frank Kennedy 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.23% 0.55% 0.32% T42
55 AUS Sam Brazel 350 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.23% 0.44% 0.21% T8
56 IRL Conor Purcell 350 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.23% 0.41% 0.17% T33
57 AUS Connor McKinney 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.23% 0.37% 0.14% T48
58 AUS Justin Warren 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.23% 0.37% 0.14% MC
59 FRA Pierre Pineau 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.23% 0.3% 0.07% T63
60 ESP Joel Moscatel Nachshon 400 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.2% 1.77% 1.57% T33
61 DEN Soren Kjeldsen 400 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.2% 0.71% 0.5% T42
62 BEL Nicolas Colsaerts 400 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.2% 0.47% 0.27% MC
63 AUS Rhein Gibson 400 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.2% 0.31% 0.11% T61
64 AUS Anthony Quayle 400 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.2% 0.31% 0.11% MC
65 AUS Nathan Barbieri 400 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.2% 0.31% 0.11% MC
66 SCO Michael Hendry 431 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 57.7/1) 0.23% 0.19% 0.85% 0.66% MC
67 AUS Jordan Zunic 500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.8% 0.64% MC
68 AUS Matthew Griffin 500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.44% 0.28% MC
69 AUS Austin Bautista 500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.42% 0.26% MC
70 AUS Geoff Ogilvy 500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.37% 0.21% MC
71 AUS Lawry Flynn 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.37% 0.21% T58
72 NZL Nick Voke 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.36% 0.2% MC
73 ENG Steven Brown 500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.31% 0.15% T51
74 AUS Michael Sim 500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.31% 0.15% MC
75 AUS Jediah Morgan 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.31% 0.15% 65
76 AUS Andrew Dodt 556 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 69.5/1) 0.18% 0.15% 0.37% 0.23% T51
77 AUS Daniel Gale 600 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.14% 0.29% 0.15% MC
78 ISL Haraldur Magnus 750 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.11% 0.57% 0.46% MC
79 AUS Josh Armstrong 750 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.11% 0.42% 0.31% MC
80 AUS Jack Murdoch 750 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.11% 0.37% 0.26% MC
81 WAL Oliver Farr 750 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.11% 0.35% 0.24% T42
82 AUS Josh Younger 750 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.11% 0.31% 0.21% MC
83 Jak Carter 750 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.11% 0.31% 0.21% T42
84 AUS Brett Rumford 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.57% 0.49% MC
85 ENG David Horsey 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.56% 0.48% T33
86 IRL Mark Power 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.53% 0.45% T42
87 AUS James Marchesani 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.44% 0.36% MC
88 AUS Andrew Kelly 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.44% 0.36% MC
89 AUS Andrew Martin 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.42% 0.33% MC
90 AUS Adam Bland 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.41% 0.32% T27
91 ITA Pietro Bovari 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.36% 0.28% MC
92 GER Marc Hammer 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.32% 0.24% MC
93 AUS Jarryd Felton 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.31% 0.23% MC
94 NED Lars Van Meijel 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.31% 0.23% T33
95 Sam Jones 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.31% 0.23% T48
96 USA Nicolo Galletti 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.28% 0.2% T27
97 USA Gunner Wiebe 1000 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.59% 0.51% MC
98 AUS Scott Strange 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.57% 0.49% T63
99 Lachlan Barker 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.57% 0.49% MC
100 ENG Richard McEvoy 1000 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.47% 0.39% MC
101 AUS Andrew Campbell 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.42% 0.34% MC
102 AUS Kyle Michel 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.42% 0.34% T51
103 AUS Blake Windred 1000 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.38% 0.3% MC
104 USA Michael Block 1000 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.37% 0.29% T27
105 USA Derek Ackerman 1000 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% 0.32% 0.24% MC
106 AUS Matthew Millar 1000 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.31% 0.23% MC
107 AUS Aaron Pike 1000 (Betfair : 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.31% 0.23% MC
108 AUS Christopher Wood 1000 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.31% 0.23% MC
109 AUS Simon Hawkes 1000 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.31% 0.23% T61
110 AUS Tom Power Horan 1000 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% 0.31% 0.23% 66
111 NZL Denzel Ieremia 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.31% 0.23% MC
112 AUS Louis Dobbelaar 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.31% 0.23% MC
113 AUS Andre Lautee 1000 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.31% 0.23% MC
114 Darcy Brereton 1000 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.31% 0.23% T33
115 Joshua Greer 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.31% 0.23% MC
116 Angel Ayora 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.29% 0.2% T21
117 AUS Matias Sanchez 1000 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.28% 0.2% T33
118 AUS Jack Buchanan 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.28% 0.2% MC
119 USA Jordan Gumberg 1000 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.27% 0.19% MC
120 SCO Ewen Ferguson 1500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.05% 1.87% 1.82%
121 Sungjin Yeo 1500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.05% 0.42% 0.37% MC
122 AUS Lincoln Tighe 1500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.05% 0.31% 0.26% MC
123 AUS Brady Watt 1500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.05% 0.31% 0.26% MC
124 AUS Tim Hart 1500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.05% 0.31% 0.26% MC
125 AUS Peter Wilson 1500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.05% 0.31% 0.26% MC
126 AUS Brett Rankin 1500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.05% 0.31% 0.26% MC
127 USA Chris Crabtree 1500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.05% 0.31% 0.26% MC
128 AUS Shae Wools-Cobb 1500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.05% 0.31% 0.26% T51
129 AUS Kade McBride 1500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.05% 0.31% 0.26% T27
130 AUS Ben Wharton 1500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.05% 0.31% 0.26% MC
131 AUS Jay Mackenzie 1500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.05% 0.31% 0.26% MC
132 KOR Changgi Lee 1500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.05% 0.31% 0.26% MC
133 Kit Bittle 1500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.05% 0.31% 0.26% T58
134 Kerry Mountcastle 1500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.05% 0.31% 0.26% MC
135 NZL Luke Toomey 1500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.05% 0.28% 0.23% MC
136 AUS John Senden 2000 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.05% 0.04% 0.31% 0.27% MC
137 AUS Peter Lonard 2000 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.05% 0.04% 0.31% 0.27% MC
138 AUS Jack Munro 2500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.04% 0.03% 0.31% 0.28% MC
139 Toby Walker 3000 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.03% 0.03% 0.31% 0.29% MC
140 Rhys Thomas 3000 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.03% 0.03% 0.31% 0.29% MC
141 BRA Rafael Becker 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
142 AUS Darren Beck 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
143 USA Richard Hoey 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
144 AUS Anthony Choat 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
145 AUS Corey Lamb 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
146 AUS William Bayliss 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
147 GER Philipp Katich 0% 0% 0% 0% T17
148 AUS Jeffrey Guan 0% 0% 0% 0% T21
149 Jake Hughes 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
150 Ben Ferguson(June1998) 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
151 Jasper Stubbs 0% 0% 0% 0% T21
152 Taishi Moto 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
153 Phoenix Campbell 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
154 Zack Swanwick 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
155 Connor McDade 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 19.5 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 7.0 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Betfair Exchange 1 @ 1/1 25.5% 18.7%
2 888Sport 5 @ 1/4 49.9% 32.8%
3 Ladbrokes 5 @ 1/4 50.1% 33%
4 Skybet 6 @ 1/5 47.8% 33.3%
5 Betfair Sportsbook 6 @ 1/5 49.1% 34.5%
6 Paddy Power 6 @ 1/5 49.1% 34.5%
7 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 49.4% 34.8%
8 BetUK 6 @ 1/5 49.4% 34.8%
9 BetMGM UK 6 @ 1/5 49.4% 34.8%
10 Coral 6 @ 1/5 49.9% 35.2%
11 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 51.4% 36.5%
12 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 54.5% 36.9%
13 Betway 6 @ 1/5 52.4% 37.4%
14 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 62.8% 46.8%
15 Sporting Index 6 @ 1/5 62.8% 46.8%